Framework for assessing the influence of critical infrastructure interdependencies in post-disaster reconstruction management

Due to ever increasing climate instability, the number of natural disasters affecting society and communities is expected to increase globally in the future, which will result in a growing number of casualties and damage to property and infrastructure. Such damage poses crucial challenges for recovery of interdependent critical infrastructures. Post-disaster reconstruction is a complex undertaking as it is not only closely linked to the well-being and essential functioning of society, but also requires a large financial commitment. Management of critical infrastructure during post-disaster recovery needs to be underpinned by a holistic recognition that the recovery of each individual infrastructure system (e.g. energy, water, transport and information and communication technology) can be affected by the interdependencies that exist between these different systems. A fundamental characteristic of these interdependencies is that failure of one critical infrastructure system can result in the failure of other interdependent infrastructures, leading to a cascade of failures, which can impede post-disaster recovery and delay the subsequent reconstruction process. Consequently, there is a critical need for developing a holistic strategy to assess the influence of infrastructure interdependencies, and for incorporating these interdependencies into a post-disaster recovery strategy. This paper discusses four key dimensions of interdependencies that need to be considered in a post-disaster reconstruction planning. Using key concepts and sub-concepts derived from the notion of interdependency, the paper examines how critical infrastructure interdependencies affect the recovery processes of damaged infrastructures.

Community participation in post-disaster reconstruction

When a community already torn by a prolonged war is subsequently subjected to being hit by a natural disaster, the combined impact of such disasters can be extremely devastating. Affected communities often face enormous challenges during the long-term reconstruction, mainly due to the lack of a viable community involvement process. In post-war settings, affected communities are often conceived as being disabled and are hardly ever consulted when reconstruction projects are instigated. This lack of community involvement often leads to poor project planning, decreased community support and an unsustainable completed project. The impact of war, coupled with the tensions created by the poor housing provisions, often hinder the affected residents from integrating permanently into their home communities. This paper identifies a number of fundamental factors that act as barriers to community participation in reconstruction projects. The paper is based on a statistical analysis of a questionnaire survey administered in 2012 in Afghanistan.

The influence of critical infrastructure interdependencies on post-disaster reconstruction: Elements of infrastructure interdependency that impede the post-disaster recovery effort

The importance of developing effective disaster management strategies has significantly grown as the world continues to be confronted with unprecedented disastrous events. Factors such as climate instability, recent urbanization along with rapid population growth in many cities around the world have unwittingly exacerbated the risks of potential disasters, leaving a large number of people and infrastructure exposed to new forms of threats from natural disasters such as flooding, cyclones, and earthquakes. With disasters on the rise, effective recovery planning of the built environment is becoming imperative as it is not only closely related to the well-being and essential functioning of society, but it also requires significant financial commitment. In the built environment context, post-disaster reconstruction focuses essentially on the repair and reconstruction of physical infrastructures. The reconstruction and rehabilitation efforts are generally performed in the form of collaborative partnerships that involve multiple organisations, enabling the restoration of interdependencies that exist between infrastructure systems such as energy, water (including wastewater), transport, and telecommunication systems. These interdependencies are major determinants of vulnerabilities and risks encountered by critical infrastructures and therefore have significant implications for post-disaster recovery. When disrupted by natural disasters, such interdependencies have the potential to promote the propagation of failures between critical infrastructures at various levels, and thus can have dire consequences on reconstruction activities. This paper outlines the results of a pilot study on how elements of infrastructure interdependencies have the potential to impede the post-disaster recovery effort. Using a set of unstructured interview questionnaires, plausible arguments provided by seven respondents revealed that during post-disaster recovery, critical infrastructures are mutually dependent on each other’s uninterrupted availability, both physically and through a host of information and communication technologies. Major disruption to their physical and cyber interdependencies could lead to cascading failures, which could delay the recovery effort. Thus, the existing interrelationship between critical infrastructures requires that the entire interconnected network be considered when managing reconstruction activities during the post-disaster recovery period.

Droplet digital PCR as a useful tool for the quantitative detection of Enterovirus 71

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a contagious viral disease that frequently affects infants and children and present with blisters and flu-like symptoms. This disease is caused by a group of enteroviruses such as enterovirus 71 (EV71) and coxsackievirus A16 (CA16). However, unlike other HFMD causing enteroviruses, EV71 have also been shown to be associated with more severe clinical manifestation such as aseptic meningitis, brainstem and cerebellar encephalitis which may lead to cardiopulmonary failure and death. Clinically, HFMD caused by EV71 is indistinguishable from other HFMD causing enteroviruses such as CA16. Molecular diagnosis methods such as the use of real-time PCR has been used commonly for the identification of EV71. In this study, two platforms namely the real-time PCR and the droplet digital PCR were compared for the detection quantitation of known EV71 viral copy number. The results reveal accurate and consistent results between the two platforms. In summary, the droplet digital PCR was demonstrated to be a promising technology for the identification and quantitation of EV71 viral copy number.

