Predictors of first-year survival in patients with advanced COPD treated using long-term oxygen therapy

Little evidence-based guidance is available to aid clinicians in determining short-term prognoses in very severe COPD patients. Therefore, the present study was designed to provide a prospective assessment (1) of the mortality rates and (2) whether the baseline measurements may be determinants of 1-year mortality in hypoxemic COPD patients receiving long-term oxygen therapy (LTOT).Seventy-eight clinically stable patients with advanced COPD treated using LTOT were enrolled in a prospective cohort study. Outcome variable: first-year mortality. Baseline measurements: categorical variables: age (<60 or >= 60 years); gender; body mass index (<20 or >= 20 kg/m(2)); fat-free mass (FFM) index (<16 [men] and <15kg/m(2) [women]; baseline dyspnea index (BDI) (<= 3 or >3); and corticosteroid use. Continuous variables: smoking history; lung function; FFM; fat mass; hemoglobin; hematocrit; arterial blood gases; forearm muscle strength; St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ); and comorbidity score. By the end of 1-year of follow-up, 12 patients (15.4%) had died. Kaplan-Meier curves showed that BDI <= 3 was the only variable associated with higher mortality. Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed that tower PaO2 and SPO2, higher PaCO2 and SGRQ scores were associated with reduced survival. In the multivariate analysis, BDI remained predictive of mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 0.50; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.31-0.81), as did PaO2 (HR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.26-0.95). These data suggest that readily available parameters as dyspnea intensity and hypoxemia severity may be useful in predicting first-year survival rates in advanced COPD patients receiving LTOT (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The variability and predictors of quality of AIDS care services in Brazil

Background: Since establishing universal free access to antiretroviral therapy in 1996, the Brazilian Health System has increased the number of centers providing HIV/AIDS outpatient care from 33 to 540. There had been no formal monitoring of the quality of these services until a survey of 336 AIDS health centers across 7 Brazilian states was undertaken in 2002. Managers of the services were asked to assess their clinics according to parameters of service inputs and service delivery processes. This report analyzes the survey results and identifies predictors of the overall quality of service delivery.Methods: The survey involved completion of a multiple-choice questionnaire comprising 107 parameters of service inputs and processes of delivering care, with responses assessed according to their likely impact on service quality using a 3-point scale. K-means clustering was used to group these services according to their scored responses. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of high service quality.Results: The questionnaire was completed by 95.8% (322) of the managers of the sites surveyed. Most sites scored about 50% of the benchmark expectation. K-means clustering analysis identified four quality levels within which services could be grouped: 76 services (24%) were classed as level 1 (best), 53 (16%) as level 2 (medium), 113 (35%) as level 3 (poor), and 80 (25%) as level 4 (very poor). Parameters of service delivery processes were more important than those relating to service inputs for determining the quality classification. Predictors of quality services included larger care sites, specialization for HIV/AIDS, and location within large municipalities.Conclusion: The survey demonstrated highly variable levels of HIV/AIDS service quality across the sites. Many sites were found to have deficiencies in the processes of service delivery processes that could benefit from quality improvement initiatives. These findings could have implications for how HIV/AIDS services are planned in Brazil to achieve quality standards, such as for where service sites should be located, their size and staffing requirements. A set of service delivery indicators has been identified that could be used for routine monitoring of HIV/AIDS service delivery for HIV/AIDS in Brazil (and potentially in other similar settings).

Some predictors of cardiovascular mortality among the elderly population of Botucatu (SP)

OBJECTIVE: To detect factors associated with cardiovascular mortality in the elderly of Botucatu. METHODS: We evaluated 29 variables of interest in a cohort of patients aged ³60 using data from a survey conducted between 1983/84. The elderly cohort was analyzed in 1992 to detect the occurrence of cardiovascular deaths. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method, the log-rank test, and Cox regression analysis. Three models were adapted for each group of variables, and a final model was chosen from those variables selected from each group. RESULTS: We identified predictor for cardiovascular death according to age for elderly males not supporting the family, not possessing a vehicle, and previous cardiovascular disease. In elderly females, the predictor variables were previous cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSION: Socioeconomic indicators (family heading and vehicle ownerrship) may be added to well stabilished medical factors (diabete mellitus and hypertension to select target groups for programs intended to reduce deaths due to cardiovascular diseases in elderly people.

