999 resultados para Probabilistic composition


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The stable isotope composition of waters (delta H-2, delta O-18) can be used as a natural tracer of hydrologic processes in systems affected by acid mine drainage. We investigated the delta H-2 and delta O-18 values of pore waters from four oxidizing sulfidic mine tailings impoundments in different climatic regions of Chile (Piuquenes at La Andina with Alpine climate, Cauquenes and Caren at El Teniente with Mediterranean climate, and Talabre at the Chuquicamata deposit with hyperarid climate). No clear relationship was found between altitude and isotopic composition. The observed displacement of the tailings pore waters from the local meteoric water line toward higher delta O-18 values (by similar to +2% delta O-18 relative to delta H-2) is partly due to water-rock interaction processes, including hydration and O-isotope exchange with sulfates and Fe(III) oxyhydroxides produced by pyrite oxidation. In most tailings, from the saturated zone toward the surface, isotopically different zones can be distinguished. Zone I is characterized by an upward depletion of H-2 and O-18 in the pore waters from the saturated zone and the lowermost vadose zone, due to ascending diffused isotopically light water triggered by the constant loss of water vapor by evaporation at the surface. In zone II, the capillary flow of a mix of vapor and liquid water causes an evaporative isotopic enrichment in H-2 and O-18. At the top of the tailings in dry climate a zone III between the capillary zone and the surface contains isotopically light diffused and atmospheric water vapor. In temperate climates, the upper part of the profile is affected by recent rainfall and zone III may not differ isotopically from zone II.

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Background: Leptin is produced primarily by adipocytes. Although originally associated with the central regulation of satiety and energy metabolism, increasing evidence indicates that leptin may be an important factor for congestive heart faire (CHF). In the study, we aimed to test the hypothesis that leptin may influence CHF pathophysiology via a pathway of increasing body mass index (BMI). Methods: We studied 2,389 elderly participants aged 70 and older (M; 1161, F: 1228) without CHF and with serum leptin measures at the Health Aging, and Body Composition study. We analyzed the association between serum leptin level and risk of incident CHF using Cox hazard proportional regression models. Elevated leptin level was defined as more than the highest quartile (Q4) of leptin distribution in the total sample for each gender. Adjusted-covariates included demographic, behavior, lipid and inflammation variables (partially-adjusted models), and further included BMI (fully-adjusted models). Results: In a mean 9-year follow-up, 316 participants (13.2%) developed CHF. The partially-adjusted models indicated that men and women with elevated serum leptin levels (>=9.89 ng/ml in men and >=25 ng/ml in women) had significantly higher risks of developing CHF than those with leptin level of less than Q4. The adjusted hazard ratios (95%CI) for incident CHF was 1.49 (1.04 -2.13) in men and 1.71 (1.12 -2.58) in women. However, these associations became non-significant after adjustment for including BMI for each gender. The fully-adjusted hazard ratios (95%CI) were 1.43 (0.94 -2.18) in men and 1.24 (0.77-1.99) in women. Conclusion: Subjects with elevated leptin levels have a higher risk of CHF. The study supports the hypothesis that the influence of leptin level on risk of CHF may be through a pathway related to increasing BMI.

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The 24-km diameter Ries crater, Germany, exhibits well-preserved crater filling and surficial melt-rich breccia deposits that are believed to have been altered by post-impact hydrothermal fluids. The alteration mineralogy of the crater filling breccias is characterized by clay (smectite, chlorite) and a zeolite assemblage, and secondary clay phases (smectite, minor halloysite) in surficial melt-bearing breccia deposits. Using stable isotope analysis of secondary smectitic clay fractions, evidence of significant hydrous alteration of impactites at large water/rock ratios was found. The estimated fluid temperatures, using data derived by delta(18)O and delta D fractionation, suggest smectite precipitation in surficial breccias in equilibrium with meteoric fluids at temperatures 16 +/- 5 degrees C in agreement with the long-term variation of modern precipitation in the area. The stable isotope composition of smectite in crater-fill breccia, however, suggests a trend of monotonously increasing temperatures from 43 to 112 degrees C. with increasing depth through the breccia sequence. This demonstrates a different origin of alteration and temperature distribution for the surficial and crater filling melt-bearing impact breccias in the Ries crater. Our results suggest that the inverted structure of hydrothermal systems observed in some terrestrial impact craters, including the Ries crater, could indicate the initial configuration of a thermal anomaly in the crater filling sequence, but which is replaced with a normal hydrothermal convection in crater proper, during the course of post-impact cooling. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Le retard de croissance intra-utérin (RCIU) est défini par une taille et un poids inférieurs au P10 pour l'âge gestationnel. Il est caractérisé, entre autre par une altération de la croissance foetale aboutissant à une résistance à l'hormone de croissance (HC). Bien que la majorité des sujets présente un certain rattrapage en taille, certains développent un retard de croissance ultérieur permanent. L'idée est donc née de traiter ces sujets par haute dose d'HC biosynthétique. La question des risques d'un tel traitement s'est posée en raison de l'effet diabétogène de l'HC et des modifications qu'elle peut induire sur la masse maigre, la masse grasse et la densité osseuse. Le but de l'étude a été d'évaluer l'impact sur la croissance et sur le volet métabolique. Dix enfants prépubères ayant présenté un RCIU sans croissance de rattrapage spontanée ont été traités par HC recombinante à des doses supra physiologiques (53-67 g/kg/jour). La taille, le poids, la taille assise ont été mesurés et des dosages d'IGF1, IGFBP3, glycémie et insuline ont été faits sur une base semestrielle alors qu'une densitométrie osseuse a été faite annuellement sur une période de 3 ans. Le gain en taille a été spectaculaire (+ 1.78 DS), correspondant à plus de 10 cm (p < 0.001). Sous traitement, l'insulinémie et le HOMA ont augmenté sans que ces augmentations soient significatives. La tolérance glucidique est restée dans la norme au prix d'une augmentation de la sécrétion d'insuline. La masse grasse a diminué alors que la masse maigre et la densité osseuse ont augmenté de façon significative. Ces résultats correspondent aux travaux d'autres groupes. Il reste à démontrer que l'hyperinsulinisme transitoire induit par l'HC n'ait pas d'effet néfaste à long terme et en particulier sur le risque de développer ou aggraver un syndrome métabolique à l'âge adulte.

