Confidence and the Stock Market: An Agent-Based Approach

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Information Search Behavior: Proposal of Study with Investors in the Stock Market

With the aim of analyzing the information search behavior of investors working in the stock market, this research sought to raise the aspects related to this behavior with focus on the cognitive and causal aspects which pervade the need for information of these investors. For that, the general pattern of informational behavior proposed by Wilson [10], and also the analysis of a report from an investor of the stock market area were used as basis for the analysis and reflection. The report of only one investor was used as basis for investigation, turning it impossible to extrapolate such result to a greater universe. The objective of this research was to investigate the need for information, the context and the intervenient variables which might interfere or not in the information search behavior of investors, in an attempt to get a deeper comprehension about the subject, as well as to propose the continuity of studies with basis on this study proposal.

Educational and professional background and success in the labor market: the case of Portuguese immigrants in the Netherlands

The aim of this paper is to describe the relationship between educational and professional occupation trajectories of Portuguese immigrants in The Netherlands. To this end, the sample used comprises Portuguese immigrants that arrived in The Netherlands in two periods which represent the highest influx of immigrants: around the years 1966 and 2002. The analysis of the data shows a strong relationship between the level of professional education and the level of professional occupation. Furthermore, some exceptions to the generalizations found show that in service training may lead to an improvement of the possibilities to ascend regarding the level of professional occupation.

The Myth of the Rational Market: Nudging Each Other Away from Fool’s Gold

A flurry of media commentary and several new books are focused on the recent financial crisis and near economic collapse. A Newsweek article by Zakaria (2009), “Greed is Good (To a Point),” suggests reconsidering the role of greed in capitalism. This is also the theme in Fools Gold (Tett, 2009), a story about the way derivatives markets have evolved: showing greed at its worst. In many ways this is the core source of the current set of problems. In some sense, these perspectives are integrated in The Myth of the Rational Market by Fox (2009), who traces the thinking on the efficient market hypothesis, now understood for what it is: a myth. Both books are based in large part on interviews with major players in the crisis. There are also books drawing mainly on science, but still quite accessible to general readers, as represented in Nudge by Thaler and Sunstein (2008). Both have done extensive research on human foibles in economic choice. There is also Animal Spirits (Akerlof and Schiller, 2009), a book about what Keynesian economics is really about, a look at human forces at work. Akerlof is a Nobel prize winner in economics, who before this has pointed to the problems with presuming rationality in real markets. Schiller is one of the few economists who predicted these events.

Guidelines for the Brazilian ceramic sector strategic development, based on a comparison with the Italian market

Based on a structured literature review, the ceramic tiles sector of Italy (benchmark) and Brazil (2nd world producer and consumer) are compared, under four strategic factors: normative, market, technology and strategic management, in order to identify critical risks for a national strategic sector. The document aims to propose guidelines for a strategic re-planning of the Brazilian ceramic tiles sector, making the Brazilian producers aware of the national market fragility (in spite of its recent remarkable evolution) and helping the policy makers to reflect on the need of reviewing the strategic planning methods and practice, of designing new targeted programs (based on coherence between operation and business strategies), of providing improved management to strengthen the sector against unfair competition by low-cost producers, enhancing the necessary infrastructure in technology, work, marketing and quality management. The analysis is limited to the single-firing production technology. The wide-coverage strategic analysis of the Brazilian ceramic tiles sector, very little studied until now in a scientific way, emphasizes the importance of applying research methodology and may be valuable to both scholars and practitioners. Additionally, it highlights the need of investments in innovation (product design and production technology) and the fundamental role of the sector organization, identifying different dimensions. It is possible to conclude that the recent Brazilian production growth is not due to a natural strengthening because of the hit of the sector and of correct enterprises strategy, but it seems the result of a temporary and favorable economic contingency.

The Young Mother and the Labor Market

Introduction - The Centro de Orientacao ao Adolescente of Campinas (Southeastern Brazil) maintains a program to qualify economically disadvantaged adolescent students aged 15 to 18 years to enter the labor market. Objective - To understand life projects of teenagers who became mothers while participating in the program, in the period from 2003 to 2008, aiming to find the place of professional life in their life trajectory before and after motherhood. Method - Eight young mothers were interviewed, and a qualitative methodology was applied to the analysis of the interviews. Results - The trajectories of study and work were discontinued or adapted due to motherhood. Four young mothers completed high school and none had entered university. Three did not return to work and the rest had diverse work experiences. The reported difficulties to enter the labor market were: inadequate instruments to support the children's care, low income, lack of work experience, presence of small children and little educational background. Final Considerations - Teenage motherhood did not indicate the exclusion of educational or work projects but indicated adjustments and the need for a family and social support network. It was noted the need for public policies targeted at the inclusion of youths in the labor market and at support services such as nurseries. Also, the need for a change in gender relations was demonstrated, with greater equality of rights as a precondition for the inclusion of women, especially those who are mothers, in the labor market.

