Nature of the Epidemic Threshold for the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible Dynamics in Networks

We develop an analytical approach to the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model that allows us to unravel the true origin of the absence of an epidemic threshold in heterogeneous networks. We find that a delicate balance between the number of high degree nodes in the network and the topological distance between them dictates the existence or absence of such a threshold. In particular, small-world random networks with a degree distribution decaying slower than an exponential have a vanishing epidemic threshold in the thermodynamic limit.

Empirical study of correlated survival times for recurrent events with proportional hazards margins and the effect of correlation and censoring.

Background: In longitudinal studies where subjects experience recurrent incidents over a period of time, such as respiratory infections, fever or diarrhea, statistical methods are required to take into account the within-subject correlation. Methods: For repeated events data with censored failure, the independent increment (AG), marginal (WLW) and conditional (PWP) models are three multiple failure models that generalize Cox"s proportional hazard model. In this paper, we revise the efficiency, accuracy and robustness of all three models under simulated scenarios with varying degrees of within-subject correlation, censoring levels, maximum number of possible recurrences and sample size. We also study the methods performance on a real dataset from a cohort study with bronchial obstruction. Results: We find substantial differences between methods and there is not an optimal method. AG and PWP seem to be preferable to WLW for low correlation levels but the situation reverts for high correlations. Conclusions: All methods are stable in front of censoring, worsen with increasing recurrence levels and share a bias problem which, among other consequences, makes asymptotic normal confidence intervals not fully reliable, although they are well developed theoretically.

Patterns of care in recurrent glioblastoma in Switzerland: a multicentre national approach based on diagnostic nodes.

Despite moderate improvements in outcome of glioblastoma after first-line treatment with chemoradiation recent clinical trials failed to improve the prognosis of recurrent glioblastoma. In the absence of a standard of care we aimed to investigate institutional treatment strategies to identify similarities and differences in the pattern of care for recurrent glioblastoma. We investigated re-treatment criteria and therapeutic pathways for recurrent glioblastoma of eight neuro-oncology centres in Switzerland having an established multidisciplinary tumour-board conference. Decision algorithms, differences and consensus were analysed using the objective consensus methodology. A total of 16 different treatment recommendations were identified based on combinations of eight different decision criteria. The set of criteria implemented as well as the set of treatments offered was different in each centre. For specific situations, up to 6 different treatment recommendations were provided by the eight centres. The only wide-range consensus identified was to offer best supportive care to unfit patients. A majority recommendation was identified for non-operable large early recurrence with unmethylated MGMT promoter status in the fit patients: here bevacizumab was offered. In fit patients with late recurrent non-operable MGMT promoter methylated glioblastoma temozolomide was recommended by most. No other majority recommendations were present. In the absence of strong evidence we identified few consensus recommendations in the treatment of recurrent glioblastoma. This contrasts the limited availability of single drugs and treatment modalities. Clinical situations of greatest heterogeneity may be suitable to be addressed in clinical trials and second opinion referrals are likely to yield diverging recommendations.

Phenotypic Association Analyses With Copy Number Variation in Recurrent Depressive Disorder.

BACKGROUND: Defining the molecular genomic basis of the likelihood of developing depressive disorder is a considerable challenge. We previously associated rare, exonic deletion copy number variants (CNV) with recurrent depressive disorder (RDD). Sex chromosome abnormalities also have been observed to co-occur with RDD. METHODS: In this reanalysis of our RDD dataset (N = 3106 cases; 459 screened control samples and 2699 population control samples), we further investigated the role of larger CNVs and chromosomal abnormalities in RDD and performed association analyses with clinical data derived from this dataset. RESULTS: We found an enrichment of Turner's syndrome among cases of depression compared with the frequency observed in a large population sample (N = 34,910) of live-born infants collected in Denmark (two-sided p = .023, odds ratio = 7.76 [95% confidence interval = 1.79-33.6]), a case of diploid/triploid mosaicism, and several cases of uniparental isodisomy. In contrast to our previous analysis, large deletion CNVs were no more frequent in cases than control samples, although deletion CNVs in cases contained more genes than control samples (two-sided p = .0002). CONCLUSIONS: After statistical correction for multiple comparisons, our data do not support a substantial role for CNVs in RDD, although (as has been observed in similar samples) occasional cases may harbor large variants with etiological significance. Genetic pleiotropy and sample heterogeneity suggest that very large sample sizes are required to study conclusively the role of genetic variation in mood disorders.

