The development of a computer simulation model of the interaction between the supply and usage of major components in car assembly you use in stock control

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A disztribúció kiszervezéséhez kapcsolódó ellátási és működési kockázatok (Supply and operational risks in the outsourcing of distribution management)

A cikk célja, hogy elemző bemutatását adja az ellátási láncok működéséhez, különösen a disztribúciós tevékenység kiszervezéséhez kapcsolódó működési kockázatoknak. Az írás első része az irodalomkutatás eredményeit feldolgozva az ellátási láncok kockázati kitettségének növekedése mögött rejlő okokat törekszik feltárni, s röviden bemutatja a vállalati kockázatkezelés lehetséges lépéseit e téren. A cikk második gondolati egysége mélyinterjúk segítségével összefoglalja és rendszerezi a disztribúció kiszervezéséhez kapcsolódó kockázatokat, számba veszi a kapcsolódó kockázatkezelési lehetőségeket, s bemutatja a megkérdezett vállalatok által alkalmazott kockázat-megelőzési alternatívákat. ______ The aim of this paper is to introduce operational risks of supply chains, especially risks deriving from the outsourcing of distribution management. Based on literature review the first part of the paper talks about the potential reasons of increasing global supply chain risks, and the general business activities of risk assessment. Analyzing the results of semi-structured qualitative interviews, the second part summarizes the risks belonging to the outsourcing of distribution and introduces the potential risk assessment and avoidance opportunities and alternatives in practice.

Impact of Water Supply and Sanitation on Diarrheal Morbidity among Young Children in the Socioeconomic and Cultural Context of Rwanda (Africa)

This project studied the frequency and of water contamination at the source, during transportation, and at home to determine the causes of contamination and its impact on the health of children aged 0 to 5 years. The methods used were construction of the infrastructure for three sources of potable water, administration of a questionnaire about socioeconomic status and sanitation behavior, anthropometric measurement of children, and analysis of water and feces. The contamination, first thought to be only a function of rainfall, turned out to be a very complex phenomenon. Water in homes was contaminated (43.4%) with more than 1100 total coliforms/100 ml due to the use of unclean utensils to transport and store water. This socio-economic and cultural problem should be ad- dressed with health education about sanitation, The latrines (found in 43.8% of families) presented a double-edged problem. The extremely high population density reduced the surface area of land per family, which resulted in a severe nutritional deficit (15% of the children) affecting mainly young children, rendering them more susceptible to diarrhea (three episodes/child/year).

Wind Resource Mapping Using Landscape Roughness and Spatial Interpolation Methods

Energy saving, reduction of greenhouse gasses and increased use of renewables are key policies to achieve the European 2020 targets. In particular, distributed renewable energy sources, integrated with spatial planning, require novel methods to optimise supply and demand. In contrast with large scale wind turbines, small and medium wind turbines (SMWTs) have a less extensive impact on the use of space and the power system, nevertheless, a significant spatial footprint is still present and the need for good spatial planning is a necessity. To optimise the location of SMWTs, detailed knowledge of the spatial distribution of the average wind speed is essential, hence, in this article, wind measurements and roughness maps were used to create a reliable annual mean wind speed map of Flanders at 10 m above the Earth’s surface. Via roughness transformation, the surface wind speed measurements were converted into meso- and macroscale wind data. The data were further processed by using seven different spatial interpolation methods in order to develop regional wind resource maps. Based on statistical analysis, it was found that the transformation into mesoscale wind, in combination with Simple Kriging, was the most adequate method to create reliable maps for decision-making on optimal production sites for SMWTs in Flanders (Belgium).

A Simple Model of Access and Capacity for Post-Secondary Schooling in Canada (Working Paper 40)

This paper develops a simple model of the post-secondary education system in Canada that provides a useful basis for thinking about issues of capacity and access. It uses a supply-demand framework, where demand comes on the part of individuals wanting places in the system, and supply is determined not only by various directives and agreements between educational ministries and institutions (and other factors), but also the money available to universities and colleges through tuition fees. The supply and demand curves are then put together with a stylised tuition-setting rule to describe the “market” of post-secondary schooling. This market determines the number of students in the system, and their characteristics, especially as they relate to “ability” and family background, the latter being especially relevant to access issues. The manner in which various changes in the system – including tuition fees, student financial aid, government support for institutions, and the returns to schooling – are then discussed in terms of how they affect the number of students and their characteristics, or capacity and access.

