The crisis in Iraq and the twists and turns of Turkish Middle East policy. OSW Commentary No. 142, 29.07.2014

The spectacular offensive by Islamic radicals in Iraq this June has led the country to the verge of collapse, and is another scene of the deep crisis in the Middle East, in which Turkey is entangled. The immediate consequence of this is a severe crisis of prestige after the kidnapping by terrorists of Turkish diplomats and Ankara’s inability to resolve the situation; in the long term consequences include escalation of the Kurdish problem, and a further increase in threats to the security of Turkey itself as well as the fundamental principles of its foreign policy. Both Ankara’s options and its political will to actively respond to the crisis are extremely limited. Yet again in recent years, the current crisis, the broader situation in the Middle East, and finally the position of Turkey in the region elude unambiguous assessments and forecasts – these are prevented by the scale and growth of the reappraisals and tensions in the region. The only undoubted fact is that Turkey is strategically and irreversibly entangled in the Middle East’s problems, which are an important factor affecting the transformation of the state which the ruling AKP is implementing; and in the near future, this state of affairs will only deepen.

Russia in Crisis: Year One. OSW Report, January 2010

Economic conditions which had favoured Russia’s development suddenly changed in mid-2008. The Russian economy was hit, on the one hand, by a drastic slump in oil prices (which fell from nearly US$150 to US$50 between July 2008 and January 2009), and on the other by the outflow of investors (a net of US$130 billion of capital left Russia in the fourth quarter of 2008). Within several months, the financial crisis became an economic crisis affecting the entire economy. The financial reserves accumulated in times of prosperity (more than US$162 billion in the stabilisation funds and nearly US$598 billion in the currency and gold reserve) alleviated the negative impact of the crisis, although this failed to prevent the deep declines in macroeconomic indicators. Russia is one of the states most severely affected by the crisis. In the first half of 2009, its GDP fell by 10.4% compared to the same period in the previous year, while industrial production dropped by nearly 15%, and a decrease in investments of over 18% was reported. The poor economic performance has strongly affected the Russian budget, which reported a deficit for the first time in ten years in 2009. During the first year of the crisis (August 2008 – September 2009), Russia’s financial reserves were seriously reduced as a result of the government’s anti-crisis policy and interventions from the central bank: the reserve fund decreased by nearly 45% to US$76 billion, and the central bank’s reserves shrunk by nearly US$200 billion to US$409 billion. Meanwhile, however, the money in the National Welfare Fund, which had been intended almost entirely to subsidise the Pensions Fund between 2010 and 2015, rose almost three-fold (to US$90 billion). According to government forecasts, the money from the reserve fund is also supposed to be spent fully in 2010. The financial crisis has triggered a dynamic outflow of capital from the Russian market. So-called speculative capital was the first to demonstrate the lack of confidence in the Russian market. In the first half of 2009, the growth rate of long-term investments also decreased noticeably, although no spectacular withdrawal of direct investments from Russia has been observed. The economic crisis has also halted the foreign expansion of Russian private capital, while state-owned capital strengthened its position as an investor. Russia’s raw materials companies continue to be the main category of foreign investors; however, new technologies are gaining prominence as the second main direction of Russian investments.

The eurozone in bad need of a psychiatrist. EuropEos Commentary No. 6, 9 December 2010

Stefano Micossi, Director General of Assonime and member of the CEPS Board of Directors, observes in a new EuropEos Commentary that there is something surreal to the unfolding financial crisis of the eurozone, as the leaders grudgingly do what is needed to prevent disaster just minutes before it’s too late, and then in the next minute revert to the same behaviour that had brought them against the wall in the first place. He cites rising sovereign spreads within the area as the visible result of this strategy: they signal investors’ expectation that the future can only bring more of the same, a series of ever-larger sovereign debt crises, under Damocles’ sword that at some stage Germany, the paymaster of last resort, will close its purse and let Armageddon start.

