Predicting plant leaf area production: shoot assimilate accumulation and partitioning, and leaf area ratio, are stable for a wide range of sorghum population densities

Predicting plant leaf area production is required for modelling carbon balance and tiller dynamics in plant canopies. Plant leaf area production can be studied using a framework based on radiation intercepted, radiation use efficiency (RUE) and leaf area ratio (LAR) (ratio of leaf area to net above-ground biomass). The objective of this study was to test this framework for predicting leaf area production of sorghum during vegetative development by examining the stability of the contributing components over a large range of plant density. Four densities, varying from 2 to 16 plants m(-2), were implemented in a field experiment. Plants were either allowed to tiller or were maintained as uniculm by systematic tiller removal. In all cases, intercepted radiation was recorded daily and leaf area and shoot dry matter partitioning were quantified weekly at individual culm level. Up to anthesis, a unique relationship applied between fraction of intercepted radiation and leaf area index, and between shoot dry weight accumulation and amount of intercepted radiation, regardless of plant density. Partitioning of shoot assimilate between leaf, stem and head was also common across treatments up to anthesis, at both plant and culm levels. The relationship with thermal time (TT) from emergence of specific leaf area (SLA) and LAR of tillering plants did not change with plant density. In contrast, SLA of uniculm plants was appreciably lower under low-density conditions at any given TT from emergence. This was interpreted as a consequence of assimilate surplus arising from the inability of the plant to compensate by increasing the leaf area a culm could produce. It is argued that the stability of the extinction coefficient, RUE and plant LAR of tillering plants observed in these conditions provides a reliable way to predict leaf area production regardless of plant density. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Simulation of the micro-physics of rocks using LSMearth

The particle-based Lattice Solid Model (LSM) was developed to provide a basis to study the physics of rocks and the nonlinear dynamics of earthquakes (MORA and PLACE, 1994; PLACE and MORA, 1999). A new modular and flexible LSM approach has been developed that allows different microphysics to be easily included in or removed from the model. The approach provides a virtual laboratory where numerical experiments can easily be set up and all measurable quantities visualised. The proposed approach provides a means to simulate complex phenomena such as fracturing or localisation processes, and enables the effect of different micro-physics on macroscopic behaviour to be studied. The initial 2-D model is extended to allow three-dimensional simulations to be performed and particles of different sizes to be specified. Numerical bi-axial compression experiments under different confining pressure are used to calibrate the model. By tuning the different microscopic parameters (such as coefficient of friction, microscopic strength and distribution of grain sizes), the macroscopic strength of the material and can be adjusted to be in agreement with laboratory experiments, and the orientation of fractures is consistent with the theoretical value predicted based on Mohr-Coulomb diagram. Simulations indicate that 3-D numerical models have different macroscopic properties than in 2-D and, hence, the model must be recalibrated for 3-D simulations. These numerical experiments illustrate that the new approach is capable of simulating typical rock fracture behaviour. The new model provides a basis to investigate nucleation, rupture and slip pulse propagation in complex fault zones without the previous model limitations of a regular low-level surface geometry and being restricted to two-dimensions.

Simulation of the influence of rate- and state-dependent friction on the macroscopic behavior of complex fault zones with the lattice solid model

In order to understand the earthquake nucleation process, we need to understand the effective frictional behavior of faults with complex geometry and fault gouge zones. One important aspect of this is the interaction between the friction law governing the behavior of the fault on the microscopic level and the resulting macroscopic behavior of the fault zone. Numerical simulations offer a possibility to investigate the behavior of faults on many different scales and thus provide a means to gain insight into fault zone dynamics on scales which are not accessible to laboratory experiments. Numerical experiments have been performed to investigate the influence of the geometric configuration of faults with a rate- and state-dependent friction at the particle contacts on the effective frictional behavior of these faults. The numerical experiments are designed to be similar to laboratory experiments by DIETERICH and KILGORE (1994) in which a slide-hold-slide cycle was performed between two blocks of material and the resulting peak friction was plotted vs. holding time. Simulations with a flat fault without a fault gouge have been performed to verify the implementation. These have shown close agreement with comparable laboratory experiments. The simulations performed with a fault containing fault gouge have demonstrated a strong dependence of the critical slip distance D-c on the roughness of the fault surfaces and are in qualitative agreement with laboratory experiments.

