Choice under Risk : Theory and Applications

Es útil para estudiantes de postgrado (Master y Doctorado) en cursos de Economía o de Microeconomía en los que se analicen problemas de Decisión en condiciones de Riesgo o Incertidumbre. El documento comienza explicando la Teoría de la Utilidad Esperada. A continuación se estudian la aversión al riesgo, los coeficientes de aversión absoluta y relativa al riesgo, la relación “más averso que” entre agentes económicos y los efectos riqueza sobre las decisiones en algunas relaciones de preferencia utilizadas frecuentemente en el análisis económico. La sección 4 se centra en la comparación entre alternativas arriesgadas en términos de rendimiento y riesgo, considerando la dominancia estocástica de primer y segundo orden y algunas extensiones posteriores de esas relaciones de orden. El documento concluye con doce ejercicios resueltos en los que se aplican los conceptos y resultados expuestos en las secciones anteriores a problemas de decisión en varios contextos

Acoustic Calculation for Supersonic Turbulent Boundary Layer Flow

An approach which combines direct numerical simulation (DNS) with the Lighthill acoustic analogy theory is used to study the potential noise sources during the transition process of a Mach 2.25 flat plate boundary layer. The quadrupole sound sources due to the flow fluctuations and the dipole sound sources due to the fluctuating surface stress are obtained. Numerical results suggest that formation of the high shear layers leads to a dramatic amplification of amplitude of the fluctuating quadrupole sound sources. Compared with the quadrupole sound source, the energy of dipole sound source is concentrated in the relatively low frequency range.

Investigation on average void fraction for air/non-Newtonian power-law fluids two-phase flow in downward inclined pipes

The present work has been carried out to investigate on the average void fraction of gas/non-Newtonian fluids flow in downward inclined pipes. The influences of pipe inclination angle on the average void fraction were studied experimentally. A simple correlation, which incorporated the method of Vlachos et al. for gas/Newtonain fluid horizontal flow, the correction factor of Farooqi and Richardson and the pipe inclination angle, was proposed to predict the average void fraction of gas/non-Newtonian power-law stratified flow in downward inclined pipes. The correlation was based on 470 data points covering a wide range of flow rates for different systems at diverse angles. A good agreement was obtained between theory and data and the fitting results could describe the majority of the experimental data within ±20%.

