793 resultados para Regional population forecasting, service provision, box-Jenkins model


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Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

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As we celebrate 50 years of the Schonell Special Education Research Centre it is timely to consider changes that have occurred in the provision of residential services for people with an intellectual disability. Before the 1970s adults and children were cared for in large institutions using a medical model of care. In the mid-1970s a new developmental model based on education and training was implemented in response to the principle of normalisation and issues of social justice. The most dramatic changes have occurred in the last ten years with the decision to close large institutions and relocate residents into ordinary homes in the community. This paper describes changes in lifestyle for adults with an intellectual disability as a result of the move from institutional to community residential service provision. The Challinor Centre in Ipswich, Queensland, Australia provides examples of lifestyle changes that have occurred under different models of service provision during this time. Community living is described with research evidence validating the advantages of this type of service provision for residents with an intellectual disability. Outcomes have been documented through the use of group results and a case study of one individual following deinstitutionalisation describes the benefits of this new model of residential accommodation

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This paper develops an Internet geographical information system (GIS) and spatial model application that provides socio-economic information and exploratory spatial data analysis for local government authorities (LGAs) in Queensland, Australia. The application aims to improve the means by which large quantities of data may be analysed, manipulated and displayed in order to highlight trends and patterns as well as provide performance benchmarking that is readily understandable and easily accessible for decision-makers. Measures of attribute similarity and spatial proximity are combined in a clustering model with a spatial autocorrelation index for exploratory spatial data analysis to support the identification of spatial patterns of change. Analysis of socio-economic changes in Queensland is presented. The results demonstrate the usefulness and potential appeal of the Internet GIS applications as a tool to inform the process of regional analysis, planning and policy.

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Objectives : To provide a preliminary clinical profile of the resolution and outcomes of oral-motor impairment and swallowing function in a group of paediatric dysphagia patients post-traumatic brain injury (TBI). To document the level of cognitive impairment parallel to the return to oral intake, and to investigate the correlation between the resolution of impaired swallow function versus the resolution of oral-motor impairment and cognitive impairment. Participants : Thirteen children admitted to an acute care setting for TBI. Main outcome measures : A series of oral-motor (Verbal Motor Production Assessment for Children, Frenchay Dysarthria Assessment, Schedule for Oral Motor Assessment) and swallowing (Paramatta Hospital's Assessment for Dysphagia) assessments, an outcome measure for swallowing (Royal Brisbane Hospital's Outcome Measure for Swallowing), and a cognitive rating scale (Rancho Level of Cognitive Functioning Scale). Results : Across the patient group, oral-motor deficits resolved to normal status between 3 and 11 weeks post-referral (and at an average of 12 weeks post-injury) and swallowing function and resolution to normal diet status were achieved by 3-11 weeks post-referral (and at an average of 12 weeks post-injury). The resolution of dysphagia and the resolution of oral-motor impairment and cognitive impairment were all highly correlated. Conclusion : The provision of a preliminary profile of oral-motor functioning and dysphagia resolution, and data on the linear relationship between swallowing impairment and cognition, will provide baseline information on the course of rehabilitation of dysphagia in the paediatric population post-TBI. Such data will contribute to more informed service provision and rehabilitation planning for paediatric patients post-TBI.

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Objective: To explore the relationship between family average income (FAI; an index of socio-economic status) and body mass index (BMI; a widely used, inexpensive indicator of weight status) above the healthy weight range in a region of Mainland China. Design: Population-based cross-sectional study, conducted between October 1999 and March 2000 on a sample of regular local residents aged 35 years or older who were selected by random cluster sampling. Setting: Forty-five administrative villages selected from three urban districts and two rural counties of Nanjing municipality, Mainland China, with a regional population of 5.6 million. Subjects: In total, 29 340 subjects participated; 67.7% from urban and 32.3% from rural areas; 49.8% male and 50.2% female. The response rate among eligible participants was 90.1%. Results: The proportion of participants classified as overweight was 30.5%, while 7.8% were identified as obese. After adjusting for possible confounding variables (age, gender, area of residence, educational level, occupational and leisure-time physical activity, daily vegetable consumption and frequency of red meat intake), urban participants were more likely to be overweight or obese relative to their rural counterparts, more women than men were obese, and participants in the lowest FAI tertile were the least likely to be above the healthy weight range. Conclusions: The proportion of adults with BMI above the healthy weight range was positively related to having a higher socio-economic status (indexed by FAI) in a regional Chinese population.

