Predictive technology and natural hazards: Risk for Australian planning authorities?

Purpose The object of this paper is to examine whether the improvements in technology that enhance community understanding of the frequency and severity of natural hazards also increased the risk of potential liability of planning authorities in negligence. In Australia, the National Strategy imposes a resilience based approach to disaster management and stresses that responsible land use planning can reduce or prevent the impact of natural hazards upon communities. Design/methodology/approach This paper analyses how the principles of negligence allocate responsibility for loss suffered by a landowner in a hazard prone area between the landowner and local government. Findings The analysis in this paper concludes that despite being able to establish a causal link between the loss suffered by a landowner and the approval of a local authority to build in a hazard prone area, it would be in the rarest of circumstances a negligence action may be proven. Research limitations/implications The focus of this paper is on planning policies and land development, not on the negligent provision of advice or information by the local authority. Practical implications This paper identifies the issues a landowner may face when seeking compensation from a local authority for loss suffered due to the occurrence of a natural hazard known or predicted to be possible in the area. Originality/value The paper establishes that as risk managers, local authorities must place reliance upon scientific modelling and predictive technology when determining planning processes in order to fulfil their responsibilities under the National Strategy and to limit any possible liability in negligence.

Arterial stiffness and cardiovascular risk factors

Background: As the human body ages, the arteries gradually lose their elasticity and become stiffer. Although inevitable, this process is influenced by hereditary and environmental factors. Interestingly, many classic cardiovascular risk factors affect the arterial stiffness. During the last decade, accelerated arterial stiffening has been recognized as an important cardiovascular risk factor associated with increased mortality as well as with several chronic disorders. Objectives: This thesis examines the role of arterial stiffness in relation to variations in a physiological feature in healthy individuals. In addition, the effect on arterial stiffness of an acute transitory disease and the effect of a chronic disease are studied. Furthermore, the thesis analyzes the prognostic value of a marker of arterial stiffness in individuals with chronic disease. Finally, a potential method of reducing arterial stiffness is evaluated. Material and study design: The first study examines pulse wave reflection and pulse wave velocity in relation to muscle fibre distribution in healthy middle-aged men. In the second study, pulse wave reflection in women with current or previous preeclampsia is compared to a healthy control group. The effect of aging on the different blood pressure indices in patients with type 1 diabetes is examined in the third study, whereas the fourth paper studies the relation between these blood pressure indices and mortality in type 2 diabetes. The fifth study evaluates how intake of a fermented milk product containing bioactive peptides affects pulse wave reflection in individuals with mild hypertension. Results and conclusions: Muscle fibre type distribution is not an independent determinant of arterial stiffness in middle-aged males. Pulse wave reflection is increased in pregnant women with preeclampsia, but not in previously preeclamptic non-pregnant women. Patients with type 1 diabetes have a higher and more rapidly increasing pulse pressure, which suggests accelerated arterial stiffening. In elderly type 2 diabetic patients, very high and very low levels of pulse pressure are associated with higher mortality. Intake of milk-derived bioactive peptides reduces pulse wave reflection in hypertensive males but not in hypertensive females.

