A comparison of Markov and generalized linear models of hospital mortality

This paper reports a comparison of three modeling strategies for the analysis of hospital mortality in a sample of general medicine inpatients in a Department of Veterans Affairs medical center. Logistic regression, a Markov chain model, and longitudinal logistic regression were evaluated on predictive performance as measured by the c-index and on accuracy of expected numbers of deaths compared to observed. The logistic regression used patient information collected at admission; the Markov model was comprised of two absorbing states for discharge and death and three transient states reflecting increasing severity of illness as measured by laboratory data collected during the hospital stay; longitudinal regression employed Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) to model covariance structure for the repeated binary outcome. Results showed that the logistic regression predicted hospital mortality as well as the alternative methods but was limited in scope of application. The Markov chain provides insights into how day to day changes of illness severity lead to discharge or death. The longitudinal logistic regression showed that increasing illness trajectory is associated with hospital mortality. The conclusion is reached that for standard applications in modeling hospital mortality, logistic regression is adequate, but for new challenges facing health services research today, alternative methods are equally predictive, practical, and can provide new insights. ^

Subcritical Propagation and Coalescence of Oil-Filled Cracks: Getting the Oil Out of Low-Permeability Source Rocks

We use a fracture mechanics model to study subcritical propagation and coalescence of single and collinear oil-filled cracks during conversion of kerogen to oil. The subcritical propagation distance, propagation duration, crack coalescence and excess oil pressure in the crack are determined using the fracture mechanics model together with the kinetics of kerogen-oil transformation. The propagation duration for the single crack is governed by the transformation kinetics whereas the propagation duration for the multiple collinear cracks may vary by two orders of magnitude depending on initial crack spacing. A large amount of kerogen (>90%) remains unconverted when the collinear cracks coalesce and the new, larger cracks resulting from coalescence will continue to propagate with continued kerogen-oil conversion. The excess oil pressure on the crack surfaces drops precipitously when the collinear cracks are about to coalesce, and crack propagation duration and oil pressure on the crack surfaces are strongly dependent on temperature. Citation: Jin, Z.-H., S. E. Johnson, and Z. Q. Fan (2010), Subcritical propagation and coalescence of oil-filled cracks: Getting the oil out of low-permeability source rocks, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L01305, doi:10.1029/2009GL041576.

Search for long-lived stopped R-hadrons decaying out-of-time with pp collisions using the ATLAS detector

An updated search is performed for gluino, top squark, or bottom squark R-hadrons that have come to rest within the ATLAS calorimeter, and decay at some later time to hadronic jets and a neutralino, using 5.0 and 22.9 fb(-1) of pp collisions at 7 and 8 TeV, respectively. Candidate decay events are triggered in selected empty bunch crossings of the LHC in order to remove pp collision backgrounds. Selections based on jet shape and muon system activity are applied to discriminate signal events from cosmic ray and beam-halo muon backgrounds. In the absence of an excess of events, improved limits are set on gluino, stop, and sbottom masses for different decays, lifetimes, and neutralino masses. With a neutralino of mass 100 GeV, the analysis excludes gluinos with mass below 832 GeV (with an expected lower limit of 731 GeV), for a gluino lifetime between 10 mu s and 1000 s in the generic R-hadron model with equal branching ratios for decays to q (q) over bar(chi) over tilde (0) and g (chi) over tilde (0). Under the same assumptions for the neutralino mass and squark lifetime, top squarks and bottom squarks in the Regge R-hadron model are excluded with masses below 379 and 344 GeV, respectively.

Impact of proton pump inhibitor use on magnesium homoeostasis: a cross-sectional study in a tertiary emergency department.

BACKGROUND To date, the use of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) has been associated with a low risk of hypomagnesaemia and associated adverse outcomes. We hypothesised that a better risk estimate could be derived from a large cohort of outpatients admitted to a tertiary emergency department (ED). METHODS A cross-sectional study was performed in 5118 patients who had measurements of serum magnesium taken on admission to a large tertiary care ED between January 2009 and December 2010. Hypomagnesaemia was defined as a serum magnesium concentration < 0.75 mmol/l. Demographical data, serum electrolyte values, data on medication, comorbidities and outcome with regard to length of hospital stay and mortality were analysed. RESULTS Serum magnesium was normally distributed where upon 1246 patients (24%) were hypomagnesaemic. These patients had a higher prevalence of out-of-hospital PPI use and diuretic use when compared with patients with magnesium levels > 0.75 mmol/l (both p < 0.0001). In multivariable regression analyses adjusted for PPIs, diuretics, renal function and the Charlson comorbidity index score, the association between use of PPIs and risk for hypomagnesaemia remained significant (OR = 2.1; 95% CI: 1.54-2.85). While mortality was not directly related to low magnesium levels (p = 0.67), the length of hospitalisation was prolonged in these patients even after adjustment for underlying comorbid conditions (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION Use of PPIs predisposes patients to hypomagnesaemia and such to prolonged hospitalisation irrespective of the underlying morbidity, posing a critical concern.