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Background Relatively little international work has examined whether mental health resource allocation matches need. This study aimed to determine whether adult mental health resources in Australia are being distributed equitably. Method Individual measures of need were extrapolated to Australian Areas, and Area-based proxies of need were considered. Particular attention was paid to the prevalence of mental health problems, since this is arguably the most objective measure of need. The extent to which these measures predicted public sector, private sector and total adult mental health expenditure at an Area level was examined. Results In the public sector, 41.6% of expenditure variation was explained by the prevalence of affective disorders, personality disorders, cognitive impairment and psychosis, as well as the Area's level of economic resources and State/Territory effects. In the private sector, 72.4% of expenditure variation was explained by service use and State/Territory effects (with an alternative model incorporating service use and State/Territory supply of private psychiatrists explaining 69.4% of expenditure variation). A relatively high proportion (58.7%) of total expenditure variation could be explained by service utilisation and State/Territory effects. Conclusions For services to be delivered equitably, the majority of variation in expenditure would have to be accounted for by appropriate measures of need. The best model for public sector expenditure included an appropriate measure of need but had relatively poor explanatory power. The models for private sector and total expenditure had greater explanatory power, but relied on less appropriate measures of need. It is concluded that mental health services in Australia are not yet being delivered equitably.

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A framework for developing marketing category management decision support systems (DSS) based upon the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model is extended. Since the BVAR model is vulnerable to permanent and temporary shifts in purchasing patterns over time, a form that can correct for the shifts and still provide the other advantages of the BVAR is a Bayesian Vector Error-Correction Model (BVECM). We present the mechanics of extending the DSS to move from a BVAR model to the BVECM model for the category management problem. Several additional iterative steps are required in the DSS to allow the decision maker to arrive at the best forecast possible. The revised marketing DSS framework and model fitting procedures are described. Validation is conducted on a sample problem.

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Objectives The aims of the study were to describe the prevalence and associations of mental health disorder (MHD) among a cohort of HIV-infected patients attending the Victorian HIV/AIDS Service between 1984 and 2000, and to examine whether antiretroviral therapy use or mortality was influenced by MHD (defined as a record of service provision by psychiatric services on the Victorian Psychiatric Case Register). It was hypothesized that HIV-positive individuals with MHD would have poorer treatment outcomes, reduced responses to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) and increased mortality compared with those without MHD. Methods This is a retrospective cohort of 2981 individuals (73% of the Victorian population diagnosed with HIV infection) captured on an HIV database which was electronically matched with the public Victorian Psychiatric Case Register (VPCR) (accounting for 95% of public system psychiatry service provision). The prevalence, dates and recorded specifics of mental health disorders at the time of the electronic match on 1 June 2000 are described. The association with recorded MHD, gender, age, AIDS illness, HIV exposure category, duration and type of antiviral therapy, treatment era (prior to 1986, post-1987 and pre-HAART, and post-HAART) on hospitalization and mortality at 1 September 2001 was assessed. Results Five hundred and twenty-five individuals (17.6% of the Victorian HIV-positive population) were recorded with MHD, most frequently coded as attributable to substance dependence/abuse or affective disorder. MHD was diagnosed prior to HIV in 33% and, of those diagnosed after HIV, 93.8% were recorded more than 1 year after the HIV diagnosis. Schizophrenia was recorded in 6% of the population with MHD. Hospitalizations for both psychiatric and nonpsychiatric illness were more frequent in those with MHD (relative risk 5.4; 95% confidence interval 3.7, 8.2). The total number of antiretrovirals used (median 6.4 agents vs 5.5 agents) was greater in those with MHD. When adjusted for antiretroviral treatment era, HIV exposure category, CD4 cell count and antiretroviral therapy, survival was not affected by MHD. Conclusions MHD is frequent in this population with HIV infection and is associated with increased healthcare utilization but not with reduced survival.

