Framework for Traffic Pattern Identification: Required Step for Short-term Forecasting

In the world of transport management, the term ‘anticipation’ is gradually replacing ‘reaction’. Indeed, the ability to forecast traffic evolution in a network should ideally form the basis for many traffic management strategies and multiple ITS applications. Real-time prediction capabilities are therefore becoming a concrete need for the management of networks, both for urban and interurban environments, and today’s road operator has increasingly complex and exacting requirements. Recognising temporal patterns in traffic or the manner in which sequential traffic events evolve over time have been important considerations in short-term traffic forecasting. However, little work has been conducted in the area of identifying or associating traffic pattern occurrence with prevailing traffic conditions. This paper presents a framework for detection pattern identification based on finite mixture models using the EM algorithm for parameter estimation. The computation results have been conducted taking into account the traffic data available in an urban network.

Shaping urban traffic patterns through congestion charging : What factors drive success or failure?

Congestion costs are emerging as one of the most important challenges faced by metropolitan planners and transport authorities in first world economies. In US these costs were as high as 78 million dollars in 2005 and are growing due to fast increases in travel delays. In order to solve the current and severe levels of congestion the US department of transportation have recently started a program to initiate congestion pricing in five metropolitan areas. In this context it is important to determine those factors helping its implementation and success, but also the problems or difficulties associated with charging projects. In this article we analyze worldwide experiences with urban road charging in order to extract interesting and helpful lessons for policy makers engaged in congestion pricing projects and for those interested in the introduction of traffic management tools to regulate the entrance to big cities.

Motorways, tolls and road safety. Evidence from European Panel Data

The use of tolls is being widespread around the world. Its ability to fund infrastructure projects and to solve budget constraints have been the main rationale behind its renewed interest. However, less attention has been payed to the safety effects derived from this policy in a moment of increasing concern on road fatalities. Pricing best infrastructures shifts some drivers onto worse alternative roads usually not prepared to receive high traffic in comparable safety standards. In this paper we provide evidence of the existence of this perverse consequence by using an international European panel in a two way fixed effects estimation.

Experimental analysis of optimization techniques on the road passenger transportation problem

Analyzing the state of the art in a given field in order to tackle a new problem is always a mandatory task. Literature provides surveys based on summaries of previous studies, which are often based on theoretical descriptions of the methods. An engineer, however, requires some evidence from experimental evaluations in order to make the appropriate decision when selecting a technique for a problem. This is what we have done in this paper: experimentally analyzed a set of representative state-of-the-art techniques in the problem we are dealing with, namely, the road passenger transportation problem. This is an optimization problem in which drivers should be assigned to transport services, fulfilling some constraints and minimizing some function cost. The experimental results have provided us with good knowledge of the properties of several methods, such as modeling expressiveness, anytime behavior, computational time, memory requirements, parameters, and free downloadable tools. Based on our experience, we are able to choose a technique to solve our problem. We hope that this analysis is also helpful for other engineers facing a similar problem