CYP1A2*1C, CYP2E1*5B, and GSTM1 polymorphisms are predictors of risk and poor outcome in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma patients

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Febrifugine derivative antimalarial activity: quantum mechanical predictors

O desenvolvimento de linhagens resistentes de Plasmodium falciparum tem encorajado a busca por novas drogas antimalariais. A febrifugina é uma substância natural com alta atividade contra o P. falciparum que apresenta propriedade emética e toxicidade para o fígado tal que não permitem o seu uso clínico. A busca por análogos que possam ter uma performance clínica melhor é um tema de pesquisa atual. Nosso objetivo é investigar a estrutura eletrônica teórica de uma família de derivados da febrifugina empregando cálculos semi-empíricos de orbitais moleculares, procurando por índices eletrônicos que possam ajudar a modelar novos derivados mais eficientes. Os resultados teóricos mostram que para as moléculas mais seletivas existe um agrupamento dos valores de determinados índices em intervalos bem definidos. O modelo proposto para se obter alta seletividade foi testado com sucesso.

ARE CORPORAL ALLOMETRIC MEASUREMENTS GOOD PREDICTORS of PALATABILITY IN NEOTROPICAL BUTTERFLIES (LEPIDOPTERA)?

Since palatable butterflies are more dependent on evasive flight to escape from predators, they should be more restricted in their flight-related morphology than unpalatable ones. We compared: the ratios between the (1) length of head plus thorax and the length of abdomen (A/B), (2) length of the tip of the head to wing base and the length of the wing base to end of the abdomen (C/D), (3) the variances of A/B and C/D, (4) the proportion between the thoracic and the body weight, and (5) the flight speed between palatable and unpalatable butterflies. A/B and thoracic/body weight were higher for palatable species, indicating higher body symmetry and muscular mass. However, flight speed did not differ. Unexpectedly, the variance of A/B was higher for palatable species while that of C/D did not differ. Therefore, corporal allometric measurements of Neotropical butterflies are good predictors of palatability, though not of flight speed.

Predictors of incorrectness in antimicrobial prescription in the Bauru State Hospital (Bauru city, São Paulo State, Brazil)

The inappropriate use of antimicrobials in hospitals presents a negative impact on patient outcome and is associated with the emergence and spread of multidrug-resistant microorganisms. Antimicrobial stewardship programs (ASPs) have been instituted in order to improve the quality of prescriptions in hospitals. In this setting, the identification of patterns of inappropriate antimicrobial prescription is a valuable tool that allows ASPs to identify priorities for directing educative/restrictive policies. With this purpose, a study was conducted in the Bauru State Hospital, a teaching hospital with 285 beds affiliated to the Botucatu Medical School, São Paulo State University. The hospital maintains an active ASP since it was opened, in 2002. We selected 25% of the requests for parenteral antimicrobials (RPAs) from 2005 for analysis. Prescriptions for prophylactic purposes were excluded. All other RPAs were classified according to a modified Kunin and Jones categories. Univariate and multivariable analyses were performed to identify predictors of general inappropriateness and of specific prescription errors. Prescriptions classified as "appropriate'' or "probably appropriate" were selected as controls in all stages of the study. Among 963 RPAs included in our study, 34.6% were inappropriate. General predictors of inappropriateness were: prescription on weekends/holidays (OR = 1.67, 95% CI = 1.20-2.28, p = 0.002), patient from intensive care unit (OR = 1.57, 95% CI = 1.11-2.23, p = 0.01), peritoneal (OR = 2.15, 95% CI = 1.27-3.65, p = 0.004) or urinary tract infection (OR = 1.89, 95% CI = 1.25-2.87, p = 0.002), combined therapy with two or more antimicrobials (OR = 1.72, 95% CI = 1.15-2.57, p = 0.008) and prescriptions including penicillin (OR = 2.12, 95% CI = 1.39-3.25, p = 0.001) or first-generation cephalosporins (OR = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.01-3.00, p = 0.048). Previous consultation with an infectious diseases (ID) specialist had a protective effect against inappropriate prescription (OR = 0.34, 95% CI = 0.24-0.50, p < 0.001). Factors independently associated with specific prescription errors varied. However, consultation with an ID specialist was protective against both unnecessary antimicrobial use (OR = 0.04, 95% CI = 0.01-0.26, p = 0.001) and requests for agents with insufficient spectrum (OR = 0.14, 95% CI = 0.03-0.30, p = 0.01). In conclusion, the analysis of factors predictive of inappropriateness in antimicrobial prescription allowed us to identify issues requiring intervention. Also, it provided a positive feedback of the ASP efficacy, demonstrating the importance of previous consultation with an ID specialist to assure the quality of antimicrobial prescriptions.