Electron flow through cytochrome P450

The cytochromes P450 (P450s) are a remarkable class of heme enzymes that catalyze the metabolism of xenobiotics and the biosynthesis of signaling molecules. Controlled electron flow into the thiolate-ligated heme active site allows P450s to activate molecular oxygen and hydroxylate aliphatic C–H bonds via the formation of high-valent metal-oxo intermediates (compounds I and II). Due to the reactive nature and short lifetimes of these intermediates, many of the fundamental steps in catalysis have not been observed directly. The Gray group and others have developed photochemical methods, known as “flash-quench,” for triggering electron transfer (ET) and generating redox intermediates in proteins in the absence of native ET partners. Photo-triggering affords a high degree of temporal precision for the gating of an ET event; the initial ET and subsequent reactions can be monitored on the nanosecond-to-second timescale using transient absorption (TA) spectroscopies. Chapter 1 catalogues critical aspects of P450 structure and mechanism, including the native pathway for formation of compound I, and outlines the development of photochemical processes that can be used to artificially trigger ET in proteins. Chapters 2 and 3 describe the development of these photochemical methods to establish electronic communication between a photosensitizer and the buried P450 heme. Chapter 2 describes the design and characterization of a Ru-P450-BM3 conjugate containing a ruthenium photosensitizer covalently tethered to the P450 surface, and nanosecond-to-second kinetics of the photo-triggered ET event are presented. By analyzing data at multiple wavelengths, we have identified the formation of multiple ET intermediates, including the catalytically relevant compound II; this intermediate is generated by oxidation of a bound water molecule in the ferric resting state enzyme. The work in Chapter 3 probes the role of a tryptophan residue situated between the photosensitizer and heme in the aforementioned Ru-P450 BM3 conjugate. Replacement of this tryptophan with histidine does not perturb the P450 structure, yet it completely eliminates the ET reactivity described in Chapter 2. The presence of an analogous tryptophan in Ru-P450 CYP119 conjugates also is necessary for observing oxidative ET, but the yield of heme oxidation is lower. Chapter 4 offers a basic description of the theoretical underpinnings required to analyze ET. Single-step ET theory is first presented, followed by extensions to multistep ET: electron “hopping.” The generation of “hopping maps” and use of a hopping map program to analyze the rate advantage of hopping over single-step ET is described, beginning with an established rhenium-tryptophan-azurin hopping system. This ET analysis is then applied to the Ru-tryptophan-P450 systems described in Chapter 2; this strongly supports the presence of hopping in Ru-P450 conjugates. Chapter 5 explores the implementation of flash-quench and other phototriggered methods to examine the native reductive ET and gas binding events that activate molecular oxygen. In particular, TA kinetics that demonstrate heme reduction on the microsecond timescale for four Ru-P450 conjugates are presented. In addition, we implement laser flash-photolysis of P450 ferrous–CO to study the rates of CO rebinding in the thermophilic P450 CYP119 at variable temperature. Chapter 6 describes the development and implementation of air-sensitive potentiometric redox titrations to determine the solution reduction potentials of a series of P450 BM3 mutants, which were designed for non-native cyclopropanation of styrene in vivo. An important conclusion from this work is that substitution of the axial cysteine for serine shifts the wild type reduction potential positive by 130 mV, facilitating reduction by biological redox cofactors in the presence of poorly-bound substrates. While this mutation abolishes oxygenation activity, these mutants are capable of catalyzing the cyclopropanation of styrene, even within the confines of an E. coli cell. Four appendices are also provided, including photochemical heme oxidation in ruthenium-modified nitric oxide synthase (Appendix A), general protocols (Appendix B), Chapter-specific notes (Appendix C) and Matlab scripts used for data analysis (Appendix D).

I. The effects of variations in certain parameters upon the efficiency of in vivo hemodialysis with a Kiil dialyzer. II. Interfacial structure of concurrent air-water flow in a two-inch diameter horizontal tube.

Part I

Regression analyses are performed on in vivo hemodialysis data for the transfer of creatinine, urea, uric acid and inorganic phosphate to determine the effects of variations in certain parameters on the efficiency of dialysis with a Kiil dialyzer. In calculating the mass transfer rates across the membrane, the effects of cell-plasma mass transfer kinetics are considered. The concept of the effective permeability coefficient for the red cell membrane is introduced to account for these effects. A discussion of the consequences of neglecting cell-plasma kinetics, as has been done to date in the literature, is presented.

A physical model for the Kiil dialyzer is presented in order to calculate the available membrane area for mass transfer, the linear blood and dialysate velocities, and other variables. The equations used to determine the independent variables of the regression analyses are presented. The potential dependent variables in the analyses are discussed.

Regression analyses were carried out considering overall mass-transfer coefficients, dialysances, relative dialysances, and relative permeabilities for each substance as the dependent variables. The independent variables were linear blood velocity, linear dialysate velocity, the pressure difference across the membrane, the elapsed time of dialysis, the blood hematocrit, and the arterial plasma concentrations of each substance transferred. The resulting correlations are tabulated, presented graphically, and discussed. The implications of these correlations are discussed from the viewpoint of a research investigator and from the viewpoint of patient treatment.

Recommendations for further experimental work are presented.

Part II

The interfacial structure of concurrent air-water flow in a two-inch diameter horizontal tube in the wavy flow regime has been measured using resistance wave gages. The median water depth, r.m.s. wave height, wave frequency, extrema frequency, and wave velocity have been measured as functions of air and water flow rates. Reynolds numbers, Froude numbers, Weber numbers, and bulk velocities for each phase may be calculated from these measurements. No theory for wave formation and propagation available in the literature was sufficient to describe these results.