Identifying Genetic Risk Factors in Canine Autoimmune Disorders

Autoimmune diseases are more common in dogs than in humans and are already threatening the future of some highly predisposed dog breeds. Susceptibility to autoimmune diseases is controlled by environmental and genetic factors, especially the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) gene region. Dogs show a similar physiology, disease presentation and clinical response as humans, making them an excellent disease model for autoimmune diseases common to both species. The genetic background of canine autoimmune disorders is largely unknown, but recent annotation of the dog genome and subsequent development of new genomic tools offer a unique opportunity to map novel autoimmune genes in various breeds. Many autoimmune disorders show breed-specific enrichment, supporting a strong genetic background. Furthermore, the presence of hundreds of breeds as genetic isolates facilitates gene mapping in complex autoimmune disorders. Identification of novel predisposing genes establishes breeds as models and may reveal novel candidate genes for the corresponding human disorders. Genetic studies will eventually shed light on common biological functions and interactions between genes and the environment. This study aimed to identify genetic risk factors in various autoimmune disorders, including systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE)-related diseases, comprising immune-mediated rheumatic disease (IMRD) and steroid-responsive meningitis arteritis (SMRA) as well as Addison s disease (AD) in Nova Scotia Duck Tolling Retrievers (NSDTRs) and chronic superficial keratitis (CSK) in German Shepherd dogs (GSDs). We used two different approaches to identify genetic risk factors. Firstly, a candidate gene approach was applied to test the potential association of MHC class II, also known as a dog leukocyte antigen (DLA) in canine species. Secondly, a genome-wide association study (GWAS) was performed to identify novel risk loci for SLE-related disease and AD in NSDTRs. We identified DLA risk haplotypes for an IMRD subphenotype of SLE-related disease, AD and CSK, but not in SMRA, and show that the MHC class II gene region is a major genetic risk factor in canine autoimmune diseases. An elevated risk was found for IMRD in dogs that carried the DLA-DRB1*00601/DQA1*005011/DQB1*02001 haplotype (OR = 2.0, 99% CI = 1.03-3.95, p = 0.01) and for ANA-positive IMRD dogs (OR = 2.3, 99% CI = 1.07-5.04, p-value 0.007). We also found that DLA-DRB1*01502/DQA*00601/DQB1*02301 haplotype was significantly associated with AD in NSDTRs (OR = 2.1, CI = 1.0-4.4, P = 0.044) and the DLA-DRB1*01501/DQA1*00601/DQB1*00301 haplotype with the CSK in GSDs (OR=2.67, CI=1.17-6.44, p= 0.02). In addition, we found that homozygosity for the risk haplotype increases the risk for each disease phenotype and that an overall homozygosity for the DLA region predisposes to CSK and AD. Our results have enabled the development of genetic tests to improve breeding practices by avoiding the production of puppies homozygous for risk haplotypes. We also performed the first successful GWAS for a complex disease in dogs. With less than 100 cases and 100 controls, we identified five risk loci for SLE-related disease and AD and found strong candidate genes involved in a novel T-cell activation pathway. We show that an inbred dog population has fewer risk factors, but each of them has a stronger genetic risk. Ongoing studies aim to identify the causative mutations and bring new knowledge to help diagnostics, treatment and understanding of the aetiology of SLE-related diseases.

Essays on Stock Option Compensation and the Role of Incentives and Risk (summary section only)

Managerial pay-for-performance sensitivity has increased rapidly around the world. Early empirical research showed that pay-for-performance sensitivity resulting from stock ownership and stock options appeared to be quite low during the 1970s and early 1980s in the U.S. However, recent empirical research from the U.S. shows an enormous increase in pay-for-performance sensitivity. The global trend has also reached Finland, where stock options have become a major ingredient of executive compensation. The fact that stock options seem to be an appealing form of remuneration from a theoretical point of view combined with the observation that the use of this compensation form has increased significantly during the recent years, implies that research on the dynamics of stock option compensation is highly relevant for the academic community, as well as for practitioners and regulators. The research questions of the thesis are analyzed in four separate essays. The first essay examines whether stock option compensation practices of Finnish firms are consistent with predictions from principal-agent theory. The second essay explores one of the major puzzles in the compensation literature by studying determinants of stock option contract design. In theory, optimal contract design should vary according to firm characteristics. However, in the U.S., variation in contract design seems to be surprisingly low, a phenomenon generally attributed to tax and accounting considerations. In Finland, however, firms are not subject to stringent contracting restrictions, and the variation in contract design tends, in fact, to be quite substantial. The third essay studies the impact of price- and risk incentives arising from stock option compensation on firm investment. In addition, the essay explores one of the most debated questions in the literature, in particular, the relation between incentives and firm performance. Finally, several strands of literature in both economics and corporate finance hypothesize that economic uncertainty is related to corporate decision-making. Previous research has shown that risk tends to slow down firm investment. In the fourth essay, it is hypothesized that firm risk slows down growth from a more universal perspective. Consistent with this view, it is shown that risk not only tends to slow down firm investment, but also employment growth. Moreover, the essay explores whether the nature of firms’ compensation policies, in particular, whether firms make use of stock option compensation, affects the relation between risk and firm growth. In summary, the four essays contribute to the current understanding of stock options as a form of equity incentives, and how incentives and risk affect corporate decision-making. By this, the thesis promotes the knowledge related to the modern theory of the firm.

Optimal Risk Adoption: A Real Options Approach

This study develops a real options approach for analyzing the optimal risk adoption policy in an environment where the adoption means a switch from one stochastic flow representation into another. We establish that increased volatility needs not decelerate investment, as predicted by the standard literature on real options, once the underlying volatility of the state is made endogenous. We prove that for a decision maker with a convex (concave) objective function, increased post-adoption volatility increases (decreases) the expected cumulative present value of the post-adoption profit flow, which consequently decreases (increases) the option value of waiting and, therefore, accelerates (decelerates) current investment.

