The Greying Church: The Impact of Life Expectancy on Religiosity

Many churches are concerned about older and dwindling congregations. We develop a theoretical framework to explain not only the downward trend in church attendance, but also the increase in the proportion of older people in the congregations. Religiosity depends positively on the expected social and spiritual benefits attached to religious adherence, as well as the probability of entering heaven in the afterlife. While otherworldly compensation in terms of salvation and spiritual benefits motivates religiosity, the costs of formal religion in terms of time allocated to communal activities and foregone income work in the opposite direction. We show that higher life expectancy discounts expected benefits in the afterlife and is hence likely to lead to postponement of religiosity. For this reason, religious organizations should be prepared to attract older members to their congregations, while emphasizing contemporaneous religious benefits to increase overall church attendance.

Optimism and commitment: An elementary theory of bargaining and war

We propose an elementary theory of wars fought by fully rational contenders. Two parties play a Markov game that combines stages of bargaining with stages where one side has the ability to impose surrender on the other. Under uncertainty and incomplete information, in the unique equilibrium of the game, long confrontations occur: war arises when reality disappoints initial (rational) optimism, and it persist longer when both agents are optimists but reality proves both wrong. Bargaining proposals that are rejected initially might eventually be accepted after several periods of confrontation. We provide an explicit computation of the equilibrium, evaluating the probability of war, and its expected losses as a function of i) the costs of confrontation, ii) the asymmetry of the split imposed under surrender, and iii) the strengths of contenders at attack and defense. Changes in these parameters display non-monotonic effects.

Using Effluent Charges in Promoting Investment in Water Pollution Control Technology: A Model of Coordination Failure among Firms

Untreated wastewater being directly discharged into rivers is a very harmful environmental hazard that needs to be tackled urgently in many countries. In order to safeguard the river ecosystem and reduce water pollution, it is important to have an effluent charge policy that promotes the investment of wastewater treatment technology by domestic firms. This paper considers the strategic interaction between the government and the domestic firms regarding the investment in the wastewater treatment technology and the design of optimal e­ffluent charge policy that should be implemented. In this model, the higher is the proportion of non-investing firms, the higher would be the probability of having to incur an e­ffluent charge and the higher would be that charge. On one hand the government needs to impose a sufficiently strict policy to ensure that firms have strong incentive to invest. On the other hand, it cannot be too strict that it drives out firms which cannot afford to invest in such expensive technology. The paper analyses the factors that affect the probability of investment in this technology. It also explains the difficulty of imposing a strict environment policy in countries that have too many small firms which cannot afford to invest unless subsidised.

A Comparison Of Forecasting Procedures For Macroeconomic Series: The Contribution Of Structural Break Models

This paper compares the forecasting performance of different models which have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. These models differ in their treatment of the break process, the parameters defining the model which applies in each regime and the out-of-sample probability of a break occurring. In an extensive empirical evaluation involving many important macroeconomic time series, we demonstrate the presence of structural breaks and their importance for forecasting in the vast majority of cases. However, we find no single forecasting model consistently works best in the presence of structural breaks. In many cases, the formal modeling of the break process is important in achieving good forecast performance. However, there are also many cases where simple, rolling OLS forecasts perform well.

A Comparison Of Forecasting Procedures For Macroeconomic Series: The Contribution Of Structural Break Models

This paper compares the forecasting performance of different models which have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. These models differ in their treatment of the break process, the parameters defining the model which applies in each regime and the out-of-sample probability of a break occurring. In an extensive empirical evaluation involving many important macroeconomic time series, we demonstrate the presence of structural breaks and their importance for forecasting in the vast majority of cases. However, we find no single forecasting model consistently works best in the presence of structural breaks. In many cases, the formal modeling of the break process is important in achieving good forecast performance. However, there are also many cases where simple, rolling OLS forecasts perform well.

Volatility of Housing

The aim of the project is to develop a theoretical framework where homelessness arises due to various economic and social factors that vary over time. The ultimate goal is i) to understand whether homelessness spells, entrances and exits could be predicted and if so what information is necessary; and ii) to design and evaluate a homelessness prevention programme in a changing and uncertain environment. Examples of the questions we want to answer are: Should it be made easier for people to borrow money so that they can get out of homelessness, or will such borrowing allow people to over-consume today and so fall into homelessness tomorrow? Should precautionary savings be encouraged so that people have cushions to withstand future shocks, or will savings just delay entry into homelessness? What interventions will affect the probability of becoming homeless and how will they affect behaviour? How will interventions affect incentives to save and to consume before homelessness prevention programmes kick in?