Parallel simulation system for earthquake generation: Fault analysis modules and parallel coupling analysis

Solid earth simulations have recently been developed to address issues such as natural disasters, global environmental destruction and the conservation of natural resources. The simulation of solid earth phenomena involves the analysis of complex structures including strata, faults, and heterogeneous material properties. Simulation of the generation and cycle of earthquakes is particularly important, but such simulations require the analysis of complex fault dynamics. GeoFEM is a parallel finite-element analysis system intended for solid earth field phenomena problems. This paper describes recent development in the GeoFEM project for the simulation of earthquake generation and cycles.

An overview of APSIM, a model designed for farming systems simulation

The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is a modular modelling framework that has been developed by the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit in Australia. APSIM was developed to simulate biophysical process in farming systems, in particular where there is interest in the economic and ecological outcomes of management practice in the face of climatic risk. The paper outlines APSIM's structure and provides details of the concepts behind the different plant, soil and management modules. These modules include a diverse range of crops, pastures and trees, soil processes including water balance, N and P transformations, soil pH, erosion and a full range of management controls. Reports of APSIM testing in a diverse range of systems and environments are summarised. An example of model performance in a long-term cropping systems trial is provided. APSIM has been used in a broad range of applications, including support for on-farm decision making, farming systems design for production or resource management objectives, assessment of the value of seasonal climate forecasting, analysis of supply chain issues in agribusiness activities, development of waste management guidelines, risk assessment for government policy making and as a guide to research and education activity. An extensive citation list for these model testing and application studies is provided. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The Lake Tekapo experiment (LTEX): An investigation of atmospheric boundary layer processes in complex terrain

A research program on atmospheric boundary layer processes and local wind regimes in complex terrain was conducted in the vicinity of Lake Tekapo in the southern Alps of New Zealand, during two 1-month field campaigns in 1997 and 1999. The effects of the interaction of thermal and dynamic forcing were of specific interest, with a particular focus on the interaction of thermal forcing of differing scales. The rationale and objectives of the field and modeling program are described, along with the methodology used to achieve them. Specific research aims include improved knowledge of the role of surface forcing associated with varying energy balances across heterogeneous terrain, thermal influences on boundary layer and local wind development, and dynamic influences of the terrain through channeling effects. Data were collected using a network of surface meteorological and energy balance stations, radiosonde and pilot balloon soundings, tethered balloon and kite-based systems, sodar, and an instrumented light aircraft. These data are being used to investigate the energetics of surface heat fluxes, the effects of localized heating/cooling and advective processes on atmospheric boundary layer development, and dynamic channeling. A complementary program of numerical modeling includes application of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to case studies characterizing typical boundary layer structures and airflow patterns observed around Lake Tekapo. Some initial results derived from the special observation periods are used to illustrate progress made to date. In spite of the difficulties involved in obtaining good data and undertaking modeling experiments in such complex terrain, initial results show that surface thermal heterogeneity has a significant influence on local atmospheric structure and wind fields in the vicinity of the lake. This influence occurs particularly in the morning. However, dynamic channeling effects and the larger-scale thermal effect of the mountain region frequently override these more local features later in the day.

Influence of hysteresis on tidal capillary fringe dynamics in a well-sorted sand

Nielsen and Perrochet [Adv. Water Resour. 23 (2000) 503] presented experimental data for cyclic water movement in the vadose zone above an oscillating watertable. The response of the watertable to cyclic forcing was characterised by the ratios of the forcing head to watertable amplitudes and their associated phase lag. They found that their non-hysteretic Richards' equation model failed to represent the observed behaviour of these parameters. This paper explores the effect on the simulated capillary fringe dynamics (in terms of these parameters) of including varying degrees of hysteresis in the moisture retention curve used in a numerical model of their experiment. It is clear that hysteresis can indeed account for observed discrepancies between simulation and experiment and that the effect of hysteresis varies with the frequency of oscillation. The use of a single-valued mean retention curve, as advocated by some authors, fails to provide a match between the simulated and observed behaviour of the Nielsen and Perrochet parameters, but is shown to be adequate for predicting time-averaged soil moisture profiles. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An approach to verifying and debugging simulation models governed by ordinary differential equations: Part 1. Methodology for residual generation

For dynamic simulations to be credible, verification of the computer code must be an integral part of the modelling process. This two-part paper describes a novel approach to verification through program testing and debugging. In Part 1, a methodology is presented for detecting and isolating coding errors using back-to-back testing. Residuals are generated by comparing the output of two independent implementations, in response to identical inputs. The key feature of the methodology is that a specially modified observer is created using one of the implementations, so as to impose an error-dependent structure on these residuals. Each error can be associated with a fixed and known subspace, permitting errors to be isolated to specific equations in the code. It is shown that the geometric properties extend to multiple errors in either one of the two implementations. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

