Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

Microstrip antenna array for multiband dedicated short range communications systems

Dedicated Short Range Communications (DSRC) is the key enabling technology for the present and future vehicular communication for various applications, such as safety improvement and traffic jam mitigation. This paper describes the development of a microstrip antenna array for the roadside equipment of a DSRC system, whose characteristics are according with the vehicular communications standards. The proposed antenna, with circular polarization, has a wide bandwidth, enough to cover the current European DSRC 5.8 GHz band and the future 5.9 GHz band for next generation DSRC communications. (C) 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Microwave Opt Technol Lett 53: 2794-2796, 2011; View this article online at wileyonlinelibrary.com. DOI 10.1002/mop.26394

Semiconductor Device as Optical Demultiplexer for Short Range Optical Communications

In this paper we present results on the use of a multilayered a-SiC:H heterostructure as a wavelength-division demultiplexing device for the visible light spectrum. The proposed device is composed of two stacked p-i-n photodiodes with intrinsic absorber regions adjusted to short and long wavelength absorption and carrier collection. An optoelectronic characterisation of the device was performed in the visible spectrum. Demonstration of the device functionality for WDM applications was done with three different input channels covering the long, the medium and the short wavelengths in the visible range. The recovery of the input channels is explained using the photocurrent spectral dependence on the applied voltage. An electrical model of the WDM device is proposed and supported by the solution of the respective circuit equations. Short range optical communications constitute the major application field, however other applications are also foreseen.

Mergers and acquisitions as strategies of business expansion in the pharmaceutical industry

Introduction: The present paper deals with the issue of the increasing usage of corporation mergers and acquisitions strategies within pharmaceutical industry environment. The aim is to identify the triggers of such business phenomenon and the immediate impact on the financial outcome of two powerful biopharmaceutical corporations: Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline, which have been sampled due to their successful approach of the tactics in question. Materials and Methods: In order to create an overview of the development steps through mergers and acquisitions, the historical data of the two corporations has been consulted, from their official websites. The most relevant events were then associated with adequate information from the financial reports and statements of the two corporations indulged by web-based financial data providers. Results and Discussions: In the past few decades Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline have purchased or merged with various companies in order to monopolize new markets, diversify products and services portfolios, survive and surpass competitors. The consequences proved to be positive although this approach implies certain capital availability. Conclusions: Results reveal the fact that, as far as the two sampled companies are concerned, acquisitions and mergers are reactions at the pressure of the highly competitive environment. Moreover, the continuous diversification of the market’s needs is also a consistent motive. However, the prevalence and the eminence of mergers and acquisition strategies are conditioned by the tender offer, the announcer’s caliber, research and development status and further other factors determined by the internal and external actors of the market.

A data-mining-based methodology for transmission expansion planning

In recent decades, all over the world, competition in the electric power sector has deeply changed the way this sector’s agents play their roles. In most countries, electric process deregulation was conducted in stages, beginning with the clients of higher voltage levels and with larger electricity consumption, and later extended to all electrical consumers. The sector liberalization and the operation of competitive electricity markets were expected to lower prices and improve quality of service, leading to greater consumer satisfaction. Transmission and distribution remain noncompetitive business areas, due to the large infrastructure investments required. However, the industry has yet to clearly establish the best business model for transmission in a competitive environment. After generation, the electricity needs to be delivered to the electrical system nodes where demand requires it, taking into consideration transmission constraints and electrical losses. If the amount of power flowing through a certain line is close to or surpasses the safety limits, then cheap but distant generation might have to be replaced by more expensive closer generation to reduce the exceeded power flows. In a congested area, the optimal price of electricity rises to the marginal cost of the local generation or to the level needed to ration demand to the amount of available electricity. Even without congestion, some power will be lost in the transmission system through heat dissipation, so prices reflect that it is more expensive to supply electricity at the far end of a heavily loaded line than close to an electric power generation. Locational marginal pricing (LMP), resulting from bidding competition, represents electrical and economical values at nodes or in areas that may provide economical indicator signals to the market agents. This article proposes a data-mining-based methodology that helps characterize zonal prices in real power transmission networks. To test our methodology, we used an LMP database from the California Independent System Operator for 2009 to identify economical zones. (CAISO is a nonprofit public benefit corporation charged with operating the majority of California’s high-voltage wholesale power grid.) To group the buses into typical classes that represent a set of buses with the approximate LMP value, we used two-step and k-means clustering algorithms. By analyzing the various LMP components, our goal was to extract knowledge to support the ISO in investment and network-expansion planning.