Challenging recommended oral and intravenous voriconazole doses for improved efficacy and safety: population pharmacokinetics-based analysis of adult patients with invasive fungal infections.

BACKGROUND: Recommended oral voriconazole (VRC) doses are lower than intravenous doses. Because plasma concentrations impact efficacy and safety of therapy, optimizing individual drug exposure may improve these outcomes. METHODS: A population pharmacokinetic analysis (NONMEM) was performed on 505 plasma concentration measurements involving 55 patients with invasive mycoses who received recommended VRC doses. RESULTS: A 1-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination best fitted the data. VRC clearance was 5.2 L/h, the volume of distribution was 92 L, the absorption rate constant was 1.1 hour(-1), and oral bioavailability was 0.63. Severe cholestasis decreased VRC elimination by 52%. A large interpatient variability was observed on clearance (coefficient of variation [CV], 40%) and bioavailability (CV 84%), and an interoccasion variability was observed on bioavailability (CV, 93%). Lack of response to therapy occurred in 12 of 55 patients (22%), and grade 3 neurotoxicity occurred in 5 of 55 patients (9%). A logistic multivariate regression analysis revealed an independent association between VRC trough concentrations and probability of response or neurotoxicity by identifying a therapeutic range of 1.5 mg/L (>85% probability of response) to 4.5 mg/L (<15% probability of neurotoxicity). Population-based simulations with the recommended 200 mg oral or 300 mg intravenous twice-daily regimens predicted probabilities of 49% and 87%, respectively, for achievement of 1.5 mg/L and of 8% and 37%, respectively, for achievement of 4.5 mg/L. With 300-400 mg twice-daily oral doses and 200-300 mg twice-daily intravenous doses, the predicted probabilities of achieving the lower target concentration were 68%-78% for the oral regimen and 70%-87% for the intravenous regimen, and the predicted probabilities of achieving the upper target concentration were 19%-29% for the oral regimen and 18%-37% for the intravenous regimen. CONCLUSIONS: Higher oral than intravenous VRC doses, followed by individualized adjustments based on measured plasma concentrations, improve achievement of the therapeutic target that maximizes the probability of therapeutic response and minimizes the probability of neurotoxicity. These findings challenge dose recommendations for VRC.

A bayesian spatial individual effects probit model of the 2010 UK general election

The Conservative Party emerged from the 2010 United Kingdom General Election as the largest single party, but their support was not geographically uniform. In this paper, we estimate a hierarchical Bayesian spatial probit model that tests for the presence of regional voting effects. This model allows for the estimation of individual region-specic effects on the probability of Conservative Party success, incorporating information on the spatial relationships between the regions of the mainland United Kingdom. After controlling for a range of important covariates, we find that these spatial relationships are significant and that our individual region-specic effects estimates provide additional evidence of North-South variations in Conservative Party support.

A balance of questions: what can we ask of climate change economics?

The standard approach to the economics of climate change, which has its best known implementation in Nordhaus's DICE and RICE models (well described in Nordhaus's 2008 book, A Question of Balance) is not well equipped to deal with the possibility of catastrophe, since we are unable to evaluate a risk averse representative agent's expected utility when there is any signi cant probability of zero consumption. Whilst other authors attempt to develop new tools with which to address these problems, the simple solution proposed in this paper is to ask a question that the currently available tools of climate change economics are capable of answering. Rather than having agents optimally choosing a path (that differs from the recommendations of climate scientists) within models which cannot capture the essential features of the problem, I argue that economic models should be used to determine the savings and investment paths which implement climate targets that have been suggested in the physical science literature.

An axiomatization of difference-form contest success functions

This paper presents an axiomatic characterization of difference-form group contests, that is, contests fought among groups and where their probability of victory depends on the difference of their effective efforts. This axiomatization rests on the property of Equalizing Consistency, stating that the difference between winning probabilities in the grand contest and in the smaller contest should be identical across all participants in the smaller contest. This property overcomes some of the drawbacks of the widely-used ratio-form contest success functions. Our characterization shows that the criticisms commonly-held against difference-form contests success functions, such as lack of scale invariance and zero elasticity of augmentation, are unfounded.By clarifying the properties of this family of contest success functions, this axiomatization can help researchers to find the functional form better suited to their application of interest.