Cargo Traffic on the Helsinki-Tallinn Route

The twin-city model has found to increase economical activity and well-being. The similar economical, social and cultural background of Finland and Estonia as well as the EU integration give good preconditions to create a twin-city of Helsinki and Tallinn. The relatively long distance between Helsinki and Tallinn is challenging. Therefore, good transport infrastructure and functioning connections are required to form a twin-city of Helsinki and Tallinn. The connections between these cities can be considered also in broader perspective than only from the viewpoint of the twin-city concept. New markets areas have been emerged in Europe due to collapse of planned economy and integration of Europe. Also the transport routes to the markets are changing. The Hel-sinki-Tallinn sea route can be considered as a fast route to the new markets in the Cen-tral and Eastern Europe. The Helsinki-Tallinn sea route is also a potential route to the Western European markets. This study provides an analysis of transport and cargo flows between Finland and Esto-nia for regional and local planners. The main purpose of the study is to clarify the pre-sent situation of the seaborne cargo flows on the Helsinki-Tallinn route and how the cargo flows will develop in the future. The study focuses on the following thematic enti-ties: the Finnish and Estonian seaborne transport system and cargo flows, the structure and volume of the cargo flows on the Helsinki-Tallinn route, the hinterland cargo flows on the Helsinki-Tallinn route and the transport methods used on the Helsinki-Tallinn route. The study was carried out as a desk research, a statistical analysis and an inter-view study during the spring–autumn 2011. The study reveals that during the period 2002–2010 the volume of the seaborne cargo traffic between Finland and Estonia has increased significantly while the trend of the trade volume between Finland and Estonia has remained nearly constant. This indicates that the route via Estonia is increasingly used in the Finnish foreign trade. Because the ports of Helsinki and Tallinn are the main ports in the cargo traffic between Finland and Estonia, the role of the Helsinki-Tallinn route as a sea leg in the hinterland connections of Finland has increased. The growth of the cargo volume on the Helsinki-Tallinn route was estimated to continue on the annual level of 10 % during the next couple of years. In the long run the growth of the cargo volumes depends on the economical and indus-trial development of the former Eastern European countries. If the IMO’s sulphur regu-lations will come in force, the Helsinki-Tallinn route will become one of the main routes also to the Western European markets, besides of the route via Sweden. The study also shows that the fast and reliable connections year round on the Helsinki-Tallinn route have made it possible for service and logistics companies to reconsider their logistics strategies in a new way in the both side of the Gulf of Finland. Anyway, the ropax concept is seen as the only economical profitable solution on the Helsinki-Tallinn route because cargo and passenger traffic are supporting each other. The trucks (vehicle combinations) will remain the main mode of transport on the Helsinki-Tallinn route because general cargo is the main commodity on the route. IMO’s sulphur regula-tions and the changes in the structure of the Finnish industry may create prerequisites for rail road transport in the hinterland connections of Finland. The twin-city model has found to increase economical activity and well-being. The similar economical, social and cultural background of Finland and Estonia as well as the EU integration give good preconditions to create a twin-city of Helsinki and Tallinn. The relatively long distance between Helsinki and Tallinn is challenging. Therefore, good transport infrastructure and functioning connections are required to form a twin-city of Helsinki and Tallinn. The connections between these cities can be considered also in broader perspective than only from the viewpoint of the twin-city concept. New markets areas have been emerged in Europe due to collapse of planned economy and integration of Europe. Also the transport routes to the markets are changing. The Hel-sinki-Tallinn sea route can be considered as a fast route to the new markets in the Cen-tral and Eastern Europe. The Helsinki-Tallinn sea route is also a potential route to the Western European markets. This study provides an analysis of transport and cargo flows between Finland and Esto-nia for regional and local planners. The main purpose of the study is to clarify the pre-sent situation of the seaborne cargo flows on the Helsinki-Tallinn route and how the cargo flows will develop in the future. The study focuses on the following thematic enti-ties: the Finnish and Estonian seaborne transport system and cargo flows, the structure and volume of the cargo flows on the Helsinki-Tallinn route, the hinterland cargo flows on the Helsinki-Tallinn route and the transport methods used on the Helsinki-Tallinn route. The study was carried out as a desk research, a statistical analysis and an inter-view study during the spring–autumn 2011. The study reveals that during the period 2002–2010 the volume of the seaborne cargo traffic between Finland and Estonia has increased significantly while the trend of the trade volume between Finland and Estonia has remained nearly constant. This indicates that the route via Estonia is increasingly used in the Finnish foreign trade. Because the ports of Helsinki and Tallinn are the main ports in the cargo traffic between Finland and Estonia, the role of the Helsinki-Tallinn route as a sea leg in the hinterland connections of Finland has increased. The growth of the cargo volume on the Helsinki-Tallinn route was estimated to continue on the annual level of 10 % during the next couple of years. In the long run the growth of the cargo volumes depends on the economical and indus-trial development of the former Eastern European countries. If the IMO’s sulphur regu-lations will come in force, the Helsinki-Tallinn route will become one of the main routes also to the Western European markets, besides of the route via Sweden. The study also shows that the fast and reliable connections year round on the Helsinki-Tallinn route have made it possible for service and logistics companies to reconsider their logistics strategies in a new way in the both side of the Gulf of Finland. Anyway, the ropax concept is seen as the only economical profitable solution on the Helsinki-Tallinn route because cargo and passenger traffic are supporting each other. The trucks (vehicle combinations) will remain the main mode of transport on the Helsinki-Tallinn route because general cargo is the main commodity on the route. IMO’s sulphur regula-tions and the changes in the structure of the Finnish industry may create prerequisites for rail road transport in the hinterland connections of Finland.

