On landslide risk, resilience and vulnerability of mountain communities in Central-Eastern Nepal

Executive SummaryIn Nepal, landslides are one of the major natural hazards after epidemics, killing over 100 persons per year. However, this figure is an underreported reflection of the actual impact that landslides have on livelihoods and food security in rural Nepal. With predictions of more intense rainfall patterns, landslide occurrence in the Himalayas is likely to increase and continue to be one of the major impediments to development. Due to the remoteness of many localities and lack of resources, responsibilities for disaster preparedness and response in mountain areas usually lie with the communities themselves. Everyday life is full of risk in mountains of Nepal. This is why mountain populations, as well as other populations living in harsh conditions have developed a number of coping strategies for dealing with adverse situations. Perhaps due to the dispersed and remote nature of landslides in Nepal, there have been few studies on vulnerability, coping- and mitigation strategies of landslide affected populations. There are also few recommendations available to guide authorities and populations how to reduce losses due to landslides in Nepal, and even less so, how to operationalize resilience and vulnerability.Many policy makers, international donors, NGOs and national authorities are currently asking what investments are needed to increase the so-called 'resilience' of mountain populations to deal with climate risks. However, mountain populations are already quite resilient to seasonal fluctuations, temperature variations, rainfall patterns and market prices. In spite of their resilience, they continue to live in places at risk due to high vulnerability caused by structural inequalities: access to land, resources, markets, education. This interdisciplinary thesis examines the concept of resilience by questioning its usefulness and validity as the current goal of international development and disaster risk reduction policies, its conceptual limitations and its possible scope of action. The goal of this study is two-fold: to better define and distinguish factors and relationships between resilience, vulnerability, capacities and risk; and to test and improve a participatory methodology for evaluating landslide risk that can serve as a guidance tool for improving community-based disaster risk reduction. The objective is to develop a simple methodology that can be used by NGOs, local authorities and communities to reduce losses from landslides.Through its six case studies in Central-Eastern Nepal, this study explores the relation between resilience, vulnerability and landslide risk based on interdisciplinary methods, including geological assessments of landslides, semi-structured interviews, focus groups and participatory risk mapping. For comparison, the study sites were chosen in Tehrathum, Sunsari and Dolakha Districts of Central/Eastern Nepal, to reflect a variety of landslide types, from chronic to acute, and a variety of communities, from very marginalized to very high status. The study uses the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach as its conceptual basis, which is based on the notion that access and rights to resources (natural, human/institutional, economic, environmental, physical) are the basis for coping with adversity, such as landslides. The study is also intended as a contribution to the growing literature and practices on Community Based Disaster Risk Reduction specifically adapted to landslide- prone areas.In addition to the six case studies, results include an indicator based methodology for assessing and measuring vulnerability and resilience, a composite risk assessment methodology, a typology of coping strategies and risk perceptions and a thorough analysis of the relation between risk, vulnerability and resilience. The methodology forassessing vulnerability, resilience and risk is relatively cost-effective and replicable in a low-data environment. Perhaps the major finding is that resilience is a process that defines a community's (or system's) capacity to rebound following adversity but it does not necessarily reduce vulnerability or risk, which requires addressing more structural issues related to poverty. Therefore, conclusions include a critical view of resilience as a main goal of international development and disaster risk reduction policies. It is a useful concept in the context of recovery after a disaster but it needs to be addressed in parallel with vulnerability and risk.This research was funded by an interdisciplinary grant (#26083591) from the Swiss National Science Foundation for the period 2009-2011 and a seed grant from the Faculty of Geosciences and Environment at the University of Lausanne in 2008.Résumé en françaisAu Népal, les glissements de terrain sont un des aléas les plus dévastateurs après les épidémies, causant 100 morts par