Optimisation of antiretroviral therapy : pharmacokinetic and pharmacogenetic approaches

Les progrès de la thérapie antirétrovirale ont transformé l'infection par le VIH d'une condition inévitablement fatale à une maladie chronique. En dépit de ce succès, l'échec thérapeutique et la toxicité médicamenteuse restent fréquents. Une réponse inadéquate au traitement est clairement multifactorielle et une individualisation de la posologie des médicaments qui se baserait sur les facteurs démographiques et génétiques des patients et sur les taux sanguins totaux, libres et/ou cellulaires des médicaments pourrait améliorer à la fois l'efficacité et la tolérance de la thérapie, cette dernière étant certainement un enjeu majeur pour un traitement qui se prend à vie.L'objectif global de cette thèse était de mieux comprendre les facteurs pharmacocinétiques (PK) et pharmacogénétiques (PG) influençant l'exposition aux médicaments antirétroviraux (ARVs) nous offrant ainsi une base rationnelle pour l'optimisation du traitement antiviral et pour l'ajustement posologique des médicaments chez les patients VIH-positifs. Une thérapie antirétrovirale adaptée au patient est susceptible d'augmenter la probabilité d'efficacité et de tolérance à ce traitement, permettant ainsi une meilleure compliance à long terme, et réduisant le risque d'émergence de résistance et d'échec thérapeutique.A cet effet, des méthodes de quantification des concentrations plasmatiques totales, libres et cellulaires des ARVs ainsi que de certains de leurs métabolites ont été développées et validées en utilisant la chromatographie liquide coupée à la spectrométrie de masse en tandem. Ces méthodes ont été appliquées pour la surveillance des taux d'ARVs dans diverses populations de patients HIV-positifs. Une étude clinique a été initiée dans le cadre de l'étude VIH Suisse de cohorte mère-enfant afin de déterminer si la grossesse influence la cinétique des ARVs. Les concentrations totales et libres du lopînavir, de l'atazanavir et de la névirapine ont été déterminées chez les femmes enceintes suivies pendant leur grossesse, et celles-ci ont été trouvées non influencées de manière cliniquement significative par la grossesse. Un ajustement posologique de ces ARVs n'est donc pas nécessaire chez les femmes enceintes. Lors d'une petite étude chez des patients HIV- positifs expérimentés, la corrélation entre l'exposition cellulaire et plasmatique des nouveaux ARVs, notamment le raltégravir, a été déterminée. Une bonne corrélation a été obtenue entre taux plasmatiques et cellulaires de raltégravir, suggérant que la surveillance des taux totaux est un substitut satisfaisant. Cependant, une importante variabilité inter¬patient a été observée dans les ratios d'accumulation cellulaire du raltégravir, ce qui devrait encourager des investigations supplémentaires chez les patients en échec sous ce traitement. L'efficacité du suivi thérapeutique des médicaments (TDM) pour l'adaptation des taux d'efavirenz chez des patients avec des concentrations au-dessus de la cible thérapeutique recommandée a été évaluée lors d'une étude prospective. L'adaptation des doses d'efavirenz basée sur le TDM s'est montrée efficace et sûre, soutenant l'utilisation du TDM chez les patients avec concentrations hors cible thérapeutique. L'impact des polymorphismes génétiques des cytochromes P450 (CYP) 2B6, 2A6 et 3A4/5 sur la pharmacocinétique de l'efavirenz et de ces métabolites a été étudié : un modèle de PK de population intégrant les covariats génétiques et démographiques a été construit. Les variations génétiques fonctionnelles dans les voies de métabolisation principales (CYP2B6) et accessoires {CYP2A6et 3A4/S) de l'efavirenz ont un impact sur sa disposition, et peuvent mener à des expositions extrêmes au médicament. Un? ajustement des doses guidé par le TDM est donc recommandé chez ces patients, en accord avec les polymorphismes génétiques.Ainsi, nous avons démonté qu'en utilisant une approche globale tenant compte à la fois des facteurs PK et PG influençant l'exposition aux ARVs chez les patients infectés, il est possible, si nécessaire, d'individualiser la thérapie antirétrovirale dans des situations diverses. L'optimisation du traitement antirétroviral contribue vraisemblablement à une meilleure efficacité thérapeutique à iong terme tout en réduisant la survenue d'effets indésirables.Résumé grand publicOptimisation de la thérapie antirétrovirale: approches pharmacocinétiques et pharmacogénétiquesLes progrès effectués dans le traitement de l'infection par le virus de llmmunodéficienoe humaine acquise (VIH) ont permis de transformer une affection mortelle en une maladie chronique traitable avec des médicaments de plus en plus efficaces. Malgré ce succès, un certain nombre de patients ne répondent pas de façon optimale à leur traitement etyou souffrent d'effets indésirables médicamenteux entraînant de fréquentes modifications dans leur thérapie. Il a été possible de mettre en évidence que l'efficacité d'un traitement antirétroviral est dans la plupart des cas corrélée aux concentrations de médicaments mesurées dans le sang des patients. Cependant, le virus se réplique dans la cellule, et seule la fraction des médicaments non liée aux protéines du plasma sanguin peut entrer dans la cellule et exercer l'activité antirétrovirale au niveau cellulaire. Il existe par ailleurs une importante variabilité des concentrations sanguines de médicament chez des patients prenant pourtant la même dose de médicament. Cette variabilité peut être due à des facteurs démographiques et/ou génétiques susceptibles d'influencer la réponse au traitement antirétroviral.Cette thèse a eu pour objectif de mieux comprendre les facteurs pharmacologiques et génétiques influençant l'efficacité et ta toxicité des médicaments antirétroviraux, dans le but d'individualiser la thérapie antivirale et d'améliorer le suivi des patients HIV-positifs.A cet effet, des méthodes de dosage très