The Roles of ‘Conventional’ and Demand-Responsive Bus Services

Purpose - The roles of ‘conventional’ (fixed-route and fixed-timetable) bus services is examined and compared to demand-responsive services, taking rural areas in England as the basis for comparison. It adopts a ‘rural’ definition of settlements under a population of 10,000. Design/methodology/approach - Evidence from the National Travel Survey, technical press reports and academic work is brought together to examine the overall picture. Findings - Inter-urban services between towns can provide a cost-effective way of serving rural areas where smaller settlements are suitably located. The cost structures of both fixed-route and demand-responsive services indicate that staff time and cost associated with vehicle provision are the main elements. Demand-responsive services may enable larger areas to be covered, to meet planning objectives of ensuring a minimum of level of service, but experience often shows high unit cost and public expenditure per passenger trip. Economic evaluation indicates user benefits per passenger trip of similar magnitude to existing average public expenditure per trip on fixed-route services. Considerable scope exists for improvements to conventional services through better marketing and service reliability. Practical implications - The main issue in England is the level of funding for rural services in general, and the importance attached to serving those without access to cars in such areas. Social implications - The boundary between fixed-route and demand-responsive operation may lie at relatively low population densities. Originality/value - The chapter uses statistical data, academic research and operator experience of enhanced conventional bus services to provide a synthesis of outcomes in rural areas.

Liquid-phase alcohol promoted methanol synthesis from CO2 and H2

Methanol is an important and versatile compound with various uses as a fuel and a feedstock chemical. Methanol is also a potential chemical energy carrier. Due to the fluctuating nature of renewable energy sources such as wind or solar, storage of energy is required to balance the varying supply and demand. Excess electrical energy generated at peak periods can be stored by using the energy in the production of chemical compounds. The conventional industrial production of methanol is based on the gas-phase synthesis from synthesis gas generated from fossil sources, primarily natural gas. Methanol can also be produced by hydrogenation of CO2. The production of methanol from CO2 captured from emission sources or even directly from the atmosphere would allow sustainable production based on a nearly limitless carbon source, while helping to reduce the increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Hydrogen for synthesis can be produced by electrolysis of water utilizing renewable electricity. A new liquid-phase methanol synthesis process has been proposed. In this process, a conventional methanol synthesis catalyst is mixed in suspension with a liquid alcohol solvent. The alcohol acts as a catalytic solvent by enabling a new reaction route, potentially allowing the synthesis of methanol at lower temperatures and pressures compared to conventional processes. For this thesis, the alcohol promoted liquid phase methanol synthesis process was tested at laboratory scale. Batch and semibatch reaction experiments were performed in an autoclave reactor, using a conventional Cu/ZnO catalyst and ethanol and 2-butanol as the alcoholic solvents. Experiments were performed at the pressure range of 30-60 bar and at temperatures of 160-200 °C. The productivity of methanol was found to increase with increasing pressure and temperature. In the studied process conditions a maximum volumetric productivity of 1.9 g of methanol per liter of solvent per hour was obtained, while the maximum catalyst specific productivity was found to be 40.2 g of methanol per kg of catalyst per hour. The productivity values are low compared to both industrial synthesis and to gas-phase synthesis from CO2. However, the reaction temperatures and pressures employed were lower compared to gas-phase processes. While the productivity is not high enough for large-scale industrial operation, the milder reaction conditions and simple operation could prove useful for small-scale operations. Finally, a preliminary design for an alcohol promoted, liquid-phase methanol synthesis process was created using the data obtained from the experiments. The demonstration scale process was scaled to an electrolyzer unit producing 1 Nm3 of hydrogen per hour. This Master’s thesis is closely connected to LUT REFLEX-platform.