A quantitative metric to identify critical elements within seafood supply networks

A theoretical basis is required for comparing key features and critical elements in wild fisheries and aquaculture supply chains under a changing climate. Here we develop a new quantitative metric that is analogous to indices used to analyse food-webs and identify key species. The Supply Chain Index (SCI) identifies critical elements as those elements with large throughput rates, as well as greater connectivity. The sum of the scores for a supply chain provides a single metric that roughly captures both the resilience and connectedness of a supply chain. Standardised scores can facilitate cross-comparisons both under current conditions as well as under a changing climate. Identification of key elements along the supply chain may assist in informing adaptation strategies to reduce anticipated future risks posed by climate change. The SCI also provides information on the relative stability of different supply chains based on whether there is a fairly even spread in the individual scores of the top few key elements, compared with a more critical dependence on a few key individual supply chain elements. We use as a case study the Australian southern rock lobster Jasus edwardsii fishery, which is challenged by a number of climate change drivers such as impacts on recruitment and growth due to changes in large-scale and local oceanographic features. The SCI identifies airports, processors and Chinese consumers as the key elements in the lobster supply chain that merit attention to enhance stability and potentially enable growth. We also apply the index to an additional four real-world Australian commercial fishery and two aquaculture industry supply chains to highlight the utility of a systematic method for describing supply chains. Overall, our simple methodological approach to empirically-based supply chain research provides an objective method for comparing the resilience of supply chains and highlighting components that may be critical.

Separable spatiotemporal priors for convex reconstruction of time-varying 3D point clouds

Reconstructing 3D motion data is highly under-constrained due to several common sources of data loss during measurement, such as projection, occlusion, or miscorrespondence. We present a statistical model of 3D motion data, based on the Kronecker structure of the spatiotemporal covariance of natural motion, as a prior on 3D motion. This prior is expressed as a matrix normal distribution, composed of separable and compact row and column covariances. We relate the marginals of the distribution to the shape, trajectory, and shape-trajectory models of prior art. When the marginal shape distribution is not available from training data, we show how placing a hierarchical prior over shapes results in a convex MAP solution in terms of the trace-norm. The matrix normal distribution, fit to a single sequence, outperforms state-of-the-art methods at reconstructing 3D motion data in the presence of significant data loss, while providing covariance estimates of the imputed points.

Customised osteotomy guides and endoprosthetic reconstruction for periacetabular tumours

Purpose We sought to analyse clinical and oncological outcomes of patients after guided resection of periacetabular tumours and endoprosthetic reconstruction of the remaining defect. Methods From 1988 to 2008, we treated 56 consecutive patients (mean age 52.5 years, 41.1 % women). Patients were followed up either until death or February 2011 (mean follow up 5.5 years, range 0.1–22.5, standard deviation ± 5.3). Kaplan–Meier analysis was used to estimate survival rates. Results Disease-specific survival was 59.9 % at five years and 49.7 % at ten and 20 years, respectively. Wide resection margins were achieved in 38 patients, whereas 11 patients underwent marginal and seven intralesional resection. Survival was significantly better in patients with wide or marginal resection than in patients with intralesional resection (p = 0.022). Survival for patients with secondary tumours was significantly worse than for patients with primary tumours (p = 0.003). In 29 patients (51.8 %), at least one reoperation was necessary, resulting in a revision-free survival of 50.5 % at five years, 41.1 % at ten years and 30.6 % at 20 years. Implant survival was 77.0 % at five years, 68.6 % at ten years and 51.8 % at 20 years. A total of 35 patients (62.5 %) experienced one or more complications after surgery. Ten of 56 patients (17.9 %) experienced local recurrence after a mean of 8.9 months. The mean postoperative Musculoskeletal Tumor Society (MSTS) score was 18.1 (60.1 %). Conclusion The surgical approach assessed in this study simplifies the process of tumour resection and prosthesis implantation and leads to acceptable clinical and oncological outcomes.

