Capital flows to Latin America: third quarter 2004

Includes bibliography

Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 1997

Incluye Bibliografía.

Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2005-2006

Incluye Bibliografía

Results of the International Comparison Program (ICP) 2011 for Latin America and the Caribbean

The International Comparison Programme (ICP) is a worldwide statistical project whose purpose is to collect comparative price data from a broad list or basket of products and to compile detailed values for spending-side gross domestic product (GDP) in order to calculate purchasing power parities (PPPs). Using PPPs, rather than market exchange rates, to convert macroeconomic aggregates aids comparison of production across economies and of the well-being of populations in real terms, insofar as they are compared on the basis of the purchasing power of each of the participant countries.

Integration in Latin America - Trends and Challenges

Regional trade agreements have had a significant presence in the design of international and productive policies in Latin American and Caribbean countries since the early 1950s. Fifty years later, the region has not reached the degree of economic inter-relation found, for instance, in Western Europe, but the concern with promoting regional integration has been a tradition in an impressive amount of speeches and declarations by policy makers in the last decades. The weakening of multilateral negotiations and the multiplicity of bilateral agreements with countries in other regions might affect regional trade both via trade diversion and through investment decisions, considering a larger time horizon. International capital movement might affect exchange rates and output growth, hence influencing trade. At the same time the need for new, broader negotiating agenda, from simply dealing with trade issues to taking into consideration topics not directly related to trade but rather to competition, labour standards, environmental issues and others increase the difficulties in designing integration strategies. Even more so if the group of countries that aim at integrating their economies present markedly different characteristics. This article – an extension of a presentation made at the German Development Institute Conference on Regional Economic Integration Beyond Europe held in Bonn in December, 2007 - discusses these and other aspects related to regional integration in Latin America and the Caribbean.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Jamaica

Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon in which the earth‘s climate goes through cycles of warming and cooling; these changes usually take place incrementally over millennia. Over the past century, there has been an anomalous increase in global temperature, giving rise to accelerated climate change. It is widely accepted that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as industries have contributed significantly to the increase in global temperatures. The existence and survival of all living organisms is predicated on the ability of the environment in which they live not only to provide conditions for their basic needs but also conditions suitable for growth and reproduction. Unabated climate change threatens the existence of biophysical and ecological systems on a planetary scale. The present study aims to examine the economic impact of climate change on health in Jamaica over the period 2011-2050. To this end, three disease conditions with known climate sensitivity and importance to Jamaican public health were modelled. These were: dengue fever, leptospirosis and gastroenteritis in children under age 5. Historical prevalence data on these diseases were obtained from the Ministry of Health Jamaica, the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, the Climate Studies Group Mona, University of the West Indies Mona campus, and the Meteorological Service of Jamaica. Data obtained spanned a twelve-year period of 1995-2007. Monthly data were obtained for dengue and gastroenteritis, while for leptospirosis, the annual number of cases for 1995-2005 was utilized. The two SRES emission scenarios chosen were A2 and B2 using the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM) global climate model to predict climate variables for these scenarios. A business as usual (BAU) scenario was developed using historical disease data for the period 2000-2009 (dengue fever and gastroenteritis) and 1995-2005 (leptospirosis) as the reference decades for the respective diseases. The BAU scenario examined the occurrence of the diseases in the absence of climate change. It assumed that the disease trend would remain unchanged over the projected period and the number of cases of disease for each decade would be the same as the reference decade. The model used in the present study utilized predictive empirical statistical modelling to extrapolate the climate/disease relationship in time, to estimate the number of climate change-related cases under future climate change scenarios. The study used a Poisson regression model that considered seasonality and lag effects to determine the best-fit model in relation to the diseases under consideration. Zhang and others (2008), in their review of climate change and the transmission of vector-borne diseases, found that: ―Besides climatic variables, few of them have included other factors that can affect the transmission of vector-borne disease….‖ (Zhang 2008) Water, sanitation and health expenditure are key determinants of health. In the draft of the second communication to IPCC, Jamaica noted the vulnerability of public health to climate change, including sanitation and access to water (MSJ/UNDP, 2009). Sanitation, which in its broadest context includes the removal of waste (excreta, solid, or other hazardous waste), is a predictor of vector-borne diseases (e.g. dengue fever), diarrhoeal diseases (such as gastroenteritis) and zoonoses (such as leptospirosis). In conceptualizing the model, an attempt was made to include non-climate predictors of these climate-sensitive diseases. The importance of sanitation and water access to the control of dengue, gastroenteritis and leptospirosis were included in the Poisson regression model. The Poisson regression model obtained was then used to predict the number of disease cases into the future (2011-2050) for each emission scenario. After projecting the number of cases, the cost associated with each scenario was calculated using four cost components. 1. Treatment cost morbidity estimate. The treatment cost for the number of cases was calculated using reference values found in the literature for each condition. The figures were derived from studies of the cost of treatment and represent ambulatory and non-fatal hospitalized care for dengue fever and gastroenteritis. Due to the paucity of published literature on the health care cost associated with leptospirosis, only the cost of diagnosis and antibiotic therapy were included in the calculation. 2. Mortality estimates. Mortality estimates are recorded as case fatality rates. Where local data were available, these were utilized. Where these were unavailable, appropriate reference values from the literature were used. 3. Productivity loss. Productivity loss was calculated using a human capital approach, by multiplying the expected number of productive days lost by the caregiver and/or the infected person, by GDP per capita per day (US$ 14) at 2008 GDP using 2008 US$ exchange rates. 4. No-option cost. The no-option cost refers to adaptation strategies for the control of dengue fever which are ongoing and already a part of the core functions of the Vector Control Division of the Ministry of Health, Jamaica. An estimated US$ 2.1 million is utilized each year in conducting activities to prevent the post-hurricane spread of vector borne diseases and diarrhoea. The cost includes public education, fogging, laboratory support, larvicidal activities and surveillance. This no-option cost was converted to per capita estimates, using population estimates for Jamaica up to 2050 obtained from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN, 2006) and the assumption of one expected major hurricane per decade. During the decade 2000-2009, Jamaica had an average inflation of 10.4% (CIA Fact book, last updated May 2011). This average decadal inflation rate was applied to the no-option cost, which was inflated by 10% for each successive decade to adjust for changes in inflation over time.