Recent development and commercial adoption of legumes for heavy clay soils in Queensland

In previous chapters of this volume, various authors describe the development of herbaceous legumes for pastures on clay soils in Queensland until about the 1980s. Emphasis is on the collection and evaluation of the genus Desmanthus, given its relatively recent addition to agriculture and considerable potential for providing useful pasture legumes for clay soils, particularly in the seasonally dry areas of northern Australia. Other genera are also discussed, including early assessments of herbaceous legumes that were later developed for clay soils (Clitoria, Macroptilium and Stylosanthes). This chapter provides a summary of the development of herbaceous legumes for clay soils in Queensland from these earlier assessments until present. Beef cattle farming is the principal agricultural enterprise in seasonally dry areas of northern Australia, including large areas of clay soils in Queensland. Sown and naturally occurring grasses provide the key feed resource, and the inclusion of sown legumes can significantly improve live-weight gain and reproductive performance per unit area. Queensland has been the centre of development for legumes for clay soils in tropical and subtropical areas of Australia, mostly through assessing and developing plants held in the Australian Tropical Forages Genetic Resource Collection (ATFGRC) (now a component of the Australia Pastures Genebank (APG)). The systematic appraisal of genetic material for clay soils was a focus of well-resourced government research up to the early to mid-1990s, but declined thereafter as sown pasture research teams were dismantled and funding to maintain the ATFGRC declined. Cultivar development is now conducted by small government, private enterprise and university research teams that collaborate where possible. In recent studies the use of experienced researcher knowledge and old plant evaluation sites has been particularly valuable for identifying potentially useful material. Cultivars for long- and short-term pastures on clay soils have been developed to the level of commercial seed production for Desmanthus (five cultivars from four species with two cultivars (one composite) in current use), Clitoria ternatea (one cultivar), Macroptilium bracteatum (two) and Stylosanthes seabrana (two). Other potential cultivars of these species are currently in various stages of development. Each species has different production niches depending on climate, clay soil type and grazing strategy. Adoption of these cultivars is occurring but has variously been impeded by limited promotion, mismatch of seed supply and demand, and difficulty establishing legumes in pastures of some key grass species. Recent renewed investment by the Australian Beef Industry has seen revived government research into pasture legumes in Queensland and rejuvenation of the APG.

Social Mobility and Demand for Redistribution. A Comparative Analysis

The literature on preferences for redistribution has paid little attention to the effect of social mobility on the demand for redistribution, which is in contrast with the literature on class-voting, where studies on the effect of social mobility has been very common. Some works have addressed this issue but no systematic test of the hypotheses connecting social mobility and preferences has been done. In this paper we use the diagonal reference models to estimate the effect of origin and destination class on preferences for redistribution in a sample of European countries using data from the European Social Survey. Our findings indicate that social origin matters to a little extent to explain preferences, as newcomers tend to adopt the preferences of the destination class. Moreover, we have found only limited evidence supporting the acculturation hypothesis and not support for the status maximization hypothesis. Furthermore, the effect of social origin varies largely between countries. In a second step of the analysis we investigate what are the national factors explaining this variation. The empirical evidence we present leads to conclude that high rates of upward social mobility sharply reduce the effect of social origin on preferences for redistribution

Social Trust and Demand for Redistribution. Is There a Crowding out Effect?

The debate about the relationship between social capital the welfare state has produced contradictory results for a long time. The crowding out hypothesis states that the growth of the welfare state would erode social capital, as the action of the state leave no room for non-regulated spontaneous cooperation. In sharp contrast, the crowding in hypothesis states that there is virtuous circle between the size of the welfare state and the stock of social capital in a particular country, since generous welfare states (specially those relying on universalistic programs) will produce a particular sense of fairness and solidarity toward fellow citizens. Yet, the empirical evidence testing the explanatory power of these theories is mostly inconclusive. To further our knowledge of this puzzle, in this paper I focus specifically on the relationship between social trust and preferences for redistribution at the individual level in a sample of European countries belonging to different welfare state regimes.

Computational Models Development and Demand Response Application for Smart Grids

This paper focuses on computational models development and its applications on demand response, within smart grid scope. A prosumer model is presented and the corresponding economic dispatch problem solution is analyzed. The prosumer solar radiation production and energy consumption are forecasted by artificial neural networks. The existing demand response models are studied and a computational tool based on fuzzy clustering algorithm is developed and the results discussed. Consumer energy management applications within the InovGrid pilot project are presented. Computation systems are developed for the acquisition, monitoring, control and supervision of consumption data provided by smart meters, allowing the incorporation of consumer actions on their electrical energy management. An energy management system with integration of smart meters for energy consumers in a smart grid is developed.

