Identification of unsafe driving actions and related countermeasures. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Office of Driver and Pedestrian Research, Washington, D.C.

Shallow Landslide Risk Assessment of the Westerly Bluffs of the 7.5-minute Freeland Quadrangle, Whidbey Island, Washington

Landslides often occur on slopes rendered unstable by underlying geology, geomorphology, hydrology, weather-climate, slope modifications, or deforestation. Unfortunately, humans commonly exacerbate such unstable conditions through careless or imprudent development practices. Due to local geology, geography, and climatic conditions, Puget Sound of western Washington State is especially landslide-prone. Despite this known issue, detailed analyses of landslide risks for specific communities are few. This study aims to classify areas of high landslide risk on the westerly bluffs of the 7.5 minute Freeland quadrangle based on a combined approach: mapping using LiDAR imagery and the Landform Remote Identification Model (LRIM) to identify landslides, and implementation of the Shallow Slope Stability Model (SHALSTAB) to establish a landslide exceedance probability. The objective is to produce a risk assessment from two shallow landslide scenarios: (1) minimum bluff setback and runout and (2) maximum bluff setback and runout. A simple risk equation that takes into account the probability of hazard occurrence with physical and economic vulnerability (van Westen, 2004) was applied to both scenarios. Results indicate an possible total loss as much as $32.6b from shallow landslides, given a setback of 12 m and a runout of 235 m.

Butyrylcholinesterase: Association with the metabolic syndrome and identification of 2 gene loci affecting activity

Background: Plasma cholinesterase activity is known to be correlated with plasma triglycerides, HDL- and LDL-cholesterol, and other features of the metabolic syndrome. A role in triglyceride metabolism has been proposed. Genetic variants that decrease activity have been studied extensively, but the factors contributing to overall variation in the population are poorly understood. We studied plasma cholinesterase activity in a sample of 2200 adult twins to assess covariation with cardiovascular risk factors and components of the metabolic syndrome, to determine the degree of genetic effects on enzyme activity, and to search for quantitative trait loci affecting activity. Methods and Results: Cholinesterase activity was lower in women than in men before the age of 50, but increased to activity values similar to those in males after that age. There were highly significant correlations with variables associated with the metabolic syndrome: plasma triglyceride, HDL- and LDL-cholesterol, apolipoprotein B and E, urate, and insulin concentrations; gamma-glutamyltransferase and aspartate and alanine aminotransferase activities; body mass index; and blood pressure. The heritability of plasma cholinesterase activity was 65%. Linkage analysis with data from the dizygotic twin pairs showed suggestive linkage on chromosome 3 at the location of the cholinesterase WHO gene and also on chromosome 5. Conclusions: Our results confirm and extend the connection between cholinesterase, cardiovascular risk factors, and metabolic syndrome. They establish a substantial heritability for plasma cholinesterase activity that might be attributable to variation near the structural gene and at an independent locus. (c) 2006 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

People, technology, processes and risk knowledge sharing

The present global economic crisis creates doubts about the good use of accumulated experience and knowledge in managing risk in financial services. Typically, risk management practice does not use knowledge management (KM) to improve and to develop new answers to the threats. A key reason is that it is not clear how to break down the “organizational silos” view of risk management (RM) that is commonly taken. As a result, there has been relatively little work on finding the relationships between RM and KM. We have been doing research for the last couple of years on the identification of relationships between these two disciplines. At ECKM 2007 we presented a general review of the literature(s) and some hypotheses for starting research on KM and its relationship to the perceived value of enterprise risk management. This article presents findings based on our preliminary analyses, concentrating on those factors affecting the perceived quality of risk knowledge sharing. These come from a questionnaire survey of RM employees in organisations in the financial services sector, which yielded 121 responses. We have included five explanatory variables for the perceived quality of risk knowledge sharing. These comprised two variables relating to people (organizational capacity for work coordination and perceived quality of communication among groups), one relating to process (perceived quality of risk control) and two related to technology (web channel functionality and RM information system functionality). Our findings so far are that four of these five variables have a significant positive association with the perceived quality of risk knowledge sharing: contrary to expectations, web channel functionality did not have a significant association. Indeed, in some of our exploratory regression studies its coefficient (although not significant) was negative. In stepwise regression, the variable organizational capacity for work coordination accounted for by far the largest part of the variation in the dependent variable perceived quality of risk knowledge sharing. The “people” variables thus appear to have the greatest influence on the perceived quality of risk knowledge sharing, even in a sector that relies heavily on technology and on quantitative approaches to decision making. We have also found similar results with the dependent variable perceived value of Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) implementation.

