Simulation-based estimation

In this paper, I present a number of leading examples in the empirical literature that use simulation-based estimation methods. For each example, I describe the model, why simulation is needed, and how to simulate the relevant object. There is a section on simulation methods and another on simulations-based estimation methods. The paper concludes by considering the significance of each of the examples discussed a commenting on potential future areas of interest.

Long-term care and family bargaining

We present a structural model of how families decide who should care for elderly parents. We use data from the National Long-Term Care Survey to estimate and test the parameters of the model. Then we use the parameter estimates to simulate the effects of the existing long-term trends in terms of the common but untested explanations for them. Finally, we simulate the effects of alternative family bargaining rules on individual utility to measure the sensitivity of our results to the family decision-making assumptions we make.

Formal home health care, informal care, and family decision making

We use the 1993 wave of the Assets and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) data set to estimate a game-theoretic model of families' decisions concerning the provision of informal and formal care for elderly individuals. The outcome is the Nash equilibrium where each family member jointly determines her consumption, transfers for formal care, and allocation of time to informal care, market work, and leisure. We use the estimates to decompose the effects of adult children's opportunity costs, quality of care, and caregiving burden on their propensities to provide informal care. We also simulate the effects of a broad range of policies of current interest. © (2009) by the Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

Influence of jet inclination on structural loading in an experimentally simulated microburst

Steady and pulsed flow stationary impinging jets have been employed to simulate the wind field produced by a thunderstorm microburst. The effect on the low level wind field due to jet inclination with respect to the impingement surface has been studied. A single point velocity time history has been compared to the full-scale Andrews AFB microburst for model validation. It was found that for steady flow, jet inclination increased the radial extent of high winds but did not increase the magnitude of these winds when compared to the perpendicular impingement case. It was found that for inclined pulsed flow the design wind conditions could increase compared to perpendicular impingement. It was found that the location of peak winds was affected by varying the outlet conditions.

Effect of elemental composition and size on electron confinement in self-assembled SiC quantum dots : a combinatorial approach

A high level of control over quantum dot (QD) properties such as size and composition during fabrication is required to precisely tune the eventual electronic properties of the QD. Nanoscale synthesis efforts and theoretical studies of electronic properties are traditionally treated quite separately. In this paper, a combinatorial approach has been taken to relate the process synthesis parameters and the electron confinement properties of the QDs. First, hybrid numerical calculations with different influx parameters for Si1-x Cx QDs were carried out to simulate the changes in carbon content x and size. Second, the ionization energy theory was applied to understand the electronic properties of Si1-x Cx QDs. Third, stoichiometric (x=0.5) silicon carbide QDs were grown by means of inductively coupled plasma-assisted rf magnetron sputtering. Finally, the effect of QD size and elemental composition were then incorporated in the ionization energy theory to explain the evolution of the Si1-x Cx photoluminescence spectra. These results are important for the development of deterministic synthesis approaches of self-assembled nanoscale quantum confinement structures.

Multi-scale hybrid numerical simulation of the growth of high-aspect-ratio nanostructures

Recently, a variety high-aspect-ratio nanostructures have been grown and profiled for various applications ranging from field emission transistors to gene/drug delivery devices. However, fabricating and processing arrays of these structures and determining how changing certain physical parameters affects the final outcome is quite challenging. We have developed several modules that can be used to simulate the processes of various physical vapour deposition systems from precursor interaction in the gas phase to gas-surface interactions and surface processes. In this paper, multi-scale hybrid numerical simulations are used to study how low-temperature non-equilibrium plasmas can be employed in the processing of high-aspect-ratio structures such that the resulting nanostructures have properties suitable for their eventual device application. We show that whilst using plasma techniques is beneficial in many nanofabrication processes, it is especially useful in making dense arrays of high-aspect-ratio nanostructures.

Workflow patterns as a means to model task succession in games – a preliminary case study

Over about the last decade, people involved in game development have noted the need for more formal models and tools to support the design phase of games. It is argued that the present lack of such formal tools is currently hindering knowledge transfer among designers. Formal visual languages, on the other hand, can help to more effectively express, abstract and communicate game design concepts. Moreover, formal tools can assist in the prototyping phase, allowing designers to reason about and simulate game mechanics on an abstract level. In this paper we present an initial investigation into whether workflow patterns – which have already proven to be effective for modeling business processes – are a suitable way to model task succession in games. Our preliminary results suggest that workflow patterns show promise in this regard but some limitations, especially in regard to time constraints, currently restrict their potential.