an. Pourtant, ce chiffre est une sous-estimation de l'impact réel de l'effet des glissements sur les moyens de subsistance et la sécurité alimentaire au Népal. Avec des prévisions de pluies plus intenses, l'occurrence des glissements dans les Himalayas augmente et présente un obstacle au développement. Du fait de l'éloignement et du manque de ressources dans les montagnes au Népal, la responsabilité de la préparation et la réponse aux catastrophes se trouve chez les communautés elles-mêmes. Le risque fait partie de la vie quotidienne dans les montagnes du Népal. C'est pourquoi les populations montagnardes, comme d'autres populations vivant dans des milieux contraignants, ont développé des stratégies pour faire face aux situations défavorables. Peu d'études existent sur la vulnérabilité, ceci étant probablement dû à l'éloignement et pourtant, les stratégies d'adaptation et de mitigation des populations touchées par des glissements au Népal existent.Beaucoup de décideurs politiques, bailleurs de fonds, ONG et autorités nationales se demandent quels investissements sont nécessaires afin d'augmenter la 'resilience' des populations de montagne pour faire face aux changements climatiques. Pourtant, ces populations sont déjà résilientes aux fluctuations des saisons, des variations de température, des pluies et des prix des marchés. En dépit de leur résilience, ils continuent de vivre dans des endroits à fort risque à cause des vulnérabilités créées par les inégalités structurelles : l'accès à la terre, aux ressources, aux marchés et à l'éducation. Cette thèse interdisciplinaire examine le concept de la résilience en mettant en cause son utilité et sa validité en tant que but actuel des politiques internationales de développement et de réduction des risques, ainsi que ses limitations conceptuelles et ses possibles champs d'action. Le but de cette étude est double : mieux définir et distinguer les facteurs et relations entre la résilience, la vulnérabilité, les capacités et le risque ; Et tester et améliorer une méthode participative pour évaluer le risque des glissements qui peut servir en tant qu'outil indicatif pour améliorer la réduction des risques des communautés. Le but est de développer une méthodologie simple qui peut être utilisée par des ONG, autorités locales et communautés pour réduire les pertes dues aux glissements.A travers les études de cas au centre-est du Népal, cette étude explore le rapport entre la résilience, la vulnérabilité et les glissements basée sur des méthodes interdisciplinaires ; Y sont inclus des évaluations géologiques des glissements, des entretiens semi-dirigés, des discussions de groupes et des cartes de risques participatives. Pour la comparaison, les zones d'études ont été sélectionnées dans les districts de Tehrathum, Sunsari et Dolakha dans le centre-est du Népal, afin de refléter différents types de glissements, de chroniques à urgents, ainsi que différentes communautés, variant de très marginalisées à très haut statut. Pour son cadre conceptuel, cette étude s'appuie sur l'approche de moyens de subsistance durable, qui est basée sur les notions d'accès et de droit aux ressources (naturelles, humaines/institutionnelles, économiques, environnementales, physiques) et qui sont le minimum pour faire face à des situations difficiles, comme des glissements. Cette étude se veut aussi une contribution à la littérature et aux pratiques en croissantes sur la réduction des risques communautaires, spécifiquement adaptées aux zones affectées par des glissements.En plus des six études de cas, les résultats incluent une méthodologie basée sur des indicateurs pour évaluer et mesurer la vulnérabilité et la résilience, une méthodologie sur le risque composé, une typologie de stratégies d'adaptation et perceptions des risques ainsi qu'une analyse fondamentale de la relation entre risque, vulnérabilité et résilience. Les méthodologies pour l'évaluation de la vulnérabilité, de la résilience et du risque sont relativement peu coûteuses et reproductibles dans des endroits avec peu de données disponibles. Le résultat probablement le plus pertinent est que la résilience est un processus qui définit la capacité d'une communauté (ou d'un système) à rebondir suite à une situation défavorable, mais qui ne réduit pas forcement la vulnérabilité ou le risque, et qui requiert une approche plus fondamentale s'adressant aux questions de pauvreté. Les conclusions incluent une vue critique de la résilience comme but principal des politiques internationales de développement et de réduction des risques. C'est un concept utile dans le contexte de la récupération après une catastrophe mais il doit être pris en compte au même titre que la vulnérabilité et le risque.Cette recherche a été financée par un fonds interdisciplinaire (#26083591) du Fonds National Suisse pour la période 2009-2011 et un fonds de préparation de recherches par la Faculté des Géosciences et Environnement à l'Université de Lausanne en 2008.

