Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Interaction paradigms versus age-related user profiles: an evaluation on content selection

Novel input modalities such as touch, tangibles or gestures try to exploit human's innate skills rather than imposing new learning processes. However, despite the recent boom of different natural interaction paradigms, it hasn't been systematically evaluated how these interfaces influence a user's performance or whether each interface could be more or less appropriate when it comes to: 1) different age groups; and 2) different basic operations, as data selection, insertion or manipulation. This work presents the first step of an exploratory evaluation about whether or not the users' performance is indeed influenced by the different interfaces. The key point is to understand how different interaction paradigms affect specific target-audiences (children, adults and older adults) when dealing with a selection task. 60 participants took part in this study to assess how different interfaces may influence the interaction of specific groups of users with regard to their age. Four input modalities were used to perform a selection task and the methodology was based on usability testing (speed, accuracy and user preference). The study suggests a statistically significant difference between mean selection times for each group of users, and also raises new issues regarding the “old” mouse input versus the “new” input modalities.

Escola, democracia e autonomia: uma análise das políticas e práticas no cotidiano escolar

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências da Educação - Especialidade em Política Educativa

Plataforma para suporte ao ciclo de vida de organizações virtuais e seleção dinâmica de parceiros e fornecedores

Tese de Doutoramento em Engenharia Industrial e de Sistemas

Rapid assessment of fruit-color selection by birds using artificial fruits at local scale in Central Amazonia

Modeling clays have been used in several ecological experiments and have proved to be an important tool to variables control. The objective of our study was to determine if fruit color in isolated and grouped displays influences the fruit selection by birds in the field using artificial fruits. Data were collected in six plots distributed homogeneously in 3 km long trails with a minimum distance of 0.5 km. We used a paired experimental design to establish our experiments, so that all treatments were available to the local bird community in each plot. Overall, red was more pecked than brown and white. Isolated red and brown displays were significantly more pecked than others display. Even though our study was conducted in small spatial scales, artificial fruits appeared to be efficient in register fruit consumption attempts by bird. Although inconclusive about selective forces that sharp the dynamics of fruit color polymorphisms and choice by frugivorous birds, our findings corroborate recent studies wherein birds showed preferences by high- over low-contrast fruit signals.

Analysis and selection of indicators for a sustainability assessment method for school buildings based on SBTool ‐ PT

Nowadays, the sustainability of buildings has an extreme importance. This concept goes towards the European aims of the Program Horizon 2020, which concerns about the reduction of the environmental impacts through such aspects as the energy efficiency and renewable technologies, among others. Sustainability is an extremely broad concept but, in this work, it is intended to include the concept of sustainability in buildings. Within the concept that aims the integration of environmental, social and economic levels towards the preservation of the planet and the integrity of the users, there are, currently, several types of tools of environmental certification that are applicable to the construction industry (LEED, BREEAM, DGNB, SBTool, among others). Within this context, it is highlighted the tool SBTool (Sustainable Building Tool) that is employed in several countries and can be subject to review in institutions of basic education, which are the base for the formation of the critical masses and for the development of a country. The main aim of this research is to select indicators that can be used in a methodology for sustainability assessment (SBTool) of school buildings in Portugal and in Brazil. In order to achieve it, it will also be analyzed other methodologies that already incorporate parameters directly related with the schools environment, such as BREEAM or LEED.

O ensino de canto nos ramos genérico e vocacional no 1º ciclo do ensino básico: um estudo de caso múltiplo

Tese de Doutoramento em Estudos da Criança (área de especialização em Educação Musical).

Human and murine clonal CD8+ T cell expansions arise during tuberculosis because of TCR selection

