975 resultados para Predictive-value
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Global left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction is the strongest predictor of morbidity and mortality in Chagas disease. Echocardiography is considered the gold standard for the detection of LV dysfunction, but not always available in endemic areas where chagasic cardiomyopathy is most common. Brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) is a neurohormone that has been recently described as a simple and inexpensive diagnostic and prognostic marker for patients with congestive heart failure. Chagasic patients (n = 63) and non-infected healthy individuals (n = 18) were recruited prospectively and underwent complete clinical examination, echocardiography and 24-h Holter monitoring. BNP was measured from thawed plasma samples using the Triage BNP test. We observed high levels of BNP in association with depression of LV ejection fraction, with increase of LV end-diastolic diameter and with LV premature complexes. An elevated concentration of BNP, defined as a concentration of 60 pg/ml or more, had a sensitivity of 91.7%, specificity of 82.8%, positive predictive value of 52.4%, and negative predictive value of 98% for detecting LV dysfunction (LV ejection fraction < 40%).BNP measurement using a simple, relatively inexpensive and rapid test has a promising role in identifying LV dysfunction associated with chagasic cardiomyopathy. Equally important, patients with Trypanosoma cruzi infection who have low levels of BNP level in plasma have a very low likelihood of severe cardiac involvement, and echocardiography is probably not necessary.
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Entamoeba histolytica actually comprises two genetically distinct but morphologically indistinguishable species. E. histolytica can cause invasive intestinal and extra intestinal disease, while E. dispar cannot. Identification and differentiation of E. dispar and E. histolytica in stool sample by microscopy is imprecise. Several weeks of culture and isoenzyme analysis are required to differentiate E. histolytica from E. dispar. In this study, we have used an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for detection of E. histolytica/E.dispar and compared it with microscopy. Eighty-eight samples were evaluated, trichrome staining was positive in 20.4% (18) and ELISA was positive in 29.5% (26). Both tests were positive in 14 (15.9%) samples, 4 (4.5%) only with direct microscopy, and 12 (13.6%) only with ELISA. Both tests were negative in 58 (65.9%) samples. Microscopy has low sensitivity and high specificity, low negative predictive value and high positive predictive value in comparison with ELISA. E. histolytica/E. dispar antigen detection ELISA tests are inexpensive compared to the specific tests, yield objective results and do not require experienced microscopists and can therefore be recommended for screening of stools worldwide and the results can be taken for treatment that are fitting with its clinic.
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BACKGROUND: Pharmacological interruption of the renin-angiotensin system focuses on optimization of blockade. As a measure of intrarenal renin activity, we have examined renal plasma flow (RPF) responses in a standardized protocol. Compared with responses with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibition (rise in RPF approximately 95 mL x min(-1) x 1.73 m(-2)), greater renal vasodilation with angiotensin receptor blockers (approximately 145 mL x min(-1) x 1.73 m(-2)) suggested more effective blockade. We predicted that blockade with the direct oral renin inhibitor aliskiren would produce renal vascular responses exceeding those induced by angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers. METHODS AND RESULTS: Twenty healthy normotensive subjects were studied on a low-sodium (10 mmol/d) diet, receiving separate escalating doses of aliskiren. Six additional subjects received captopril 25 mg as a low-sodium comparison and also received aliskiren on a high-sodium (200 mmol/d) diet. RPF was measured by clearance of para-aminohippurate. Aliskiren induced a remarkable dose-related renal vasodilation in low-sodium balance. The RPF response was maximal at the 600-mg dose (197+/-27 mL x min(-1) x 1.73 m(-2)) and exceeded responses to captopril (92+/-20 mL x min(-1) x 1.73 m(-2); P<0.01). Furthermore, significant residual vasodilation was observed 48 hours after each dose (P<0.01). The RPF response on a high-sodium diet was also higher than expected (47+/-17 mL x min(-1) x 1.73 m(-2)). Plasma renin activity and angiotensin levels were reduced in a dose-related manner. As another functional index of the effect of aliskiren, we found significant natriuresis on both diets. CONCLUSIONS: Renal vasodilation in healthy people with the potent renin inhibitor aliskiren exceeded responses seen previously with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers. The effects were longer lasting and were associated with significant natriuresis. These results indicate that aliskiren may provide more complete and thus more effective blockade of the renin-angiotensin system.