IMPROVING FLOW DISTRIBUTION IN SMALL-SCALE WATER-SUPPLY SYSTEMS THROUGH THE USE OF FLOW-REDUCING DISCS AND METHODS FOR ANALYZING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF SOLAR POWERED PUMPING FOR A DRINKING WATER SUPPLY IN RURAL PANAMA

As continued global funding and coordination are allocated toward the improvement of access to safe sources of drinking water, alternative solutions may be necessary to expand implementation to remote communities. This report evaluates two technologies used in a small water distribution system in a mountainous region of Panama; solar powered pumping and flow-reducing discs. The two parts of the system function independently, but were both chosen for their ability to mitigate unique issues in the community. The design program NeatWork and flow-reducing discs were evaluated because they are tools taught to Peace Corps Volunteers in Panama. Even when ample water is available, mountainous terrains affect the pressure available throughout a water distribution system. Since the static head in the system only varies with the height of water in the tank, frictional losses from pipes and fittings must be exploited to balance out the inequalities caused by the uneven terrain. Reducing the maximum allowable flow to connections through the installation of flow-reducing discs can help to retain enough residual pressure in the main distribution lines to provide reliable service to all connections. NeatWork was calibrated to measured flow rates by changing the orifice coefficient (θ), resulting in a value of 0.68, which is 10-15% higher than typical values for manufactured flow-reducing discs. NeatWork was used to model various system configurations to determine if a single-sized flow-reducing disc could provide equitable flow rates throughout an entire system. There is a strong correlation between the optimum single-sized flow- reducing disc and the average elevation change throughout a water distribution system; the larger the elevation change across the system, the smaller the recommended uniform orifice size. Renewable energy can jump the infrastructure gap and provide basic services at a fraction of the cost and time required to install transmission lines. Methods for the assessment of solar powered pumping systems as a means for rural water supply are presented and assessed. It was determined that manufacturer provided product specifications can be used to appropriately design a solar pumping system, but care must be taken to ensure that sufficient water can be provided to the system despite variations in solar intensity.

Kidney and related chronic disease profiles and risk factors in three remote Australian Aboriginal communities

Morbidities and deaths from noncommunicable chronic diseases are greatly increased in remote Australian Aboriginal communities, but little is known of the underlying community-based health profiles. We describe chronic-disease profiles and their risk factors in 3 remote communities in the Northern Territory. Consenting adults (18+ years of age) in 3 communities participated in a brief history and examination between 2000 and mid-2003 as part of a systematic program to improve chronic-disease awareness and management. Participation was 67%,128%, and 62% in communities A, B, and C, respectively with a total of 1070 people examined. Current smokers included 41% of females and 72% of males. Most men were current drinkers, but most women were not. Parameters of body weight differed markedly by community, with mean body mass index (BMC) varying from 21.4 to 27.9 kg/m(2). Rates of chronic diseases were excessive but differed markedly; an almost threefold difference in the likelihood of any morbidity existed between communities A and C. Rates increased with age, but the greatest numbers of people with morbidities were in the middle-aged group. Most people had multiple morbidities with tremendous overlap. Hypertension and kidney disease appear to be early manifestations of the integrated chronic-disease syndrome, while diabetes is a late manifestation or complication. Substantial numbers of new cases of disease were identified by testing, and blood pressure improved in treated people with hypertension. Wide variations occur in body habitus, risk factors, and chronic-disease rates among communities, but an overwhelming need for effective smoking interventions exists in all. Systematic screening is useful in identifying high-risk individuals, most at early treatable stages there. Findings are very important for estimating current treatment needs, future burdens of disease, and for needs-based health services planning. Resources required will vary according to the burden of disease. (C) 2005 by the National Kidney Foundation, Inc.

Proposed network of mobile libraries: alternative information to rural communities in Costa Rica

This study examines the services provided by the bookmobile of SINABI-Public Libraries in rural communities visited Costa Rica during 2009 and 2010 according to the sample selected for the presentation of a proposed Mobile Library Network to Costa Rica.Each country has very heterogeneous populations and the populations in unfavorable geographical areas (rural or urban fringe areas) and areas without library service or cultural institution, they have specific information needs. By its terms can not exercise the right to information, while urban areas have greater influence and social advantage to have easy access to various information resources.The mobile library services are presented as an ideal tool to deliver library services to any population, mainly those remote communities and vulnerable state as rural areas. Bookmobile is defined as any means of transport (buses, trains, boats, motorcycles, boats, animals, etc.), which shifts documentary material.