BODE Index and GOLD Staging as Predictors of 1-Year Exacerbation Risk in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Gender differences in predictors of health status in patients with COPD

Objective: To evaluate the health status (HS) of COPD patients and to identify the main predictors of HS in these patients according to gender. Methods: The study included 90 COPD patients (60 males and 30 females; mean age = 64 +/- 9 years) with a wide range of airway obstruction disorders (mean FEV(1) = 56 +/- 19% of predicted). The men were individually matched to the women by % of predicted FEV(1) (ratio: 2:1). The patients were assessed regarding body composition; six-minute walk distance; perception of dyspnea using the Modified Medical Research Council Dyspnea Scale; Saint George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ); Charlson comorbidity index; and the multidimensional Body mass index, airway Obstruction, Dyspnea, and Exercise capacity (BODE) index. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed to identify the predictors of HS by gender. Results: Impairment of HS was greater among the women than among the men for SGRQ total score and for all SGRQ domains (total: 51 +/- 18% vs. 38 19%; p = 0.002; symptoms: 61 +/- 22% vs. 42 +/- 21%; p < 0.001; activity: 62 +/- 18% vs. 49 +/- 21%; p = 0.004; and impact: 41 +/- 19% vs. 27 +/- 18%; p = 0.001). The multiple linear regression showed that age and perception of dyspnea correlated with SGRQ total score for both genders (males, r(2) = 0.42; females, r(2) = 0.70; p < 0.05). Conclusions: Our results showed an association between gender and HS in COPD patients. Age and dyspnea are determinants of HS in both genders.

Climatic variables and altitude as predictors of anuran species richness and number of reproductive modes in Brazil

Because anuran species are highly dependent on environmental variables, we hypothesized that anuran species richness and the number of reproductive modes from different Brazilian localities vary according to climatic and altitudinal variables. Published data were compiled from 36 Brazilian localities and climatic and altitudinal data were extracted from an available database. A partial redundancy analysis (pRDA) showed that 23.5% of the data set's variation was explained by climatic and altitudinal data, while the remaining 76.5% remained unexplained. This analysis suggests that other factors not analysed herein may also be important for predicting anuran species richness and the number of reproductive modes in Brazil. Altitude and total annual rainfall were positively correlated with anuran species richness and the number of reproductive modes, and total annual rainfall was strongly associated with these two biotic variables in the triplot of pRDA. The positive association of total annual rainfall and the negative association of the concentration of annual rainfall were already expected based on physiological and reproductive requirements of anurans. On the other hand, temperature was not associated with richness or the number of reproductive modes. Copyright © 2010 Cambridge University Press.