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This paper aims at providing a Bayesian parametric framework to tackle the accessibility problem across space in urban theory. Adopting continuous variables in a probabilistic setting we are able to associate with the distribution density to the Kendall's tau index and replicate the general issues related to the role of proximity in a more general context. In addition, by referring to the Beta and Gamma distribution, we are able to introduce a differentiation feature in each spatial unit without incurring in any a-priori definition of territorial units. We are also providing an empirical application of our theoretical setting to study the density distribution of the population across Massachusetts.

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Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader's own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.

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This paper studies the effects of service offshoring on the skill composition of labor demand, using novel comparable data for nine Western European countries between 1990 and 2004. The empirical analysis delivers three main results. First, service offshoring is skill-biased, because it increases the demand for high and medium skilled labor and decreases the demand for low skilled labor. Second, the effects of service offshoring are similar to those of material offshoring, both qualitatively and quantitatively. Third, the economic magnitude of these effects is not large.

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Forensic scientists working in 12 state or private laboratories participated in collaborative tests to improve the reliability of the presentation of DNA data at trial. These tests were motivated in response to the growing criticism of the power of DNA evidence. The experts' conclusions in the tests are presented and discussed in the context of the Bayesian approach to interpretation. The use of a Bayesian approach and subjective probabilities in trace evaluation permits, in an easy and intuitive manner, the integration into the decision procedure of any revision of the measure of uncertainty in the light of new information. Such an integration is especially useful with forensic evidence. Furthermore, we believe that this probabilistic model is a useful tool (a) to assist scientists in the assessment of the value of scientific evidence, (b) to help jurists in the interpretation of judicial facts and (c) to clarify the respective roles of scientists and of members of the court. Respondents to the survey were reluctant to apply this methodology in the assessment of DNA evidence.

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Drawing on PISA data of 2006, this study examines the impact of socio-economic school composition on science test score achievement for Spanish students in compulsory secondary schools. We define school composition in terms of the average parental human capital of students in the same school. These contextual peer effects are estimated using a semi-parametric methodology, which enables the spillovers to affect all the parameters of the educational production function. We also deal with the potential problem of self-selection of student into schools, using an artificial sorting that we argue to be independent from unobserved student’s abilities. The results indicate that the association between socio-economic school composition and test score results is clearly positive and significantly higher when computed with the semi-parametric approach. However, we find that the endogenous sorting of students into schools plays a fundamental role, given that the spillovers are significantly reduced when this selection process is ruled out from our measure of school composition effects. Specifically, the estimations suggest that the contextual peer effects are moderately positive only in those schools where the socio-economic composition is considerably elevated. In addition, we find some evidence of asymmetry of how the external effects and the sorting process actually operate, which seem affect in a different way males and females as well as high and low performance students.

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Genomes of eusocial insects code for dramatic examples of phenotypic plasticity and social organization. We compared the genomes of seven ants, the honeybee, and various solitary insects to examine whether eusocial lineages share distinct features of genomic organization. Each ant lineage contains ∼4000 novel genes, but only 64 of these genes are conserved among all seven ants. Many gene families have been expanded in ants, notably those involved in chemical communication (e.g., desaturases and odorant receptors). Alignment of the ant genomes revealed reduced purifying selection compared with Drosophila without significantly reduced synteny. Correspondingly, ant genomes exhibit dramatic divergence of noncoding regulatory elements; however, extant conserved regions are enriched for novel noncoding RNAs and transcription factor-binding sites. Comparison of orthologous gene promoters between eusocial and solitary species revealed significant regulatory evolution in both cis (e.g., Creb) and trans (e.g., fork head) for nearly 2000 genes, many of which exhibit phenotypic plasticity. Our results emphasize that genomic changes can occur remarkably fast in ants, because two recently diverged leaf-cutter ant species exhibit faster accumulation of species-specific genes and greater divergence in regulatory elements compared with other ants or Drosophila. Thus, while the "socio-genomes" of ants and the honeybee are broadly characterized by a pervasive pattern of divergence in gene composition and regulation, they preserve lineage-specific regulatory features linked to eusociality. We propose that changes in gene regulation played a key role in the origins of insect eusociality, whereas changes in gene composition were more relevant for lineage-specific eusocial adaptations.