The impact of stock option incentives on investment and firm value

This paper analyzes the relations among firm-level stock option portfolio incentives, investment, and firm value based on a sample of Finnish firms during the time period 1987 – 2000. Utilizing exact and complete information regarding stock option portfolio characteristics, we find some evidence that firm investment is increasing in the incentives to increase stock price (delta) and risk (vega). Furthermore, we find strong evidence of a positive relation between both incentive effects and firm value (Tobin’s Q). In contrast, when we allow for stock option incentives, investment, and firm value to be simultaneously determined, we find no evidence that investment is increasing in incentives. However, even after controlling for endogeneity, we find that both incentive effects arising from stock option compensation display a positive and significant effect on firm value. Finally, in contradiction to earlier findings, we observe that neither Tobin’s Q nor investment drives incentives.

Electrocardiographic parameters of ventricular repolarization : modifiers and the prognostic value

Electric activity of the heart consists of repeated cardiomyocyte depolarizations and repolarizations. Abnormalities in repolarization predispose to ventricular arrhythmias. In body surface electrocardiogram, ventricular repolarization generates the T wave. Several electrocardiographic measures have been developed both for clinical and research purposes to detect repolarization abnormalities. The study aim was to investigate modifiers of ventricular repolarization with the focus on the relationship of the left ventricular mass, antihypertensive drugs, and common gene variants, to electrocardiographic repolarization parameters. The prognostic value of repolarization parameters was also assessed. The study subjects originated from a population of more than 200 middle-aged hypertensive men attending the GENRES hypertension study, and from an epidemiological survey, the Health 2000 Study, including more than 6000 participants. Ventricular repolarization was analysed from digital standard 12-lead resting electrocardiograms with two QT-interval based repolarization parameters (QT interval, T-wave peak to T-wave end interval) and with a set of four T-wave morphology parameters. The results showed that in hypertensive men, a linear change in repolarization parameters is present even in the normal range of left ventricular mass, and that even mild left ventricular hypertrophy is associated with potentially adverse electrocardiographic repolarization changes. In addition, treatments with losartan, bisoprolol, amlodipine, and hydrochlorothiazide have divergent short-term effects on repolarization parameters in hypertensive men. Analyses of the general population sample showed that single nucleotide polymorphisms in KCNH2, KCNE1, and NOS1AP genes are associated with changes in QT-interval based repolarization parameters but not consistently with T-wave morphology parameters. T-wave morphology parameters, but not QT interval or T-wave peak to T-wave end interval, provided independent prognostic information on mortality. The prognostic value was specifically related to cardiovascular mortality. The results indicate that, in hypertension, altered ventricular repolarization is already present in mild left ventricular mass increase, and that commonly used antihypertensive drugs may relatively rapidly and treatment-specifically modify electrocardiographic repolarization parameters. Common variants in cardiac ion channel genes and NOS1AP gene may also modify repolarization-related arrhythmia vulnerability. In the general population, T-wave morphology parameters may be useful in the risk assessment of cardiovascular mortality.

Risk-sensitive optimal control for Markov decision processes with monotone cost

The existence of an optimal feedback law is established for the risk-sensitive optimal control problem with denumerable state space. The main assumptions imposed are irreducibility and a near monotonicity condition on the one-step cost function. A solution can be found constructively using either value iteration or policy iteration under suitable conditions on initial feedback law.

Single-machine scheduling with past-sequence-dependent setup times and learning effects: a parametric analysis

In this article, we consider the single-machine scheduling problem with past-sequence-dependent (p-s-d) setup times and a learning effect. The setup times are proportional to the length of jobs that are already scheduled; i.e. p-s-d setup times. The learning effect reduces the actual processing time of a job because the workers are involved in doing the same job or activity repeatedly. Hence, the processing time of a job depends on its position in the sequence. In this study, we consider the total absolute difference in completion times (TADC) as the objective function. This problem is denoted as 1/LE, (Spsd)/TADC in Kuo and Yang (2007) ('Single Machine Scheduling with Past-sequence-dependent Setup Times and Learning Effects', Information Processing Letters, 102, 22-26). There are two parameters a and b denoting constant learning index and normalising index, respectively. A parametric analysis of b on the 1/LE, (Spsd)/TADC problem for a given value of a is applied in this study. In addition, a computational algorithm is also developed to obtain the number of optimal sequences and the range of b in which each of the sequences is optimal, for a given value of a. We derive two bounds b* for the normalising constant b and a* for the learning index a. We also show that, when a < a* or b > b*, the optimal sequence is obtained by arranging the longest job in the first position and the rest of the jobs in short processing time order.