The immune system can recognize virtually any antigen, yet T cell responses against several pathogens, including Mycobacterium tuberculosis, are restricted to a limited number of immunodominant epitopes. The host factors that affect immunodominance are incompletely understood. Whether immunodominant epitopes elicit protective CD8+ T cell responses or instead act as decoys to subvert immunity and allow pathogens to establish chronic infection is unknown. Here we show that anatomically distinct human granulomas contain clonally expanded CD8+ T cells with overlapping T cell receptor (TCR) repertoires. Similarly, the murine CD8+ T cell response against M. tuberculosis is dominated by TB10.44-11-specific T cells with extreme TCRß bias. Using a retro genic model of TB10.44-11-specific CD8+ Tcells, we show that TCR dominance can arise because of competition between clonotypes driven by differences in affinity. Finally, we demonstrate that TB10.4-specific CD8+ T cells mediate protection against tuberculosis, which requires interferon-? production and TAP1-dependent antigen presentation in vivo. Our study of how immunodominance, biased TCR repertoires, and protection are inter-related, provides a new way to measure the quality of T cell immunity, which if applied to vaccine evaluation, could enhance our understanding of how to elicit protective T cell immunity.

Fine time scaling of purifying selection on human nonsynonymous mtDNA mutations based on the worldwide population tree and mother-child pairs

A high-resolution mtDNA phylogenetic tree allowed us to look backward in time to investigate purifying selection. Purifying selection was very strong in the last 2,500 years, continuously eliminating pathogenic mutations back until the end of the Younger Dryas (∼11,000 years ago), when a large population expansion likely relaxed selection pressure. This was preceded by a phase of stable selection until another relaxation occurred in the out-of-Africa migration. Demography and selection are closely related: expansions led to relaxation of selection and higher pathogenicity mutations significantly decreased the growth of descendants. The only detectible positive selection was the recurrence of highly pathogenic nonsynonymous mutations (m.3394T>C-m.3397A>G-m.3398T>C) at interior branches of the tree, preventing the formation of a dinucleotide STR (TATATA) in the MT-ND1 gene. At the most recent time scale in 124 mother-children transmissions, purifying selection was detectable through the loss of mtDNA variants with high predicted pathogenicity. A few haplogroup-defining sites were also heteroplasmic, agreeing with a significant propensity in 349 positions in the phylogenetic tree to revert back to the ancestral variant. This nonrandom mutation property explains the observation of heteroplasmic mutations at some haplogroup-defining sites in sequencing datasets, which may not indicate poor quality as has been claimed.

External and internal dynamics in the EU's counter-terrorism policy: a political and legal analysis

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciência Política e Relações Internacionais

Predicting SO2 pollution incidents by means of additive models with optimum variable selection

The aim of this paper is to predict time series of SO2 concentrations emitted by coal-fired power stations in order to estimate in advance emission episodes and analyze the influence of some meteorological variables in the prediction. An emission episode is said to occur when the series of bi-hourly means of SO2 is greater than a specific level. For coal-fired power stations it is essential to predict emission epi- sodes sufficiently in advance so appropriate preventive measures can be taken. We proposed a meth- odology to predict SO2 emission episodes based on using an additive model and an algorithm for variable selection. The methodology was applied to the estimation of SO2 emissions registered in sampling lo- cations near a coal-fired power station located in Northern Spain. The results obtained indicate a good performance of the model considering only two terms of the time series and that the inclusion of the meteorological variables in the model is not significant.

Spawning habitat selection by Octopus vulgaris: new insights for a more effective management of this resource

The selection of spawning habitat of a population of Octopus vulgaris that is subject to a small-scale exploitation was studied in the Cíes Islands within the National Park of the Atlantic Islands of Galicia (NW Spain). The technique used was visual censuses by scuba diving. We conducted 93 visual censuses from April 2012 to April 2014. The total swept area was 123.69 ha. Habitat features (season, depth, zone, bottom temperature, swept area, bottom substrate type, and creels fishing impact) were evaluated as predictors of the presence/absence of spawning dens using GAM models. O. vulgaris has a noteworthy preference for spawning in areas with hard bottom substrate and moderate depth (approximately 20 m). The higher density of spawning dens (1.08ha−1) was found in a surveyed area of 50.14ha located in the northeastern part of the northern Cíes Island. We propose to protect the area comprised from Punta Escodelo to Punta Ferreiro between 5 and 30 m depth. This area has a surface of 158 ha equivalent to 5.98% of the total marine area of the Cíes islands. The strengths and weaknesses of a management strategy based on the protection of the species’ spawning habitat are discussed.

