Tidal effects on groundwater dynamics in unconfined aquifers

The variation of seawater level resulting from tidal fluctuations is usually neglected in regional groundwater flow studies. Although the tidal oscillation is damped near the shoreline, there is a quasi-steady-slate rise in the mean water-table position, which may have an influence on regional groundwater flow. In this paper the effects of tidal fluctuations on groundwater hydraulics are investigated using a variably saturated numerical model that includes the effects of a realistic mild beach slope, seepage face and the unsaturated zone. In particular the impact of these factors on the velocity field in the aquifer is assessed. Simulations show that the tidal fluctuation has substantial consequences for the local velocity field in the vicinity of the exit face, which affects the nearshore migration of contaminant in coastal aquifers. An overheight in the water table as a result of the tidal fluctuation is observed anti this has a significant effect on groundwater discharge to the sea when the landward boundary condition is a constant water level. The effect of beach slope is very significant and simplifying the problem by considering a vertical beach face causes serious errors in predicting the water-table position and the groundwater flux. For media with a high effective capillary fringe, the moisture retained above the water table is important in determining the effects of the tidal fluctuations. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Can long-distance dispersal be inferred from the New Zealand plant fossil record?

New Zealand is generally thought to have been physically isolated from the rest of the world for over 60 million years. But physical isolation may not mean biotic isolation, at least on the time scale of millions of years. Are New Zealand's present complement of plants the direct descendants of what originally rafted from Gondwana? Or has there been total extinction of this initial flora with replacement through long-distance dispersal (a complete biotic turnover)? These are two possible extremes which have come under recent discussion. Can the fossil record be used to decide the relative importance of the two endpoints, or is it simply too incomplete and too dependent on factors of chance? This paper suggests two approaches to the problem-the use of statistics to apply levels of confidence to first appearances in the fossil record and the analysis of trends based on the entire palynorecord. Statistics can suggest that the first appearance of a taxon was after New Zealand broke away from Gondwana-as long as the first appearance in the record was not due to an increase in biomass from an initially rare state. Two observations can be drawn from the overall palynorecord that are independent of changes in biomass: (1) The first appearance of palynotaxa common to both Australia and New Zealand is decidedly non-random. Most taxa occur first in Australia. This suggests a bias in air or water transport from west to east. (2) The percentage of endemic palynospecies in New Zealand shows no simple correlation with the time New Zealand drifted into isolation. The conifer macrorecord also hints at complete turnover since the Cretaceous.

Tillage and traffic effects on runoff

Traffic and tillage effects on runoff and crop performance on a heavy clay soil were investigated over a period of 4 years. Tillage treatments and the cropping program were representative of broadacre grain production practice in northern Australia, and a split-plot design used to isolate traffic effects. Treatments subject to zero, minimum, and stubble mulch tillage each comprised pairs of 90-m 2 plots, from which runoff was recorded. A 3-m-wide controlled traffic system allowed one of each pair to be maintained as a non-wheeled plot, while the total surface area of the other received a single annual wheeling treatment from a working 100-kW tractor. Rainfall/runoff hydrographs demonstrate that wheeling produced a large and consistent increase in runoff, whereas tillage produced a smaller increase. Treatment effects were greater on dry soil, but were still maintained in large and intense rainfall events on wet soil. Mean annual runoff from wheeled plots was 63 mm (44%) greater than that from controlled traffic plots, whereas runoff from stubble mulch tillage plots was 38 mm (24%) greater than that from zero tillage plots. Traffic and tillage effects appeared to be cumulative, so the mean annual runoff from wheeled stubble mulch tilled plots, representing conventional cropping practice, was more than 100 mm greater than that from controlled traffic zero tilled plots, representing best practice. This increased infiltration was reflected in an increased yield of 16% compared with wheeled stubble mulch. Minimum tilled plots demonstrated a characteristic midway between that of zero and stubble mulch tillage. The results confirm that unnecessary energy dissipation in the soil during the traction process that normally accompanies tillage has a major negative effect on infiltration and crop productivity. Controlled traffic farming systems appear to be the only practicable solution to this problem.