High prevalence of asthma in five remote indigenous communities in Australia

Data on the prevalence of asthma in children residing in remote indigenous communities in Australia are sparse, despite the many reports of high prevalence in nonindigenous children of this country. Two previous Australian studies have had poor participation rates, limiting interpretation of their results. A study of children in the Torres Strait and Northern Peninsula Area of Australia was conducted to document the prevalence of asthma symptoms. Five indigenous communities were randomly selected and trained interviewers, who were local indigenous health workers, recruited participants using a house-by-house approach. Information was collected by a structured face-to-face interview based on standardized questionnaire constructed from the protocol International Study of Asthma and Allergy in Childhood; 1,650 children were included in the study with a 98% response rate. Overall, the prevalence of self-reported ever wheezing was 21%,; 12% reported wheezing in the previous year; and 16%, reported ever having asthma, There was significant variation in the prevalence of asthma symptoms between communities. It is concluded that there are significant intercommunity variations in the prevalence of asthma symptoms in remote communities and that the prevalence in these communities is as high as in nonindigenous groups.

Differentiated normalization and drug transitions among rural youth in Ireland.

Prevalence surveys in Ireland indicate an increased trend of youth drug use with rural areas reporting comparable drug availability and prevalence of use in urban settings (Currie, C., Nic Gabhainn, S., Godeau, E., Roberts, C., Smith, R., & Currie, D. (Eds.). (2008). Inequalities in young people's health: HBSC international report from the 2005/2006 survey. Copenhagen: WHO Regional Office for Europe). Few studies have explored the contexts and meaning of drug use on rural youth transitions in terms of increased drug prevalence, recent influx of rural drug activity, normative tolerance of recreational drug consumption and fragmentation of traditional rural communities. Qualitative interviews were conducted with 220 young people (15–17 years), and 78 service providers in a rural area of Ireland, in order to yield contextualized narratives of their experiences of drug use and achieve a wider exploration of processes, drug transitions and realities of rural youth. The thematic analysis of the research described varied pathways, attitudes and typologies of rural youth drug use, ranging from abstinent, recreational and moderated to maturing out. The research suggests support for a ‘differentiated’ normalization theory (Shildrick, T. (2002). Young people, illicit drug use and the question of normalisation theory. Journal of Youth Studies, 5, 35–48) in terms of consumerist and normative rural youth drug use transitions in their negotiation of risk within integrating rural and urban dichotomies. In conclusion, it is recommended that drug education programmes need to situate localized rural drug taking behaviours within a wider understanding of rural community life.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Diagnostic reliability of an immunochromatographic test for Chagas disease screening at a primary health care centre in a rural endemic area

Many patients with Chagas disease live in remote communities that lack both equipment and trained personnel to perform a diagnosis by conventional serology (CS). Thus, reliable tests suitable for use under difficult conditions are required. In this study, we evaluated the ability of personnel with and without laboratory skills to perform immunochromatographic (IC) tests to detect Chagas disease at a primary health care centre (PHCC). We examined whole blood samples from 241 patients and serum samples from 238 patients. Then, we calculated the percentage of overall agreement (POA) between the two groups of operators for the sensitivity (S), specificity (Sp) and positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values of IC tests compared to CS tests. We also evaluated the level of agreement between ELISAs and indirect haemagglutination (IHA) tests. The readings of the IC test results showed 100% agreement (POA = 1). The IC test on whole blood showed the following values: S = 87.3%; Sp = 98.8%; PPV = 96.9% and NPV = 95.9%. Additionally, the IC test on serum displayed the following results: S = 95.7%; Sp = 100%; PPV = 100% and NPV = 98.2%. Using whole blood, the agreement with ELISA was 96.3% and the agreement with IHA was 94.1%. Using serum, the agreement with ELISA was 97.8% and the agreement with IHA was 96.6%. The IC test performance with serum samples was excellent and demonstrated its usefulness in a PHCC with minimal equipment. If the IC test S value and NPV with whole blood are improved, then this test could also be used in areas lacking laboratories or specialised personnel.