The sovereign debt crisis that isn't: Or, How to turn a lending crisis into a spending crisis and pocket the spread. ACES Cases No. 2014.1

It’s a testament to the power of ideas in politics that the ongoing policy disaster in Europe is still referred to, by academic as well as popular commentators, as the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. That there was a crisis in European sovereign debt markets in 2010 through the middle of 2012 is not in doubt. That is was a crisis of European sovereign debt markets generated by ‘too much spending’ should be very much in doubt. The ongoing European economic crisis is in fact a transmuted private sector banking crisis first exacerbated and then calmed by central bank policy, the costs of which have been asymmetrically distributed across European mass publics.

The debt, the stock market and the state-owned enterprises. The sources of chaos on the Chinese financial markets. OSW Commentary NUMBER 201/16.03.2016

The government’s extensive programme for stimulating the economy has enabled China to maintain high economic growth after the global financial crisis in 2008. However, this success has come at the price of a number of negative economic phenomena and the consequences they have had are the major challenge for the government today. The vast programme of investments in infrastructure, construction and fixed assets, which has been the main source of economic growth over the past few years, has caused a rapid increase in China’s debt from 158% of GDP in 2007 to 282% in 2014. Along with the local governments in charge of implementing the programme, the Chinese sector of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) has been heavily burdened by the stimulation policy. The sector’s profitability has fallen, its indebtedness has increased and management problems have been revealed.

The Portuguese Economic Crisis: Policies and Outcomes. Bertelsmann Policy Brief, 19.02.2015

The financial and economic crisis in the aftermath of 2008 is unique for several reasons: its depth, its speed and its global entanglement. Simultaneous economic decline in many economies around the globe sent out political shockwaves. In Europe, the crisis served as a wake-up call. Policymakers responded to the social and political insecurity triggered by economically unsound practices with solidarity and with EU-scepticism. The recession confronted Euro zone countries with a number of similar problems, although each was embedded in its own set of country-specific challenges. The tools with which each began to counteract the financial and sovereign debt crisis differed. This policy brief examines the Portuguese path to recovery. It outlines some of the great recession’s main impacts on the country’s labour market, as well as analyses the path it has taken to restore sustainable jobs.

Nd and Sr isotope record of ODP Sites 121-756 and 122-762 sediments

We have analyzed the Nd isotopic composition of both ancient seawater and detrital material from long sequences of carbonated oozes of the South Indian Ocean which are ODP Site 756 (Ninety East Ridge (-30°S), 1518 m water depth) and ODP Site 762 (Northwest Australian margin, 1360 m water depth). The measurements indicate that the epsilon-Nd changes in Indian seawater over the last 35 Ma result from changes in the oceanic circulation, large volcanic and continental weathering Nd inputs. This highlights the diverse nature of those controls and their interconnections in a small area of the ocean. These new records combined with those previously obtained at the equatorial ODP Sites 757 and 707 in the Indian Ocean (Gourlan et al., 2008, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2007.11.054) established that the distribution of intermediate seawater epsilon-Nd was uniform over most of the Indian Ocean from 35 Ma to 10 Ma within a geographical area extending from 40°S to the equator and from -60°E to 120°E. However, the epsilon-Nd value of Indian Ocean seawater which kept an almost constant value (at about -7 to -8) from 35 to 15 Ma rose by 3 epsilon-Nd units from 15 to 10 Ma. This sharp increase has been caused by a radiogenic Nd enrichment of the water mass originating from the Pacific flowing through the Indonesian Passage. Using a two end-members model we calculated that the Nd transported to the Indian Ocean through the Indonesian Pathway was 1.7 times larger at 10 Ma than at 15 Ma. The Nd isotopic composition of ancient seawater and that of the sediment detrital component appear to be strongly correlated for some specific events. A first evidence occurs between 20 and 15 Ma with two positive spikes recorded in both epsilon-Nd signals that are clearly induced by a volcanic crisis of, most likely, the St. Paul hot-spot. A second evidence is the very large epsilon-Nd decrease recorded at ODP Sites 756 and 762 during the past 10 Ma which has never been previously observed. The synchronism between the epsilon-Nd decrease in seawater from 10 to 5 Ma and evidences of desertification in the western part of the nearly Australian continent suggests enhanced weathering inputs in this ocean from this continent as a result of climatic changes.

