Application of nonlinear filtering to credit risk

Merton's model views equity as a call option on the asset of the firm. Thus the asset is partially observed through the equity. Then using nonlinear filtering an explicit expression for likelihood ratio for underlying parameters in terms of the nonlinear filter is obtained. As the evolution of the filter itself depends on the parameters in question, this does not permit direct maximum likelihood estimation, but does pave the way for the `Expectation-Maximization' method for estimating parameters. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Microfinance, Efficiency and Agricultural Production in Bangladesh

The objectives of this study were to make a detailed and systematic empirical analysis of microfinance borrowers and non-borrowers in Bangladesh and also examine how efficiency measures are influenced by the access to agricultural microfinance. In the empirical analysis, this study used both parametric and non-parametric frontier approaches to investigate differences in efficiency estimates between microfinance borrowers and non-borrowers. This thesis, based on five articles, applied data obtained from a survey of 360 farm households from north-central and north-western regions in Bangladesh. The methods used in this investigation involve stochastic frontier (SFA) and data envelopment analysis (DEA) in addition to sample selectivity and limited dependent variable models. In article I, technical efficiency (TE) estimation and identification of its determinants were performed by applying an extended Cobb-Douglas stochastic frontier production function. The results show that farm households had a mean TE of 83% with lower TE scores for the non-borrowers of agricultural microfinance. Addressing institutional policies regarding the consolidation of individual plots into farm units, ensuring access to microfinance, extension education for the farmers with longer farming experience are suggested to improve the TE of the farmers. In article II, the objective was to assess the effects of access to microfinance on household production and cost efficiency (CE) and to determine the efficiency differences between the microfinance participating and non-participating farms. In addition, a non-discretionary DEA model was applied to capture directly the influence of microfinance on farm households production and CE. The results suggested that under both pooled DEA models and non-discretionary DEA models, farmers with access to microfinance were significantly more efficient than their non-borrowing counterparts. Results also revealed that land fragmentation, family size, household wealth, on farm-training and off farm income share are the main determinants of inefficiency after effectively correcting for sample selection bias. In article III, the TE of traditional variety (TV) and high-yielding-variety (HYV) rice producers were estimated in addition to investigating the determinants of adoption rate of HYV rice. Furthermore, the role of TE as a potential determinant to explain the differences of adoption rate of HYV rice among the farmers was assessed. The results indicated that in spite of its much higher yield potential, HYV rice production was associated with lower TE and had a greater variability in yield. It was also found that TE had a significant positive influence on the adoption rates of HYV rice. In article IV, we estimated profit efficiency (PE) and profit-loss between microfinance borrowers and non-borrowers by a sample selection framework, which provided a general framework for testing and taking into account the sample selection in the stochastic (profit) frontier function analysis. After effectively correcting for selectivity bias, the mean PE of the microfinance borrowers and non-borrowers were estimated at 68% and 52% respectively. This suggested that a considerable share of profits were lost due to profit inefficiencies in rice production. The results also demonstrated that access to microfinance contributes significantly to increasing PE and reducing profit-loss per hectare land. In article V, the effects of credit constraints on TE, allocative efficiency (AE) and CE were assessed while adequately controlling for sample selection bias. The confidence intervals were determined by the bootstrap method for both samples. The results indicated that differences in average efficiency scores of credit constrained and unconstrained farms were not statistically significant although the average efficiencies tended to be higher in the group of unconstrained farms. After effectively correcting for selectivity bias, household experience, number of dependents, off-farm income, farm size, access to on farm training and yearly savings were found to be the main determinants of inefficiencies. In general, the results of the study revealed the existence substantial technical, allocative, economic inefficiencies and also considerable profit inefficiencies. The results of the study suggested the need to streamline agricultural microfinance by the microfinance institutions (MFIs), donor agencies and government at all tiers. Moreover, formulating policies that ensure greater access to agricultural microfinance to the smallholder farmers on a sustainable basis in the study areas to enhance productivity and efficiency has been recommended. Key Words: Technical, allocative, economic efficiency, DEA, Non-discretionary DEA, selection bias, bootstrapping, microfinance, Bangladesh.

New Ventures’ influence on the Growth of SME Employment, Production and Exports in India: Does Institutional Credit matter?

New ventures are considered to be a major source of small firm growth. In Indian context the contribution of new ventures in terms of new employment, production and exports has largely remained unexplored. It is equally important and unexplored, the significance of the contribution of bank credit to the growth of new ventures in India. This paper is an attempt to throw light on these two aspects. The research is based on secondary data of the liberalized period provided by Ministry of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises, Government of India and Reserve Bank of India. To analyze the influence of bank credit growth on new ventures and the influence of new ventures on growth of additional employment, additional production and additional exports, we used a Bi-Variate Vector Auto Regression. Based on the model generated, Granger causality tests are conducted to obtain the results. The study found that rate of growth of bank credit causes the number of new ventures, implying any increase in the rate of growth of bank credit will be beneficial to the growth of new ventures. The study also concluded that new ventures are not causing the growth of additional employment or additional production. However new ventures cause the growth of additional exports. This is reasonable as entrepreneurs start their new ventures with minimum possible employment and relatively low rate of capacity utilization and they come up to take advantage of the process of globalization by catering to the international market.