Discretionary-based disclosure: evidence from the Brazilian market

The primary objective of this paper is to identify the factors that explain Brazilian companies level of voluntary disclosure. Underpinning this work is the Discretionary-based Disclosure theory. The sample is composed of the top 100 largest non-financial companies listed in the Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo (Brazilian Securities, Commodities, and Futures exchange - BOVESPA). Information was gathered from Financial Statements for the years ending in 2006, 2007, and 2008, with the use of content analysis. A disclosure framework based on 27 studies from these years was created, with a total of 92 voluntary items divided into two dimensions: economic (43) and socio-environmental (49). Based on the existing literature, a total of 12 hypotheses were elaborated and tested using a panel data approach. Results evidence that: (a) Sector and Origin of Control are statistically significant in all three models tested: economic, socio-environmental, and total; (b) Profitability is relevant in the economic model and in the total model; (c) Tobin s Q is relevant in the socio-environmental model and in the total disclosure model; (d) Leverage and Auditing Firm are only relevant in the economic disclosure model; (e) Size, Governance, Stock Issuing, Growth Opportunities and Concentration of Control are not statistically significant in any of the three models.

Facets of Gender : Analyses of the Family and the Labour Market

This thesis contains four different studies on the dynamics of gender in households and workplaces. The relationship between family life and work life is in focus, particularly in the paper on labour market outcomes after divorce. In the introductory chapter, the Swedish context is briefly described. The description focuses on gender differences in the labour market and in the home. Theories concerning the division of work in the household are discussed, as are two theories on labour market discrimination, viz. taste discrimination and statistical discrimination. The theory part is concluded with a discussion of social closure processes and gendered organizational structures. The Reproduction of Gender. Housework and Attitudes Towards Gender Equality in the Home Among Swedish Boys and Girls. The housework boys and girls age 10 to 18 do, and their attitudes towards gender equality in the home are studied. One aim is to see whether the work children do is gendered and if so, whether they follow their parents’, often gendered, pattern in housework. A second aim is to see whether parents’ division of work is related to the children’s attitude towards gender equality in the home. The data used are taken from the Swedish Child Level of Living Survey (Child-LNU) 2000. Results indicate that girls and boys in two-parent families are more prone to engage in gender-atypical work the more their parent of the same sex engages in this kind of work. The fact that girls still do more housework than boys indicates that housework is gendered work also among children. No relation between parents’ division of work and the child’s attitude towards gender equality in the home was found. Dependence within Families and the Household Division of Labor – A Comparison between Sweden and the United States. This paper assesses the relative explanatory value of the resource-bargaining perspective and the doing-gender approach in analysing the division of housework in the United States and Sweden from the mid-1970s to 2000. Data from the Swedish Level of Living Survey (LNU) and the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) were used. Overall results indicate that housework is truly gendered work in both countries during the entire period. Even so, the results also indicate that gender deviance neutralization is more pronounced in the United States than in Sweden. Unlike Swedish women, American women seem to increase their time spent in housework when their husbands are to some extent economically dependent on them, as if to neutralize the presumed gender deviance. Divorce and Labour Market Outcomes. Do Women Suffer or Gain? In this paper, the interconnected nature of work and family is studied by looking at labour market outcomes after divorce. The data used are retrospective work and family histories collected in LNU 1991. A hazard regression model with competing risks reveals that women’s chances of improving their occupational prestige appear to be better after divorce compared to before. Increased working hours and perhaps also increased energy invested in the job may pay off in better occupational opportunities. Worth noting, however, is that the outcome among women with a less firm labour market attachment is more often to a job of lower prestige than one of higher prestige. Hence, the labour market outcome for women after divorce is to some extent conditioned by their labour market attachment at the time of divorce. Men, on the other hand, in most cases seem to suffer occupationally from divorce. For separated men the risk of negative changes in occupational prestige is greater than for cohabiting men. Formal On-the-job Training. A Gender-Typed Experience and Wage- Related Advantage? Formal on-the-job training (FOJT) can have a positive impact on wages and on promotion opportunities. According to theory and earlier research, a two-step model of gender inequality in FOJT is predicted: First, women are less likely than men to take part in FOJT and, second, once women do get the more remunerative training, they are not rewarded for their new skills to the same extent as men are. Pooled cross-sectional data from the Swedish Survey of Living Conditions (ULF) in the mid-nineties were used. Results show that women are significantly less likely than men to take part in FOJT. Among those who do receive training, women are more likely to take part in industry-specific training, whereas men are more likely to participate in general training and training that increases promotion opportunities. The two latter forms of training significantly raise a man’s annual earnings but not a woman’s. Hence, the theoretical model is supported and it is argued that this gender inequality is partly due to employers’ discriminatory practices.

