Fuzzy real option analysis in patent related decision making and patent valuation

The shift towards a knowledge-based economy has inevitably prompted the evolution of patent exploitation. Nowadays, patent is more than just a prevention tool for a company to block its competitors from developing rival technologies, but lies at the very heart of its strategy for value creation and is therefore strategically exploited for economic pro t and competitive advantage. Along with the evolution of patent exploitation, the demand for reliable and systematic patent valuation has also reached an unprecedented level. However, most of the quantitative approaches in use to assess patent could arguably fall into four categories and they are based solely on the conventional discounted cash flow analysis, whose usability and reliability in the context of patent valuation are greatly limited by five practical issues: the market illiquidity, the poor data availability, discriminatory cash-flow estimations, and its incapability to account for changing risk and managerial flexibility. This dissertation attempts to overcome these impeding barriers by rationalizing the use of two techniques, namely fuzzy set theory (aiming at the first three issues) and real option analysis (aiming at the last two). It commences with an investigation into the nature of the uncertainties inherent in patent cash flow estimation and claims that two levels of uncertainties must be properly accounted for. Further investigation reveals that both levels of uncertainties fall under the categorization of subjective uncertainty, which differs from objective uncertainty originating from inherent randomness in that uncertainties labelled as subjective are highly related to the behavioural aspects of decision making and are usually witnessed whenever human judgement, evaluation or reasoning is crucial to the system under consideration and there exists a lack of complete knowledge on its variables. Having clarified their nature, the application of fuzzy set theory in modelling patent-related uncertain quantities is effortlessly justified. The application of real option analysis to patent valuation is prompted by the fact that both patent application process and the subsequent patent exploitation (or commercialization) are subject to a wide range of decisions at multiple successive stages. In other words, both patent applicants and patentees are faced with a large variety of courses of action as to how their patent applications and granted patents can be managed. Since they have the right to run their projects actively, this flexibility has value and thus must be properly accounted for. Accordingly, an explicit identification of the types of managerial flexibility inherent in patent-related decision making problems and in patent valuation, and a discussion on how they could be interpreted in terms of real options are provided in this dissertation. Additionally, the use of the proposed techniques in practical applications is demonstrated by three fuzzy real option analysis based models. In particular, the pay-of method and the extended fuzzy Black-Scholes model are employed to investigate the profitability of a patent application project for a new process for the preparation of a gypsum-fibre composite and to justify the subsequent patent commercialization decision, respectively; a fuzzy binomial model is designed to reveal the economic potential of a patent licensing opportunity.

Sustainable development: conceptualizations and measurement

The paper builds up from a review of some expected, but other quite surprising results regarding country estimates for the year 2000 of genuine saving, a sustainability indicator developed by a World Bank research team. We examine this indicator, founded on neoclassical welfare theory, and discuss one of its major problems. Theoretical developments from ecological economics are then considered, together with insights from Georgescu-Roegen's approach to the production process, in search for an alternative approach. A model with potentially fruitful contributions in this direction is reviewed; it points the course efforts could take enable sustainability evaluations based on a more realistic set of interrelated monetary and biophysical indicators.

Concept analysis in social studies

This project was undertaken because of a need to analyse concepts in social science more specifically and sequence them more carefully in a social science program. Concepts have been identified vaguely on many curriculum documents or left in isolation from each other when they are specifically identified. The project's aim was to identify a method for analysing concepts and sequencing their teaching on some rational basis. Once the method for analysing concepts was identified a questionnaire was designed and administered to a random sample of students at the grade three, five and eight levels. The questionnaire attempted to measure their comprehension of specific social science concepts at several levels which became progressively more complex. The major hypothesis was that there would be a direct correlation between age and achievement on the questionnaire. The raw scores were seriated and correlated with the ages of the students using the rankdifference- squared method. For the majority of areas tested it was found that there was a significant correlation between age and achievement on the questionnaire. Variation in the correlation coefficients generated suggests that comprehension of social science concepts is not simply a function of age but is probably a function of several inter-related factors such as reading ability, skill in Basic Thinking Skills and age. Thirty students completed each test. There were three tests in the questionnaire.

Charles Clarke Chapman and family, 1890

Studio portrait of Charles Clarke Chapman with his brothers and sisters, 1890. Back row: Charles C. Chapman, Emma Johnson [Mrs. Lewis], Franklin Marion Chapman. Front row, left to right: Colum C. Chapman, Dolla [Harris], Louella [Thamer], Samuel James.

Sketch of Charles Clarke Chapman

Photographic copy of a portrait sketch of Charles C. Chapman in the Chapman College president's office, Orange, California

Charles Clarke Chapman, portrait engraving

Engraved portrait of Charles Clarke Chapman, in book produced by the Historic Record Company, ca. 1911.

Charles Clarke Chapman, Los Angeles, California, 1923

Charles Clarke Chapman, Los Angeles, California, 1923. Photographic portrait taken outdoors, postcard format.

Charles Clarke Chapman

Copy of studio portrait of Charles Clarke Chapman, ca. 1925.

Charles Clarke Chapman, 1942

Photographico portrait of Charles Clarke Chapman, Taken by Bob Gamble, Hollywood, California, 1942

Charles Clarke Chapman, 1942

Studio portrait of Charles Clarke Chapman, taken by the Edwards-Hostetler studio, Los Angeles, California, 1942. Signed on photo mount "Sincerely Yours, Charles C. Chapman."

Charles Clarke Chapman, ca. 1942

Original mounted photograph, signed by the photographer [Hartsook], as well as by C. C. Chapman [Affectionately yours, Father], ca. 1942.

Charles Clarke Chapman, Los Angeles, California, ca. 1895

Studio portrait photograph of Charles Clarke Chapman, Los Angeles, California, ca. 1895

Charles Clarke Chapman, Fullerton, California, 1904

Studio portrait of Charles Clarke Chapman, Fullerton, California, 1904, at the time he served as Fullerton's first mayor.

Colum C. Chapman, Chicago, Illinois

Cabinet card photographic portrait of Colum C. Chapman in his National Guard uniform, Chicago, Illinois, ca. 1890.