TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE LOCAL ADVANTAGE? - Investment value of the analyst local advantage in the Finnish stock market in 2006–2014

An investor can either conduct independent analysis or rely on the analyses of others. Stock analysts provide markets with expectations regarding particular securities. However, analysts have different capabilities and resources, of which investors are seldom cognizant. The local advantage refers to the advantage stemming from cultural or geographical proximity to securities analyzed. The research has confirmed that local agents are generally more accurate or produce excess returns. This thesis tests the investment value of the local advantage regarding Finnish stocks via target price data. The empirical section investigates the local advantage from several aspects. It is discovered that local analysts were more focused on certain sectors generally located close to consumer markets. Market reactions to target price revisions were generally insignificant with the exception to local positive target prices. Both local and foreign target prices were overly optimistic and exhibited signs of herding. Neither group could be identified as a leader or follower of new information. Additionally, foreign price change expectations were more in line with the quantitative models and ideas such as beta or return mean reversion. The locals were more accurate than foreign analysts in 5 out of 9 sectors and vice versa in one. These sectors were somewhat in line with coverage decisions and buttressed the idea of local advantage stemming from proximity to markets, not to headquarters. The accuracy advantage was dependent on sample years and on the measure used. Local analysts ranked magnitudes of price changes more accurately in optimistic and foreign analysts in pessimistic target prices. Directional accuracy of both groups was under 50% and target prices held no linear predictive power. Investment value of target prices were tested by forming mean-variance efficient portfolios. Parallel to differing accuracies in the levels of expectations foreign portfolio performed better when short sales were allowed and local better when disallowed. Both local and non-local portfolios performed worse than a passive index fund, albeit not statistically significantly. This was in line with previously reported low overall accuracy and different accuracy profiles. Refraining from estimating individual stock returns altogether produced statistically significantly higher Sharpe ratios compared to local or foreign portfolios. The proposed method of testing the investment value of target prices of different groups suffered from some inconsistencies. Nevertheless, these results are of interest to investors seeking the advice of security analysts.

TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE LOCAL ADVANTAGE? - Investment value of the analyst local advantage in the Finnish stock market in 2006–2014

An investor can either conduct independent analysis or rely on the analyses of others. Stock analysts provide markets with expectations regarding particular securities. However, analysts have different capabilities and resources, of which investors are seldom cognizant. The local advantage refers to the advantage stemming from cultural or geographical proximity to securities analyzed. The research has confirmed that local agents are generally more accurate or produce excess returns. This thesis tests the investment value of the local advantage regarding Finnish stocks via target price data. The empirical section investigates the local advantage from several aspects. It is discovered that local analysts were more focused on certain sectors generally located close to consumer markets. Market reactions to target price revisions were generally insignificant with the exception to local positive target prices. Both local and foreign target prices were overly optimistic and exhibited signs of herding. Neither group could be identified as a leader or follower of new information. Additionally, foreign price change expectations were more in line with the quantitative models and ideas such as beta or return mean reversion. The locals were more accurate than foreign analysts in 5 out of 9 sectors and vice versa in one. These sectors were somewhat in line with coverage decisions and buttressed the idea of local advantage stemming from proximity to markets, not to headquarters. The accuracy advantage was dependent on sample years and on the measure used. Local analysts ranked magnitudes of price changes more accurately in optimistic and foreign analysts in pessimistic target prices. Directional accuracy of both groups was under 50% and target prices held no linear predictive power. Investment value of target prices were tested by forming mean-variance efficient portfolios. Parallel to differing accuracies in the levels of expectations foreign portfolio performed better when short sales were allowed and local better when disallowed. Both local and non-local portfolios performed worse than a passive index fund, albeit not statistically significantly. This was in line with previously reported low overall accuracy and different accuracy profiles. Refraining from estimating individual stock returns altogether produced statistically significantly higher Sharpe ratios compared to local or foreign portfolios. The proposed method of testing the investment value of target prices of different groups suffered from some inconsistencies. Nevertheless, these results are of interest to investors seeking the advice of security analysts.

Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of linear and nonlinear indices of heart rate variability in stable angina patients

Background: Decreased heart rate variability (HRV) is related to higher morbidity and mortality. In this study we evaluated the linear and nonlinear indices of the HRV in stable angina patients submitted to coronary angiography. Methods. We studied 77 unselected patients for elective coronary angiography, which were divided into two groups: coronary artery disease (CAD) and non-CAD groups. For analysis of HRV indices, HRV was recorded beat by beat with the volunteers in the supine position for 40 minutes. We analyzed the linear indices in the time (SDNN [standard deviation of normal to normal], NN50 [total number of adjacent RR intervals with a difference of duration greater than 50ms] and RMSSD [root-mean square of differences]) and frequency domains ultra-low frequency (ULF) ≤ 0,003 Hz, very low frequency (VLF) 0,003 - 0,04 Hz, low frequency (LF) (0.04-0.15 Hz), and high frequency (HF) (0.15-0.40 Hz) as well as the ratio between LF and HF components (LF/HF). In relation to the nonlinear indices we evaluated SD1, SD2, SD1/SD2, approximate entropy (-ApEn), α1, α2, Lyapunov Exponent, Hurst Exponent, autocorrelation and dimension correlation. The definition of the cutoff point of the variables for predictive tests was obtained by the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC). The area under the ROC curve was calculated by the extended trapezoidal rule, assuming as relevant areas under the curve ≥ 0.650. Results: Coronary arterial disease patients presented reduced values of SDNN, RMSSD, NN50, HF, SD1, SD2 and -ApEn. HF ≤ 66 ms§ssup§2§esup§, RMSSD ≤ 23.9 ms, ApEn ≤-0.296 and NN50 ≤ 16 presented the best discriminatory power for the presence of significant coronary obstruction. Conclusion: We suggest the use of Heart Rate Variability Analysis in linear and nonlinear domains, for prognostic purposes in patients with stable angina pectoris, in view of their overall impairment. © 2012 Pivatelli et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

The diagnostic value of a treadmill test in predicting lumbar spinal stenosis

Lumbar spinal stenosis is a frequent indication for spinal surgery. The predictive quality of treadmill testing and MRI for diagnostic verification is not yet clearly defined. Aim of the current study was to assess correlations between treadmill testing and MRI findings in the lumbar spine. Twenty-five patients with lumbar spinal stenosis were prospectively examined. Treadmill tests were performed and the area of the dural sac and neuroforamina was examined with MRI for the narrowest spinal segment. VAS and ODI were used for clinical assessment. The median age of the patients was 67 years. In the narrowest spinal segment the median area of the dural sac was 91 mm(2). The median ODI was 66 per cent. The median walking distance in the treadmill test was 70 m. The distance reached in the treadmill test correlated with the area of the dural sac (Spearman's rho = 0.53) and ODI (rho = -0.51), but not with the area of the neuroforamina and VAS. The distance reached in the treadmill test predicts the grade of stenosis in MRI but has a limited diagnostic importance for the level of clinical symptoms in lumbar spinal stenosis.

Evaluation of the diagnostic value of the ELISA tests developed by using EgHF, Em2 and EmII/3-10 antigens in the serological diagnosis of alveolar echinococcosis

Alveolar echinococcosis (AE), caused by larva stage of Echinococcus multilocularis, is one of the lethal parasitic diseases of man and a major public health problem in many countries in the northern hemisphere. When the living conditions and habits in Turkey were considered in terms of relation with the life cycle of the parasite, it was suggested that AE has been much more common than reported mainly from the Eastern Anatolia region of Turkey. Since in vitro serologic diagnosis tests with high specificity for AE have not been used in our country, most of the cases with liver lesions were misdiagnosed by radiological investigations as malignancies. The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic value of the in-house ELISA methods developed by using three different antigens (EgHF, Em2, EmII/3-10) in the serological diagnosis of AE. The study samples included a total of 100 sera provided by Bern University Parasitology Institute where samples were obtained from patients with helminthiasis and all were confirmed by clinical, parasitological and/or histopathological means. Ten samples from each of the cases infected by E.multilocularis, E.granulosus, Taenia solium, Wuchereria bancrofti, Strongyloides stercolaris, Ascaris lumbricoides, Toxocara canis, Trichinella spiralis, Fasciola hepatica and Schistosoma haematobium were studied. In the study, EgHF (E.granulosus hydatid fluid) antigens were prepared in our laboratory from the liver cyst fluids of sheeps with cystic echinococcosis, however Em2 (E.multilocularis metacestode-purified laminated layer) and EmII/3-10 (E.multilocularis recombinant protoscolex tegument) antigens were provided by Bern University Parasitology Institute. Flat bottom ELISA plates were covered with EgHF, Em2 and EmII/3-10 antigens in the concentrations of 2.5 µg, 1 µg and 0.18 µg per well, respectively, and all sera were tested by EgHF-ELISA, Em2-ELISA and EmII/3-10-ELISA methods. For each tests, the samples which were reactive above the cut-off value (mean OD of negative controls+2 SD) were accepted as positive. The sensitivity of the ELISA tests performed with EgHF, Em2 and Em2II/3-10 antigens were estimated as 100%, 90% and 90%, respectively, whereas the specificity were 63%, 91% and 91%, respectively. When Em2-ELISA and EmII/3-10-ELISA tests were evaluated together, the specificity increased to 96%. Our data indicated that the highest sensitivity (100% with EgHF-ELISA) and specificity (96% with Em2-ELISA + EmII/3-10-ELISA) for the serodiagnosis of AE can be achieved by the combined use of the ELISA tests with three different antigens. It was concluded that the early and accurate diagnosis of AE in our country which is endemic for that disease, could be supported by the use of highly specific serological tests such as Em2-ELISA ve EmII/3-10-ELISA contributing radiological data.