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Benchmarking of the performance of states, provinces, or districts in a decentralised health system is important for fostering of accountability, monitoring of progress, identification of determinants of success and failure, and creation of a culture of evidence. The Mexican Ministry of Health has, since 2001, used a benchmarking approach based on the World Health Organization (WHO) concept of effective coverage of an intervention, which is defined as the proportion of potential health gain that could be delivered by the health system to that which is actually delivered. Using data collection systems, including state representative examination surveys, vital registration, and hospital discharge registries, we have monitored the delivery of 14 interventions for 2005-06. Overall effective coverage ranges from 54.0% in Chiapas, a poor state, to 65.1% in the Federal District. Effective coverage for maternal and child health interventions is substantially higher than that for interventions that target other health problems. Effective coverage for the lowest wealth quintile is 52% compared with 61% for the highest quintile. Effective coverage is closely related to public-health spending per head across states; this relation is stronger for interventions that are not related to maternal and child health than those for maternal and child health. Considerable variation also exists in effective coverage at similar amounts of spending. We discuss the implications of these issues for the further development of the Mexican health-information system. Benchmarking of performance by measuring effective coverage encourages decision-makers to focus on quality service provision, not only service availability. The effective coverage calculation is an important device for health-system stewardship. In adopting this approach, other countries should select interventions to be measured on the basis of the criteria of affordability, effect on population health, effect on health inequalities, and capacity to measure the effects of the intervention. The national institutions undertaking this benchmarking must have the mandate, skills, resources, and independence to succeed.

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The Post-Fordist welfare state thesis locates contemporary social welfare change within a wider analysis of the transformation of capitalist accumulation regimes. Whilst this analysis is useful in directing attention to macro socio-economic change, it has for the most part contained three shortcomings. First, the Post-Fordist thesis has overemphasized the role of historical 'breaks' in the development of social welfare as it purportedly passes from Fordism to Post-Fordism. Second, the thesis has assumed a degree of convergence between welfare states as a result of global economic forces. In doing so, it has underemphasized the mediating impact of existing institutional arrangements within nations. Third, the thesis has assumed, rather than demonstrated, the specific changes which are alleged to be taking place in various fields of social welfare. As a consequence, aspects of continuity in social welfare have been neglected. These three lacunae are addressed through a comparative analysis of developments in the personal social services in Australia and Britain. Services to older people are employed as the specific context of comparison in relation to three dimensions of measuring transformation along a Post-Fordist trajectory: a shift from a unitary economy to a mixed economy of service provision; changes in the model of service delivery and consumption; and strengthening the governance function of the central state. This comparative analysis suggests the need for refinement of the Post-Fordist welfare state thesis concerning the restructuring of social welfare and its impact on the personal social services.

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This paper extends the original service profit chain by examining the role of relational capabilities with employees, customers and strategic partners on process and performance outcomes in a business-to-business context. More specifically, we demonstrate how satisfied and loyal employees are better in developing relationships with customers and strategic partners. These relationships enable firms to be more responsive towards customers and become more innovative, which increase customer satisfaction and loyalty and, ultimately, financial performance. Our results provide support for the development of relational capabilities in a business-to-business environment by extending the service profit chain (SPC) model. However, we find that while the development of strong customer relationships contributes to an improved service responsiveness of the firm, strategic partners do not.

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This study is about the role and operation of ‘third sector’ organisations (TSOs) within the Taiwanese social welfare context. TSOs have increased dramatically and become actively involved in social service provision. This phenomenon has not only had significant impact on the development and operation of TSOs in Taiwan but it is also of increasing interest to public policy academics. The latter are especially interested in the implications for the government-third sector relationship. This research examines the reasons why TSOs have been established, why they actively participate in social service provision, and their role and operation within the social welfare context of Taiwan. The study has both quantitative and qualitative data. It sampled ‘social service’ and ‘charitable’ organisations (SSCOs), which are the main type of TSOs in Taiwan, to examine their role, operation and interaction with government. Questionnaires were mailed to collect quantitative data first. After the quantitative data were collected and analysed, semi-structured interviews were undertaken to collect qualitative data. The study found that TSOs in Taiwan exist in a highly institutionalised environment, which is affected by traditional Confucian ideas and contemporary Western ideas such as social justice and civil rights. The rapid growth of TSOs has a strong connection with the desire to fill social service gaps left by government and family. TSOs mainly play the role of service provider rather than that of advocate. They cooperate with government in social service provision and have developed different types of symbiotic relationships with government. A ‘resonance effect’ between government and TSOs was also found as they implement social policy.