Pricing credit derivatives

The financial crisis set off by the default of Lehman Brothers in 2008 leading to disastrous consequences for the global economy has focused attention on regulation and pricing issues related to credit derivatives. Credit risk refers to the potential losses that can arise due to the changes in the credit quality of financial instruments. These changes could be due to changes in the ratings, market price (spread) or default on contractual obligations. Credit derivatives are financial instruments designed to mitigate the adverse impact that may arise due to credit risks. However, they also allow the investors to take up purely speculative positions. In this article we provide a succinct introduction to the notions of credit risk, the credit derivatives market and describe some of the important credit derivative products. There are two approaches to pricing credit derivatives, namely the structural and the reduced form or intensity-based models. A crucial aspect of the modelling that we touch upon briefly in this article is the problem of calibration of these models. We hope to convey through this article the challenges that are inherent in credit risk modelling, the elegant mathematics and concepts that underlie some of the models and the importance of understanding the limitations of the models.

Humildad, respeto y servicio ante la dignidad personal del embrión humano

Resumen: Ciertamente, ningún dato biológico es por sí mismo suficiente para describir el milagro de la vida. Sin embargo, cuando la ciencia es entendida como un servicio a la humanidad, los científicos son capaces de brindarnos los conocimientos necesarios y suficientes para percibir una presencia personal desde el primer instante de la vida de cada embrión humano.

Personal identity. A theoretical and experimental analysis

Published as article in: Journal of Economic Methodology, 2010, vol. 17, issue 3, pages 261-275.

The role of personal involvement and responsibility in dictatorial allocations: A classroom experiment

Paper was revised on 2009-11-11.-- Published as article in: Rationality and Society (2009), 21(2), 1-24.

Los dominios social y personal del autoconcepto

[Es] El estudio del autoconcepto continúa siendo uno de los grandes retos de la investigación psicológica. Se trata de un campo de investigación muy amplio en el que tanto la dimensión física como la académica han sido objeto de numerosas investigaciones; por el contrario son pocas las investigaciones llevadas a cabo tanto sobre el autoconcepto social como sobre el autoconcepto personal. En este trabajo se informa de dos estudios llevados a cabo con el fin de verificar si los análisis factoriales confirman una estructura multidimensional de tres componentes en el caso del social (la responsabilidad social, la aceptación social y la competencia social) y de cuatro componentes en la del personal: la autorrealización, la honradez, la autonomía, y el ajuste emocional. Los resultados obtenidos a partir de la aplicación de dos cuestionarios elaborados específicamente para medir ambos dominios (APE y AUSO) confirman en buena medida esta estructura; los factores identificados explican un 52,56% y un 41,43%, respectivamente, de la varianza. Por otro lado, los índices de consistencia interna son aceptables en ambos casos: alpha 0.85 en el APE y alpha 0.76 en el AUSO. Se proponen algunos cambios a incorporar en la versión definitiva de ambos cuestionarios.

Un análisis de los principales sistemas de identificación y perfil para el personal investigador

Se analizan las diferentes iniciativas que han surgido para identificar de forma exacta al investigador y su currículum, puestas en marcha por entidades gubernamentales, bibliotecarios y documentalistas, productores y distribuidores de bases de datos y consorcios con participación de todas las entidades involucradas en la producción científica. Del examen de los más representativos,se proponen consideraciones de utilidad para el desarrollo y mejora de tales sistemas, así como orientaciones clarificadoras para el personal investigador, ya que su implantación es un problema complejo que implica un gran número de interesados con puntos de vista opuestos sobre algunas de las cuestiones que deben abordarse, tales como el acceso a la información, la privacidad,los modelos de negocio y de colaboración, o los derechos de propiedad intelectual. Se concluye la necesidad de adoptar sistemas que integren identificador y perfil de autor, que permitan la interoperatividad y recojan soluciones ya refutadas en el mundo bibliotecario, así como promover su aceptación y uso generalizado por parte de la comunidad científica.

Consumer Expertise or Credit Risk? An empirical analysis of mortgage pricing

Loan mortgage interest rates are usually the result of a bank-customer negotiation process. Credit risk, consumer cross-buying potential, bundling, financial market competition and other features affecting the bargaining power of the parties could affect price. We argue that, since mortgage loan is a complex product, consumer expertise could be a relevant factor for mortgage pricing. Using data on mortgage loan prices for a sample of 1055 households for the year 2005 (Bank of Spain Survey of Household Finances, EFF-2005), and including credit risk, costs, potential capacity of the consumer to generate future business and bank competition variables, the regression results indicate that consumer expertise-related metrics are highly significant as predictors of mortgage loan prices. Other factors such as credit risk and consumer cross-buying potential do not have such a significant impact on mortgage prices. Our empirical results are affected by the credit conditions prior to the financial crisis and could shed some light on this issue.

Análisis de las publicaciones del personal docente e investigador de las facultades españolas de Bellas Artes

8 p.