Strategic and operational risk in an international collaboration agency: a knowledge management solution

The International Cooperation Agency (identified in this article as IDEA) working in Colombia is one of the most important in Colombian society with programs that support gender rights, human rights, justice and peace, scholarships, aboriginal population, youth, afro descendants population, economic development in communities, and environmental development. The identified problem is based on the diversified offer of services, collaboration and social intervention which requires diverse groups of people with multiple agendas, ways to support their mandates, disciplines, and professional competences. Knowledge creation and the growth and sustainability of the organization can be in danger because of a silo culture and the resulting reduced leverage of the separate group capabilities. Organizational memory is generally formed by the tacit knowledge of the organization members, given the value of accumulated experience that this kind of social work implies. Its loss is therefore a strategic and operational risk when most problem interventions rely on direct work in the socio-economic field and living real experiences with communities. The knowledge management solution presented in this article starts first, with the identification of the people and groups concerned and the creation of a knowledge map as a means to strengthen the ties between organizational members; second, by introducing a content management system designed to support the documentation process and knowledge sharing process; and third, introducing a methodology for the adaptation of a Balanced Scorecard based on the knowledge management processes. These three main steps lead to a knowledge management “solution” that has been implemented in the organization, comprising three components: a knowledge management system, training support and promotion of cultural change.

Risk assessment applied to comsumer products with reference to CE marking machines for use at work

New Approach’ Directives now govern the health and safety of most products whether destined for workplace or domestic use. These Directives have been enacted into UK law by various specific legislation principally relating to work equipment, machinery and consumer products. This research investigates whether the risk assessment approach used to ensure the safety of machinery may be applied to consumer products. Crucially, consumer products are subject to the Consumer Protection Act (CPA) 1987, where there is no direct reference to “assessing risk”. This contrasts with the law governing the safety of products used in the workplace, where risk assessment underpins the approach. New Approach Directives are supported by European harmonised standards, and in the case of machinery, further supported by the risk assessment standard, EN 1050. The system regulating consumer product safety is discussed, its key elements identified and a graphical model produced. This model incorporates such matters as conformity assessment, the system of regulation, near miss and accident reporting. A key finding of the research is that New Approach Directives have a common feature of specifying essential performance requirements that provide a hazard prompt-list that can form the basis for a risk assessment (the hazard identification stage). Drawing upon 272 prosecution cases, and with thirty examples examined in detail, this research provides evidence that despite the high degree of regulation, unsafe consumer products still find their way onto the market. The research presents a number of risk assessment tools to help Trading Standards Officers (TSOs) prioritise their work at the initial inspection stage when dealing with subsequent enforcement action.

Understanding supply chain disruption risk with the aid of social networks and information flows analysis

Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) has become a popular area of research and study in recent years. This can be highlighted by the number of peer reviewed articles that have appeared in academic literature. This coupled with the realisation by companies that SCRM strategies are required to mitigate the risks that they face, makes for challenging research questions in the field of risk management. The challenge that companies face today is not only to identify the types of risks that they face, but also to assess the indicators of risk that face them. This will allow them to mitigate that risk before any disruption to the supply chain occurs. The use of social network theory can aid in the identification of disruption risk. This thesis proposes the combination of social networks, behavioural risk indicators and information management, to uniquely identify disruption risk. The propositions that were developed from the literature review and exploratory case study in the aerospace OEM, in this thesis are:- By improving information flows, through the use of social networks, we can identify supply chain disruption risk. - The management of information to identify supply chain disruption risk can be explored using push and pull concepts. The propositions were further explored through four focus group sessions, two within the OEM and two within an academic setting. The literature review conducted by the researcher did not find any studies that have evaluated supply chain disruption risk management in terms of social network analysis or information management studies. The evaluation of SCRM using these methods is thought to be a unique way of understanding the issues in SCRM that practitioners face today in the aerospace industry.

Genetic risk factors and age-related macular degeneration (AMD)

Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in individuals older than 65 years of age. It is a multifactorial disorder and identification of risk factors enables individuals to make lifestyle choices that may reduce the risk of disease. Collaboration between geneticists, ophthalmologists, and optometrists suggests that genetic risk factors play a more significant role in AMD than previously thought. The most important genes are associated with immune system modulation and the complement system, e.g., complement factor H (CFH), factor B (CFB), factor C3, and serpin peptidase inhibitor (SERPING1). Genes associated with membrane transport, e.g., ATP-binding cassette protein (ABCR) and voltage-dependent calcium channel gamma 3 (CACNG3), the vascular system, e.g., fibroblast growth factor 2 (FGF2), fibulin-5, lysyl oxidase-like gene (LOXL1) and selectin-P (SELP), and with lipid metabolism, e.g., apolipoprotein E (APOE) and hepatic lipase (LIPC) have also been implicated. In addition, several other genes exhibit some statistical association with AMD, e.g., age-related maculopathy susceptibility protein 2 (ARMS2) and DNA excision repair protein gene (ERCC6) but more research is needed to establish their significance. Modifiable risk factors for AMD should be discussed with patients whose lifestyle and/or family history place them in an increased risk category. Furthermore, calculation of AMD risk using current models should be recommended as a tool for patient education. It is likely that AMD management in future will be increasingly influenced by assessment of genetic risk as such screening methods become more widely available. © 2013 Spanish General Council of Optometry.