Right ventricular rupture due to recurrent mediastinal infection with a closed chest.

Right ventricular (RV) rupture in cases of mediastinitis following cardiac surgery is a rare and dangerous complication. Bleeding from the right ventricle occurs mainly after sternal reopening, due to either iatrogenic manipulation (wire removal, lesions due to wiring maneuvers) or mechanical shearing forces, producing direct injury. We present a case of RV wall perforation due to infection in a recurrent postoperative mediastinitis with a closed chest. The current literature on treatment of postoperative mediastinitis is also reviewed.

Statistical Analysis of an SEIR Epidemic Model

This thesis was focussed on statistical analysis methods and proposes the use of Bayesian inference to extract information contained in experimental data by estimating Ebola model parameters. The model is a system of differential equations expressing the behavior and dynamics of Ebola. Two sets of data (onset and death data) were both used to estimate parameters, which has not been done by previous researchers in (Chowell, 2004). To be able to use both data, a new version of the model has been built. Model parameters have been estimated and then used to calculate the basic reproduction number and to study the disease-free equilibrium. Estimates of the parameters were useful to determine how well the model fits the data and how good estimates were, in terms of the information they provided about the possible relationship between variables. The solution showed that Ebola model fits the observed onset data at 98.95% and the observed death data at 93.6%. Since Bayesian inference can not be performed analytically, the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach has been used to generate samples from the posterior distribution over parameters. Samples have been used to check the accuracy of the model and other characteristics of the target posteriors.

Evidence for coseismic events of recurrent prehistoric deformation along the Alhama de Murcia fault, southeastern Spain

The Alhama de Murcia fault is a 85 km long oblique-slip fault, and is related to historical and instrumental seismic activity. A paleoseismic analysis of the Lorca-Totana sector of the fault containing MSK I=VIII historical earthquakes was made in order to identify and quantify its seismic potential. We present 1) the results of the neotectonic, structural and geomorphological analyses and, 2) the results of trenching. In the study area, the Alhama de Murcia fault forms a depressed corridor between two strands, the northwestern fault with morphological and structural features of a reverse component of slip, bounding the La Tercia range to the South, and the southeastern fault strand with evidence of sinistral oblique strike-slip movement. The offset along this latter fault trapped the sediments in transit from the La Tercia range towards the Guadalentín depression. The most recent of these sediments are arranged in three generations of alluvial fans and terraces. The first two trenches were dug in the most recent sediments across the southeastern fault strand. The results indicate a coseismic reverse fault deformation that involved the sedimentary sequence up to the intermediate alluvial fan and the Holocene terrace deposits. The sedimentary evolution observed in the trenches suggests an event of temporary damming of the Colmenar creek drainage to the South due to uplifting of the hanging wall during coseismic activation of the fault. Trench, structural and sedimentological features provide evidence of at least three coseismic events, which occurred after 125,000 yr. The minimum vertical slip rate along the fault is 0.06 mm/yr and the average recurrence period should not exceed 40,000 yr in accordance with the results obtained by fan topographic profiling. Further absolute dating is ongoing to constrain these estimates.

Chromosomal abnormalities in couples with recurrent first trimester abortions

PURPOSE: To investigate the prevalence of chromosomal abnormalities in couples with two or more recurrent first trimester miscarriages of unknown cause. METHODS: The study was conducted on 151 women and 94 partners who had an obstetrical history of two or more consecutive first trimester abortions (1-12 weeks of gestation). The controls were 100 healthy women without a history of pregnancy loss. Chromosomal analysis was performed on peripheral blood lymphocytes cultured for 72 hours, using Trypsin-Giemsa (GTG) banding. In all cases, at least 30 metaphases were analyzed and 2 karyotypes were prepared, using light microscopy. The statistical analysis was performed using the Student t-test for normally distributed data and the Mann-Whitney test for non-parametric data. The Kruskal-Wallis test or Analysis of Variance was used to compare the mean values between three or more groups. The software used was Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS), version 17.0. RESULTS: The frequency of chromosomal abnormalities in women with recurrent miscarriages was 7.3%, including 4.7% with X-chromosome mosaicism, 2% with reciprocal translocations and 0.6% with Robertsonian translocations. A total of 2.1% of the partners of women with recurrent miscarriages had chromosomal abnormalities, including 1% with X-chromosome mosaicism and 1% with inversions. Among the controls, 1% had mosaicism. CONCLUSION: An association between chromosomal abnormalities and recurrent miscarriage in the first trimester of pregnancy (OR=7.7; 95%CI 1.2--170.5) was observed in the present study. Etiologic identification of genetic factors represents important clinical information for genetic counseling and orientation of the couple about the risk for future pregnancies and decreases the number of investigations needed to elucidate the possible causes of miscarriages.