The water surface level distribution generally is not adequately represented as a stationary Gaussian process. Five types of deviation from the Gaussian process function were noted in this work. The presence of the tube walls and the relatively large interfacial shear stresses precludes the use of simple statistical analyses to describe the interfacial structure. A detailed study of the behavior of individual fluid elements near the interface may be necessary to describe adequately wavy two-phase flow in systems similar to the one used in this work.

Theory of viscous and thermal attenuation of sound by small spheres

The problem is to calculate the attenuation of plane sound waves passing through a viscous, heat-conducting fluid containing small spherical inhomogeneities. The attenuation is calculated by evaluating the rate of increase of entropy caused by two irreversible processes: (1) the mechanical work done by the viscous stresses in the presence of velocity gradients, and (2) the flow of heat down the thermal gradients. The method is first applied to a homogeneous fluid with no spheres and shown to give the classical Stokes-Kirchhoff expressions. The method is then used to calculate the additional viscous and thermal attenuation when small spheres are present. The viscous attenuation agrees with Epstein's result obtained in 1941 for a non-heat-conducting fluid. The thermal attenuation is found to be similar in form to the viscous attenuation and, for gases, of comparable magnitude. The general results are applied to the case of water drops in air and air bubbles in water.

For water drops in air the viscous and thermal attenuations are camparable; the thermal losses occur almost entirely in the air, the thermal dissipation in the water being negligible. The theoretical values are compared with Knudsen's experimental data for fogs and found to agree in order of magnitude and dependence on frequency. For air bubbles in water the viscous losses are negligible and the calculated attenuation is almost completely due to thermal losses occurring in the air inside the bubbles, the thermal dissipation in the water being relatively small. (These results apply only to non-resonant bubbles whose radius changes but slightly during the acoustic cycle.)

Essays in revealed preference theory and behavioral economics

Time, risk, and attention are all integral to economic decision making. The aim of this work is to understand those key components of decision making using a variety of approaches: providing axiomatic characterizations to investigate time discounting, generating measures of visual attention to infer consumers' intentions, and examining data from unique field settings.

Chapter 2, co-authored with Federico Echenique and Kota Saito, presents the first revealed-preference characterizations of exponentially-discounted utility model and its generalizations. My characterizations provide non-parametric revealed-preference tests. I apply the tests to data from a recent experiment, and find that the axiomatization delivers new insights on a dataset that had been analyzed by traditional parametric methods.

Chapter 3, co-authored with Min Jeong Kang and Colin Camerer, investigates whether "pre-choice" measures of visual attention improve in prediction of consumers' purchase intentions. We measure participants' visual attention using eyetracking or mousetracking while they make hypothetical as well as real purchase decisions. I find that different patterns of visual attention are associated with hypothetical and real decisions. I then demonstrate that including information on visual attention improves prediction of purchase decisions when attention is measured with mousetracking.

Chapter 4 investigates individuals' attitudes towards risk in a high-stakes environment using data from a TV game show, Jeopardy!. I first quantify players' subjective beliefs about answering questions correctly. Using those beliefs in estimation, I find that the representative player is risk averse. I then find that trailing players tend to wager more than "folk" strategies that are known among the community of contestants and fans, and this tendency is related to their confidence. I also find gender differences: male players take more risk than female players, and even more so when they are competing against two other male players.

Chapter 5, co-authored with Colin Camerer, investigates the dynamics of the favorite-longshot bias (FLB) using data on horse race betting from an online exchange that allows bettors to trade "in-play." I find that probabilistic forecasts implied by market prices before start of the races are well-calibrated, but the degree of FLB increases significantly as the events approach toward the end.