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The clinical value of an in-house cytomegalovirus nested polymerase chain reaction (CMV-PCR) and a commercial molecular assay hybrid capture CMV DNA assay (HCA) was evaluated in monitoring a group of renal transplant patients for six months follow up. In this study, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of nested CMV DNA PCR assay and HCA at the beginning of the study were 70, 42.9, 46.7, 66.7, and 60, 78.6, 66.7, and 73.3% respectively. After six months, they were 80, 66.7, 80, 66.7 for CMV PCR and 73.3, 88.9, 91.7, 66.7% for HCA respectively. These results indicate that in monitoring and predicting CMV infections in renal transplant recipients, not only qualitative but also quantitative assays must be used together in order to decide the preemptive strategies.
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BACKGROUND: We sought to improve upon previously published statistical modeling strategies for binary classification of dyslipidemia for general population screening purposes based on the waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index anthropometric measurements. METHODS: Study subjects were participants in WHO-MONICA population-based surveys conducted in two Swiss regions. Outcome variables were based on the total serum cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. The other potential predictor variables were gender, age, current cigarette smoking, and hypertension. The models investigated were: (i) linear regression; (ii) logistic classification; (iii) regression trees; (iv) classification trees (iii and iv are collectively known as "CART"). Binary classification performance of the region-specific models was externally validated by classifying the subjects from the other region. RESULTS: Waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index remained modest predictors of dyslipidemia. Correct classification rates for all models were 60-80%, with marked gender differences. Gender-specific models provided only small gains in classification. The external validations provided assurance about the stability of the models. CONCLUSIONS: There were no striking differences between either the algebraic (i, ii) vs. non-algebraic (iii, iv), or the regression (i, iii) vs. classification (ii, iv) modeling approaches. Anticipated advantages of the CART vs. simple additive linear and logistic models were less than expected in this particular application with a relatively small set of predictor variables. CART models may be more useful when considering main effects and interactions between larger sets of predictor variables.
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Injection drug use before and after liver transplantation: a retrospective multicenter analysis on incidence and outcome. Clin Transplant 2009 DOI: 10.1111/j.1399-0012.2009.01121.x. Background and aims: Injecting drug use (IDU) before and after liver transplantation (LT) is poorly described. The aim of this study was to quantify relapse and survival in this population and to describe the causes of mortality after LT. Methods: Past injection drug users were identified from the LT listing protocols from four centers in Switzerland and France. Data on survival and relapse were collected and used for uni- and multivariate analysis. Results: Between 1988 and 2006, we identified 59 patients with a past history of IDU. The mean age at transplantation was 42.4 yr and the majority of patients were men (84.7%). The indication for LT was for the vast majority viral cirrhosis accounting for 91.5% of cases, while alcoholic cirrhosis was 5.1%. There were 16.9% of patients who had a substitution therapy before and 6.8% who continued after LT. Two patients (3.4%) relapsed into IDU after LT and died at 18 and 41 months. The mean follow-up was 51 months. Overall survival was 84%, 66%, and 61% at 1, 5, and 10 yr after transplantation. Conclusions: Documented IDU was rare in liver transplanted patients. Past IDU was not associated with poorer survival after LT, and relapse after LT occurred in 3.4%.