Going through the labyrinth: the political economy of Argentina’s abandonment of the gold standard (1929-1933)

This article is the short but crucial history of four years of transition in a monetary and exchange-rate regime that culminated in 1933 with the final abandonment of the gold standard in Argentina. That process involved decisions made at critical junctures at which the government authorities had little time to deliberate and against which they had no analytical arsenal, no technical certainties and few political convictions. The objective of this study is to analyse those “decisions” at seven milestone moments, from the external shock of 1929 to the submission to Congress of a bill for the creation of the central bank and a currency control regime characterized by multiple exchange rates. The new regime that this reordering of the Argentine economy implied would remain in place, in one form or another, for at least a quarter of a century.

The use of grafting to improve the net photosynthesis of cucumber

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Analysis of metabolic pools in broilers chicks

This paper shows the possibility of obtaining new parameters for the mathematical modelling of data on stable isotopes in biological systems and its application in obtaining data on metabolic pools of blood plasma, blood serum, liver and muscle of broilers. This theory states that the modelling of turnover used for studies of isotopic incorporation when the metabolism has a single metabolic pool is feasible by the technique of setting an exponential. However, when the metabolism has more than one metabolic pool, it is necessary to apply the linearization technique, linear regression adjustment and evaluation of the assumptions of regression to obtain the kinetic parameters such as half-life (T1/2) and isotope exchange rate (k). The application of this technique on carbon-13 data from 100 one-day-old chicks, with the change of diet composed of grains of the photosynthetic cycle of plants from C4 to C3, in broilers has enabled the discovery that the liver, blood plasma and blood serum have a single metabolic pool; however, the pectoral muscle has two metabolic pools. For the liver, blood plasma and blood serum, the half-life values were found by the exponential fit being T1/2 = 1.4 days with the rate of exchange of k = 0.502, T1/2 = 2.4 days with k = 0.293 and T1/2 = 2.0 days with k = 0.348, respectively. For the pectoral muscle, after linearization, the half-life values were found for T1/2(1) = 1.7 and T1/2(2) = 3 days, with exchange rates of k1 = 0.405 and k2 = 0.235, representing approximately 66 and 34 %, respectively.

Computational tools for comparing asymmetric GARCH models via Bayes factors

In this paper we use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in order to estimate and compare GARCH models from a Bayesian perspective. We allow for possibly heavy tailed and asymmetric distributions in the error term. We use a general method proposed in the literature to introduce skewness into a continuous unimodal and symmetric distribution. For each model we compute an approximation to the marginal likelihood, based on the MCMC output. From these approximations we compute Bayes factors and posterior model probabilities. (C) 2012 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Drug suicide: a sex-equal cause of death in 16 European countries