Dear Brand, Please Help me to Become a True-Man Out of the Truman: The Role of Brand Authenticity

Although brand authenticity is gaining increasing interest in academia and managerial practice, empirical studies on its contribution to the branding literature are still limited. The authors therefore conceptually and empirically examine the emergence and outcomes of perceived brand authenticity (PBA). A prior multi-phase scale development process resulted in a 17-item PBA scale to measure its four dimensions of credibility, integrity, symbolism, and longevity. Brand authenticity perceptions are influenced by indexical, existential, and iconic cues, whereby the latter’s influence is moderated by consumers’ level of marketing skepticism. Further, PBA increases emotional brand attachment. This relationship is particularly strong for consumers with a high level of self-authenticity. In addition, PBA effects are stronger in a North American market context compared to a European context.

Translation of ERC resuscitation guidelines into clinical practice by emergency physicians

PURPOSE Austrian out-of-hospital emergency physicians (OOHEP) undergo mandatory biannual emergency physician refresher courses to maintain their licence. The purpose of this study was to compare different reported emergency skills and knowledge, recommended by the European Resuscitation Council (ERC) guidelines, between OOHEP who work regularly at an out-of-hospital emergency service and those who do not currently work as OOHEP but are licenced. METHODS We obtained data from 854 participants from 19 refresher courses. Demographics, questions about their practice and multiple-choice questions about ALS-knowledge were answered and analysed. We particularly explored the application of therapeutic hypothermia, intraosseous access, pocket guide use and knowledge about the participants' defibrillator in use. A multivariate logistic regression analysed differences between both groups of OOHEP. Age, gender, years of clinical experience, ERC-ALS provider course attendance and the self-reported number of resuscitations were control variables. RESULTS Licenced OOHEP who are currently employed in emergency service are significantly more likely to initiate intraosseous access (OR = 4.013, p < 0.01), they initiate mild-therapeutic hypothermia after successful resuscitation (OR = 2.550, p < 0.01) more often, and knowledge about the used defibrillator was higher (OR = 2.292, p < 0.01). No difference was found for the use of pocket guides.OOHEP who have attended an ERC-ALS provider course since 2005 have initiated more mild therapeutic hypothermia after successful resuscitation (OR = 1.670, p <0.05) as well as participants who resuscitated within the last year (OR = 2.324, p < 0.01), while older OOHEP initiated mild therapeutic hypothermia less often, measured per year of age (OR = 0.913, p <0.01). CONCLUSION Licenced and employed OOHEP implement ERC guidelines better into clinical practice, but more training on life-saving rescue techniques needs to be done to improve knowledge and to raise these rates of application.

Genomic knock-out of rancRNAs in the archaeon H. volcanii

As translation is the final step in gene expression it is particularly important to understand the processes involved in translation regulation. It was shown in the last years that a class of RNA, the non-protein-coding RNAs (ncRNAs), is involved in regulation of gene expression via various mechanisms [1]. Herein included is the prominent example of gene silencing caused by micro RNAs (miRNAs) and small interfering RNAs (siRNAs). Almost all of these ncRNA discovered so far target the mRNA in order to modulate protein biosynthesis, this is rather unexpected considering the crucial role of the ribosome during gene expression. However, recent data from our laboratory showed that there is a new class of RNAs among the well-studied ncRNAs that target the ribosome itself [2,3]. These so called ribosome-associated ncRNAs (rancRNAs) have an impact on translation regulation, mainly by interfering / modulating the rate of protein biosynthesis. Recent studies show the presence of small regulatory RNAs (sRNAs) in archaea which are involved in many biological processes including stress response and metabolic regulation [4]. To date the biological function and the targets of these archaeal sRNAs are only described for a few examples. There are reports of sRNAs binding to the 5’ as well as to the 3’ of mRNAs [5,6]. In addition to these findings, a tRNA derived fragment (tRF) of Valine tRNA was found in a genomic screen of RNAs associated with the ribosome in H. volcanii in our laboratory [3]. This Valine tRF seems to be processed in a stress-dependent manner and showed in vitro binding to the ribosome and inhibited in vitro translation. These results showed that Valine tRF is capable to regulate translation in H. volcanii by targeting the ribosome. The main goal of this project is to identify and describe novel potential regulatory rancRNAs in H. volcanii with the focus on intergenic candidates. Northern blot analyses already revealed interactions with the ribosome and showed differential expression patterns in response to stress conditions. To investigate the biological relevance of some of the ribosome-associated ncRNA candidates, knock-out and phenotypic characterization studies are done. The genomic knock out of a hypothetical ORF (198nt), where one putative rancRNA candidate (46nt) named IG33 was detected in the library at the beginning of the ORF, showed interesting growth phenotype under specific stress conditions. Furthermore a strain with an introduced start to stop codon mutation in this hypothetical ORF still shows the same phenotype indicating that rather the missing protein than the missing sRNA causes this growth phenotype.