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This research investigates the contribution that Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can make to the land suitability process used to determine the effects of a climate change scenario. The research is intended to redress the severe under representation of Developing countries within the literature examining the impacts of climatic change upon crop productivity. The methodology adopts some of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates for regional climate variations, based upon General Circulation Model predictions (GCMs) and applies them to a baseline climate for Bangladesh. Utilising the United Nations Food & Agricultural Organisation's Agro-ecological Zones land suitability methodology and crop yield model, the effects of the scenario upon agricultural productivity on 14 crops are determined. A Geographic Information System (IDRISI) is adopted in order to facilitate the methodology, in conjunction with a specially designed spreadsheet, used to determine the yield and suitability rating for each crop. A simple optimisation routine using the GIS is incorporated to provide an indication of the 'maximum theoretical' yield available to the country, should the most calorifically significant crops be cultivated on each land unit both before and after the climate change scenario. This routine will provide an estimate of the theoretical population supporting capacity of the country, both now and in the future, to assist with planning strategies and research. The research evaluates the utility of this alternative GIS based methodology for the land evaluation process and determines the relative changes in crop yields that may result from changes in temperature, photosynthesis and flooding hazard frequency. In summary, the combination of a GIS and a spreadsheet was successful, the yield prediction model indicates that the application of the climate change scenario will have a deleterious effect upon the yields of the study crops. Any yield reductions will have severe implications for agricultural practices. The optimisation routine suggests that the 'theoretical maximum' population supporting capacity is well in excess of current and future population figures. If this agricultural potential could be realised however, it may provide some amelioration from the effects of climate change.

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A view has emerged within manufacturing and service organizations that the operations management function can hold the key to achieving competitive edge. This has recently been emphasized by the demands for greater variety and higher quality which must be set against a background of increasing cost of resources. As nations' trade barriers are progressively lowered and removed, so producers of goods and service products are becoming more exposed to competition that may come from virtually anywhere around the world. To simply survive in this climate many organizations have found it necessary to improve their manufacturing or service delivery systems. To become real ''winners'' some have adopted a strategic approach to operations and completely reviewed and restructured their approach to production system design and operations planning and control. The articles in this issue of the International journal of Operations & Production Management have been selected to illustrate current thinking and practice in relation to this situation. They are all based on papers presented to the Sixth International Conference of the Operations Management Association-UK which was held at Aston University in June 1991. The theme of the conference was "Achieving Competitive Edge" and authors from 15 countries around the world contributed to more than 80 presented papers. Within this special issue five topic areas are addressed with two articles relating to each. The topics are: strategic management of operations; managing change; production system design; production control; and service operations. Under strategic management of operations De Toni, Filippini and Forza propose a conceptual model which considers the performance of an operating system as a source of competitive advantage through the ''operation value chain'' of design, purchasing, production and distribution. Their model is set within the context of the tendency towards globalization. New's article is somewhat in contrast to the more fashionable literature on operations strategy. It challenges the validity of the current idea of ''world-class manufacturing'' and, instead, urges a reconsideration of the view that strategic ''trade-offs'' are necessary to achieve a competitive edge. The importance of managing change has for some time been recognized within the field of organization studies but its relevance in operations management is now being realized. Berger considers the use of "organization design", ''sociotechnical systems'' and change strategies and contrasts these with the more recent idea of the ''dialogue perspective''. A tentative model is suggested to improve the analysis of different strategies in a situation specific context. Neely and Wilson look at an essential prerequisite if change is to be effected in an efficient way, namely product goal congruence. Using a case study as its basis, their article suggests a method of measuring goal congruence as a means of identifying the extent to which key performance criteria relating to quality, time, cost and flexibility are understood within an organization. The two articles on production systems design represent important contributions to the debate on flexible production organization and autonomous group working. Rosander uses the results from cases to test the applicability of ''flow groups'' as the optimal way of organizing batch production. Schuring also examines cases to determine the reasons behind the adoption of ''autonomous work groups'' in The Netherlands and Sweden. Both these contributions help to provide a greater understanding of the production philosophies which have emerged as alternatives to more conventional systems -------for intermittent and continuous production. The production control articles are both concerned with the concepts of ''push'' and ''pull'' which are the two broad approaches to material planning and control. Hirakawa, Hoshino and Katayama have developed a hybrid model, suitable for multistage manufacturing processes, which combines the benefits of both systems. They discuss the theoretical arguments in support of the system and illustrate its performance with numerical studies. Slack and Correa's concern is with the flexibility characteristics of push and pull material planning and control systems. They use the case of two plants using the different systems to compare their performance within a number of predefined flexibility types. The two final contributions on service operations are complementary. The article by Voss really relates to manufacturing but examines the application of service industry concepts within the UK manufacturing sector. His studies in a number of companies support the idea of the ''service factory'' and offer a new perspective for manufacturing. Harvey's contribution by contrast, is concerned with the application of operations management principles in the delivery of professional services. Using the case of social-service provision in Canada, it demonstrates how concepts such as ''just-in-time'' can be used to improve service performance. The ten articles in this special issue of the journal address a wide range of issues and situations. Their common aspect is that, together, they demonstrate the extent to which competitiveness can be improved via the application of operations management concepts and techniques.