Background There is a lack of international research on suicide by drug overdose as a preventable suicide method. Sex- and age-specific rates of suicide by drug self-poisoning (ICD-10, X60-64) and the distribution of drug types used in 16 European countries were studied, and compared with other self-poisoning methods (X65-69) and intentional self-injury (X70-84). Methods Data for 2000-04/05 were collected from national statistical offices. Age-adjusted suicide rates, and age and sex distributions, were calculated. Results No pronounced sex differences in drug self-poisoning rates were found, either in the aggregate data (males 1.6 and females 1.5 per 100,000) or within individual countries. Among the 16 countries, the range (from some 0.3 in Portugal to 5.0 in Finland) was wide. 'Other and unspecified drugs' (X64) were recorded most frequently, with a range of 0.2-1.9, and accounted for more than 70% of deaths by drug overdose in France, Luxembourg, Portugal and Spain. Psychotropic drugs (X61) ranked second. The X63 category ('other drugs acting on the autonomic nervous system') was least frequently used. Finland showed low X64 and high X61 figures, Scotland had high levels of X62 ('narcotics and hallucinogens, not elsewhere classified') for both sexes, while England exceeded other countries in category X60. Risk was highest among the middle-aged everywhere except in Switzerland, where the elderly were most at risk. Conclusions Suicide by drug overdose is preventable. Intentional self-poisoning with drugs kills as many males as females. The considerable differences in patterns of self-poisoning found in the various European countries are relevant to national efforts to improve diagnostics of suicide and appropriate specific prevention. The fact that vast majority of drug-overdose suicides came under the category X64 refers to the need of more detailed ICD coding system for overdose suicides is needed to permit better design of suicide-prevention strategies at national level.

Comparison of (31)P saturation and inversion magnetization transfer in human liver and skeletal muscle using a clinical MR system and surface coils.

(31)P MRS magnetization transfer ((31)P-MT) experiments allow the estimation of exchange rates of biochemical reactions, such as the creatine kinase equilibrium and adenosine triphosphate (ATP) synthesis. Although various (31)P-MT methods have been successfully used on isolated organs or animals, their application on humans in clinical scanners poses specific challenges. This study compared two major (31)P-MT methods on a clinical MR system using heteronuclear surface coils. Although saturation transfer (ST) is the most commonly used (31)P-MT method, sequences such as inversion transfer (IT) with short pulses might be better suited for the specific hardware and software limitations of a clinical scanner. In addition, small NMR-undetectable metabolite pools can transfer MT to NMR-visible pools during long saturation pulses, which is prevented with short pulses. (31)P-MT sequences were adapted for limited pulse length, for heteronuclear transmit-receive surface coils with inhomogeneous B1 , for the need for volume selection and for the inherently low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) on a clinical 3-T MR system. The ST and IT sequences were applied to skeletal muscle and liver in 10 healthy volunteers. Monte-Carlo simulations were used to evaluate the behavior of the IT measurements with increasing imperfections. In skeletal muscle of the thigh, ATP synthesis resulted in forward reaction constants (k) of 0.074 ± 0.022 s(-1) (ST) and 0.137 ± 0.042 s(-1) (IT), whereas the creatine kinase reaction yielded 0.459 ± 0.089 s(-1) (IT). In the liver, ATP synthesis resulted in k = 0.267 ± 0.106 s(-1) (ST), whereas the IT experiment yielded no consistent results. ST results were close to literature values; however, the IT results were either much larger than the corresponding ST values and/or were widely scattered. To summarize, ST and IT experiments can both be implemented on a clinical body scanner with heteronuclear transmit-receive surface coils; however, ST results are much more robust against experimental imperfections than the current implementation of IT.

Testing for Balance Sheet Effects in Emerging Market Countries

This paper tests the presence of balance sheets effects and analyzes the implications for exchange rate policies in emerging markets. The results reveal that the emerging market bond index (EMBI) is negatively related to the banks' foreign currency leverage, and that these banks' foreign currency exposures are relatively unhedged. Panel SVAR methods using EMBI instead of advanced country lending rates find, contrary to the literature, that the amplitude of output responses to foreign interest rate shocks are smaller under relatively fixed regimes. The findings are robust to the local projections method of obtaining impulse responses, using country specific and GARCH-SVAR models.

Financial Liberalization and Inflationary Dynamics in the Context of a Small Open Economy

The paper develops a short-run model of a small open financially repressed economy characterized by unorganized money markets, capital good imports, capital mobility, wage indexation, and flexible exchange rates. The analysis shows that financial liberalization, in the form of an increased rate of interest on deposits and tight monetary policy, unambiguously and unconditionally causes deflation. Moreover, the results do not depend on the degree of capital mobility and structure of wage setting. The paper recommends that a small open developing economy should deregulate interest rates and tighten monetary policy if reducing inflation is a priority. The pre-requisite for such a policy, however, requires the establishment of a flexible exchange rate regime.