New biomarkers and risk stratification in atrial fibrillation:simplicity and practicality matter

Advances in our understanding of pathological mechanisms can inform the identification of various biomarkers for risk stratification, monitoring drug efficacy and toxicity; and enabling careful monitoring of polypharmacy. Biomarkers in the broadest sense refer to 'biological markers' and this can be blood-based (eg. fibrin D-dimer, von Willebrand factor, etc) urine-based (eg. thromboxane), or even related to cardiac or cerebral imaging(1). Most biomarkers offer improvements over clinical risk scores in predicting high risk patients - at least statistically - but usually at the loss of simplicity and practicality for easy application in everyday clinical practice. Given the various biomarkers can be informed by different aspects of pathophysiology (e.g. inflammation, clotting, collagen turnover) they can nevertheless contribute to a better understanding of underlying disease processes(2). Indeed, many age-related diseases share common modifiable underpinning mechanisms e.g. inflammation, oxidative stress and visceral adiposity.

Overview of risk factors for age-related macular degeneration

Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in individuals older than 65 years of age. It is a multifactorial disorder and identification of risk factors enables individuals to make life style choices that may reduce the risk of disease. This review discusses the role of genetics, sunlight, diet, cardiovascular factors, smoking, and alcohol as possible risk factors for AMD. Genetics plays a more significant role in AMD than previously thought, especially in younger patients, histocompatibility locus antigen (HLA) and complement system genes being the most significant. Whether the risk of AMD is increased by exposure to sunlight, cardiovascular risk factors, and diet is more controversial. Smoking is the risk factor most consistently associated with AMD. Current smokers are exposed to a two to three times higher risk of AMD than non-smokers and the risk increases with intensity of smoking. Moderate alcohol consumption is unlikely to increase the risk of AMD. Optometrists as front-line informers and educators of ocular health play a significant role in increasing public awareness of the risks of AMD. Cessation of smoking, the use of eye protection in high light conditions, dietary changes, and regular use of dietary supplements should all be considered to reduce the lifetime risk of AMD.

Overview of risk factors for age-related macular degeneration (AMD)

Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in individuals older than 65 years of age. It is a multifactorial disorder and identification of risk factors enables individuals to make life style choices that may reduce the risk of disease. This review discusses the role of genetics, sunlight, diet, cardiovascular factors, smoking, and alcohol as possible risk factors for AMD. Genetics plays a more significant role in AMD than previously thought, especially in younger patients, histocompatibility locus antigen (HLA) and complement system genes being the most significant. Whether the risk of AMD is increased by exposure to sunlight, cardiovascular risk factors, and diet is more controversial. Smoking is the risk factor most consistently associated with AMD. Current smokers are exposed to a two to three times higher risk of AMD than non-smokers and the risk increases with intensity of smoking. Moderate alcohol consumption is unlikely to increase the risk of AMD. Optometrists as front-line informers and educators of ocular health play a significant role in increasing public awareness of the risks of AMD. Cessation of smoking, the use of eye protection in high light conditions, dietary changes, and regular use of dietary supplements should all be considered to reduce the lifetime risk of AMD.

Overview of risk factors for age-related macular degeneration (AMD)

Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in individuals older than 65 years of age. It is a multifactorial disorder and identification of risk factors enables individuals to make life style choices that may reduce the risk of disease. This review discusses the role of genetics, sunlight, diet, cardiovascular factors, smoking, and alcohol as possible risk factors for AMD. Genetics plays a more significant role in AMD than previously thought, especially in younger patients, histocompatibility locus antigen (HLA) and complement system genes being the most significant. Whether the risk of AMD is increased by exposure to sunlight, cardiovascular risk factors, and diet is more controversial. Smoking is the risk factor most consistently associated with AMD. Current smokers are exposed to a two to three times higher risk of AMD than non-smokers and the risk increases with intensity of smoking. Moderate alcohol consumption is unlikely to increase the risk of AMD. Optometrists as front-line informers and educators of ocular health play a significant role in increasing public awareness of the risks of AMD. Cessation of smoking, the use of eye protection in high light conditions, dietary changes, and regular use of dietary supplements should all be considered to reduce the lifetime risk of AMD.