Evaluation of Low Cost Traffic Calming for Rural Communities – Phase II, April 2013

The main goal of the research described in this report was to evaluate countermeasures that agencies can use to reduce speeds as drivers enter rural communities located on high-speed roadways. The objectives of this study were as follows: * Identify and summarize countermeasures used to manage speeds in transition zones * Demonstrate the effectiveness of countermeasures that are practical for high- to low-speed transition zones * Acquire additional information about countermeasures that may show promise but lack sufficient evidence of effectiveness * Develop an application toolbox to assist small communities in selecting appropriate transition zones and effective countermeasures for entrances to small rural communities The team solicited small communities that were interested in participating in the Phase II study and several communities were also recommended. The treatments evaluated were selected by carefully considering traffic-calming treatments that have been used effectively in other countries for small rural communities, as well as the information gained from the first phase of the project. The treatments evaluated are as follows: * Transverse speed bars * Colored entrance treatment * Temporary island * Radar-activated speed limit sign * Speed feedback sign The toolbox publication and four focused tech briefs also cover the results of this work.

Evaluation of Low Cost Traffic Calming for Rural Communities – Phase II [Updated], TR-630, October, 2013

The main goal of the research described in this report was to evaluate countermeasures that agencies can use to reduce speeds as drivers enter rural communities located on high-speed roadways. The objectives of this study were as follows: * Identify and summarize countermeasures used to manage speeds in transition zones * Demonstrate the effectiveness of countermeasures that are practical for high- to low-speed transition zones * Acquire additional information about countermeasures that may show promise but lack sufficient evidence of effectiveness * Develop an application toolbox to assist small communities in selecting appropriate transition zones and effective countermeasures for entrances to small rural communities The team solicited small communities that were interested in participating in the Phase II study and several communities were also recommended. The treatments evaluated were selected by carefully considering traffic-calming treatments that have been used effectively in other countries for small rural communities, as well as the information gained from the first phase of the project. The treatments evaluated are as follows: * Transverse speed bars * Colored entrance treatment * Temporary island * Radar-activated speed limit sign * Speed feedback sign The toolbox publication and four focused tech briefs also cover the results of this work.

Construction and Maintenance Practices to Minimize the Potential Liability of Counties for Roads in Rural Subdivisions, HR-221, 1981

In an earlier research project, HR-204, the magnitude and nature of highway related tort claims against counties in Iowa were investigated. However, virtually all of the claims identified in that research resulted from incidents that occurred in areas with predominantly agricultural land use. With recent increases in the rural non-farm population, many traditionally urban problems are also appearing in built-up areas under county jurisdiction. This trend is expected to continue so that counties must anticipate a change in the nature of the tort claims they will encounter. Problems that heretofore have been unique to cities may become commonplace in areas for which counties are responsible. The research reported here has been directed toward an investigation of those problems in rural subdivisions that lead to claims growing out of the provision of highway services by counties. Lacking a sufficient database among counties for the types of tort claims of interest in this research, a survey was sent to 259 cities in Iowa in order to identify highway related problems leading to those claims. The survey covered claims during a five year period from 1975 to 1980. Over one-third of the claims reported were based on alleged street defects. Another 34 percent of the claims contained allegations of damages due to backup of sanitary sewers or defects in sidewalks. By expanding the sample from the 164 cities that responded to the survey, it was estimated that a total of $49,000,000 in claims had been submitted to all 259 cities. Over 34% of this amount resulted from alleged defects in the use of traffic signs, signals, and markings. Another 42% arose from claims of defects in streets and sidewalks. Payments in settlement of claims were about 13.4% of the amount asked for those claims closed during the period covered by the survey. About $9,000,000 in claims was pending on June 30, 1980 according to the information furnished. Officials from 23 cities were interviewed to provide information on measures to overcome the problems leading to tort claims. On the basis of this information, actions have been proposed that can be undertaken by counties to reduce the potential for highway-related claims resulting from their responsibilities in rural subdivisions and unincorporated communities. Suggested actions include the eight recommendations contained in the final report for the previous research under HR-204. In addition, six recommendations resulted from this research, as follows: 1. Counties should adopt county subdivision ordinances. 2. A reasonable policy concerning sidewalks should be adopted. 3. Counties should establish and implement a system for setting road maintenance priorities. 4. Counties should establish and implement a procedure for controlling construction or maintenance activities within the highway right of way. 5. Counties should establish and implement a system to record complaints that are received relating to highway maintenance and to assure timely correction of defective conditions leading to such complaints. 6. Counties should establish and implement a procedure to ensure timely advice of highway defects for which notice is not otherwise received.