Echocardiographic predictors of ventricular remodeling after acute myocardial infarction in rats

Background: The prediction of the ventricular remodeling process after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) may have important clinical implications. Objetive: To analyze echocardiographic variables predictors of remodeling in the infarction model in rats. Methods: The animals underwent echocardiography in two moments, five days and three months after infarction (AMI group) or sham surgery (control group). Linear regression was used to identify the echocardiographic variables on the fifth day after the infarction, which were predictive of remodeling after three months of coronary occlusion. We considered as a criterion of remodeling in this study, the values of left ventricular diastolic diameter (LVDD) after three months of infarction. Results: The infarction induced increase in the left chambers, associated with changes in systolic and diastolic functions. The variables body weight, left ventricular wall stress index (LVWSI), systolic area (SA), diastolic area (DA), LVDD, left ventricular systolic diameter (LVSD), fractional area change (FAC), ejection fraction (EF), fractional shortening (%Short), posterior wall shortening velocity (PWSV) and infarct size assessed five days after infarction were predictors of LVDD after three months. At the multivariate regression analysis, we included the size of infarction, the LVWSI and PWSV. The LVWSI (coefficient: 4.402, standard error: 2.221, p = 0.05), but not the size of infarction and PWSV, was a predictor of remodeling after three months of infarction. Conclusion: LVPSI was an independent predictor of remodeling three months after the myocardial infarction and could be included in the clinical stratification after the coronary occlusion.

Serum Metalloproteinases 2 and 9 as Predictors of Gait Status, Pressure Ulcer and Mortality after Hip Fracture

Introduction: The aim of this study is to evaluate the serum activity of metalloproteinases (MMPs) -2 and -9 as predictors of pressure ulcer (PU), gait status and mortality 6 months after hip fracture. Methods: Eighty-seven patients over the age of 65 admitted to the orthopedic unit from January to December 2010 with hip fracture were prospectively evaluated. Upon admission, patient demographic information, including age, gender and concomitant diseases, was recorded. Blood samples were taken for analysis of MMP -2 and -9 activity by gel zymography and for biochemical examination within the first 72 hours of the patient's admission, after clinical stabilization. The fracture pattern (neck, trochanteric or subtrochanteric), time from admission to surgery, surgery duration and length of hospital stay were also recorded. Results: Two patients were excluded due to the presence of pathological fractures (related to cancer), and three patients were excluded due to the presence of PU before admission. Eighty-two patients, with a mean age of 80.4 ± 7.3 years, were included in the analysis. Among these patients, 75.6% were female, 59.8% had PU, and 13.4% died 6 months after hip fracture. All patients underwent hip fracture repair. In a univariate analysis, there were no differences in serum MMP activity between hip fracture patients with or without PU. In addition, the multiple logistic regression analysis models, which were adjusted by age, gender, length of hospital stay and C-reactive protein, showed that the pro-MMP-9 complexed with neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin form (130 kDa) was associated with gait status recovery 6 months after hip fracture. Conclusions: In conclusion, serum pro-MMP-9 is a predictor of gait status recovery 6 months after hip fracture. © 2013 Gumieiro et al.

Mild cognitive impairment (part 1): Clinical characteristics and predictors of dementia

Objective: To critically review and evaluate existing knowledge on the conceptual limits and clinical usefulness of the diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and the neuropsychological assessment and short- and long-term prognosis thereof. Methods: We conducted a systematic search of the PubMed and Web of Science electronic databases, limited to articles published in English between 1999 and 2012. Based on the search terms mild cognitive impairment or MCI and epidemiology or diagnosis, we retrieved 1,698 articles, of which 248 were critically eligible (cross-sectional and longitudinal studies); the abstracts of the remaining 1,450 articles were also reviewed. Results: A critical review on the MCI construct is provided, including conceptual and diagnostic aspects; epidemiological relevance; clinical assessment; prognosis; and outcome. The distinct definitions of cognitive impairment, MCI included, yield clinically heterogeneous groups of individuals. Those who will eventually progress to dementia may present with symptoms consistent with the definition of MCI; conversely, individuals with MCI may remain stable or return to normal cognitive function. Conclusion: On clinical grounds, the cross-sectional diagnosis of MCI has limited prognostic relevance. The characterization of persistent and/or progressive cognitive deficits over time is a better approach for identification of cases at the pre-dementia stages, particularly if these cognitive abnormalities are consistent with the natural history of incipient Alzheimer's disease. © 2013 Associação Brasileira de Psiquiatria.