Diatom abundance and fatty acid composition of ice algae and of Calanus glacialis in samples obtained in 2008 in the eastern Beaufort Sea

The copepod Calanus glacialis plays a key role in the lipid-based energy flux in Arctic shelf seas. By utilizing both ice algae and phytoplankton, this species is able to extend its growth season considerably in these seasonally ice-covered seas. This study investigated the impacts of the variability in timing and extent of the ice algal bloom on the reproduction and population success of C. glacialis. The vertical distribution, reproduction, amount of storage lipids, stable isotopes, fatty acid and fatty alcohol composition of C. glacialis were assessed during the Circumpolar Flaw Lead System Study. Data were collected in the Amundsen Gulf, south-eastern Beaufort Sea, from January to July 2008 with the core-sampling from March to April. The reduction in sea ice thickness and coverage observed in the Amundsen Gulf in 2007 and 2008 affected the life strategy and reproduction of C. glacialis. Developmental stages CIII and CIV dominated the overwintering population, which resulted in the presence of very few CV and females during spring 2008. Spawning began at the peak of the ice algal bloom that preceded the precocious May ice break-up. Although the main recruitment may have occurred later in the season, low abundance of females combined with a potential mismatch between egg production/development to the first feeding stage and phytoplankton bloom resulted in low recruitment of C. glacialis in the early summer of 2008.

The organizations transcomplejas from the perspective of the nursing

El propósito del artículo es el análisis de las organizaciones transcomplejas desde la perspectiva de la Enfermería, en el contexto del paradigma de la complejidad. Todos los cuestionamientos realizados a las ciencias de la modernidad fueron necesarios para dar al mundo desarrollos de enorme significación, como es el paradigma de la complejidad donde se rescata la idea de la totalidad universal y con ella el holismo dentro de las organizaciones, si se consideran estas como organismos vivo; y este aplicado al campo de la salud donde los profesionales del cuidado de la salud entre ellos la enfermería ha aceptado la perspectiva de salud holística como, más que la ausencia de enfermedad, como la realización individual. La humanidad vive una crisis de fragmentación que conduce a sentimientos y emociones destructivas de la armonía y del arte de vivir en equilibrio. La perspectiva holistica se preocupa de promover la salud mediante la prevención y se aplica a las personas que se recuperan de una enfermedad y desean aprender a prevenir su repetición y mejorar su estatus de salud futura. Así, la enfermería estudia la totalidad o la salud de los humanos, reconociendo que los humanos están en continua interacción con su medio ambiente

The organizations transcomplejas from the perspective of the nursing

El propósito del artículo es el análisis de las organizaciones transcomplejas desde la perspectiva de la Enfermería, en el contexto del paradigma de la complejidad. Todos los cuestionamientos realizados a las ciencias de la modernidad fueron necesarios para dar al mundo desarrollos de enorme significación, como es el paradigma de la complejidad donde se rescata la idea de la totalidad universal y con ella el holismo dentro de las organizaciones, si se consideran estas como organismos vivo; y este aplicado al campo de la salud donde los profesionales del cuidado de la salud entre ellos la enfermería ha aceptado la perspectiva de salud holística como, más que la ausencia de enfermedad, como la realización individual. La humanidad vive una crisis de fragmentación que conduce a sentimientos y emociones destructivas de la armonía y del arte de vivir en equilibrio. La perspectiva holistica se preocupa de promover la salud mediante la prevención y se aplica a las personas que se recuperan de una enfermedad y desean aprender a prevenir su repetición y mejorar su estatus de salud futura. Así, la enfermería estudia la totalidad o la salud de los humanos, reconociendo que los humanos están en continua interacción con su medio ambiente

Technical efficiency determinants within a dual banking system:a DEA-bootstrap approach

