El Nino and arboviral disease prediction

Recent El Nino events have stimulated interest in the development of modeling techniques to forecast extremes of climate and related health events. Previous studies have documented associations between specific climate variables (particularly temperature and rainfall) and outbreaks of arboviral disease. In some countries, such diseases are sensitive to Fl Nino. Here we describe a climate-based model for the prediction of Ross River virus epidemics in Australia. From a literature search and data on case notifications, we determined in which years there were epidemics of Ross River virus in southern Australia between 1928 and 1998. Predictor variables were monthly Southern Oscillation index values for the year of an epidemic or lagged by 1 year. We found that in southeastern states, epidemic years were well predicted by monthly Southern Oscillation index values in January and September in the previous year. The model forecasts that there is a high probability of epidemic Ross River virus in the southern states of Australia in 1999. We conclude that epidemics of arboviral disease can, at least in principle, be predicted on the basis of climate relationships.

Millennial and orbital variations of El Nino/Southern Oscillation and high-latitude climate in the last glacial period

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is believed to have operated continuously over the last glacial interglacial cycle(1). ENSO variability has been suggested to be linked to millennial-scale oscillations in North Atlantic climate during that time(2,3), but the proposals disagree on whether increased frequency of El Nino events, the warm phase of ENSO, was linked to North Atlantic warm or cold periods. Here we present a high-resolution record of surface moisture, based on the degree of peat humification and the ratio of sedges to grass, from northern Queensland, Australia, covering the past 45,000 yr. We observe millennial-scale dry periods, indicating periods of frequent El Nino events ( summer precipitation declines in El Nino years in northeastern Australia). We find that these dry periods are correlated to the Dansgaard - Oeschger events - millennial-scale warm events in the North Atlantic climate record - although no direct atmospheric connection from the North Atlantic to our site can be invoked. Additionally, we find climatic cycles at a semiprecessional timescale (, 11,900 yr). We suggest that climate variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean on millennial as well as orbital timescales, which determined precipitation in northeastern Australia, also exerted an influence on North Atlantic climate through atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections.

Shell utilization by the land hermit crab Coenobita scaevola (Anomura, Coenobitidae) from Wadi El-Gemal, Red Sea

We conducted a study in order to determine the shell utilization pattern of the land hermit crab Coenobita scaevola (Forskal, 1775), the only species representing the family Coenobitidae in the Red Sea. Hermit crabs were collected during July 2003 and January 2004 along the sandy shores of protected area of Wadi-Elgemal, south Red Sea. Animals were fixed in 10% formalin and transported to the laboratory where they were weighed and measured for cephalothoracic shield length (CSL) and width, left propodus length and height. Gastropod shells species were identified, weighed and measured for shell aperture width and length and shell internal volume. A total of 391 individuals were collected (219 females, 172 males) and were found occupying ten shell species, with clear significant occupation of Nerita undata. A positive relationship was obtained between the size of the shells occupied and the hermit crabs. Analysis of shell internal volume and crab dimensions demonstrated that this shell dimension constitutes mainly the determinant for C. scaevola shell utilization. With respect to the size of the animals and the occupied shell type, Nerita undata was occupied by a wide range of CSL (2.5-8.5mm). Small sized crabs (2.5-3.5mm CSL) occupied Planaxis sulcatus and Nassarius arcularius plicatus while larger specimens (8.5-9.5mm CSL) occupied Turbo radiatits, Polinices milanostomus and Monodonta canilifera. Variations in the shell occupation were also recognized among male and females. Comparisons among populational and shell use features led us to suggest the use of this land hermit crab as key-species in the preserving program of shores and protected areas, since this species is the first organism to disappear from any shore when a new tourist establishment is implemented.