A review of recent developments in parametric based acoustic emission techniques applied to concrete structures

This article presents a review of recent developments in parametric based acoustic emission (AE) techniques applied to concrete structures. It recapitulates the significant milestones achieved by previous researchers including various methods and models developed in AE testing of concrete structures. The aim is to provide an overview of the specific features of parametric based AE techniques of concrete structures carried out over the years. Emphasis is given to traditional parameter-based AE techniques applied to concrete structures. A significant amount of research on AE techniques applied to concrete structures has already been published and considerable attention has been given to those publications. Some recent studies such as AE energy analysis and b-value analysis used to assess damage of concrete bridge beams have also been discussed. The formation of fracture process zone and the AE energy released during the fracture process in concrete beam specimens have been summarised. A large body of experimental data on AE characteristics of concrete has accumulated over the last three decades. This review of parametric based AE techniques applied to concrete structures may be helpful to the concerned researchers and engineers to better understand the failure mechanism of concrete and evolve more useful methods and approaches for diagnostic inspection of structural elements and failure prediction/prevention of concrete structures.

Zero-Sum Risk-Sensitive Stochastic Differential Games

We study zero-sum risk-sensitive stochastic differential games on the infinite horizon with discounted and ergodic payoff criteria. Under certain assumptions, we establish the existence of values and saddle-point equilibria. We obtain our results by studying the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Isaacs equations. Finally, we show that the value of the ergodic payoff criterion is a constant multiple of the maximal eigenvalue of the generators of the associated nonlinear semigroups.

A risk-estimation-based formulation for speech enhancement and its relation to Wiener filtering

The goal of speech enhancement algorithms is to provide an estimate of clean speech starting from noisy observations. The often-employed cost function is the mean square error (MSE). However, the MSE can never be computed in practice. Therefore, it becomes necessary to find practical alternatives to the MSE. In image denoising problems, the cost function (also referred to as risk) is often replaced by an unbiased estimator. Motivated by this approach, we reformulate the problem of speech enhancement from the perspective of risk minimization. Some recent contributions in risk estimation have employed Stein's unbiased risk estimator (SURE) together with a parametric denoising function, which is a linear expansion of threshold/bases (LET). We show that the first-order case of SURE-LET results in a Wiener-filter type solution if the denoising function is made frequency-dependent. We also provide enhancement results obtained with both techniques and characterize the improvement by means of local as well as global SNR calculations.

Zero-sum risk-sensitive stochastic games on a countable state space

Infinite horizon discounted-cost and ergodic-cost risk-sensitive zero-sum stochastic games for controlled Markov chains with countably many states are analyzed. Upper and lower values for these games are established. The existence of value and saddle-point equilibria in the class of Markov strategies is proved for the discounted-cost game. The existence of value and saddle-point equilibria in the class of stationary strategies is proved under the uniform ergodicity condition for the ergodic-cost game. The value of the ergodic-cost game happens to be the product of the inverse of the risk-sensitivity factor and the logarithm of the common Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue of the associated controlled nonlinear kernels. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk-sensitive control of continuous time Markov chains

We study risk-sensitive control of continuous time Markov chains taking values in discrete state space. We study both finite and infinite horizon problems. In the finite horizon problem we characterize the value function via Hamilton Jacobi Bellman equation and obtain an optimal Markov control. We do the same for infinite horizon discounted cost case. In the infinite horizon average cost case we establish the existence of an optimal stationary control under certain Lyapunov condition. We also develop a policy iteration algorithm for finding an optimal control.

Making risk minimization tolerant to label noise

In many applications, the training data, from which one needs to learn a classifier, is corrupted with label noise. Many standard algorithms such as SVM perform poorly in the presence of label noise. In this paper we investigate the robustness of risk minimization to label noise. We prove a sufficient condition on a loss function for the risk minimization under that loss to be tolerant to uniform label noise. We show that the 0-1 loss, sigmoid loss, ramp loss and probit loss satisfy this condition though none of the standard convex loss functions satisfy it. We also prove that, by choosing a sufficiently large value of a parameter in the loss function, the sigmoid loss, ramp loss and probit loss can be made tolerant to nonuniform label noise also if we can assume the classes to be separable under noise-free data distribution. Through extensive empirical studies, we show that risk minimization under the 0-1 loss, the sigmoid loss and the ramp loss has much better robustness to label noise when compared to the SVM algorithm. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.