The predictive ability of clinical tests for contact lens induced dry eye

Approximately half of current contact lens wearers suffer from dryness and discomfort, particularly towards the end of the day. Contact lens practitioners have a number of dry eye tests available to help them to predict which of their patients may be at risk of contact lens drop out and advise them accordingly. This thesis set out to rationalize them to see if any are of more diagnostic significance than others. This doctorate has found: (1) The Keratograph, a device which permits an automated, examiner independent technique for measuring non invasive tear break up time (NITBUT) measured NITBUT consistently shorter than measurements recorded with the Tearscope. When measuring central corneal curvature the spherical equivalent power of the cornea was measured as being significantly flatter than with a validated automated keratometer. (2) Non-invasive and invasive tear break-up times significantly correlated to each other, but not the other tear metrics. Symptomology, assessed using the OSDI questionnaire, correlated more with those tests indicating possible damage to the ocular surface (including LWE, LIPCOF and conjunctival staining) than with tests of either tear volume or stability. Cluster analysis showed some statistically significant groups of patients with different sign and symptom profiles. The largest cluster demonstrated poor tear quality with both non-invasive and invasive tests, low tear volume and more symptoms. (3) Care should be taken in fitting patients new to contact lenses if they have a NITBUT less than 10s or an OSDI comfort rating greater than 4.2 as they are more likely to drop-out within the first 6 months. Cluster analysis was not found to be beneficial in predicting which patients will succeed with lenses and which will not. A combination of the OSDI questionnaire and a NITBUT measurement was most useful both in diagnosing dry eye and in predicting contact lens drop out.

Analysis of extracellular vesicles from patients with advanced pancreatic cancer identifies miRNAs with predictive value for treatment with gemcitabine + nab-paclitaxel

Pancreatic cancer (PC) is the seventh leading cause of cancer death. Despite recent therapy advancements, 5-year survival is 11%. Resistance to therapy is common, and no predictive factors, except for BRCA1/2 and PALB2 mutations, can drive treatment selection. Based on the easy isolation of extracellular vesicles (EVs) from blood and the role of EV-borne miRNAs in chemoresistance, we analyzed EVs and their miRNA content in order to identify predictive factors. First, we analyzed samples from 28 PC patients and 7 healthy subjects, in order to establish methods for isolation and analysis of EVs and their miRNA content. We observed a significantly different expression of 28 miRNAs, including oncogenic or tumor suppressor miRNAs, showing the ability of our approach to detect candidate biomarkers. Then, we analyzed samples of 21 advanced PC patients, collected before first-line treatment with gemcitabine + nab-paclitaxel, and compared findings in responders and non-responders. EVs have been analyzed with Nanoparticle tracking analysis, flow cytometry and RNA-Seq; then, laboratory results have been matched with clinical data. Nanoparticle tracking analysis did not show any significant difference. Flow cytometry showed a lower expression of SSE4 and CD81 in responders. Finally, miRNA analysis showed 25 upregulated and 19 downregulated miRNAs in responders. In particular, in responders we observed upregulation of miR-141-3p, miR-141-5p, miR-200a-3p, miR-200b-3p, miR-200c-3p, miR-375-3p, miR-429, miR-545-5p. These miRNAs have targets with a previously reported role in PC. In conclusion, we show the feasibility of the proposed approach to identify EV-derived biomarkers with predictive value for therapy with gemcitabine + nab-paclitaxel in PC. Our findings highlight the possibility to exploit liquid biopsy for personalized treatment in PC, in order to maximize chances of response and patients’ outcome. These findings are worthy of further investigation: in the same setting, with different chemotherapy schedules, and in different disease settings such as preoperative therapy.