Rickettsial infection in domestic mammals and their ectoparasites in El Valle de Anton, Cocle, Panama

The present research evaluated the presence of Rickettsia spp. on ectoparasites of horses and dogs (using PCR techniques), and their sera (using immunofluorescence assay) in El Valle de Anton town in Panama. A total of 20 horses and 20 dogs were sampled, finding four species of ectoparasites on dogs (the ticks Rhipicephalus sanguineus, Amblyomma ovale, Amblyomma oblongoguttatum, and the flea Ctenocephalides felis), and two tick species on horses (Amblyomma cajennense and Dermacentor nitens). DNA of Rickettsia amblyommii was found in pools of A. cajennense, D. nitens, and R. sanguineus, while Rickettsia fells was detected in C. felis pools. Overall, 70% (14/20) and 65% (13/20) of the horses and dogs, respectively, were seroreactive (titer >= 64) to spotted fever group rickettsiae. Sera from six dogs and five horses reacted to R. amblyommii antigens with titers at least four-fold higher than those for the other antigens tested (Rickettsia bellii, Rickettsia parked, Rickettsia rhipicephali, R. felis, and R. rickettsii). These serological results, coupled with our molecular findings, suggest that these dogs and horses were infected by Rickettsia amblyommii. More studies need to be realized afford to identify the Rickettsia species responsible for other serological and molecular positive results, and their ecological importance. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Boletim eletr??nico de bibliografias especializadas: pol??tica energ??tica - setor el??trico

A implementa????o de uma Pol??tica Energ??tica ?? essencial para o desenvolvimento do Pa??s, na medida em que estabelece metas, meios e diretrizes para melhorar a confiabilidade e a qualidade do suprimento energ??tico. Ela define ainda o papel dos diversos agentes e institui????es que atuam na ??rea energ??tica brasileira. A exist??ncia de tal pol??tica ?? condi????o fundamental para garantir o planejamento das atividades energ??ticas, tanto do lado da produ????o quanto do consumo, sem comprometer o meio ambiente e a qualidade de vida das pr??ximas gera????es. Em fun????o da import??ncia da pol??tica energ??tica ao desenvolvimento sustent??vel e ?? melhoria do bemestar da popula????o brasileira, a 1?? edi????o de 2013 do Boletim Eletr??nico de Bibliografias Especializadas destaca o tema Pol??tica Energ??tica - Setor El??trico, com indica????es de publica????es pertencentes ao acervo da Biblioteca Graciliano Ramos/ENAP. O intuito ?? divulgar obras que possam auxiliar gestores, servidores e trabalhadores da ??rea de Energia no Brasil em seus processos decis??rios, assim como obras que tratam da rica hist??ria do setor e seus planos para o futuro.

M??dulo 1 - ??tica y pr??ctica administrativa en el contexto de las sociedades en proceso de modernizaci??n: curso ??tica y administraci??n p??blica en am??rica latina

Este documento trata de ??tica en el contexto de las sociedades tradicionales, frente al desaf??o del desarrollo econ??mico y social y, sobre todo, de implantaci??n de una gesti??n p??blica moderna; la relevancia de los valores morales y ??ticos en la consolidaci??n de la democracia, de la ciudadan??a y justicia social en las sociedades en desarrollo

M??dulo 3 - perspectivas y pr??cticas en el incentivo a la consciencia y conducta ??tica en el contexto de la administraci??n p??blica: curso ??tica y administraci??n p??blica en Am??rica Latina

Este trabajo se ocupa de las cuatro grandes perspectivas en que se encuadran las propuestas de refuerzo de la dimensi??n ??tica en la gesti??n p??blica; los l??mites y el alcance de los aspectos ??ticos y legales de la pr??ctica administrativa; instrumentos gerenciales y pr??cticas que ayudan el desarrollo de la consciencia ??tica

Colet??nea de pol??ticas p??blicas: volume 2: el papel de la burocracia en el proceso de determinaci??n e implementaci??n de las pol??ticas publicas

O principal objetivo deste livro ?? constituir uma fonte de pesquisa para o estudo do processo de produ????o e implementa????o de pol??ticas p??blicas. Por meio de textos selecionados, analisa-se o pr??prio conceito de pol??ticas p??blicas, discute-se as defini????es utilizadas para distinguir suas diversas fases e apresenta-se algumas das principais correntes te??ricas de an??lise sobre o processo de pol??ticas p??blicas.