sensibles ont été développées pour permettre la quantification des médicaments antirétroviraux dans le sang et les cellules. Ces méthodes analytiques ont été appliquées dans le cadre de diverses études cliniques réalisées avec des patients. Une des études cliniques a recherché s'il y avait un impact des changements physiologiques liés à la grossesse sur les concentrations des médicaments antirétroviraux. Nous avons ainsi pu démontrer que la grossesse n'influençait pas de façon cliniquement significative le devenir des médicaments antirétroviraux chez les femmes enceintes HIV- positives. La posologie de médicaments ne devrait donc pas être modifiée dans cette population de patientes. Par ailleurs, d'autres études ont portés sur les variations génétiques des patients influençant l'activité enzymatique des protéines impliquées dans le métabolisme des médicaments antirétroviraux. Nous avons également étudié l'utilité d'une surveillance des concentrations de médicament (suivi thérapeutique) dans le sang des patients pour l'individualisation des traitements antiviraux. Il a été possible de mettre en évidence des relations significatives entre l'exposition aux médicaments antirétroviraux et l'existence chez les patients de certaines variations génétiques. Nos analyses ont également permis d'étudier les relations entre les concentrations dans le sang des patients et les taux mesurés dans les cellules où le virus HIV se réplique. De plus, la mesure des taux sanguins de médicaments antirétroviraux et leur interprétation a permis d'ajuster la posologie de médicaments chez les patients de façon efficace et sûre.Ainsi, la complémentarité des connaissances pharmacologiques, génétiques et virales s'inscrit dans l'optique d'une stratégie globale de prise en charge du patient et vise à l'individualisation de la thérapie antirétrovirale en fonction des caractéristiques propres de chaque individu. Cette approche contribue ainsi à l'optimisation du traitement antirétroviral dans la perspective d'un succès du traitement à long terme tout en réduisant la probabilité des effets indésirables rencontrés. - The improvement in antirétroviral therapy has transformed HIV infection from an inevitably fatal condition to a chronic, manageable disease. However, treatment failure and drug toxicity are frequent. Inadequate response to treatment is clearly multifactorial and, therefore, dosage individualisation based on demographic factors, genetic markers and measurement of total, free and/or cellular drug level may increase both drug efficacy and tolerability. Drug tolerability is certainly a major issue for a treatment that must be taken indefinitely.The global objective of this thesis aimed at increasing our current understanding of pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacogenetic (PG) factors influencing the exposition to antirétroviral drugs (ARVs) in HIV-positive patients. In turn, this should provide us with a rational basis for antiviral treatment optimisation and drug dosage adjustment in HIV- positive patients. Patient's tailored antirétroviral regimen is likely to enhance treatment effectiveness and tolerability, enabling a better compliance over time, and hence reducing the probability of emergence of viral resistance and treatment failure.To that endeavour, analytical methods for the measurement of total plasma, free and cellular concentrations of ARVs and some of their metabolites have been developed and validated using liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry. These assays have been applied for the monitoring of ARVs levels in various populations of HIV- positive patients. A clinical study has been initiated within the frame of the Mother and Child Swiss HIV Cohort Study to determine whether pregnancy influences the exposition to ARVs. Free and total plasma concentrations of lopinavir, atazanavir and nevirapine have been determined in pregnant women followed during the course of pregnancy, and were found not influenced to a clinically significant extent by pregnancy. Dosage adjustment for these drugs is therefore not required in pregnant women. In a study in treatment- experienced HIV-positive patients, the correlation between cellular and total plasma exposure to new antirétroviral drugs, notably the HIV integrase inhibitor raltegravir, has been determined. A good correlation was obtained between total and cellular levels of raltegravir, suggesting that monitoring of total levels are a satisfactory. However, significant inter-patient variability was observed in raltegravir cell accumulation which should prompt further investigations in patients failing under an integrase inhibitor-based regimen. The effectiveness of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) to guide efavirenz dose reduction in patients having concentrations above the recommended therapeutic range was evaluated in a prospective study. TDM-guided dosage adjustment of efavirenz was found feasible and safe, supporting the use of TDM in patients with efavirenz concentrations above therapeutic target. The impact of genetic polymorphisms of cytochromes P450 (CYP) 2B6, 2A6 and 3A4/5 on the PK of efavirenz and its metabolites was studied: a population PK model was built integrating both genetic and demographic covariates. Functional genetic variations in main (CYP2B6) and accessory (2A6, 3A4/5) metabolic pathways of efavirenz have an impact on efavirenz disposition, and may lead to extreme drug exposures. Dosage adjustment guided by TDM is thus required in those patients, according to the pharmacogenetic polymorphism.Thus, we have demonstrated, using a comprehensive approach taking into account both PK and PG factors influencing ARVs exposure in HIV-infected patients, the feasibility of individualising antirétroviral therapy in various situations. Antiviral treatment optimisation is likely to increase long-term treatment success while reducing the occurrence of adverse drug reactions.