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BACKGROUND: The AO comprehensive pediatric longbone fracture classification system describes the localization and morphology of fractures, and considers severity in 3 categories: (1) simple, (2) wedge, and (3) complex. We evaluated the reliability and accuracy of surgeons in using this rating system. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In a first validation phase, 5 experienced pediatric (orthopedic) surgeons reviewed radiographs of 267 prospectively collected pediatric fractures (agreement study A). In a second study (B), 70 surgeons of various levels of experience in 15 clinics classified 275 fractures via internet. Simple fractures comprised about 90%, 99% and 100% of diaphyseal (D), metaphyseal (M), and epiphyseal (E) fractures, respectively. RESULTS: Kappa coefficients for severity coding in D fractures were 0.82 and 0.51 in studies A and B, respectively. The median accuracy of surgeons in classifying simple fractures was above 97% in both studies but was lower, 85% (46-100), for wedge or complex D fractures. INTERPRETATION: While reliability and accuracy estimates were satisfactory as a whole, the ratings of some individual surgeons were inadequate. Our findings suggest that the classification of fracture severity in children should be done in only two categories that distinguish between simple and wedge/complex fractures.
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BACKGROUND: Both systolic and diastolic dysfunction have been observed in patients with anterolateral myocardial infarction. Diastolic dysfunction is related to disturbances in relaxation and diastolic filling. OBJECTIVE: To analyse cardiac rotation, regional shortening and diastolic relaxation in patients with anterolateral infarction. METHODS: Cardiac rotation and relaxation in controls and patients with chronic anterolateral infarction were assessed by myocardial tagging. Myocardial tagging is based on magnetic resonance imaging and allows us to label specific myocardial regions for imaging cardiac motion (rotation, translation and radial displacement). A rectangular grid was placed on the myocardium (basal, equatorial and apical short-axis plane) of each of 18 patients with chronic anterolateral infarction and 13 controls. Cardiac rotation, change in area and shortening of circumference were determined in each case. RESULTS: The left ventricle in controls performs a systolic wringing motion with a clockwise rotation at the base and a counterclockwise rotation at the apex when viewed from the apex. During relaxation a rotational motion in the opposite direction (namely untwisting) can be observed. In patients with anterolateral infarction, there is less systolic rotation at the apex and diastolic untwisting is delayed and prolonged in comparison with controls. In the presence of a left ventricular aneurysm (n = 4) apical rotation is completely lost. There is less shortening of circumference in infarcted and remote regions. CONCLUSIONS: The wringing motion of the myocardium might be an important mechanism involved in maintaining normal cardiac function with minimal expenditure of energy. This mechanism no longer operates in patients with left ventricular aneurysms and operates significantly less than normal in those with anterolateral hypokinaesia. Diastolic untwisting is significantly delayed and prolonged in patients with anterolateral infarction, which could explain the occurrence of diastolic dysfunction in these patients.
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Tamoxifen (tam) is a widely used endocrine therapy in the treatment of early and advanced stage breast cancer in women and men. It is a pro-drug having weak affinity with the estrogen receptor and needs to be converted to its main metabolite, endoxifen (endox), to have full anticancer activity. Cytochrome 2D6 (CYP2D6) plays a major role in the metabolism of tamoxifen to endoxifen. It is genetically highly polymorphic and its activity influences profoundly the synthesis of endoxifen and potentially the efficacy of tamoxifen treatment. Genotyping is currently the most widely used approach in studies and also in clinical practice to categorize patients as poor- (PM), intermediate- (IM), extensive- (EM) and ultra rapid-metabolizers (UM). Some clinicians already use genotyping in order to tailor the endocrine therapy of their patients. Owing to the large inter-individual variations in concentrations of the active moitey due to genetic and non-genetic influences renders the predictive value of the test uncertain for an individual patient. A significant number of patients classified as EM or IM by genotyping have indeed relatively low endoxifen levels similar to PMs1. This suggests that genotyping is probably not the opti ma l meth o d f or predi cti ng end oxif en l evels.