Modelo SIG para apoio à análise de sistemas de transportes e usos do solo

Dissertação de natureza científica para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil

Estudo de tecnologias domóticas e a sua aplicação em projectos

Actualmente a área da domótica (automação de casas e edifícios) encontra-se em franca expansão, com principal relevância nos países mais desenvolvidos, com um crescimento de mercado de mais de 10% ao ano. Existem inúmeras razoes para a crescente implantação da domótica em edifícios, entre as quais a maior eficiência energética, o aumento da segurança e a redução do custo de aquisição das tecnologias. No que diz respeito as habitações particulares, acrescenta-se essencialmente o aumento do conforto devido ao grau de automação trazido pela domótica. Apesar da domótica não ser uma área cientifico-tecnológica recente, a rápida evolução das tecnologias associadas, nomeadamente a nível das redes de comunicação com e sem fios, foi uma das razoes fundamentais para a elaboração desta Tese. Acresce o facto de o candidato estar actualmente envolvido profissionalmente na área, pelo qual esta Tese assume uma particular importância. Realizou-se um estudo comparativo das tecnologias de domótica mais relevantes, escolhidas quer pelas suas características técnicas quer pela sua implantação de mercado e potencial futuro - KNX/EIB, LonWorks, HomePlug, ZigBee e Z-Wave. Destas, comprovou-se que as duas primeiras são aquelas que, actualmente, tem maior adequabilidade para serem aplicadas em projectos de domótica. Foi por isso efectuado um estudo mais elaborado das tecnologias LonWorks e KNX/EIB, incluindo a forma pratica de instalação/programação, a elaboração de dois demonstradores e de dois projectos (de acordo com um caderno de encargos real), usando as duas tecnologias. Concluiu-se que a tecnologia LonWorks apresenta vantagens no que respeita a escalabilidade (dimensão) dos sistemas. Em termos futuros, prevê-se a necessidade da interoperabilidade entre os nos/redes cablados (tradicionais) com nos/redes sem fio, seguindo a tendência para os ambientes inteligentes (“ambient intelligence/assisted living”, “smart spaces”, “ubiquitous computing).

Capillary bridging and long-range attractive forces in a mean-field approach

When a mixture is confined, one of the phases can condense out. This condensate, which is otherwise metastable in the bulk, is stabilized by the presence of surfaces. In a sphere-plane geometry, routinely used in atomic force microscope and surface force apparatus, it, can form a bridge connecting the surfaces. The pressure drop in the bridge gives rise to additional long-range attractive forces between them. By minimizing the free energy of a binary mixture we obtain the force-distance curves as well as the structural phase diagram of the configuration with the bridge. Numerical results predict a discontinuous transition between the states with and without the bridge and linear force-distance curves with hysteresis. We also show that similar phenomenon can be observed in a number of different systems, e.g., liquid crystals and polymer mixtures. (C). 2004 American Institute of Physics.

Does diaphragmatic breathing technique really improve its range of motion? An objective assessment

Purpose - To verify the results of a diaphragmatic breathing technique (DBT) on diaphragmatic range of motion in healthy subjects. Methods - A total of 51 healthy subjects (10 male; 41 female), mean age 20 years old and a body mass index (BMI) ranging from 15.6 to 34.9 kg/m2, were enrolled in this study. Diaphragmatic range of motion was assessed by M-mode ultrasound imaging. Measurements were made before and after the DBT implementation in a standard protocol, based on 3 seconds of inspiration starting from a maximum expiration. Differences between assessments were analyzed by descriptive statistics and t-test (p < 0.05). Results - Mean value range of motion before DBT was 55.3 ± 13.4 mm and after DBT was 63.8 ± 13.2 mm showing a significant improvement of 8.5 ± 14.7 mm (p < 0.001). A strong correlation between the slope and the range of motion was found (r = 0.71, p < 0.001). Conclusions - Based on ultrasound measurements, it has been proved that DBT really contributes to a higher diaphragmatic range of motion. Future studies are needed in order to understand the influence of protocol parameters (e.g. inspiration time). Clinical implications - In the contest of evidence-based practice in physiotherapy, it has been showed by objective measurements that DBT improves the diaphragm range of motion, translating into a more efficient ventilatory function and thus can be used in clinical setting. To our knowledge this is the first study to assess the effects of DBT on range of motion of diaphragm muscle with ultrasound imaging.

Short- and medium-term effects of manual therapy on cervical active range of motion and pressure pain sensitivity in latent myofascial pain of the upper trapezius muscle: a randomized controlled trial

Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate effects of different manual techniques on cervical ranges of 17 motion and pressure pain sensitivity in subjects with latent trigger point of the upper trapezius muscle. 18 Methods: One hundred seventeen volunteers, with a unilateral latent trigger point on upper trapezius due to computer 19 work, were randomly divided into 5 groups: ischemic compression (IC) group (n = 24); passive stretching group (n = 20 23); muscle energy technique group (n = 23); and 2 control groups, wait-and-see group (n = 25) and placebo group 21 (n = 22). Cervical spine range of movement was measured using a cervical range of motion instrument as well as 22 pressure pain sensitivity by means of an algometer and a visual analog scale. Outcomes were assessed pretreatment, 23 immediately, and 24 hours after the intervention and 1 week later by a blind researcher. A 4 × 5 mixed repeated- 24 measures analysis of variance was used to examine the effects of the intervention and Cohen d coefficient was used. 25 Results: A group-by-time interaction was detected in all variables (P b .01), except contralateral rotation. The 26 immediate effect sizes of the contralateral flexion, ipsilateral rotation, and pressure pain threshold were large for 3 27 experimental groups. Nevertheless, after 24 hours and 1 week, only IC group maintained the effect size. 28 Conclusions: Manual techniques on upper trapezius with latent trigger point seemed to improve the cervical range of 29 motion and the pressure pain sensitivity. These effects persist after 1 week in the IC group. (J Manipulative Physiol 301 Ther 2013;xx:1-10)

Broad-temperature range spectroscopy of the two-centre modular redox metalloprotein Desulfovibrio desulfuricans desulfoferrodoxin

Dalton Trans., 2003, 3328-3338

Density measurements of compressed dipropyl, dibutul, bis (2-ethylhexyl) adipates from (293 to 373K) at pressures up to about 68MPa

The article reports density measurements of dipropyl (DPA), dibutyl (DBA) and bis(2-ethylhexyl) (DEHA) adipates, using a vibrating U-tube densimeter, model DMA HP, from Anton Paar GmbH. The measurements were performed in the temperature range (293 to 373) K and at pressures up to about 68 MPa, except for DPA for which the upper limits were 363 K and 65 MPa, respectively. The density data for each liquid was correlated with the temperature and pressure using a modified Tait equation. The expanded uncertainty of the present density results is estimated as 0.2% at a 95% confidence level. No literature density data at pressures higher than 0.1 MPa could be found. DEHA literature data at atmospheric pressure agree with the correlation of the present measurements, in the corresponding temperature range, within +/- 0.11%. The isothermal compressibility and the isobaric thermal expansion were calculated by differentiation of the modified Tait correlation equation. These two parameters were also calculated for dimethyl adipate (DMA), from density data reported in a previous work. The uncertainties of isothermal compressibility and the isobaric thermal expansion are estimated to be less than +/- 1.7% and +/- 1.1%, respectively, at a 95% confidence level. Literature data of isothermal compressibility and isobaric thermal expansivity for DMA have an agreement within +/- 1% and +/- 2.4%, respectively, with results calculated in this work. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On semigroups of endomorphisms of a chain with restricted range

Let X be a finite or infinite chain and let be the monoid of all endomorphisms of X. In this paper, we describe the largest regular subsemigroup of and Green's relations on. In fact, more generally, if Y is a nonempty subset of X and is the subsemigroup of of all elements with range contained in Y, we characterize the largest regular subsemigroup of and Green's relations on. Moreover for finite chains, we determine when two semigroups of the type are isomorphic and calculate their ranks.

Study of thermochemical treatments of cork in the 150-400ºC range using colour analysis and Ftir spectroscopy

A study of chemical transformations of cork during heat treatments was made using colour variation and FTIR analysis. The cork enriched fractions from Quercus cerris bark were subjected to isothermal heating in the temperature range 150–400 ◦C and treatment time from 5 to 90 min. Mass loss ranged from 3% (90 min at 150 ◦C) to 71% (60 min at 350 ◦C). FTIR showed that hemicelluloses were thermally degraded first while suberin remained as the most heat resistant component. The change of CIE-Lab parameters was rapid for low intensity treatments where no significant mass loss occurred (at 150 ◦C L* decreased from the initial 51.5 to 37.3 after 20 min). The decrease in all colour parameters continued with temperature until they remained substantially constant with over 40% mass loss. Modelling of the thermally induced mass loss could be made using colour analysis. This is applicable to monitoring the production of heat expanded insulation agglomerates.

Comparison between monopolar and bipolar microsecond range pulsed electric fields in enhancement of apple juice extraction

The effect of monopolar and bipolar shaped pulses in additional yield of apple juice extraction is evaluated. The applied electric field strength, pulsewidth, and number of pulses are assessed for both pulse types, and divergences are analyzed. Variation of electric field strength is ranged from 100 to 1300 V/cm, pulsewidth from 20 to 300 mu s, and the number of pulses from 10 to 200, at a frequency of 200 Hz. Two pulse trains separated by 1 s are applied to apple cubes. Results are plotted against reference untreated samples for all assays. Specific energy consumption is calculated for each experiment as well as qualitative indicators for apple juice of total soluble dry matter and absorbance at 390-nm wavelength. Bipolar pulses demonstrated higher efficiency, and specific energetic consumption has a threshold where higher inputs of energy do not result in higher juice extraction when electric field variation is applied. Total soluble dry matter and absorbance results do not illustrate significant differences between application of monopolar and bipolar pulses, but all values are inside the limits proposed for apple juice intended for human consumption.