A kinetic theory description for external spherical flows with arbitrary Knudsen number by a moment method

The Maxwell integral equations of transfer are applied to a series of problems involving flows of arbitrary density gases about spheres. As suggested by Lees a two sided Maxwellian-like weighting function containing a number of free parameters is utilized and a sufficient number of partial differential moment equations is used to determine these parameters. Maxwell's inverse fifth-power force law is used to simplify the evaluation of the collision integrals appearing in the moment equations. All flow quantities are then determined by integration of the weighting function which results from the solution of the differential moment system. Three problems are treated: the heat-flux from a slightly heated sphere at rest in an infinite gas; the velocity field and drag of a slowly moving sphere in an unbounded space; the velocity field and drag torque on a slowly rotating sphere. Solutions to the third problem are found to both first and second-order in surface Mach number with the secondary centrifugal fan motion being of particular interest. Singular aspects of the moment method are encountered in the last two problems and an asymptotic study of these difficulties leads to a formal criterion for a "well posed" moment system. The previously unanswered question of just how many moments must be used in a specific problem is now clarified to a great extent.

High frequency wave propagation in the earth: theory and observation

The wave-theoretical analysis of acoustic and elastic waves refracted by a spherical boundary across which both velocity and density increase abruptly and thence either increase or decrease continuously with depth is formulated in terms of the general problem of waves generated at a steady point source and scattered by a radially heterogeneous spherical body. A displacement potential representation is used for the elastic problem that results in high frequency decoupling of P-SV motion in a spherically symmetric, radially heterogeneous medium. Through the application of an earth-flattening transformation on the radial solution and the Watson transform on the sum over eigenfunctions, the solution to the spherical problem for high frequencies is expressed as a Weyl integral for the corresponding half-space problem in which the effect of boundary curvature maps into an effective positive velocity gradient. The results of both analytical and numerical evaluation of this integral can be summarized as follows for body waves in the crust and upper mantle:

1) In the special case of a critical velocity gradient (a gradient equal and opposite to the effective curvature gradient), the critically refracted wave reduces to the classical head wave for flat, homogeneous layers.

2) For gradients more negative than critical, the amplitude of the critically refracted wave decays more rapidly with distance than the classical head wave.

3) For positive, null, and gradients less negative than critical, the amplitude of the critically refracted wave decays less rapidly with distance than the classical head wave, and at sufficiently large distances, the refracted wave can be adequately described in terms of ray-theoretical diving waves. At intermediate distances from the critical point, the spectral amplitude of the refracted wave is scalloped due to multiple diving wave interference.

These theoretical results applied to published amplitude data for P-waves refracted by the major crustal and upper mantle horizons (the Pg, P*, and Pn travel-time branches) suggest that the 'granitic' upper crust, the 'basaltic' lower crust, and the mantle lid all have negative or near-critical velocity gradients in the tectonically active western United States. On the other hand, the corresponding horizons in the stable eastern United States appear to have null or slightly positive velocity gradients. The distribution of negative and positive velocity gradients correlates closely with high heat flow in tectonic regions and normal heat flow in stable regions. The velocity gradients inferred from the amplitude data are generally consistent with those inferred from ultrasonic measurements of the effects of temperature and pressure on crustal and mantle rocks and probable geothermal gradients. A notable exception is the strong positive velocity gradient in the mantle lid beneath the eastern United States (2 x 10^-3 sec^-1), which appears to require a compositional gradient to counter the effect of even a small geothermal gradient.

New seismic-refraction data were recorded along a 800 km profile extending due south from the Canadian border across the Columbia Plateau into eastern Oregon. The source for the seismic waves was a series of 20 high-energy chemical explosions detonated by the Canadian government in Greenbush Lake, British Columbia. The first arrivals recorded along this profile are on the Pn travel-time branch. In northern Washington and central Oregon their travel time is described by T = Δ/8.0 + 7.7 sec, but in the Columbia Plateau the Pn arrivals are as much as 0.9 sec early with respect to this line. An interpretation of these Pn arrivals together with later crustal arrivals suggest that the crust under the Columbia Plateau is thinner by about 10 km and has a higher average P-wave velocity than the 35-km-thick, 62-km/sec crust under the granitic-metamorphic terrain of northern Washington. A tentative interpretation of later arrivals recorded beyond 500 km from the shots suggests that a thin 8.4-km/sec horizon may be present in the upper mantle beneath the Columbia Plateau and that this horizon may form the lid to a pronounced low-velocity zone extending to a depth of about 140 km.