Undergraduate teaching of ideal and real fluid flows: The value of real-world experimental projects

This study describes the pedagogical impact of real-world experimental projects undertaken as part of an advanced undergraduate Fluid Mechanics subject at an Australian university. The projects have been organised to complement traditional lectures and introduce students to the challenges of professional design, physical modelling, data collection and analysis. The physical model studies combine experimental, analytical and numerical work in order to develop students’ abilities to tackle real-world problems. A first study illustrates the differences between ideal and real fluid flow force predictions based upon model tests of buildings in a large size wind tunnel used for research and professional testing. A second study introduces the complexity arising from unsteady non-uniform wave loading on a sheltered pile. The teaching initiative is supported by feedback from undergraduate students. The pedagogy of the course and projects is discussed with reference to experiential, project-based and collaborative learning. The practical work complements traditional lectures and tutorials, and provides opportunities which cannot be learnt in the classroom, real or virtual. Student feedback demonstrates a strong interest for the project phases of the course. This was associated with greater motivation for the course, leading in turn to lower failure rates. In terms of learning outcomes, the primary aim is to enable students to deliver a professional report as the final product, where physical model data are compared to ideal-fluid flow calculations and real-fluid flow analyses. Thus the students are exposed to a professional design approach involving a high level of expertise in fluid mechanics, with sufficient academic guidance to achieve carefully defined learning goals, while retaining sufficient flexibility for students to construct there own learning goals. The overall pedagogy is a blend of problem-based and project-based learning, which reflects academic research and professional practice. The assessment is a mix of peer-assessed oral presentations and written reports that aims to maximise student reflection and development. Student feedback indicated a strong motivation for courses that include a well-designed project component.

A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

Prognostic Value of Dobutamine Stress Echocardiography With Early Injection of Atropine With Versus Without Chronic Beta-Blocker Therapy in Patients With Known or Suspected Coronary Heart Disease

Although a new protocol of dobutamine stress echocardiography with the early injection of atropine (EA-DSE) has been demonstrated to be useful in reducing adverse effects and increasing the number of effective tests and to have similar accuracy for detecting coronary artery disease (CAD) compared with conventional protocols, no data exist regarding its ability to predict long-term events. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic value of EA-DSE and the effects of the long-term use of beta blockers on it. A retrospective evaluation of 844 patients who underwent EA-DSE for known or suspected CAD was performed; 309 (37%) were receiving beta blockers. During a median follow-up period of 24 months, 102 events (12%) occurred. On univariate analysis, predictors of events were the ejection fraction (p <0.001), male gender (p <0.001), previous myocardial infarction (p <0.001), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor therapy (p = 0.021), calcium channel blocker therapy (p = 0.034), and abnormal results on EA-DSE (p <0.001). On multivariate analysis, the independent predictors of events were male gender (relative risk [RR] 1.78, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.13 to 2.81, p = 0.013) and abnormal results on EA-DSE (RR 4.45, 95% CI 2.84 to 7.01, p <0.0001). Normal results on EA-DSE with P blockers were associated with a nonsignificant higher incidence of events than normal results on EA-DSE without beta blockers (RR 1.29, 95% CI 0.58 to 2.87, p = 0.54). Abnormal results on EA-DSE with beta blockers had an RR of 4.97 (95% CI 2.79 to 8.87, p <0.001) compared with normal results, while abnormal results on EA-DSE without beta blockers had an RR of 5.96 (95% CI 3.41 to 10.44, p <0.001) for events, with no difference between groups (p = 0.36). In conclusion, the detection of fixed or inducible wall motion abnormalities during EA-DSE was an independent predictor of long-term events in patients with known or suspected CAD. The prognostic value of EA-DSE was not affected by the long-term use of beta blockers. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. (Am J Cardiol 2008;102:1291-1295)

Prognostic value of left atrial volume in patients who underwent dobutamine stress echocardiography for known or suspected coronary artery disease