Scenario-based traffic forecasts for the routes between the PENTA ports in 2020

Maritime transport is the foundation for trade in the Baltic Sea area. It represents over 15% of the world’s cargo traffic and it is predicted to increase by over 100% in the future. There are currently over 2,000 ships sailing on the Baltic Sea and both the number and the size of ships have been growing in recent years. Due to the importance of maritime traffic in the Baltic Sea Region, ports have to be ready to face future challenges and adapt to the changing operational environment. The companies within the transportation industry – in this context ports, shipowners and logistics companies – compete continuously and although the number of companies in the business is not particularly substantial because the products offered are very similar, other motives for managing the supply chain arise. The factors creating competitive advantage are often financial and related to cost efficiency, but geographical location, road infrastructure in the hinterland and vessel connections are among the most important factors. The PENTA project focuses on adding openness, transparency and sharing knowledge and information, so that the challenges of the future can be better addressed with regard to cooperation. This report presents three scenario-based traffic forecasts for routes between the PENTA ports in 2020. The chosen methodology is PESTE, in which the focus in on economic factors affecting future traffic flows. The report further analyses the findings and results of the first PENTA WP2 report “Drivers of demand in cargo and passenger traffic between PENTA ports” and utilises the same material, which was obtained through interviews and mail surveys.

Automatic traffic sign inventory- and condition analysis

This thesis researches automatic traffic sign inventory and condition analysis using machine vision and pattern recognition methods. Automatic traffic sign inventory and condition analysis can be used to more efficient road maintenance, improving the maintenance processes, and to enable intelligent driving systems. Automatic traffic sign detection and classification has been researched before from the viewpoint of self-driving vehicles, driver assistance systems, and the use of signs in mapping services. Machine vision based inventory of traffic signs consists of detection, classification, localization, and condition analysis of traffic signs. The produced machine vision system performance is estimated with three datasets, from which two of have been been collected for this thesis. Based on the experiments almost all traffic signs can be detected, classified, and located and their condition analysed. In future, the inventory system performance has to be verified in challenging conditions and the system has to be pilot tested.

Environnement dissuasif, risques et stratégies délinquantes

L‟utilité de la théorie de la dissuasion est régulièrement remise en question pour expliquer la relation entre les peines et la criminalité puisque les propriétés objectives de la peine ne semblent pas affecter les taux de criminalité, les perceptions que s‟en font les individus et la récidive des délinquants. Trois limites conceptuelles des auteurs qui remettent en question la dissuasion sont soulevées. Premièrement, les unités spatiales utilisées sont des territoires sur lesquels plusieurs corps policiers sont en fonction. Il y a donc peu de chances que tous les citoyens présents soient exposés au même message pénal. Deuxièmement, les chercheurs ont mesuré le risque objectif d‟être arrêté à l‟aide d‟un ratio entre le nombre d‟arrestations et le nombre de crimes rapportés. Cette conceptualisation est problématique puisque les résultats d‟autres études suggèrent que les citoyens ont peu de connaissances des propriétés objectives et qu‟il serait, ainsi, intéressant de se référer aux stimuli dissuasifs pour conceptualiser la notion de risques. Troisièmement, pour plusieurs chercheurs, la délinquance est considérée comme une activité pour laquelle les délits impunis découlent du hasard. Pourtant, les délinquants utilisent fréquemment des stratégies pour éviter les autorités policières. Ils sont donc proactifs dans leur impunité. De ces limites découlent quatre propositions : 1) afin de détecter les réels effets des propriétés de la peine sur la criminalité, les territoires utilisés dans les études doivent représenter des juridictions sur lesquelles un seul corps policier opère; 2) afin de détecter les réels effets des propriétés de la peine sur la criminalité, les études doivent être effectuées avec des données provenant d‟une juridiction dans laquelle les activités de répression sont augmentées significativement par rapport à leur seuil antérieur et maintenue sur une période de temps suffisamment longue; 3) les stimuli dissuasifs observés doivent être considérés comme des expériences vicariantes ; 4) l‟impunité doit être définie comme étant une expérience recherchée par les délinquants. Deux études ont été réalisées dans le cadre de cette thèse. D‟abord, une étude a été réalisée à l‟aide de données issues des rapports policiers de collisions et des constats d‟infraction rendus. Les résultats montrent que l‟augmentation de la répression policière ii sur le territoire du Service de Police de la Ville de Montréal a fait diminuer le nombre de collisions. Au même moment, les collisions sont demeurées stables sur le territoire desservis par le Service de police de la Ville de Québec. Dans un deuxième temps, une étude perceptuelle a été réalisée avec un échantillon d‟étudiants universitaires. Les résultats démontrent des effets mitigés des stimuli dissuasifs sur les perceptions que se font les individus de leurs risques d‟être arrêté et sur leurs comportements délinquants. Chez les moins délinquants, les stimuli dissuasifs font augmenter la perception que les délinquants se font de leurs risques. Par contre, les plus motivés à commettre des délits de la route développent des stratégies en réaction aux opérations policières plutôt que d‟en craindre les représailles. Ces tactiques d‟évitement n‟assurent pas une impunité totale, ni une perception moins élevée des risques de recevoir une contravention, mais elles retardent le moment où le délinquant sera confronté à la punition.