The Libor Market Model: from theory to calibration

This thesis is focused on the financial model for interest rates called the LIBOR Market Model. In the appendixes, we provide the necessary mathematical theory. In the inner chapters, firstly, we define the main interest rates and financial instruments concerning with the interest rate models, then, we set the LIBOR market model, demonstrate its existence, derive the dynamics of forward LIBOR rates and justify the pricing of caps according to the Black’s formula. Then, we also present the Swap Market Model, which models the forward swap rates instead of the LIBOR ones. Even this model is justified by a theoretical demonstration and the resulting formula to price the swaptions coincides with the Black’s one. However, the two models are not compatible from a theoretical point. Therefore, we derive various analytical approximating formulae to price the swaptions in the LIBOR market model and we explain how to perform a Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, we present the calibration of the LIBOR market model to the markets of both caps and swaptions, together with various examples of application to the historical correlation matrix and the cascade calibration of the forward volatilities to the matrix of implied swaption volatilities provided by the market.

The secondary market for life insurance policies in the United States market evolution and product valuation

In this work we discuss the secondary market for life insurance policies in the United States of America. First, we give an overview of the life settlement market: how it came into existence, its growth prospects and the ethical issues it arises. Secondly, we discuss the characteristics of the different life insurance products present in the market and describe how life settlements are originated. Life settlement transactions tend to be long and complex transactions that require the involvement of a number of parties. Also, a direct investment into life insurance policies is fraught with a number of practical issues and entails risks that are not directly related to longevity. This may reduce the efficiency of a direct investment in physical policies. For these reasons, a synthetic longevity market has evolved. The number of parties involved in a synthetic longevity transaction is typically smaller and the broker-dealer transferring the longevity exposure will be retaining most or all of the risks a physical investment entails. Finally, we describe the main methods used in the market to evaluate life settlement investments and the role of life expectancy providers.

The informal market of education in Egypt: Private tutoring and its implications /// Arbeitspapiere / Institut für Ethnologie und Afrikastudien ; 88

Education is generally perceived as a public good which should be provided by the state. In Egypt, free and equal access to education has been guaranteed to all citizens since President Nasser’s socialist reforms in the 1950s. However, due to high population growth rates and a lack of financial resources, the public education system has been struggling to accommodate rapidly increasing numbers of students. While enrolment rates have risen steadily, the quality of state-provided services has deteriorated. Teachers and students have to cope with high class densities, insufficient facilities, a rigid syllabus and a centralized examination system. Today, teaching is among the lowest-paying occupations in the public sector. One strategy to cope with this situation is the widespread practice of private tutoring, which usually takes place at students’ homes or in commercial tutoring centers. Based on research carried out in Cairo in 2004/05 and 2006, I use an actor-centered approach to analyze the motivations of Egyptian teachers and students for participating in private tutoring and the impact that this practice has on the relationship between teachers and students. Students of all socio-economic backgrounds resort to tutoring in order to succeed in a highly competitive and exam-oriented education system. However, the form and quality of tutoring that can be accessed depends on the financial means of the family. For teachers, tutoring provides a good opportunity not only to supplement their income, but also, in the case of renowned “star teachers”, to improve their professional status and autonomy. On the informal “market of education” that has developed in Egypt during the last decades, the educational responsibilities of the state are increasingly being taken over by private actors, i.e. the process of teaching and learning is dissociated from the direct control of the state and from school as an institution. At the same time, education is turned into a marketable commodity. Despite the government’s efforts to provide free education to all citizens, the quality of social services that can be accessed in Egypt, thus, depends mainly on the financial means of the individual or the family.

Gold and the Stock Market: 3 Essays on Gold Investments

This thesis gives an overview of the history of gold per se, of gold as an investment good and offers some institutional details about gold and other precious metal markets. The goal of this study is to investigate the role of gold as a store of value and hedge against negative market movements in turbulent times. I investigate gold’s ability to act as a safe haven during periods of financial stress by employing instrumental variable techniques that allow for time varying conditional covariance. I find broad evidence supporting the view that gold acts as an anchor of stability during market downturns. During periods of high uncertainty and low stock market returns, gold tends to have higher than average excess returns. The effectiveness of gold as a safe haven is enhanced during periods of extreme crises: the largest peaks are observed during the global financial crises of 2007-2009 and, in particular, during the Lehman default (October 2008). A further goal of this thesis is to investigate whether gold provides protection from tail risk. I address the issue of asymmetric precious metal behavior conditioned to stock market performance and provide empirical evidence about the contribution of gold to a portfolio’s systematic skewness and kurtosis. I find that gold has positive coskewness with the market portfolio when the market is skewed to the left. Moreover, gold shows low cokurtosis with the market returns during volatile periods. I therefore show that gold is a desirable investment good to risk averse investors, since it tends to decrease the probability of experiencing extreme bad outcomes, and the magnitude of losses in case such events occur. Gold thus bears very important and under-researched characteristics as an asset class per se, which this thesis contributed to address and unveil.