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The discovery of a targeted therapeutic compound along with its companion predictive biomarker is a major goal of clinical development for a personalized anticancer therapy to date. Here we present evidence of the predictive value of TLR3 expression by tumor cells for the efficacy of Poly (A:U) dsRNA in 194 breast cancer patients enrolled in a randomized clinical trial. Adjuvant treatment with double-stranded RNA (dsRNA) was associated with a significant decrease in the risk of metastatic relapse in TLR3 positive but not in TLR3-negative breast cancers. Moreover, we show the functional relevance of TLR3 expression by human tumor cells for the antitumor effects mediated by dsRNA in several preclinical mouse models carried out in immunocompromised animals. These 2 independent lines of evidence relied upon the generation of a novel tool, an anti-TLR3 antibody (40F9.6) validated for routine detection of TLR3 expression on paraffin-embedded tissues. Altogether, these data suggest that dsRNA mediates its therapeutic effect through TLR3 expressed on tumor cells, and could therefore represent an effective targeted treatment in patients with TLR3-positive cancers.
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Background: The prevalence of a low bone mineral density (T-score <-1 SD) in postmenopausal women with a fragility fracture may vary from 70% to less than 50%. In one study (Siris ES. Arch Intern Med. 2004;164:1108-12), the prevalence of osteoporosis was very low at 6.4%. The corresponding values in men are rarely reported. Methods: In a nationwide Swiss survey, all consecutive patients aged 50+ presenting with one or more fractures to the emergency ward, were recruited by 8 participating hospitals (University Hospitals: Basel, Bern, and Lausanne; cantonal hospitals: Fribourg, Luzern, and St Gallen; regional hospitals: Estavayer and Riaz) between 2004 and 2006. Diagnostic workup was collected for descriptive analysis. Results: 3667 consecutive patients with a fragility fracture, 2797 women (73.8 ± 11.6 years) and 870 men (70.0 ± 12.1 years), were included. DXA measurement was performed in 1152 (44%) patients. The mean of the lowest T-score values was -2.34 SD in women and -2.16 SD in men. In the 908 women, the prevalence of osteoporosis and osteopenia according to the fracture type was: sacrum (100%, 0%), rib (100%, 0%), thoracic vertebral (78%, 22%), femur trochanter (67%, 26%), pelvis (66%, 32%), lumbar vertebral (63%, 28%), femoral neck (53%, 34%), femur shaft (50%, 50%), proximal humerus (50%, 34%), distal forearm (41%, 45%), tibia proximal (41%, 31%), malleolar lateral (28%, 46%), malleolar median (13%, 47%). The corresponding percentages in the 244 men were: distal forearm (70%, 19%), rib (63%, 11%), pelvis (60%, 20%), malleolar median (60%, 32%), femur trochanter (48%, 31%), thoracic vertebral (47%, 53%), lumbar vertebral (43%, 36%), proximal humerus (40%, 43%), femoral neck (28%, 55%), tibia proximal (26%, 36%), malleolar lateral (18%, 56%). Conclusion: The probability of underlying osteoporosis or osteopenia in men and women aged 50+ who experienced a fragility fracture was beyond 75% in fractures of the sacrum, pelvis, spine, femur, proximal humerus and distal forearm. The medial and lateral malleolar fractures had the lowest predictive value in women, not in men.
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Kaposiform hemangioendothelioma (KHE) and tufted angioma (TA) are rare tumors mainly occurring in early childhood. Our recent results showed that ectopic overexpression of human Prox1 gene, a lymphatic endothelial nuclear transcription factor, promoted an aggressive behavior in 2 murine models of KHE. This dramatic Prox1-induced phenotype prompted us to investigate immunohistochemical staining pattern of Prox1, podoplanin (D2-40), LYVE-1, and Prox1/CD34 as well as double immunofluorescent staining pattern of LYVE-1/CD31 in KHE and TA, compared with other pediatric vascular tumors. For this purpose, we examined 75 vascular lesions: KHE (n=18), TA (n=13), infantile hemangioma (n=13), pyogenic granuloma (n=18), and granulation tissue (n=13). Overall, KHE and TA shared an identical endothelial immunophenotype: the neoplastic spindle cells were Prox1, podoplanin, LYVE-1, CD31, and CD34, whereas endothelial cells within glomeruloid foci were Prox1, podoplanin, LYVE-1, CD31, and CD34. The lesional cells of all infantile hemangiomas and pyogenic granulomas were negative for Prox1 in the presence of positive internal control. These findings provide immunophenotypic evidence to support a preexisting notion that KHE and TA are closely related, if not identical. Overall, our results show, for the first time, that Prox1 is an immunohistochemical biomarker helpful in confirming the diagnosis of KHE/TA and in distinguishing it from infantile hemangioma and pyogenic granuloma.