MEAN FLOW EFFECTS OF THE LOW-WAVENUMBER PRESSURE SPECTRUM ON A FLEXIBLE SURFACE.

The Lighthill theory is extended so that it may be used to determine the flow noise induced by a turbulent boundary layer over a plane homogeneous flexible surface. The influence of the surface properties and the mean flow on the sound generation is brought out explicitly through the use of a Green function. The form of the low-wavenumber wall-pressure spectrum on a rigid surface with an arbitrary mean flow profile is determined. The effect of a coating layer is investigated.

Fluid-structure interaction with mean flow: Over-scattering and unstable resonance growth

It is known theoretically [1-3] that infinitely long fluid loaded plates in mean flow exhibit a range of unusual phenomena in the 'long time' limit. These include convective instability, absolute instability and negative energy waves which are destabilized by dissipation. However, structures are necessarily of finite length and may have discontinuities. Moreover, linear instability waves can only grow over a limited number of cycles before non-linear effects become dominant. We have undertaken an analytical and computational study to investigate the response of finite, discontinuous plates to ascertain if these unusual effects might be realized in practice. Analytically, we take a "wave scattering" [2,4] - as opposed to a "modal superposition" [5] - view of the fluttering plate problem. First, we solve for the scattering coefficients of localized plate discontinuities and identify a range of parameter space, well outside the convective instability regime, where over-scattering or amplified reflection/transmission occurs. These are scattering processes that draw energy from the mean flow into the plate. Next, we use the Wiener-Hopf technique to solve for the scattering coefficients from the leading and trailing edges of a baffled plate. Finally, we construct the response of a finite, baffled plate by a superposition of infinite plate propagating waves continuously scattering off the plate ends and solve for the unstable resonance frequencies and temporal growth rates for long plates. We present a comparison between our computational results and the infinite plate theory. In particular, the resonance response of a moderately sized plate is shown to be in excellent agreement with our long plate analytical predictions. Copyright © 2010 by ASME.

Effect of flow-geometry on turbulence-scalar interaction in premixed flames

Turbulent combustion of stoichiometric hydrogen-air mixture is simulated using direct numerical simulation methodology, employing complex chemical kinetics. Two flame configurations, freely propagating and V-flames stabilized behind a hot rod, are simulated. The results are analyzed to study the influence of flame configuration on the turbulence-scalar interaction, which is critical for the scalar gradient generation processes. The result suggests that this interaction process is not influenced by the flame configuration and the flame normal is found to align with the most extensive strain in the region of intense heat release. The combustion in the rod stabilized flame is found to be flamelet like in an average sense and the growth of flame-brush thickness with the downstream distance is represented well by Taylor theory of turbulent diffusion, when the flame-brushes are non-interacting. The thickness is observed to saturate when the flame-brushes interact, which is found to occur in the simulated rod stabilized flame with Taylor micro-scale Reynolds number of 97. © 2011 American Institute of Physics.

Modelling and validation of wet steam flow in a low pressure steam turbine

Results of numerical investigations of the wet steam flow in a three stage low pressure steam turbine test rig are presented. The test rig is a scale model of a modern steam turbine design and provides flow measurements over a range of operating conditions which are used for detailed comparisons with the numerical results. For the numerical analysis a modern CFD code with user defined models for specific wet steam modelling is used. The effect of different theoretical models for nucleation and droplet growth are examined. It is shown that heterogeneous condensation is highly dependent on steam quality and, in this model turbine with high quality steam, a homogeneous theory appears to be the best choice. The homogeneous theory gives good agreement between the test rig traverse measurements and the numerical results. The differences in the droplet size distribution of the three stage turbine are shown for different loads and modelling assumptions. The different droplet growth models can influence the droplet size by a factor of two. An estimate of the influence of unsteady effects is made by means of an unsteady two-dimensional simulation. The unsteady modelling leads to a shift of nucleation into the next blade row. For the investigated three stage turbine the influence due to wake chopping on the condensation process is weak but to confirm this conclusion further investigations are needed in complete three dimensions and on turbines with more stages. Copyright © 2011 by ASME.