Analyzing the effects of transient faults into applications

As computer chips implementation technologies evolve to obtain more performance, those computer chips are using smaller components, with bigger density of transistors and working with lower power voltages. All these factors turn the computer chips less robust and increase the probability of a transient fault. Transient faults may occur once and never more happen the same way in a computer system lifetime. There are distinct consequences when a transient fault occurs: the operating system might abort the execution if the change produced by the fault is detected by bad behavior of the application, but the biggest risk is that the fault produces an undetected data corruption that modifies the application final result without warnings (for example a bit flip in some crucial data). With the objective of researching transient faults in computer system’s processor registers and memory we have developed an extension of HP’s and AMD joint full system simulation environment, named COTSon. This extension allows the injection of faults that change a single bit in processor registers and memory of the simulated computer. The developed fault injection system makes it possible to: evaluate the effects of single bit flip transient faults in an application, analyze an application robustness against single bit flip transient faults and validate fault detection mechanism and strategies.

Prospective validation of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index. A clinical prognostic model for pulmonary embolism

Practice guidelines recommend outpatient care for selected patients with non-massive pulmonary embolism (PE), but fail to specify how these low-risk patients should be identified. Using data from U.S. patients, we previously derived the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), a prediction rule that risk stratifies patients with PE. We sought to validate the PESI in a European patient cohort. We prospectively validated the PESI in patients with PE diagnosed at six emergency departments in three European countries. We used baseline data for the rule's 11 prognostic variables to stratify patients into five risk classes (I-V) of increasing probability of mortality. The outcome was overall mortality at 90 days after presentation. To assess the accuracy of the PESI to predict mortality, we estimated the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values for low- (risk classes I/II) versus higher-risk patients (risk classes III-V), and the discriminatory power using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Among 357 patients with PE, overall mortality was 5.9%, ranging from 0% in class I to 17.9% in class V. The 186 (52%) low-risk patients had an overall mortality of 1.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.1-3.8%) compared to 11.1% (95% CI: 6.8-16.8%) in the 171 (48%) higher-risk patients. The PESI had a high sensitivity (91%, 95% CI: 71-97%) and a negative predictive value (99%, 95% CI: 96-100%) for predicting mortality. The area under the ROC curve was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.70-0.86). The PESI reliably identifies patients with PE who are at low risk of death and who are potential candidates for outpatient care. The PESI may help physicians make more rational decisions about hospitalization for patients with PE.