Analysis of focal adhesion turnover: A quantitative live-cell imaging example

Recent advances in optical and fluorescent protein technology have rapidly raised expectations in cell biology, allowing quantitative insights into dynamic intracellular processes like never before. However, quantitative live-cell imaging comes with many challenges including how best to translate dynamic microscopy data into numerical outputs that can be used to make meaningful comparisons rather than relying on representative data sets. Here, we use analysis of focal adhesion turnover dynamics as a straightforward specific example on how to image, measure, and analyze intracellular protein dynamics, but we believe this outlines a thought process and can provide guidance on how to understand dynamic microcopy data of other intracellular structures.

Using quantitative wastewater analysis to measure daily usage of conventional and emerging illicit drugs at an annual music festival

Introduction and Aims Wastewater analysis provides a non-intrusive way of measuring drug use within a population. We used this approach to determine daily use of conventional illicit drugs [cannabis, cocaine, methamphetamine and 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA)] and emerging illicit psychostimulants (benzylpiperazine, mephedrone and methylone) in two consecutive years (2010 and 2011) at an annual music festival. Design and Methods Daily composite wastewater samples, representative of the festival, were collected from the on-site wastewater treatment plant and analysed for drug metabolites. Data over 2 years were compared using Wilcoxon matched-pair test. Data from 2010 festival were compared with data collected at the same time from a nearby urban community using equivalent methods. Results Conventional illicit drugs were detected in all samples whereas emerging illicit psychostimulants were found only on specific days. The estimated per capita consumption of MDMA, cocaine and cannabis was similar between the two festival years. Statistically significant (P < 0.05; Z = −2.0–2.2) decreases were observed in use of methamphetamine and one emerging illicit psychostimulant (benzyl piperazine). Only consumption of MDMA was elevated at the festival compared with the nearby urban community. Discussion and Conclusions Rates of substance use at this festival remained relatively consistent over two monitoring years. Compared with the urban community, drug use among festival goers was only elevated for MDMA, confirming its popularity in music settings. Our study demonstrated that wastewater analysis can objectively capture changes in substance use at a music setting without raising major ethical issues. It would potentially allow effective assessments of drug prevention strategies in such settings in the future.

Biceps femoris architecture and strength in athletes with a prior ACL reconstruction

Purpose To determine if limbs with a history of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury reconstructed from the semitendinosus (ST) display different biceps femoris long head (BFlh) architecture and eccentric strength, assessed during the Nordic hamstring exercise, compared to the contralateral uninjured limb. Methods The architectural characteristics of the BFlh were assessed at rest and at 25% of a maximal voluntary isometric contraction (MVIC) in the control (n=52) and previous ACL injury group (n=15) using two-dimensional ultrasonography. Eccentric knee-flexor strength was assessed during the Nordic hamstring exercise. Results Fascicle length was shorter (p=0.001; d range: 0.90 to 1.31) and pennation angle (p range: 0.001 to 0.006: d range: 0.87 to 0.93) was greater in the BFlh of the ACL injured limb when compared to the contralateral uninjured limb at rest and during 25% of MVIC. Eccentric strength was significantly lower in the ACL injured limb than the contralateral uninjured limb (-13.7%; -42.9N; 95% CI = -78.7 to -7.2; p=0.021; d=0.51). Fascicle length, MVIC and eccentric strength were not different between the left and right limb in the control group. Conclusions Limbs with a history of ACL injury reconstructed from the ST have shorter fascicles and greater pennation angles in the BFlh compared to the contralateral uninjured side. Eccentric strength during the Nordic hamstring exercise of the ACL injured limb is significantly lower than the contralateral side. These findings have implications for ACL rehabilitation and hamstring injury prevention practices which should consider altered architectural characteristics.

A 3-hour quantitative comparison of glucose-based versus rice-based oral rehydration solution intake by children with diarrhoea in Port Moresby General Hospital

Measurements were made of the intake of a WHO/UNICEF glucose-based and a rice cereal-based oral rehydration solution (ORS) by children with diarrhoea. Twenty children who presented to the Children's Outpatient Department at Port Moresby General Hospital with acute diarrhoea and mild dehydration were randomly assigned to an ORS and measurements were taken over the following 3 hours. For data analysis, the patients were paired by weight. Testing the means of the paired samples by t test showed that there was no significant difference between the amount of rice ORS and the amount of glucose ORS taken over 3 hours. The discovery of oral rehydration solution (ORS) for the treatment of diarrheal disease has been heralded as the most important medical discovery of the century. Cereal-based ORS is able to decrease stool output and the duration of diarrheal illness more than the standard glucose-based ORS, through the increased absorption provided by oligosaccharides without the imposition of a greater osmotic penalty. Moreover, the peptides in cereals enhance amino acid and water absorption, while providing nutritional benefits. UNICEF's glucose-based ORS is becoming more widely used in Papua New Guinea (PNG). 20 children aged 6-37 months (mean age, 15 months) who presented to the Children's Outpatient Department at Port Moresby General Hospital during September-October 1993 with acute diarrhea and mild dehydration were randomly assigned to receive either a rice-based ORS or standard glucose ORS, and measurements were taken over the following 3 hours. The patients were paired by weight for analysis. No statistically significant difference was found between the amount of rice ORS and the amount of glucose ORS taken over 3 hours.