The purpose of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of the efficiency of Islamic and conventional banks in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. In this study, we explain inefficiencies obtained by introducing firm-specific as well as macroeconomic variables. Our findings indicate that during the eight years of study, conventional banks largely outperform Islamic banks with an average technical efficiency score of 81% compared to 95.57%. However, it is clear that since 2008, efficiency of conventional banks was in a downward trend while the efficiency of their Islamic counterparts was in an upward trend since 2009. This indicates that Islamic banks have succeeded to maintain a level of efficiency during the subprime crisis period. Finally, for the whole sample, the analysis demonstrates the strong link of macroeconomic indicators with efficiency for GCC banks. Surprisingly, we have not found any significant relationship in the case of Islamic banks.

Válság és hitelderivatívák. A szintetikus fedezett adósságkötelezettségek (CDO-k) árazása és kockázataik (Crisis and loan derivatives. The pricing and risks of synthetic collateralized debt obligations)

A dolgozat első részében röviden áttekintjük a 2007-ben kezdődött pénzügyi válság lefolyását és a válsághoz vezető okokat. A bemutatás során igyekszünk végig a mögöttes folyamatokra és azok mozgatórugóira koncentrálni, ezzel megragadva a válság egyfajta "elméletét". A bemutatásból láthatóvá válik a hitelderivatívák kiemelt szerepe a válság során. A dolgozat második részében az egyik legnépszerűbb hitelderivatív termék, a szintetikus fedezett adósságkötelezettségek (CDO-k) matematikai modellezését és annak problémáit mutatjuk be. Sokak szerint ezek a matematikai modellek okozták - vagy legalábbis felerősítették - a válságot. Az elemzés során megmutatjuk, hogy nemcsak a modellezési eszközök nem voltak megfelelők, hanem az árazás elve sem állta meg a helyét a kockázatsemleges árazási keretben. Ez az eredmény élesen rámutat a mögöttes elméletek válságára. / === / The first part of the paper examines briefly the financial crisis of 2007 and its causes, focusing on its driving processes and key motifs. This shows clearly the importance and centrality of credit derivatives in the crisis. The second part presents a mathematical modelling of one of the most popular credit derivative products: synthetic collateralized debt obligations, along with the drawbacks and problems of the modelling process. It is widely claimed that these products caused or at least precipitated the crises. The authors show not only that the modelling tools were inappropriate, but that the principle for pricing did not match adequately the risk-neutral valuation framework.

Törlesztés válság idején a diákhitel törlesztésében bekövetkezett változások vizsgálata (Changes in Hungarian student loan repayments due to the crisis)

A 2008–2009-es pénzügyi válság hatására a magyarországi felsőoktatási hallgatók tanulmányait hitelekkel segítő Diákhitel Központ visszafizetési könnyítés lehetőségét ajánlotta fel a már törlesztési szakaszban lévő ügyfelei számára. Tanulmányunkban azt vizsgáljuk, hogy kik és hányan éltek a törlesztési mérséklés lehetőségével, és az emiatt elmaradó bevételek mennyire befolyásolhatják a Diákhitel Központ rövid és hosszú távú működését. Az derült ki, hogy az előírt törlesztéseikkel elmaradók nagyobb arányban kérték a mérséklést, mint a teljes törlesztői populáció. A törlesztési viselkedések változásának elemzése a válság hatásának érezhető visszahúzódását mutatja a 2010-es évben. Figyelmet érdemel az a tény, hogy a felsőfokú végzettséget szerző adósok törlesztési fegyelme nem elég erős. / === / After the world wide financial crisis in 2008/2009, the Student Loan Center in Hungary offered the following opportunity to its customers who were in the repayment period: they can pay a reduced amount of the installments for at most two years. In the present paper we study the group of customers who chose the opportunity of reduced installments. The effect of the delayed repayments on the short-term and long-term operations of the Center is also investigated. It turned out that the customers who already got into arrears asked for the reduction in a larger proportion than the whole population. The study of the customers in the repayment period shows that the impact of the financial crisis has decreased significantly. The disciplined repayment of the customers after graduation is not strong enough.

