Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Body weight as an indicator of fat-free mass in active elderly women

Objective: Fat-free mass (FFM) reduction and the tendency for a reduction in surrounding fatty issue and increase in the middle are a natural consequence of growing old and should be studied in order to gain a better understanding of the aging process. This study set out to find the FFM differences between active elderly women in two age groups (60-69 and 70-80 years) and to determine which of the anthropometric measurements, body weight (BW), abdominal circumference (AC), or body mass index (BMI) are the best predictors of FFM variation within the group. Methods: Eighty-one (n = 81) active elderly women of the Third Age willingly signed up to participate in the research during the activities at the University of the Third Age (UTA) in Brazil. The research was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the Faculty of Medical Sciences of the State University of Campinas (UNICAMP). Body weight (BW), height (H) and the BMI were measured according to the international standards. The AC was measured in centimetres at the H of the navel and body composition was ascertained using bioimpedance analysis. The SAS program was used to perform the statistical analysis of independent samples and parametric data. Results: The results showed FFM values with significant differences between the two groups, with the lowest values occurring among the women who were over 70 years of age. In the analysis, the Pearson`s Correlation Coefficient for each measured independent variable was ascertained, with the BW measurement showing the highest ratio (0.900). Conclusions: The BW measurement was regarded as reliable, low-cost and easy to use for monitoring FFM in elderly women who engage in physical activities. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of flow regimes in a semi-cylindrical spouted bed through statistical, mutual information, spectral and Hurst`s analysis

Hydrodynamic studies were conducted in a semi-cylindrical spouted bed column of diameter 150 mm, height 1000 mm, conical base included angle of 60 degrees and inlet orifice diameter 25 mm. Pressure transducers at several axial positions were used to obtain pressure fluctuation time series with 1.2 and 2.4 mm glass beads at U/U-ms from 0.3 to 1.6, and static bed depths from 150 to 600 mm. The conditions covered several flow regimes (fixed bed, incipient spouting, stable spouting, pulsating spouting, slugging, bubble spouting and fluidization). Images of the system dynamics were also acquired through the transparent walls with a digital camera. The data were analyzed via statistical, mutual information theory, spectral and Hurst`s Rescaled Range methods to assess the potential of these methods to characterize the spouting quality. The results indicate that these methods have potential for monitoring spouted bed operation.

Fluoride ingestion from food items and dentifrice in 2-6-year-old Brazilian children living in a fluoridated area using a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire

Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate the fluoride intake of 2-6-year-old Brazilian children using a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) which also estimated fluoride intake from dentifrice. Methods: The FFQ was previously validated through application to 78 2-6-year-old Brazilian children and then administered to 379 children residing in an optimally fluoridated community in Brazil (Bauru, State of Sao Paulo). The FFQ was applied to the parents and used to estimate the food intake of the children. The constituents of the diet were divided into solids, water and other beverages. The fluoride content of the diet items was analyzed with the fluoride electrode. The questionnaire also estimated fluoride intake from dentifrice. Results: The average (+/- SD) fluoride intake from solids, water, other beverages and dentifrice was 0.008 +/- 0.005; 0.011 +/- 0.004; 0.009 +/- 0.014 and 0.036 +/- 0.028 mg F/kg body weight/day, respectively, totalizing 0.064 +/- 0.035 mg F/kg body weight/day. The dentifrice and the diet contributed with 56.3% and 43.7% of the daily fluoride intake, respectively. Among the children evaluated, 31.2% are estimated to have risk to develop dental fluorosis (intake > 0.07 mg F/kg body weight/day). Conclusions: The dentifrice was the main source of fluoride intake by the children evaluated. However, the fluoride concentration in food items also significantly contributed to the daily ingestion by 2-6-year-old children. The questionnaire used seems to be a promising alternative to duplicate diet to estimate the fluoride intake at this age range and may have potential to be used in broad epidemiological surveys.

Correlation of habitual physical activity levels with flow mediated dilation of the brachial artery in 5-10 year old children

Endothelial dysfunction is an early key event of atherogenesis. Both fitness level and exercise intervention have been shown to positively influence endothelial function. In a cross-sectional study of 47 children, the relationship between habitual physical activity and flow-mediated dilation (FMD) of the brachial artery was explored. Habitual physical activity levels (PALs) were assessed using a validated stable isotope technique, and FMD of the brachial artery was measured via high-resolution ultrasound. The results showed that habitual physical activity significantly correlated with FMD (r=0.39, P=0.007), and remained the most influential variable on dilation in multivariate analysis. Although both fitness level and exercise intervention have previously been shown to positively influence FMD, this is the first time that a relationship with normal PALs has been investigated, especially, at such a young age. These data support the concept that physical activity exerts its protective effect on cardiovascular health via the endothelium and add further emphasis to the importance of physical activity in childhood.