Metabolism and gene polymorphisms of the folate pathway in Brazilian women with history of recurrent abortion

PURPOSE: To investigate the association between polymorphisms in genes that encode enzymes involved in folate- and vitamin B12-dependent homocysteine metabolism and recurrent spontaneous abortion (RSA).METHODS: We investigated the C677T and A1298C polymorphisms of the methylenetetrahydrofalate reductase gene (MTHFR), the A2756G polymorphism of the methionine synthase gene (MS) and the 844ins68 insertion of the cystathionine beta synthetase gene (CBS). The PCR technique followed by RFLP was used to assess the polymorphisms; the serum levels of homocysteine, vitamin B12 and folate were investigated by chemiluminescence. The EPI Info Software version 6.04 was used for statistical analysis. Parametric variables were compared by Student's t-test and nonparametric variables by the Wilcoxon rank sum test.RESULTS: The frequencies of gene polymorphisms in 89 women with a history of idiopathic recurrent miscarriage and 150 controls were 19.1 and 19.6% for the C677T, insertion, 20.8 and 26% for the A1298C insertion, 14.2 and 21.9% for the A2756G insertion, and 16.4 and 18% for the 844ins68 insertion, respectively. There were no significant differences between case and control groups in any of the gene polymorphisms investigated. However, the frequency of the 844ins68 insertion in the CBS gene was higher among women with a history of loss during the third trimester of pregnancy (p=0.003). Serum homocysteine, vitamin B12 and folate levels id not differ between the polymorphisms studied in the case and control groups. However, linear regression analysis showed a dependence of serum folate levels on the maintenance of tHcy levels.CONCLUSION: The investigated gene polymorphisms and serum homocysteine, vitamin B12 and folate levels were not associated with idiopathic recurrent miscarriage in the present study. Further investigations are needed in order to confirm the role of the CBS 844ins68 insertion in recurrent miscarriage.

Reproductive outcome in pregnant women with recurrent pregnancy loss

Abstract PURPOSE: To estimate the future pregnancy success rate in women with a history of recurrent pregnancy loss. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study including 103 women seen at a clinic for recurrent pregnancy loss (loss group) between January 2006 and December 2010 and a control group including 204 pregnant women seen at a low-risk prenatal care unit between May 2007 and April 2008. Both groups were seen in the university teaching hospital the Maternidade Climério de Oliveira, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil. Reproductive success rate was defined as an alive-birth, independent of gestational age at birth and survival after the neonatal period. Continuous variables Means and standard deviations (SD) were compared using Student's t-test and nominal variables proportions by Pearson χ2test. RESULTS: Out of 90 who conceived, 83 (91.2%) had reproductive success rate. There were more full-term pregnancies in the control than in the loss group (174/187; 92.1 versus 51/90; 56.7%; p<0.01). The prenatal visits number was satisfactory for 76 (85.4%) women in the loss group and 125 (61.3%) in the control (p<0.01). In this, the beginning of prenatal care was earlier (13.3; 4.2 versus 19.6; 6.9 weeks). During pregnancy, the loss group women increased the weight more than those in the control group (58.1 versus 46.6%; p=0.04). Although cervix cerclage was performed in 32/90 women in the loss group, the pregnancy duration mean was smaller (34.8 weeks; SD=5.6 versus 39.3 weeks; SD=1.6; p<0.01) than in the control group. Due to gestational complications, cesarean delivery predominated in the loss group (55/83; 64.7 versus 73/183; 39.5%; p<0.01). CONCLUSION: A very good reproductive success rate can be attributed to greater availability of healthcare services to receive pregnant women, through prenatal visits (scheduled or not), cervical cerclage performed on time, and available hospital care for the mother and newborn.