Reconstruction from incomplete data in cone-beam tomography

A method for reconstruction of an object f(x) x=(x,y,z) from a limited set of cone-beam projection data has been developed. This method uses a modified form of convolution back-projection and projection onto convex sets (POCS) for handling the limited (or incomplete) data problem. In cone-beam tomography, one needs to have a complete geometry to completely reconstruct the original three-dimensional object. While complete geometries do exist, they are of little use in practical implementations. The most common trajectory used in practical scanners is circular, which is incomplete. It is, however, possible to recover some of the information of the original signal f(x) based on a priori knowledge of the nature of f(x). If this knowledge can be posed in a convex set framework, then POCS can be utilized. In this report, we utilize this a priori knowledge as convex set constraints to reconstruct f(x) using POCS. While we demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm for circular trajectories, it is essentially geometry independent and will be useful in any limited-view cone-beam reconstruction.

Study of reproducibility of human arterial plaque reconstruction and its effects on stress analysis based on multispectral in vivo magnetic resonance imaging

Purpose: To quantify the uncertainties of carotid plaque morphology reconstruction based on patient-specific multispectral in vivo magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and their impacts on the plaque stress analysis. Materials and Methods: In this study, three independent investigators were invited to reconstruct the carotid bifurcation with plaque based on MR images from two subjects to study the geometry reconstruction reproducibility. Finite element stress analyses were performed on the carotid bifurcations, as well as the models with artificially modified plaque geometries to mimic the image segmentation uncertainties, to study the impacts of the uncertainties to the stress prediction. Results: Plaque reconstruction reproducibility was generally high in the study. The uncertainties among interobservers are around one or the subpixel level. It also shows that the predicted stress is relatively less sensitive to the arterial wall segmentation uncertainties, and more affected by the accuracy of lipid region definition. For a model with lipid core region artificially increased by adding one pixel on the lipid region boundary, it will significantly increase the maximum Von Mises Stress in fibrous cap (>100%) compared with the baseline model for all subjects. Conclusion: The current in vivo MRI in the carotid plaque could provide useful and reliable information for plaque morphology. The accuracy of stress analysis based on plaque geometry is subject to MRI quality. The improved resolution/quality in plaque imaging with newly developed MRI protocols would generate more realistic stress predictions.

In vivo positive contrast IRON sequence and quantitative T2* measurement confirms inflammatory burden in a patient with asymptomatic carotid atheroma after USPIO-enhanced MR Imaging

The authors report an in vivo human examination of carotid atheroma by using the inversion-recovery ON resonance (IRON) sequence, which is able to produce positive contrast after the infusion of an ultrasmall super paramagnetic iron oxide (USPIO) contrast medium. This technique provides a method of potentially identifying inflammatory burden within carotid atheroma. This may be particularly useful in patients who currently do not meet criteria for intervention (ie, moderate symptomatic stenosis or <70% asymptomatic stenosis) to further risk-stratify this important patient cohort. A 63-year-old man was imaged at 1.5 T before and 36 hours after USPIO infusion by using the IRON sequence. Regions of interest showing profound signal loss at T2*-weighted imaging corresponded well with regions of positive contrast at IRON imaging after the administration of USPIO. These regions also showed a profound decrease in T2* measurements after USPIO infusion, whereas surrounding tissue did not. It has been shown that such strong signal loss on T2*-weighted images after USPIO infusion is indicative of USPIO uptake.

The effectiveness of peer-based interventions on health promoting behaviors in older people: A systematic review protocol of quantitative evidence

Peer-based interventions have the potential to enhance quality of life and functioning; however their role specifically within the older population has not been fully investigated. The objective of this review therefore is to locate, appraise and synthesise evidence on the effectiveness of peer-based interventions on changes in health behaviors, specifically for the older population. The specific question to be answered is: “what is the effectiveness of peer-based interventions on health promoting behaviors in older adults, when compared to non peer-based interventions?”