A novel approach for numerical simulation of plant tissue shrinkage during drying

Drying is a key processing techniques used in food engineering which demands continual developments on advanced analysis techniques in order to optimize the product and the process. In this regard, plant based materials are a frequent subject of interest where microstructural studies can provide a clearer understanding on the fundamental physical mechanisms involved. In this context, considering numerous challenges of using conventional numerical grid-based modelling techniques, a meshfree particle based model was developed to simulate extreme deformations of plant microstructure during drying. The proposed technique is based on a particle based meshfree method: Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) and a Discrete Element Method (DEM). A tissue model was developed by aggrading individual cells modelled with SPH-DEM coupled approach by initializing the cells as hexagons and aggregating them to form a tissue. The model also involves a middle lamella resembling real tissues. Using the model, different dried tissue states were simulated with different moisture content, the turgor pressure, and cell wall contraction effects. Compared to the state of the art grid-based microscale plant tissue drying models, the proposed model is capable of simulating plant tissues at lower moisture contents which results in excessive shrinkage and cell wall wrinkling. Model predictions were compared with experimental findings and a fairly good agreement was observed both qualitatively and quantitatively.

Stress relaxation analysis of single chondrocytes using porohyperelastic model based on AFM experiments

The aim of this study is to investigate the stress relaxation behavior of single chondrocytes using the Porohyperelastic (PHE) model and inverse Finite Element Analysis (FEA). Firstly, based on Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) technique, we have found that the chondrocytes exhibited stress relaxation behavior. We explored the mechanism of this stress relaxation behavior and concluded that the intracellular fluid exuding out from the cells during deformation plays the most important role in the stress relaxation. Next, we have applied the inverse FEA technique to determine necessary material parameters for PHE model to simulate this stress relaxation behavior as this model is proven capable of capturing the non-linear behavior and the fluid-solid interaction during the stress relaxation of the single chondrocytes. It is observed that this PHE model can precisely capture the stress relaxation behavior of single chondrocytes and would be a suitable model for cell biomechanics.

Determination of strain-rate-dependent mechanical behavior of living and fixed osteocytes and chondrocytes using atomic force microscopy and inverse finite element analysis

The aim of this paper is to determine the strain-rate-dependent mechanical behavior of living and fixed osteocytes and chondrocytes, in vitro. Firstly, Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) was used to obtain the force-indentation curves of these single cells at four different strain-rates. These results were then employed in inverse finite element analysis (FEA) using Modified Standard neo-Hookean Solid (MSnHS) idealization of these cells to determine their mechanical properties. In addition, a FEA model with a newly developed spring element was employed to accurately simulate AFM evaluation in this study. We report that both cytoskeleton (CSK) and intracellular fluid govern the strain-rate-dependent mechanical property of living cells whereas intracellular fluid plays a predominant role on fixed cells’ behavior. In addition, through the comparisons, it can be concluded that osteocytes are stiffer than chondrocytes at all strain-rates tested indicating that the cells could be the biomarker of their tissue origin. Finally, we report that MSnHS is able to capture the strain-rate-dependent mechanical behavior of osteocyte and chondrocyte for both living and fixed cells. Therefore, we concluded that the MSnHS is a good model for exploration of mechanical deformation responses of single osteocytes and chondrocytes. This study could open a new avenue for analysis of mechanical behavior of osteocytes and chondrocytes as well as other similar types of cells.

Towards a multi-element simulation of heavily over-consolidated bagasse using a material subroutine

A better understanding of the behaviour of prepared cane and bagasse, and the ability to model the mechanical behaviour of bagasse as it is squeezed in a milling unit to extract juice, would help identify how to improve the current process. There are opportunities to decrease bagasse moisture from a milling unit. The behaviour of bagasse in chutes is poorly understood. Previous investigations have shown that juice flow through bagasse obeys Darcy’s permeability law, that the grip of the rough surface of the grooves on the bagasse can be represented by the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion for soils, and that the internal mechanical behaviour of the bagasse is critical state behaviour similar to that for sand and clay. Progress has been made in the last 11 years towards implementing a mechanical model for bagasse in finite element software. The objective is to be able to correctly simulate various simple mechanical loading conditions measured in the laboratory. Combining these behaviours together is thought to have a high probability of reproducing the complicated stress conditions in a milling unit. This paper reports on progress made towards modelling the fifth and final (and most challenging) of the simple loading conditions: the shearing of heavily over-consolidated bagasse, using a specific model for bagasse in a multi-element simulation.