Volt-e likviditási válság? Volatilitás és likviditás kapcsolatának vizsgálata (Was there a liquidity crisis? Analysis the relationship between volatility and liquidity)

Széleskörűen alátámasztott, empirikus tény, hogy önmagában a nagyobb volatilitás csökkenti a piac likviditását, vagyis változékonyabb piacokon várhatóan nagyobb lesz egy-egy tranzakció áreltérítő hatása. Kutatásomban azt a kérdést vizsgáltam, hogy a Budapesti Értéktőzsdén az OTP-részvény piacán a 2007/2008-as válságban tapasztalható, átmeneti likviditáscsökkenés betudható volt-e egyszerűen a megnövekedett volatilitásnak, vagy ezen túl abban más tényezők (pl. a szereplők körének és viselkedésének drasztikus megváltozása, általános forráscsökkenés stb.) is szerepet játszhattak-e. A volatilitást a loghozamok szórásával, illetve a tényleges ársávval, míg az illikviditást a Budapesti Likviditási Mértékkel (BLM) reprezentáltam. Egyrészt azt állapítottam meg, hogy az OTP esetében a tényleges ársáv szorosabban korrelál a BLM-mel, mint a szórás. Másrészt az is egyértelmű, hogy a válság előtti kapcsolat a volatilitás és a likviditás között a válságban és azután már jelentősen megváltozott. Válságban az illikviditás jóval nagyobb volt, mint amit a volatilitás növekedése alapján vártunk, a válság lecsengése után azonban megfordult ez a reláció. _________ It is a widely supported empirical fact, that the greater volatility in itself decreases the liquidity of the market, namely more volatile a market is, the higher a transaction’s price impact will be. I have examined in my paper the question, whether the decrease of liquidity during the crisis of 2007/2008 in case of the OTP stock – traded on the Budapest Stock Exchange – was the consequence of the increased volatility, or other factors had an effect on the illiquidity as well (e.g.: the drastic change of market participants’ behaviour; reduction of fi nancing sources; etc.). I have represented volatility with the standard deviation of the logreturns, and with the true range, while the illiquidity with the Budapest Liquidity Measure (BLM). On one hand I have identifi ed, that in case of the OTP, the true range has a stronger relationship with the BLM than the standard deviation has. On the other hand it was clear, that the relationship between volatility and liquidity has changed notably during and after the crisis. During crisis the illiquidity was greater than what I have estimated based on the volatility increase, but after the crisis this relation has changed.

Válságkezelés Európában: új gazdaságfilozófia felé? (Towards a New Philosophy of Crisis Management in Europe?)

Az évek óta tartó európai válságkezelés leírása és a részletek bemutatása helyett a rögtönzött, politikai alapon hozott lépések gazdaságelméleti értelmezésére törekszünk. Kutatási alapkérdésünk a következő: igaz-e még a 70-es évek végének felismerése, ami szerint sem szerkezeti, sem szabályozási eredetű válságot nem lehet keresletélénkítéssel leküzdeni? Igaz-e, hogy a szuverén EU-tagállamokon belül bármi okból hiányzó belső elköteleződést nem lehet pótolni a külső fegyelmezéssel? Ennek fényében vizsgáljuk a költségvetési és a bankunió 2012 októberében körvonalazott és jóváhagyott tervezetét is. _____ This paper attempts to provide a theoretical interpretation of new policy initiatives in the EU culminating in the launching of a fiscal and banking union in June, 2012. This step is reinforced by the new ECB strategy launched in September 2012. These measures were a result of a series of policy improvisations rather than of any secret master plan, still they add up to a new model of European integration. Our research question is if, and to what degrees the insights from the crisis of the 1970s hold. Accordingly no amount of easy money may remedy ills deriving from regulatory and structural inefficiencies. Second, we contend that no amount of external straightjacket/disciplining may replace domestic commitment of national governments in implementing structural reforms rather than fiscal adjustments on the margin.