Large scale underground energy storage for renewables integration: general criteria for reservoir identification and viable technologies.

The increasing integration of renewable energies in the electricity grid contributes considerably to achieve the European Union goals on energy and Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emissions reduction. However, it also brings problems to grid management. Large scale energy storage can provide the means for a better integration of the renewable energy sources, for balancing supply and demand, to increase energy security, to enhance a better management of the grid and also to converge towards a low carbon economy. Geological formations have the potential to store large volumes of fluids with minimal impact to environment and society. One of the ways to ensure a large scale energy storage is to use the storage capacity in geological reservoir. In fact, there are several viable technologies for underground energy storage, as well as several types of underground reservoirs that can be considered. The geological energy storage technologies considered in this research were: Underground Gas Storage (UGS), Hydrogen Storage (HS), Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES), Underground Pumped Hydro Storage (UPHS) and Thermal Energy Storage (TES). For these different types of underground energy storage technologies there are several types of geological reservoirs that can be suitable, namely: depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs, aquifers, salt formations and caverns, engineered rock caverns and abandoned mines. Specific site screening criteria are applicable to each of these reservoir types and technologies, which determines the viability of the reservoir itself, and of the technology for any particular site. This paper presents a review of the criteria applied in the scope of the Portuguese contribution to the EU funded project ESTMAP – Energy Storage Mapping and Planning.

Research, development, and innovations in health risk assessment for brazilian agriculture.

Agriculture and livestock are key sectors of the Brazilian economy, which are essential for the country?s economic growth and for the equality between the domestic currency?s supply and demand. Agribusiness answered for about 23% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015, according to Confederação Nacional da Agricultura (CNA), and reached 50.3% of total exports in February 2016, according to Secretaria de Relações Internacionais do Agronegócio (SRI) of Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento (Mapa) (Brasil, 2016). Currently, this sector is recognized as the most competitive and efficient in Brazil, considering the global scenario.

Risk-assessment practices in the private rental sector : implications for low-income renters (Final Report)