Background Left atrial volume indexed (LAVI) has been reported as a predictor of cardiovascular events. We sought to determine the prognostic value of LAVI for predicting the outcome of patients who underwent dobutamine stress echocardiography (DSE) for known or suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). Methods From January 2000 to July 2005, we studied 981 patients who underwent DSE and off-line measurements of LAVI. The value of DSE over clinical and LAVI data was examined using a stepwise log-rank test. Results During a median follow-up of 24 months, 56 (6%) events occurred. By univariate analysis, predictors of events were male sex, diabetes mellitus, previous myocardial infarction, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), left atrial diameter indexed, LAVI, and abnormal DSE. By multivariate analysis, independent predictors were LVEF (relative risk [RR] = 0.98, 95% CI 0.95-1.00), LAVI (RR = 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.05), and abnormal DSE (RR = 2.70, 95% CI 1.28-5.69). In an incremental multivariate model, LAVI was additional to clinical data for predicting events (chi(2) 36.8, P < .001). The addition of DSE to clinical and LAVI yielded incremental information (chi(2) 55.3, P < .001). The 3-year event-free survival in patients with normal DSE and LAVI <= 33 mL/m(2) was 96%; with abnormal DSE and LAVI <= 33 mL/m(2), 91%; with normal DSE and LAVI >34 mL/m(2), 83%; and with abnormal DSE and LAVI >34 mL/m(2) 51%. Conclusion Left atrial volume indexed provides independent prognostic information in patients who underwent DSE for known or suspected CAD. Among patients with normal DSE, those with larger LAVI had worse outcome, and among patients with abnormal DSE, LAVI was still predictive. (Am Heart J 2008; 156:1110-6.)

Ovarian reserve evaluation: state of the art

Purpose Revise role of hormonal basal and dynamic tests, as well as ultrasonographic measures as ovarian reserve markers, in order to provide better counseling to subfertile couples. Methods Review of publications on the topic, with an emphasis on recent well designed articles. Results Currently available ovarian reserve tests do not provide sufficient evidence to be solely considered ideal, even for premature ovarian senescence patients who do not present subfertility complaints. However, these markers occupy important place in initial approach to treatment of subfertile couples, predicting unsatisfactory results that could be improved by differentiated induction schemes and reducing excessive psychological and financial burdens, and adverse effects. Conclusions In order to remedy the limitations due to the scarcity of strong evidence about this topic, future studies should try to clarify predictive value of markers in groups of specific diseases-related subfertility and pay special attention to propaedeutic multivariate models including anti-Mullerian hormone and antral follicle count.

Diagnostic performance of Antineutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibody tests for Idiopathic Vasculitides: Metaanalysis with a focus on antimyeloperoxidase antibodies

Objective. The diagnostic value of tests for antimyeloperoxidase antibodies (anti-MPO) for systemic vasculitis is less established than that for cytoplasmic antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (cANCA)/antiproteinase 3 antibodies (anti-PR3). Controversy exists regarding the optimal utilization of indirect immunofluorescence (IIF) ANCA testing versus antigen-specific ANCA testing. To summarize the pertinent data, we conducted a metaanalysis examining the diagnostic value of ANCA testing systems that include assays for anti-MPO. Methods. We performed a structured Medline search and reference list review. Target articles in the search strategy were those reporting the diagnostic value of immunoassays for anti-MPO for the spectrum of systemic necrotizing vasculitides that includes Wegener's granulomatosis, microscopic polyangiitis, the Churg-Strauss syndrome, and isolated pauci-immune necrotizing or crescentic glomerulonephritis, regardless of other types of ANCA tests. Inclusion criteria required specification of a consecutive or random patient selection method and the use of acceptable criteria for the diagnosis of vasculitis exclusive of ANCA test results. Weighted pooled summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity were calculated for anti-MPO alone, anti-MPO + perinuclear ANCA (pANCA), and anti-MPO/pANCA + anti-PR3/cANCA. Results. Of 457 articles reviewed, only 7 met the selection criteria. Summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity (against disease controls only) of assays for anti-MPO for the diagnosis of systemic necrotizing vasculitides were 37.1% (confidence interval 26.6% to 47.6%) and 96.3% (CI 94.1% to 98.5%), respectively. When the pANCA pattern by IIF was combined with anti-MPO testing, the specificity improved to 99.4%, with a lower sensitivity, 31.5%. The combined ANCA testing system (anti-PR3/cANCA + anti-MPO/pANCA) increased the sensitivity to 85.5% with a specificity of 98.6%. Conclusion. These results suggest that while anti-MPO is relatively specific for the diagnosis of systemic vasculitis, the combination system of immunoassays for anti-MPO and IIF for pANCA is highly specific and both tests should be used together given the high diagnostic precision required for these conditions. Because patients with ANCA associated vasculitis have either anti-MPO with pANCA or anti-PR3 with cANCA, and rarely both, a combined ANCA testing system including anti-PR3/cANCA and anti-MPO/pANCA is recommended to optimize the diagnostic performance of ANCA testing. (J Rheumatol 2001;28:1584-90)