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Late treatment of invasive candidiasis (IC) results in severe complications and high mortality. New tools are needed for early diagnosis. We conducted a retrospective study to assess the diagnostic utility of mannan antigenemia (Mn) and antimannan antibodies (anti-Mn) in neutropenic cancer patients at high risk for candidiasis. Twenty-eight patients with IC (based on European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer and Mycoses Study Group definitions) and 25 controls were studied. Mn and anti-Mn were positive (> or = 0.25 ng/mL and > or = 5 AU/mL, respectively) in 25/28 (89%) patients with candidiasis and in 4/25 (16%) controls: sensitivity, 89%; specificity, 84%; positive predictive value, 86%; negative predictive value, 88%. In patients with hepatosplenic lesions, assessing Mn/anti-Mn shortened the median time of diagnosis of candidiasis when compared with imaging (9 versus 25 days after fever onset as first sign of infection; P < 0.001). Candidiasis was diagnosed before neutrophil recovery in 78% and 11% of cases with Mn/anti-Mn and radiology, respectively (P < 0.001). Mn and anti-Mn may be useful for early noninvasive diagnosis of IC.
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To create an instrument to be used in an outpatient clinic to detect adolescents prone to risk-taking behaviours. Based on previous research, five identified variables (relationship with parents and teachers, liking going to school, average grades, and level of religiosity) were used to create a screening tool to detect at least one of ten risky behaviours (tobacco, alcohol, cannabis and other illegal drugs use; sexual intercourse and sexual risky behaviour; driving while intoxicated, riding with an intoxicated driver, not always using a seat belt, and not always using a helmet). The instrument was tested using the Barcelona Adolescent Health Survey 1993. A Receiver Operating Characteristics curve was used to find the best cut-off point between high and low risk score. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated to detect at least one risky behaviour and for each individual behaviour. In order to assess its predictive value, the analysis was repeated using the Barcelona Adolescent Health Survey 1999. In both cases, analyses were conducted for the whole sample and for younger and older adolescents. Adolescents with a high-risk score were more likely to take at least one risky behaviour both when the whole sample was analysed and by age groups. With very few exceptions, the Behaviour Evaluation for Risk-Taking Adolescents showed significant odds ratios for each individual variable. CONCLUSION: The Behaviour Evaluation for Risk-Taking Adolescents has shown its potential as an easy to use instrument to screen for risk-taking behaviours. Future research must aim towards assessing this instrument's predictive value in the clinical setting and it's application to other populations.
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In patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) precursor cell cultures (colony-forming unit cells, CFU-C) can provide an insight into the growth potential of malignant myeloid cells. In a retrospective single-center study of 73 untreated MDS patients we assessed whether CFU-C growth patterns were of prognostic value in addition to established criteria. Abnormalities were classified as qualitative (i.e. leukemic cluster growth) or quantitative (i.e. strongly reduced/absent growth). Thirty-nine patients (53%) showed leukemic growth, 26 patients (36%) had strongly reduced/absent colony growth, and 12 patients showed both. In a univariate analysis the presence of leukemic growth was associated with strongly reduced survival (at 10 years 4 vs. 34%, p = 0.004), and a high incidence of transformation to AML (76 vs. 32%, p = 0.01). Multivariate analysis identified leukemic growth as a strong and independent predictor of early death (relative risk 2.12, p = 0.03) and transformation to AML (relative risk 2.63, p = 0.04). Quantitative abnormalities had no significant impact on the disease course. CFU-C assays have a significant predictive value in addition to established prognostic factors in MDS. Leukemic growth identifies a subpopulation of MDS patients with poor prognosis.