This report focuses on risk-assessment practices in the private rental market, with particular consideration of their impact on low-income renters. It is based on the fieldwork undertaken in the second stage of the research process that followed completion of the Positioning Paper. The key research question this study addressed was: What are the various factors included in ‘risk-assessments’ by real estate agents in allocating ‘affordable’ tenancies? How are these risks quantified and managed? What are the key outcomes of their decision-making? The study builds on previous research demonstrating that a relatively large proportion of low-cost private rental accommodation is occupied by moderate- to high-income households (Wulff and Yates 2001; Seelig 2001; Yates et al. 2004). This is occurring in an environment where the private rental sector is now the de facto main provider of rental housing for lower-income households across Australia (Seelig et al. 2005) and where a number of factors are implicated in patterns of ‘income–rent mismatching’. These include ongoing shifts in public housing assistance; issues concerning eligibility for rent assistance; ‘supply’ factors, such as loss of low-cost rental stock through upgrading and/or transfer to owner-occupied housing; patterns of supply and demand driven largely by middle- to high-income owner-investors and renters; and patterns of housing need among low-income households for whom affordable housing is not appropriate. In formulating a way of approaching the analysis of ‘risk-assessment’ in rental housing management, this study has applied three sociological perspectives on risk: Beck’s (1992) formulation of risk society as entailing processes of ‘individualisation’; a socio-cultural perspective which emphasises the situated nature of perceptions of risk; and a perspective which has drawn attention to different modes of institutional governance of subjects, as ‘carriers of specific indicators of risk’. The private rental market was viewed as a social institution, and the research strategy was informed by ‘institutional ethnography’ as a method of enquiry. The study was based on interviews with property managers, real estate industry representatives, tenant advocates and community housing providers. The primary focus of inquiry was on ‘the moment of allocation’. Six local areas across metropolitan and regional Queensland, New South Wales, and South Australia were selected as case study localities. In terms of the main findings, it is evident that access to private rental housing is not just a matter of ‘supply and demand’. It is also about assessment of risk among applicants. Risk – perceived or actual – is thus a critical factor in deciding who gets housed, and how. Risk and its assessment matter in the context of housing provision and in the development of policy responses. The outcomes from this study also highlight a number of salient points: 1.There are two principal forms of risk associated with property management: financial risk and risk of litigation. 2. Certain tenant characteristics and/or circumstances – ability to pay and ability to care for the rented property – are the main factors focused on in assessing risk among applicants for rental housing. Signals of either ‘(in)ability to pay’ and/or ‘(in)ability to care for the property’ are almost always interpreted as markers of high levels of risk. 3. The processing of tenancy applications entails a complex and variable mix of formal and informal strategies of risk-assessment and allocation where sorting (out), ranking, discriminating and handing over characterise the process. 4. In the eyes of property managers, ‘suitable’ tenants can be conceptualised as those who are resourceful, reputable, competent, strategic and presentable. 5. Property managers clearly articulated concern about risks entailed in a number of characteristics or situations. Being on a low income was the principal and overarching factor which agents considered. Others included: - unemployment - ‘big’ families; sole parent families - domestic violence - marital breakdown - shift from home ownership to private rental - Aboriginality and specific ethnicities - physical incapacity - aspects of ‘presentation’. The financial vulnerability of applicants in these groups can be invoked, alongside expressed concerns about compromised capacities to manage income and/or ‘care for’ the property, as legitimate grounds for rejection or a lower ranking. 6. At the level of face-to-face interaction between the property manager and applicants, more intuitive assessments of risk based upon past experience or ‘gut feelings’ come into play. These judgements are interwoven with more systematic procedures of tenant selection. The findings suggest that considerable ‘risk’ is associated with low-income status, either directly or insofar as it is associated with other forms of perceived risk, and that such risks are likely to impede access to the professionally managed private rental market. Detailed analysis suggests that opportunities for access to housing by low-income householders also arise where, for example: - the ‘local experience’ of an agency and/or property manager works in favour of particular applicants - applicants can demonstrate available social support and financial guarantors - an applicant’s preference or need for longer-term rental is seen to provide a level of financial security for the landlord - applicants are prepared to agree to specific, more stringent conditions for inspection of properties and review of contracts - the particular circumstances and motivations of landlords lead them to consider a wider range of applicants - In particular circumstances, property managers are prepared to give special consideration to applicants who appear worthy, albeit ‘risky’. The strategic actions of demonstrating and documenting on the part of vulnerable (low-income) tenant applicants can improve their chances of being perceived as resourceful, capable and ‘savvy’. Such actions are significant because they help to persuade property managers not only that the applicant may have sufficient resources (personal and material) but that they accept that the onus is on themselves to show they are reputable, and that they have valued ‘competencies’ and understand ‘how the system works’. The parameters of the market do shape the processes of risk-assessment and, ultimately, the strategic relation of power between property manager and the tenant applicant. Low vacancy rates and limited supply of lower-cost rental stock, in all areas, mean that there are many more tenant applicants than available properties, creating a highly competitive environment for applicants. The fundamental problem of supply is an aspect of the market that severely limits the chances of access to appropriate and affordable housing for low-income rental housing applicants. There is recognition of the impact of this problem of supply. The study indicates three main directions for future focus in policy and program development: providing appropriate supports to tenants to access and sustain private rental housing, addressing issues of discrimination and privacy arising in the processes of selecting suitable tenants, and addressing problems of supply.

Disclosing donation decisions : the role of organ donor prototypes in an extended theory of planned behaviour

This study explored the role of donor prototype evaluations (perceptions of the typical organ donor) in organ donation communication decisions using an extended theory of planned behaviour (TPB) model. The model incorporated attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control, moral norm, self-identity, and donor prototype evaluations to predict intentions to record consent on an organ donor register and discuss the organ donation decision with significant others. Participants completed surveys assessing the extended TPB constructs related to registering (n = 359) and discussing (n = 282). Results supported a role for donor prototype evaluations in predicting discussing intentions only. Both extended TPB structural equation models were a good fit to the data, accounting for 74 and 76% of the variance in registering and discussing intentions, respectively. Participants’ self-reported discussing behaviour (but not registering behaviour given low numbers of behavioural performers) was assessed 4 weeks later, with discussing intention as the only significant predictor of behaviour (Nagelkerke R2 = 0.11). These findings highlight the impact of people's perceptions of a typical donor on their decisions to discuss their organ donation preference, assisting our understanding of the factors influencing individuals' communication processes in efforts to bridge the gap between organ supply and demand.