The Alcohol Helplessness Scale and its prediction of depression among problem drinkers

Event-specific scales commonly have greater power than generalized scales in prediction of specific disorders and in testing mediator models for predicting such disorders. Therefore, in a preliminary study, a 6-item Alcohol Helplessness Scale was constructed and found to be reliable for a sample of 98 problem drinkers. Hierarchical multiple regression and its derivative path analysis were used to test whether helplessness and self-efficacy moderate or mediate the link between alcohol dependence and depression, A test of a moderation model was not supported, whereas a test of a mediation model was supported. Helplessness and self-efficacy both significantly and independently mediated between alcohol dependence and depression. Nevertheless, a significant direct effect of alcohol dependence on depression also remained, (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Brief opportunistic intervention: The role of psychologists in initiating self-change amongst problem drinkers

Excessive consumption of alcohol is a serious public health problem. While intensive treatments are suitable for those who are physically dependent on alcohol, they are not cost-effective options for the vast majority of problem drinkers who are not dependent. There is good evidence that brief interventions are effective in reducing overall alcohol consumption, alcohol-related problems, and health-care utilisation among nondependent problem drinkers. Psychologists are in an ideal position to opportunistically detect people who drink excessively and to offer them brief advice to reduce their drinking. In this paper we outline the process involved in providing brief opportunistic screening and intervention for problem drinkers. We also discuss methods that psychologists can employ if a client is not ready to reduce drinking, or is ambivalent about change. Depending on the client's level of motivation to change, psychologists can engage in either an education-clarification approach, a commitment-enhancement approach, or a skills-training approach. Routine engagement in opportunistic intervention is an important public-health approach to reducing alcohol-related harm in the community.

An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A zero-augmented gamma mixed model for longitudinal data with many zeros

In many occupational safety interventions, the objective is to reduce the injury incidence as well as the mean claims cost once injury has occurred. The claims cost data within a period typically contain a large proportion of zero observations (no claim). The distribution thus comprises a point mass at 0 mixed with a non-degenerate parametric component. Essentially, the likelihood function can be factorized into two orthogonal components. These two components relate respectively to the effect of covariates on the incidence of claims and the magnitude of claims, given that claims are made. Furthermore, the longitudinal nature of the intervention inherently imposes some correlation among the observations. This paper introduces a zero-augmented gamma random effects model for analysing longitudinal data with many zeros. Adopting the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) approach reduces the original problem to the fitting of two independent GLMMs. The method is applied to evaluate the effectiveness of a workplace risk assessment teams program, trialled within the cleaning services of a Western Australian public hospital.

Woodstoves uncovered: a paediatric problem

Objectives: To document and describe the effects of woodstove burns in children. To identify how these accidents occur so that a prevention strategy can be devised. Design, Patients and Setting: Retrospective departmental database and case note review of all children with woodstove burns seen at the Burns Unit of a Tertiary Referral Children's Hospital between January 1997 and September 2001. Main outcome measures: Number and ages of children burned: circumstances of the accidents; injuries-sustained, treatment-required and long-term sequelae. Results. Eleven children, median age 1.0 year, sustained burns, usually to the hands, of varying thickness. Two children required skin grafting and five required scar therapy. Seven children intentionally placed their hands onto the Outside of the stove. In all children, burns occurred despite adult supervision Conclusions: Woodstoves area cause of burns in children. These injuries are associated with significant morbidity and financial costs. Through public education, woodstove burns can easily be prevented utilising simple safety measures. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd and ISBI All rights reserved.

On the Hamilton-Waterloo problem

The Hamilton-Waterloo problem asks for a 2-factorisation of K-v in which r of the 2-factors consist of cycles of lengths a(1), a(2),..., a(1) and the remaining s 2-factors consist of cycles of lengths b(1), b(2),..., b(u) (where necessarily Sigma(i)(=1)(t) a(i) = Sigma(j)(=1)(u) b(j) = v). In thus paper we consider the Hamilton-Waterloo problem in the case a(i) = m, 1 less than or equal to i less than or equal to t and b(j) = n, 1 less than or equal to j less than or equal to u. We obtain some general constructions, and apply these to obtain results for (m, n) is an element of {(4, 6)1(4, 8), (4, 16), (8, 16), (3, 5), (3, 15), (5, 15)}.