Disentangling the influences of habitat structure and limnological predictors on stream fish communities of a coastal basin, southeastern Brazil

Em ambientes de riacho, fatores relacionados à estrutura dos habitats e limnologia interagem regulando os padrões de transferência de energia e matéria, afetando a composição da comunidade de peixes. Em bacias costeiras do sudeste do Brasil as características limnológicas e estrutura dos habitats diferem entre riachos de águas claras e pretas. Os primeiros são compostos por uma variedade de tipos de substrato, possuem velocidades de corrente mais elevadas e baixa condutividade, enquanto os últimos apresentam substrato arenoso, baixas velocidades de corrente e águas escuras e ácidas. Neste trabalho analisamos a importância relativa da estrutura dos habitats e das variáveis limnológicas como preditores dos padrões de composição em comunidades de peixes de riachos. Oito riachos de primeira a terceira ordem foram amostrados na planície costeira da bacia do rio Itanhaém. Capturamos 34 espécies e verificamos que a composição das comunidades foi influenciada por fatores estruturais e limnológicos, sendo os primeiros mais importantes. Uma fração de variação que não pode ser totalmente decomposta, deve-se à influência conjunta da limnologia e estrutura dos habitats. Algumas das espécies restritas aos riachos de águas pretas provavelmente apresentam adaptações fisiológicas e comportamentais para lidar com os baixos níveis de pH. Quando foram examinados somente os riachos de águas claras, toda a variação explicada na composição da comunidade de peixes foi atribuída aos fatores estruturais, devido a preferências específicas por diferentes características de hábitats.

NOVEL PREDICTORS OF PERITONITIS-RELATED OUTCOMES IN THE BRAZPD COHORT

Introduction: Peritonitis remains the main cause of peritoneal dialysis (PD) technique failure worldwide, despite significant reductions in infection rates observed over the past decades. Several studies have described risk factors for peritonitis, technique failure and mortality. However, there are scarce data regarding predictors of complications during and after a peritonitis episode. The aim of our study was to analyze predictors of peritonitis-related outcome in the Brazilian Peritoneal Dialysis study (BRAZPD) cohort.Methods: All adult incident patients recruited in the BRAZPD Study between December 2004 and October 2007, who remained at least 90 days on PD and presented their first peritonitis episode (n = 474 patients) were included in the study. The endpoints analyzed were non-resolution, death due to a peritonitis episode and long-term technique survival after a peritonitis episode.Results: In the multivariable regression, non-resolution was independently associated with older age (odds ratio (OR) 1.02; p < 0.01), collagenosis as the primary renal disease (OR 4.6; p < 0.05) and Pseudomonas spp as etiological agent (OR 2.9; p < 0.05). Patients who were transferred from APD to CAPD during peritonitis therapy presented a higher risk of non-response (OR 2.5; p < 0.05). The only factor associated with death during a peritonitis episode was older age (OR 1.04; p < 0.05). Exposure to vancomycin and male gender were the independent predictors of long-term technique failure (OR 2.2; p < 0.01).Conclusion: Apart from confirming previous observations of the negative impact of older age and Pseudomonas spp peritonitis on outcomes, we observed that collagenosis may negatively impact response to treatment and exposure to vancomycin may possibly reduce long-term technique survival. It is important to emphasize that the association of vancomycin with technique failure does not prove causality. These findings shed light on new factors predicting outcome when peritonitis is diagnosed.