Does Lost Time Cost You Money and Create High Risk?

The aim of the case study is to express the delayed repair time impact on the revenues and profit in numbers with the example of the outage of power plant units. Main steps of risk assessment: • creating project plan suitable for risk assessment • identification of the risk factors for each project activities • scenario-analysis based evaluation of risk factors • selection of the critical risk factors based on the results of quantitative risk analysis • formulating risk response actions for the critical risks • running Monte-Carlo simulation [1] using the results of scenario-analysis • building up a macro which creates the connection among the results of the risk assessment, the production plan and the business plan.

Egységes kockázatkezelési módszertan kialakítása a villamosenergia-ipari átviteli rendszerirányító társaságnál (Development of an integrated risk management methodology for an electricity transmission system operator (TSO) company)

A felelős vállalatirányítás egyik stratégiai jelentőségű tényezője a vállalati szintű kockázatkezelés, mely napjaink egyik legnagyobb kihívást jelentő területe a vállalatvezetés számára. A hatékony vállalati kockázatkezelés nem valósulhat meg kizárólag az általános, nemzetközi és hazai szakirodalomban megfogalmazott kockázatkezelési alapelvek követése mentén, a kockázatkezelési rendszer kialakítása során figyelembe kell venni mind az iparági, mind az adott vállalatra jellemző sajátosságokat. Mindez különösen fontos egy olyan speciális tevékenységet folytató vállalatnál, mint a villamosenergia-ipari átviteli rendszerirányító társaság (transmission system operator, TSO). A cikkben a magyar villamosenergia-ipari átviteli rendszerirányító társasággal együttműködésben készített kutatás keretében előálló olyan komplex elméleti és gyakorlati keretrendszert mutatnak be a szerzők, mely alapján az átviteli rendszerirányító társaság számára kialakítottak egy új, területenként egységes kockázatkezelési módszertant (fókuszban a kockázatok azonosításának és számszerűsítésének módszertani lépéseivel), mely alkalmas a vállalati szintű kockázati kitettség meghatározására. _______ This study handles one of today’s most challenging areas of enterprise management: the development and introduction of an integrated and efficient risk management system. For companies operating in specific network industries with a dominant market share and a key role in the national economy, such as electricity TSO’s, risk management is of stressed importance. The study introduces an innovative, mathematically and statistically grounded as well as economically reasoned management approach for the identification, individual effect calculation and summation of risk factors. Every building block is customized for the organizational structure and operating environment of the TSO. While the identification phase guarantees all-inclusivity, the calculation phase incorporates expert techniques and Monte Carlo simulation and the summation phase presents an expected combined distribution and value effect of risks on the company’s profit lines based on the previously undiscovered correlations between individual risk factors.

Substance use and sexual risk behaviors among adolescent detainees

There is a commonly presumed link among sexual risk behavior, substance use, and other psychosocial factors among adolescents. However, these relationships have been relatively understudied in detained, low-income, minority, substance abusing adolescents. This study addresses this gap in the literature with a secondary data analysis based on a sample of adolescent offenders in two detention and treatment centers in Miami-Dade County. Univariate, bivariate statistical analysis and multivariate logistic regressions were conducted on baseline data from structured interviews with 455 adolescents participating in an NIH funded prevention intervention. Data were analyzed to assess relationships among self-reported substance use, STD history, HIV/AIDS knowledge, condom use, condom use attitudes, and skills, peer and parental approval to use condoms, and race/ethnicity. The adolescent sample was 74.1% male, and 25.9% female and 35.4% African American, 25.1% non-African American Latino, 11.2% White, and 28.4% of other race/ethnicity categories. The mean age was 15.6 years. Results suggested that alcohol use (p < 0.001) and use of marijuana, cocaine and other drugs (p < 0.001) are significant variables when explaining the variability in sexual risk behaviors. Results also suggested that unprotected vaginal, anal, and oral sex increased with higher alcohol and drug use (p < 0.001) and that positive attitudes about personally using condoms (p < 0.001) were also significantly related to condom use. Logistic regressions showed that race/ethnicity was a significant control variable when explaining the variability of condom use. Being White and Latino were significantly associated with less condom use during oral and anal sex when compared to other racial/ethnic groups. These results indicated that risky sexual behavior and HIV infection risk are significantly associated with substance use, particularly alcohol use. Therefore, proper screening and identification of alcohol use, and condom use attitudes could maximize the efficacy of referrals to programs targeting both issues and increase the potential for appropriate primary and secondary prevention and treatment among adolescent detainees.