Management of Public Road Transport System in Trivandrum City

An efficient passenger road transport system is a boon to any city and an inefficient one its bane. Passenger bus transport operation involves various aspects like passenger convenience, profitability of operation and social, technological and environmental factors. The author’s interest in this area was aroused when he conducted a traffic survey of Trivandrum City in 1979. While some studies on the performance of the Kerala State Road Transport Corporation in specific areas like finance, inventory control etc. have already been made, no study has been made from the operational point of view. The study is also the first one of its kind in dealing with the transportation problems for a second order city like Trivandrum. The objective of this research study is to develop a scientific basis for analysing and understanding the various operational aspects of urban bus transport management like assessing travel demand, depot location, fleet allocation, vehicle scheduling, maintenance etc. The operation of public road transportation in Trivandrum City is analysed on the basis of this theoretical background. The studies made have relevance to any medium sized city in India or even abroad. If not properly managed, deterioration of any public utility system is a natural process and it adversely affects the consumers, the economy and the nation. Making any system more efficient requires careful analysis, judicious decision making and proper implementation. It is hoped that this study will throw some light into the various operational aspects of urban passenger road transport management which can be of some help to make it perform more efficiently

Activity patterns of urban red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) reduce the risk of traffic-induced mortality

Traffic collisions can be a major source of mortality in wild populations, and animals may be expected to exhibit behavioral mechanisms that reduce the risk associated with crossing roads. Animals living in urban areas in particular have to negotiate very dense road networks, often with high levels of traffic flow. We examined traffic-related mortality of red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in the city of Bristol, UK, and the extent to which roads affected fox activity by comparing real and randomly generated patterns of movement. There were significant seasonal differences in the number of traffic-related fox deaths for different age and sex classes; peaks were associated with periods when individuals were likely to be moving through unfamiliar terrain and would have had to cross major roads. Mortality rates per unit road length increased with road magnitude. The number of roads crossed by foxes and the rate at which roads were crossed per hour of activity increased after midnight when traffic flow was lower. Adults and juveniles crossed 17% and 30% fewer roads, respectively, than expected from randomly generated movement. This highly mobile species appeared to reduce the mortality risk of minor category roads by changing its activity patterns, but it remained vulnerable to the effects of larger roads with higher traffic flows during periods associated with extraterritorial movements.

The impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH: results from QUANTIFY

To estimate the impact of emissions by road, aircraft and ship traffic on ozone and OH in the present-day atmosphere six different atmospheric chemistry models have been used. Based on newly developed global emission inventories for road, ship and aircraft emission data sets each model performed sensitivity simulations reducing the emissions of each transport sector by 5%. The model results indicate that on global annual average lower tropospheric ozone responds most sensitive to ship emissions (50.6%±10.9% of the total traffic induced perturbation), followed by road (36.7%±9.3%) and aircraft exhausts (12.7%±2.9%), respectively. In the northern upper troposphere between 200–300 hPa at 30–60° N the maximum impact from road and ship are 93% and 73% of the maximum effect of aircraft, respectively. The latter is 0.185 ppbv for ozone (for the 5% case) or 3.69 ppbv when scaling to 100%. On the global average the impact of road even dominates in the UTLS-region. The sensitivity of ozone formation per NOx molecule emitted is highest for aircraft exhausts. The local maximum effect of the summed traffic emissions on the ozone column predicted by the models is 0.2 DU and occurs over the northern subtropical Atlantic extending to central Europe. Below 800 hPa both ozone and OH respond most sensitively to ship emissions in the marine lower troposphere over the Atlantic. Based on the 5% perturbation the effect on ozone can exceed 0.6% close to the marine surface (global zonal mean) which is 80% of the total traffic induced ozone perturbation. In the southern hemisphere ship emissions contribute relatively strongly to the total ozone perturbation by 60%–80% throughout the year. Methane lifetime changes against OH are affected strongest by ship emissions up to 0.21 (± 0.05)%, followed by road (0.08 (±0.01)%) and air traffic (0.05 (± 0.02)%). Based on the full scale ozone and methane perturbations positive radiative forcings were calculated for road emissions (7.3±6.2 mWm−2) and for aviation (2.9±2.3 mWm−2). Ship induced methane lifetime changes dominate over the ozone forcing and therefore lead to a net negative forcing (−25.5±13.2 mWm−2).