Out-of-Body Experiences and Other Complex Dissociation Experiences in a Patient with Unilateral Peripheral Vestibular Damage and Deficient Multisensory Integration

Out-of-body experiences (OBEs) are illusory perceptions of one's body from an elevated disembodied perspective. Recent theories postulate a double disintegration process in the personal (visual, proprioceptive and tactile disintegration) and extrapersonal (visual and vestibular disintegration) space as the basis of OBEs. Here we describe a case which corroborates and extends this hypothesis. The patient suffered from peripheral vestibular damage and presented with OBEs and lucid dreams. Analysis of the patient's behaviour revealed a failure of visuo-vestibular integration and abnormal sensitivity to visuo-tactile conflicts that have previously been shown to experimentally induce out-of-body illusions (in healthy subjects). In light of these experimental findings and the patient's symptomatology we extend an earlier model of the role of vestibular signals in OBEs. Our results advocate the involvement of subcortical bodily mechanisms in the occurrence of OBEs.

Extracting more out of relocation data: building movement models as mixtures of random walks

We present a framework for fitting multiple random walks to animal movement paths consisting of ordered sets of step lengths and turning angles. Each step and turn is assigned to one of a number of random walks, each characteristic of a different behavioral state. Behavioral state assignments may be inferred purely from movement data or may include the habitat type in which the animals are located. Switching between different behavioral states may be modeled explicitly using a state transition matrix estimated directly from data, or switching probabilities may take into account the proximity of animals to landscape features. Model fitting is undertaken within a Bayesian framework using the WinBUGS software. These methods allow for identification of different movement states using several properties of observed paths and lead naturally to the formulation of movement models. Analysis of relocation data from elk released in east-central Ontario, Canada, suggests a biphasic movement behavior: elk are either in an "encamped" state in which step lengths are small and turning angles are high, or in an "exploratory" state, in which daily step lengths are several kilometers and turning angles are small. Animals encamp in open habitat (agricultural fields and opened forest), but the exploratory state is not associated with any particular habitat type.

The effect of the shift from HMO to PPO plans on the prevalence of hospital bad debt in the insured population: A case study in two Houston-area hospitals

In spite of the dramatic increase and general concern with U.S. hospital bad debt expense (AMNews, January 12, 2004; Philadelphia Business Journal, April 30, 2004; WSJ, July 23, 2004), there appears to be little available analysis of the precise sources and causes of its growth. This is particularly true in terms of the potential contribution of insured patients to bad debt expense in light of the recent shift in managed care from health maintenance organization (HMO) plans to preferred provider organization (PPO) plans (Kaiser Annual Survey Report, 2003). This study examines and attempts to explain the recent dramatic growth in bad debt expense by focusing on and analyzing data from two Houston-area hospital providers within one healthcare system. In contrast to prior studies in which self-pay was found to be the primary source of hospital bad debt expense (Saywell, R. M., et al., 1989; Zollinger, T. W., 1991; Weissman, Joel S., et al., 1999), this study hypothesizes that the growing hospital bad debt expense is mainly due to the shifting trend away from HMOs to PPOs as a conscious decision by employers to share costs with employees. Compared to HMO plans, the structure of PPOs includes higher co-pays, coinsurance, and deductibles for the patient-pay portion of medical bills, creating the potential for an increase in bad debt for hospital providers (from a case study). This bad debt expense has a greater impact in the community hospital than in the Texas Medical Center hospital. ^

Locus of control as a predictor of students dropping out of high school

Education is related to health. In cross-sectional data, education level has been associated with physical functioning. Also, lower levels of education have been associated with health behaviors including smoking, alcohol use, and greater body weight. In school, students may benefit from greater exposed to health-related messages, while students who have dropped out may be more susceptible to influences regarding negative health behaviors such as smoking. ^ Improved school retention might improve long-term health outcomes. However, there is limited evidence regarding modifiable factors that predict likelihood of dropping out. Two likely psychosocial measures are locus of control and parent-child academic conversations. In the current study, data from two waves of a population-based longitudinal survey, the National Education Longitudinal Survey, were utilized to evaluate whether these two psychosocial measures could predict likelihood of dropping out, for students (n = 16,749) in tenth grade at 1990, with dropout status determined at 1992, while controlling for recognized sociodemographic predictors including parental income, parental education level, race/ethnicity, and sex. Locus of control was measured with the Pearlin Mastery Scale, and parent-child academic conversations were measured by three questions concerning course selection at school, school activities and events, and things the student studied in class. ^ In a logistic regression model, with the sociodemographic control measures entered in a first step before entry of the psychosocial measures in a second step, this study determined that lower levels of locus of control were associated with greater likelihood of dropping out after two years (odds ratio (OR) = 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 108 to 1.15, p < .001), and two of the three parent-child academic discussion items were associated with greater likelihood of dropping out after two years (OR = 1.69, CI 1.48-1.93, p < .001; OR = 1.22, CI 1.05-1.41, p = .01; OR = 1.01, CI .88-1.15, p = .94). ^ It is possible that interventions aimed at improving locus of control, and aimed at building parent-child academic conversations, could lower the likelihood of students dropping out, and this in turn could yield improved heath behaviors and health status in the child's future. ^