Changes of traditional farming systems and their effects on land degradation and socio-economic conditions in the Inle Lake region, Myanmar

At many locations in Myanmar, ongoing changes in land use have negative environmental impacts and threaten natural ecosystems at local, regional and national scales. In particular, the watershed area of Inle Lake in eastern Myanmar is strongly affected by the environmental effects of deforestation and soil erosion caused by agricultural intensification and expansion of agricultural land, which are exacerbated by the increasing population pressure and the growing number of tourists. This thesis, therefore, focuses on land use changes in traditional farming systems and their effects on socio-economic and biophysical factors to improve our understanding of sustainable natural resource management of this wetland ecosystem. The main objectives of this research were to: (1) assess the noticeable land transformations in space and time, (2) identify the typical farming systems as well as the divergent livelihood strategies, and finally, (3) estimate soil erosion risk in the different agro-ecological zones surrounding the Inle Lake watershed area. GIS and remote sensing techniques allowed to identify the dynamic land use and land cover changes (LUCC) during the past 40 years based on historical Corona images (1968) and Landsat images (1989, 2000 and 2009). In this study, 12 land cover classes were identified and a supervised classification was used for the Landsat datasets, whereas a visual interpretation approach was conducted for the Corona images. Within the past 40 years, the main landscape transformation processes were deforestation (- 49%), urbanization (+ 203%), agricultural expansion (+ 34%) with a notably increase of floating gardens (+ 390%), land abandonment (+ 167%), and marshlands losses in wetland area (- 83%) and water bodies (- 16%). The main driving forces of LUCC appeared to be high population growth, urbanization and settlements, a lack of sustainable land use and environmental management policies, wide-spread rural poverty, an open market economy and changes in market prices and access. To identify the diverse livelihood strategies in the Inle Lake watershed area and the diversity of income generating activities, household surveys were conducted (total: 301 households) using a stratified random sampling design in three different agro-ecological zones: floating gardens (FG), lowland cultivation (LL) and upland cultivation (UP). A cluster and discriminant analysis revealed that livelihood strategies and socio-economic situations of local communities differed significantly in the different zones. For all three zones, different livelihood strategies were identified which differed mainly in the amount of on-farm and off-farm income, and the level of income diversification. The gross margin for each household from agricultural production in the floating garden, lowland and upland cultivation was US$ 2108, 892 and 619 ha-1 respectively. Among the typical farming systems in these zones, tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum L.) plantation in the floating gardens yielded the highest net benefits, but caused negative environmental impacts given the overuse of inorganic fertilizers and pesticides. The Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and spatial analysis within GIS were applied to estimate soil erosion risk in the different agricultural zones and for the main cropping systems of the study region. The results revealed that the average soil losses in year 1989, 2000 and 2009 amounted to 20, 10 and 26 t ha-1, respectively and barren land along the steep slopes had the highest soil erosion risk with 85% of the total soil losses in the study area. Yearly fluctuations were mainly caused by changes in the amount of annual precipitation and the dynamics of LUCC such as deforestation and agriculture extension with inappropriate land use and unsustainable cropping systems. Among the typical cropping systems, upland rainfed rice (Oryza sativa L.) cultivation had the highest rate of soil erosion (20 t ha-1yr-1) followed by sebesten (Cordia dichotoma) and turmeric (Curcuma longa) plantation in the UP zone. This study indicated that the hotspot region of soil erosion risk were upland mountain areas, especially in the western part of the Inle lake. Soil conservation practices are thus urgently needed to control soil erosion and lake sedimentation and to conserve the wetland ecosystem. Most farmers have not yet implemented soil conservation measures to reduce soil erosion impacts such as land degradation, sedimentation and water pollution in Inle Lake, which is partly due to the low economic development and poverty in the region. Key challenges of agriculture in the hilly landscapes can be summarized as follows: fostering the sustainable land use of farming systems for the maintenance of ecosystem services and functions while improving the social and economic well-being of the population, integrated natural resources management policies and increasing the diversification of income opportunities to reduce pressure on forest and natural resources.