British railways and the challenge from road haulage: 1919-39

Interwar Britain witnessed the rapid rise of road transport as a serious competitor to the railways. This article examines road–rail competition for freight traffic. It demonstrates that, contrary to previous accounts—which have been highly critical of the railway companies—their failure to prevent rapid loss of traffic to the roads was the inevitable consequence of the regulatory framework under which the railways had been returned to private control in 1921. Given the constraints imposed by this framework, price competition with road hauliers would have further depressed railway company profits. Railway policy thus concentrated on pressing for a revision of the legislative framework governing road–rail competition.

Multi-level planning for semi-autonomous vehicles in traffic scenarios based on separation maximization

The planning of semi-autonomous vehicles in traffic scenarios is a relatively new problem that contributes towards the goal of making road travel by vehicles free of human drivers. An algorithm needs to ensure optimal real time planning of multiple vehicles (moving in either direction along a road), in the presence of a complex obstacle network. Unlike other approaches, here we assume that speed lanes are not present and that different lanes do not need to be maintained for inbound and outbound traffic. Our basic hypothesis is to carry forward the planning task to ensure that a sufficient distance is maintained by each vehicle from all other vehicles, obstacles and road boundaries. We present here a 4-layer planning algorithm that consists of road selection (for selecting the individual roads of traversal to reach the goal), pathway selection (a strategy to avoid and/or overtake obstacles, road diversions and other blockages), pathway distribution (to select the position of a vehicle at every instance of time in a pathway), and trajectory generation (for generating a curve, smooth enough, to allow for the maximum possible speed). Cooperation between vehicles is handled separately at the different levels, the aim being to maximize the separation between vehicles. Simulated results exhibit behaviours of smooth, efficient and safe driving of vehicles in multiple scenarios; along with typical vehicle behaviours including following and overtaking.

Ungulate behavioral responses to the heterogeneous road-network of a touristic protected area in Africa

Understanding how wildlife responds to road and traffic is essential for effective conservation. Yet, not many studies have evaluated how roads influence wildlife in protected areas, particularly within the large iconic African National Parks where tourism is mainly based on sightings from motorized vehicles with the consequent development and intense use of roads. To reduce this knowledge gap, we studied the behavioral response and local spatial distribution of impala Aepyceros melampus along the heterogeneous (with variation in road surface type and traffic intensity) road-network of Kruger National Park (KNP, South Africa). We surveyed different types of roads (paved and unpaved) recording the occurrence of flight responses among sighted impala and describing their local spatial distribution (in relation to the roads). We observed relatively few flight responses (19.5% of 118 observations), suggesting impalas could be partly habituated to vehicles in KNP. In addition, impala local distribution is apparently unaffected by unpaved roads, yet animals seem to avoid the close proximity of paved roads. Overall, our results suggest a negative, albeit small, effect of traffic intensity, and of presence of pavement on roads on the behavior of impala at KNP. Future studies would be necessary to understand how roads influence other species, but our results show that even within a protected area that has been well-visited for a long time, wildlife can still be affected by roads and traffic. This result has ecological (e.g., changes in spatial distribution of fauna) and management implications (e.g., challenges of facilitating wildlife sightings while minimizing disturbance) for protected areas where touristic activities are largely based on driving.

Road Sign Recognition based onInvariant Features using SupportVector Machine

Since last two decades researches have been working on developing systems that can assistsdrivers in the best way possible and make driving safe. Computer vision has played a crucialpart in design of these systems. With the introduction of vision techniques variousautonomous and robust real-time traffic automation systems have been designed such asTraffic monitoring, Traffic related parameter estimation and intelligent vehicles. Among theseautomatic detection and recognition of road signs has became an interesting research topic.The system can assist drivers about signs they don’t recognize before passing them.Aim of this research project is to present an Intelligent Road Sign Recognition System basedon state-of-the-art technique, the Support Vector Machine. The project is an extension to thework done at ITS research Platform at Dalarna University [25]. Focus of this research work ison the recognition of road signs under analysis. When classifying an image its location, sizeand orientation in the image plane are its irrelevant features and one way to get rid of thisambiguity is to extract those features which are invariant under the above mentionedtransformation. These invariant features are then used in Support Vector Machine forclassification. Support Vector Machine is a supervised learning machine that solves problemin higher dimension with the help of Kernel functions and is best know for classificationproblems.