The Portuguese programme one laptop per child: political, educational and social impact

In 2008, the XVII Portuguese Constitutional Government launched the ‘e.escolinha’ programme, within the Technological Plan for Education, which set out the distribution of a computer, called ‘Magalhães’, designed for chil-dren attending the 1st cycle of basic education. Suspended in 2011 by the XIX Government, this programme has allowed, however, almost 500 000 children to have access to a personal computer. It was expected that this political measure would “revolutionise” the national education system by bringing changes to the pedagogical practices of teachers and the learning processes of children and by achieving educational success, in general. Based on documental analysis and on a set of interviews with key decision-makers in conceiving, implementing and monitoring this governmental initiative, the fi rst part of this chapter presents and analyses the ‘e.escolinha’ initiative and the policies be-hind that governmental programme, seeking to disassemble those objectives and provide some insights into the relationship between discourses, rhetoric, and reality. After that, the chapter focuses on children’s uses and practices with the ‘Magalhães’ laptop, at school and at home. Based on the results of questionnaires fi lled in by approximately 1500 children from 32 First Cycle public schools of the municipality of Braga (north of Portugal) and also from questionnaires applied to their parents and teachers, this chapter intends to analyse the real impact of this initiative for children, family and school. It also seeks to discuss the contribution of this educational policy to children’s digital literacy and also to their own and their families’ social and digital inclusion. To understand if it represented an added value to teachers’ pedagogical practice is another of its aims. The fi ndings point out a major focus on technology and access rather than on uses and competences or even on social, educational and cultural change. In fact, a major conclusion is the existence of a strong gap between the policy and the practices, typical of a top-down policy design. This study is an integrant part of a research project titled “Navigating with ‘Magalhães’: Study on the Impact of Digital Media in Schoolchildren” conducted at the University of Minho, Portugal, financed by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology [PTDC/CCI-COM/101381/2008] and co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund [COMPETE: FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-009056].

Useful clinical features for the selection of ideal patients with strial fibrillation for mapping and catheter ablation

OBJECTIVE: To identify useful clinical characteristics for selecting patients eligible for mapping and ablation of atrial fibrillation. METHODS: We studied 9 patients with atrial fibrillation, without structural heart disease, associated with: 1) antiarrhythmic drugs, 2) symptoms of low cardiac output, and 3) intention to treat. Seven patients had paroxysmal atrial fibrillation and 2 had recurrent atrial fibrillation. RESULTS: In the 6 patients who underwent mapping (all had paroxysmal atrial fibrillation), catheter ablation was successfully carried out in superior pulmonary veins in 5 patients (the first 3 in the left superior pulmonary vein and the last 2 in the right superior pulmonary vein). One patient experienced a recurrence of atrial fibrillation after 10 days. We observed that patients who had short episodes of atrial fibrillation on 24-hour Holter monitoring before the procedure were those in whom mapping the focus of tachycardia was possible. Tachycardia was successfully suppressed in 4 of 6 patients. The cause of failure was due to the impossibility of maintaining sinus rhythm long enough for efficient mapping. CONCLUSION: Patients experiencing short episodes of atrial fibrillation during 24-hour Holter monitoring were the most eligible for mapping and ablation, with a final success rate of 66%, versus the global success rate of 44%. Patients with persistent atrial fibrillation were not good candidates for focal ablation.

New integrative computational approaches unveil the Saccharomyces cerevisiae pheno-metabolomic fermentative profile and allow strain selection for winemaking

During must fermentation by Saccharomyces cerevisiae strains thousands of volatile aroma compounds are formed. The objective of the present work was to adapt computational approaches to analyze pheno-metabolomic diversity of a S. cerevisiae strain collection with different origins. Phenotypic and genetic characterization together with individual must fermentations were performed, and metabolites relevant to aromatic profiles were determined. Experimental results were projected onto a common coordinates system, revealing 17 statistical-relevant multi-dimensional modules, combining sets of most-correlated features of noteworthy biological importance. The present method allowed, as a breakthrough, to combine genetic, phenotypic and metabolomic data, which has not been possible so far due to difficulties in comparing different types of data. Therefore, the proposed computational approach revealed as successful to shed light into the holistic characterization of S. cerevisiae pheno-metabolome in must fermentative conditions. This will allow the identification of combined relevant features with application in selection of good winemaking strains.