A concentric analysis of the impact of urbanization on the threatened European tree frog in an agricultural landscape

Pond-breeding amphibians are affected by site-specific factors and regional and landscape-scale patterns of land use. Recent anthropogenic landscape modifications (drainage, agriculture intensification, larger road networks, and increased traffic) affect species by reducing the suitable habitat area and fragmenting remaining populations. Using a robust concentric approach based on permutation tests, we evaluated the impact of recent landscape changes on the presence of the endangered European tree frog (Hyla arborea.) in wetlands. We analyzed the frequency of 1 traffic and 14 land-use indices at 20 circular ranges (from 100-m up to 2-km radii) around 76 ponds identified in western Switzerland. Urban areas and road surfaces had a strong adverse effect on tree frog presence even at relatively great distances (from 100 m up to 1 km). When traffic measurements were considered instead of road surfaces, the effect increased, suggesting a negative impact due to a vehicle-induced effect. Altogether, our results indicate that urbanization and traffic must be taken into account when pond creation is an option in conservation management plans, as is the case for the European tree frog in western Switzerland. We conclude that our easy-to-use and robust concentric method of analysis can successfully assist managers in identifying potential sites for pond creation, where probability of the presence of tree frogs is maximized.

Seizures after single-agent overdose with pharmaceutical drugs: Analysis of cases reported to a poison center.

Abstract Context. Seizures during intoxications with pharmaceuticals are a well-known complication. However, only a few studies report on drugs commonly involved and calculate the seizure potential of these drugs. Objectives. To identify the pharmaceutical drugs most commonly associated with seizures after single-agent overdose, the seizure potential of these pharmaceuticals, the age-distribution of the cases with seizures and the ingested doses. Methods. A retrospective review of acute single-agent exposures to pharmaceuticals reported to the Swiss Toxicological Information Centre (STIC) between January 1997 and December 2010 was conducted. Exposures which resulted in at least one seizure were identified. The seizure potential of a pharmaceutical was calculated by dividing the number of cases with seizures by the number of all cases recorded with that pharmaceutical. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Results. We identified 15,441 single-agent exposures. Seizures occurred in 313 cases. The most prevalent pharmaceuticals were mefenamic acid (51 of the 313 cases), citalopram (34), trimipramine (27), venlafaxine (23), tramadol (15), diphenhydramine (14), amitriptyline (12), carbamazepine (11), maprotiline (10), and quetiapine (10). Antidepressants were involved in 136 cases. Drugs with a high seizure potential were bupropion (31.6%, seizures in 6 of 19 cases, 95% CI: 15.4-50.0%), maprotiline (17.5%, 10/57, 95% CI: 9.8-29.4%), venlafaxine (13.7%, 23/168, 95% CI: 9.3-19.7%), citalopram (13.1%, 34/259, 95% CI: 9.5-17.8%), and mefenamic acid (10.9%, 51/470, 95% CI: 8.4-14.0%). In adolescents (15-19y/o) 23.9% (95% CI: 17.6-31.7%) of the cases involving mefenamic acid resulted in seizures, but only 5.7% (95% CI: 3.3-9.7%) in adults (≥ 20y/o; p < 0.001). For citalopram these numbers were 22.0% (95% CI: 12.8-35.2%) and 10.9% (95% CI: 7.1-16.4%), respectively (p = 0.058). The probability of seizures with mefenamic acid, citalopram, trimipramine, and venlafaxine increased as the ingested dose increased. Conclusions. Antidepressants were frequently associated with seizures in overdose, but other pharmaceuticals, as mefenamic acid, were also associated with seizures in a considerable number of cases. Bupropion was the pharmaceutical with the highest seizure potential even if overdose with bupropion was uncommon in our sample. Adolescents might be more susceptible to seizures after mefenamic acid overdose than adults. "Part of this work is already published as a conference abstract for the XXXIV International Congress of the European Association of Poisons Centres and Clinical Toxicologists (EAPCCT) 27-30 May 2014, Brussels, Belgium." Abstract 8, Clin Toxicol 2014;52(4):298.