An approach to verifying and debugging simulation models governed by ordinary differential equations: Part 2. Residuals analysis and a case study

In Part 1 of this paper a methodology for back-to-back testing of simulation software was described. Residuals with error-dependent geometric properties were generated. A set of potential coding errors was enumerated, along with a corresponding set of feature matrices, which describe the geometric properties imposed on the residuals by each of the errors. In this part of the paper, an algorithm is developed to isolate the coding errors present by analysing the residuals. A set of errors is isolated when the subspace spanned by their combined feature matrices corresponds to that of the residuals. Individual feature matrices are compared to the residuals and classified as 'definite', 'possible' or 'impossible'. The status of 'possible' errors is resolved using a dynamic subset testing algorithm. To demonstrate and validate the testing methodology presented in Part 1 and the isolation algorithm presented in Part 2, a case study is presented using a model for biological wastewater treatment. Both single and simultaneous errors that are deliberately introduced into the simulation code are correctly detected and isolated. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Simulation supplements field studies to determine no-till dryland corn population recommendations for semiarid western Nebraska

In a 2-yr multiple-site field study conducted in western Nebraska during 1999 and 2000, optimum dryland corn (Zea mays L.) population varied from less than 1.7 to more than 5.6 plants m(-2), depending largely on available water resources. The objective of this study was to use a modeling approach to investigate corn population recommendations for a wide range of seasonal variation. A corn growth simulation model (APSIM-maize) was coupled to long-term sequences of historical climatic data from western Nebraska to provide probabilistic estimates of dryland yield for a range of corn populations. Simulated populations ranged from 2 to 5 plants m(-2). Simulations began with one of three levels of available soil water at planting, either 80, 160, or 240 mm in the surface 1.5 m of a loam soil. Gross margins were maximized at 3 plants m(-2) when starting available water was 160 or 240 mm, and the expected probability of a financial loss at this population was reduced from about 10% at 160 mm to 0% at 240 mm. When starting available water was 80 mm, average gross margins were less than $15 ha(-1), and risk of financial loss exceeded 40%. Median yields were greatest when starting available soil water was 240 mm. However, perhaps the greater benefit of additional soil water at planting was reduction in the risk of making a financial loss. Dryland corn growers in western Nebraska are advised to use a population of 3 plants m(-2) as a base recommendation.

Genotype and environment effects on dynamics of harvest index during grain filling in sorghum

An approach based on a linear rate of increase in harvest index (141) with time after anthesis has been used as a simple means-to predict grain growth and yield in many crop simulation models. When applied to diverse situations, however, this approach has been found to introduce significant error in grain yield predictions. Accordingly, this study was undertaken to examine the stability of the HI approach for yield prediction in sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench]. Four field experiments were conducted under nonlimiting water. and N conditions. The experiments were sown at times that ensured a broad range in temperature and radiation conditions. Treatments consisted of two population densities and three genotypes varying in maturity. Frequent sequential harvests were used to monitor crop growth, yield, and the dynamics of 111. Experiments varied greatly in yield and final HI. There was also a tendency for lower HI with later maturity. Harvest index dynamics also varied among experiments and, to a lesser extent, among treatments within experiments. The variation was associated mostly with the linear rate of increase in HI and timing of cessation of that increase. The average rate of HI increase was 0.0198 d(-1), but this was reduced considerably (0.0147) in one experiment that matured in cool conditions. The variations found in IN dynamics could be largely explained by differences in assimilation during grain filling and remobilization of preanthesis assimilate. We concluded that this level of variation in HI dynamics limited the general applicability of the HI approach in yield prediction and suggested a potential alternative for testing.

Continuous variable polarization entanglement, experiment and analysis

We generate and characterize continuous variable polarization entanglement between two optical beams. We first produce quadrature entanglement, and by performing local operations we transform it into a polarization basis. We extend two entanglement criteria, the inseparability criteria proposed by Duan et al (2000 Phys. Rev. Lett. 84 2722) and the Einstein–Podolsky–Rosen (EPR) paradox criteria proposed by Reid and Drummond (1988 Phys. Rev. Lett. 60 2731), to Stokes operators; and use them to characterize the entanglement. Our results for the EPR paradox criteria are visualized in terms of uncertainty balls on the Poincaré sphere. We demonstrate theoretically that using two quadrature entangled pairs it is possible to entangle three orthogonal Stokes operators between a pair of beams, although with a bound √3 times more stringent than for the quadrature entanglement.