Near real-time flood detection in urban and rural areas using high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar images

A near real-time flood detection algorithm giving a synoptic overview of the extent of flooding in both urban and rural areas, and capable of working during night-time and day-time even if cloud was present, could be a useful tool for operational flood relief management. The paper describes an automatic algorithm using high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite data that builds on existing approaches, including the use of image segmentation techniques prior to object classification to cope with the very large number of pixels in these scenes. Flood detection in urban areas is guided by the flood extent derived in adjacent rural areas. The algorithm assumes that high resolution topographic height data are available for at least the urban areas of the scene, in order that a SAR simulator may be used to estimate areas of radar shadow and layover. The algorithm proved capable of detecting flooding in rural areas using TerraSAR-X with good accuracy, classifying 89% of flooded pixels correctly, with an associated false positive rate of 6%. Of the urban water pixels visible to TerraSAR-X, 75% were correctly detected, with a false positive rate of 24%. If all urban water pixels were considered, including those in shadow and layover regions, these figures fell to 57% and 18% respectively.

Rural property size drives patterns of upland and riparian forest retention in a tropical deforestation frontier

Deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia accounts for a disproportionate global scale fraction of both carbon emissions from biomass burning and biodiversity erosion through habitat loss. Here we use field- and remote-sensing data to examine the effects of private landholding size on the amount and type of forest cover retained within economically active rural properties in an aging southern Amazonian deforestation frontier. Data on both upland and riparian forest cover from a survey of 300 rural properties indicated that 49.4% (SD = 29.0%) of the total forest cover was maintained as of 2007. and that property size is a key regional-scale determinant of patterns of deforestation and land-use change. Small properties (<= 150 ha) retained a lower proportion of forest (20.7%, SD = 17.6) than did large properties (>150 ha; 55.6%, SD = 27.2). Generalized linear models showed that property size had a positive effect on remaining areas of both upland and total forest cover. Using a Landsat time-series, the age of first clear-cutting that could be mapped within the boundaries of each property had a negative effect on the proportion of upland, riparian, and total forest cover retained. Based on these data, we show contrasts in land-use strategies between smallholders and largeholders, as well as differences in compliance with legal requirements in relation to minimum forest cover set-asides within private landholdings. This suggests that property size structure must be explicitly considered in landscape-scale conservation planning initiatives guiding agro-pastoral frontier expansion into remaining areas of tropical forest. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rural property size drives patterns of upland and riparian forest retention in a tropical deforestation frontier

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Urban Expansion and its impact on urban agriculture - remote sensing based change analysis of Kizinga and Mzinga Valley - Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania

Urban agriculture is a phenomenon that can be observed world-wide, particularly in cities of devel- oping countries. It is contributing significantly to food security and food safety and has sustained livelihood of the urban and peri-urban low income dwe llers in developing countries for many years. Population increase due to rural-urban migration and natural - formal as well as informal - urbani- sation are competing with urban farming for available space and scarce water resources. A mul- titemporal and multisensoral urban change analysis over the period of 25 years (1982-2007) was performed in order to measure and visualise the urban expansion along the Kizinga and Mzinga valley in the south of Dar Es Salaam. Airphotos and VHR satellite data were analysed by using a combination of a composition of anisotropic textural measures and spectral information. The study revealed that unplanned built-up area is expanding continuously, and vegetation covers and agricultural lands decline at a fast rate. The validation showed that the overall classification accuracy varied depending on the database. The extracted built-up areas were used for visual in- terpretation mapping purposes and served as information source for another research project. The maps visualise an urban congestion and expansion of nearly 18% of the total analysed area that had taken place in the Kizinga valley between 1982 and 2007. The same development can be ob- served in the less developed and more remote Mzinga valley between 1981 and 2002. Both areas underwent fast changes where land prices still tend to go up and an influx of people both from rural and urban areas continuously increase the density with the consequence of increasing multiple land use interests.