Determining the material properties for heavily over-consolidated bagasse through parameter estimation

A better understanding of the behaviour of prepared cane and bagasse, and the ability to model the mechanical behaviour of bagasse as it is squeezed in a milling unit to extract juice, would help identify how to improve the current process. For example, there are opportunities to decrease bagasse moisture from a milling unit. Also, the behaviour of bagasse in chutes is poorly understood. Previous investigations have shown that juice flow through bagasse obeys Darcy’s permeability law, that the grip of the rough surface of the grooves on the bagasse can be represented by the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion for soils, and that the internal mechanical behaviour of the bagasse is critical state behaviour similar to that for sand and clay. Progress has been made in the last ten years towards implementing a mechanical model for bagasse in finite element software. The objective has been to be able to simulate simple mechanical loading conditions measured in the laboratory, which, when combined together, have a high probability of reproducing the complicated stress conditions in a milling unit. This paper reports on the successful simulation of part of the fifth and final (and most challenging) loading condition, the shearing of heavily over-consolidated bagasse, and determining material property values through the use of powerful and free parameter estimation software.

A coupled SPH-DEM model for micro-scale structural deformations of plant cells during drying

A single plant cell was modeled with smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) and a discrete element method (DEM) to study the basic micromechanics that govern the cellular structural deformations during drying. This two-dimensional particle-based model consists of two components: a cell fluid model and a cell wall model. The cell fluid was approximated to a highly viscous Newtonian fluid and modeled with SPH. The cell wall was treated as a stiff semi-permeable solid membrane with visco-elastic properties and modeled as a neo-Hookean solid material using a DEM. Compared to existing meshfree particle-based plant cell models, we have specifically introduced cell wall–fluid attraction forces and cell wall bending stiffness effects to address the critical shrinkage characteristics of the plant cells during drying. Also, a moisture domain-based novel approach was used to simulate drying mechanisms within the particle scheme. The model performance was found to be mainly influenced by the particle resolution, initial gap between the outermost fluid particles and wall particles and number of particles in the SPH influence domain. A higher order smoothing kernel was used with adaptive smoothing length to improve the stability and accuracy of the model. Cell deformations at different states of cell dryness were qualitatively and quantitatively compared with microscopic experimental findings on apple cells and a fairly good agreement was observed with some exceptions. The wall–fluid attraction forces and cell wall bending stiffness were found to be significantly improving the model predictions. A detailed sensitivity analysis was also done to further investigate the influence of wall–fluid attraction forces, cell wall bending stiffness, cell wall stiffness and the particle resolution. This novel meshfree based modeling approach is highly applicable for cellular level deformation studies of plant food materials during drying, which characterize large deformations.

Contrast transfer function correction applied to cryo-electron tomography and sub-tomogram averaging

Cryo-electron tomography together with averaging of sub-tomograms containing identical particles can reveal the structure of proteins or protein complexes in their native environment. The resolution of this technique is limited by the contrast transfer function (CTF) of the microscope. The CTF is not routinely corrected in cryo-electron tomography because of difficulties including CTF detection, due to the low signal to noise ratio, and CTF correction, since images are characterised by a spatially variant CTF. Here we simulate the effects of the CTF on the resolution of the final reconstruction, before and after CTF correction, and consider the effect of errors and approximations in defocus determination. We show that errors in defocus determination are well tolerated when correcting a series of tomograms collected at a range of defocus values. We apply methods for determining the CTF parameters in low signal to noise images of tilted specimens, for monitoring defocus changes using observed magnification changes, and for correcting the CTF prior to reconstruction. Using bacteriophage PRDI as a test sample, we demonstrate that this approach gives an improvement in the structure obtained by sub-tomogram averaging from cryo-electron tomograms.

Seat Comfort. M4-M6.

Hardness is defined as the resistance and load bearing capability of an item. Seat hardness is an important factor in seat comfort as it impacts on a number of variables including seat postural stability, postural control, pressure comfort as a result of tissue deformation, and occupant vibration. The development of the test rig further on described in this report will enable Futuris Automotive to develop their current comfort testing procedures and thus increase the comfort of their automotive seats. The test rig consists of a buttock indenter, which produces a controlled application of a load to a seat cushion with measured displacement via a linear indenter. In parallel with the physical property presented, an analytic (software) finite element tool was developed to simulate seat pressure in an ANSYS Workbench V13 environment. This report also details the procedure required for Futuris to accurately and precisely measure cushion hardness which will enhance their comfort testing procedures, product development and target settings. The report is divided into three main sections: 1 Test equipment specification (M4) - A detailed description of the process used to build the seat cushion indenter and a description of the indenter mechanical structure and electrical functionality (chapter 2). 2 Analytic tool specification (M5) – A detailed description of the CAE seat and indenter software tool, developed as a finite element model (FEM) under ANSYS Workbench V13 to simulate indentation of a physical seat cushion similar to the hardware tool (chapter 3). 3 Product Development and Comfort Design Procedure (M6) - The cushion hardness testing procedure to be used with the physical indenter. This milestone is partially incomplete, as it covers a description of the test procedure to be applied, however not the operating system (control software) required to operate the physical property (chapter 4). Although outside the scope of this project, this report also details the testing procedures required to measure overall seatback hardness.