Habitual physical activity and physical activity intensity: their relation to body composition in 5.0-10.5 year old children

Background: Concerns of a decrease in physical activity levels (PALs) of children and a concurrent increase in childhood obesity exist worldwide. The exact relation between these two parameters however has as yet to be fully defined in children. Objective: This study examined the relation in 47 children, aged 5–10.5 y (mean age 8.4plusminus0.9 y) between habitual physical activity, minutes spent in moderate, vigorous and hard intensity activity and body composition parameters. Design: Total energy expenditure (TEE) was calculated using the doubly labelled water technique and basal metabolic rate (BMR) was predicted from Schofield's equations. PAL was determined by PAL=TEE/BMR. Time spent in moderate, vigorous and hard intensity activity was determined by accelerometry, using the Tritrac-R3D. Body fatness and body mass index (BMI) were used as the two measures of body composition. Results: Body fat and BMI were significantly inversely correlated with PAL (r=-0.43, P=0.002 and r=-0.45, P=0.001). Times spent in vigorous activity and hard activity were significantly correlated to percentage body fat (r=-0.44, P=0.004 and r=-0.39, P=0.014), but not BMI. Children who were in the top tertiles for both vigorous activity and hard activity had significantly lower body fat percentages than those in the middle and lowest tertiles. Moderate intensity activity was not correlated with measures of body composition. Conclusions: As well as showing a significant relation between PAL and body composition, these data intimate that there may be a threshold of intensity of physical activity that is influential on body fatness. In light of world trends showing increasing childhood obesity, this study supports the need to further investigate the importance of physical activity for children.

Parameter setting and statistical learning

Three main models of parameter setting have been proposed: the Variational model proposed by Yang (2002; 2004), the Structured Acquisition model endorsed by Baker (2001; 2005), and the Very Early Parameter Setting (VEPS) model advanced by Wexler (1998). The VEPS model contends that parameters are set early. The Variational model supposes that children employ statistical learning mechanisms to decide among competing parameter values, so this model anticipates delays in parameter setting when critical input is sparse, and gradual setting of parameters. On the Structured Acquisition model, delays occur because parameters form a hierarchy, with higher-level parameters set before lower-level parameters. Assuming that children freely choose the initial value, children sometimes will miss-set parameters. However when that happens, the input is expected to trigger a precipitous rise in one parameter value and a corresponding decline in the other value. We will point to the kind of child language data that is needed in order to adjudicate among these competing models.

(FAB12_1_002) 'Would you know the new, you must search the old': William Lethaby's 'Architecture, Mysticism and Myth' (1891) and the 'Hypnerotomachia Poliphili' (1499)

Published in the final months of 1891, Architecture, Mysticism and Myth was the first architectural treatise written by the late nineteenth-century English architect and theorist William Richard Lethaby (1857-1931).' Documenting the characteristic attributes of the architectural myth of the "temple idea", and its presence amongst architectures of multiple ancient cultures, the text was endowed with a distinctly historical tone. In examining the motives behind myth, which Lethaby defined as the interaction and reaction between the natural universe and the built environment, Lethaby also injected a series of theoretical considerations into the text. It is clear that Lethaby's interest in the temple idea was not limited to its curious, prolific presence in past architectures, hut also embraced a consideration of what lessons the temple idea may contribute to the struggle of the late nineteenth-century English architect to define an "art of the future".

Factors influencing wound healing after surgery for metastatic disease of the spine

Study Design, The study group consisted of 53 patients who underwent 75 operations for spine metastases. Patient and tumor demographic factors, preoperative nutritional status, and perioperative adjunctive therapy were retrospectively reviewed. Objective, To determine the risk factors for wound breakdown and infection in patients undergoing surgery for spinal metastases. Summary of Background Data. Spinal Fusion using spine implants may be associated with an infection rate of 5% or more. Surgery for spine metastases is associated with an infection rate of more than 10%. Factors other than the type of surgery performed may account for the greater infection rate. Methods. Data were obtained by reviewing patient records. Age, sex, and neurologic status of the patient; tumor type and site; and surgical details were noted. Adjunctive treatment with corticosteroids and radiotherapy was recorded, Nutritional status was evaluated by determining serum protein and serum albumin concentrations and by total lymphocyte count. Results. Wound breakdown and Infection occurred in 75 of 75 wounds. No patient or tumor demographic factors other than intraoperative blood loss (P < 0.1) were statistically associated with infection; The correlation between preoperative protein deficiency (P < 0.01) or perioperative corticosteroid administration (P < 0.10) and wound infection was significant. There was no statistical correlation between lymphocyte count or perioperative radiotherapy and wound infection. Conclusions, The results indicate that preoperative protein depletion and perioperative administration of corticosteroids are risk factors for wound infection in patients undergoing surgery for spine metastases, Perioperative correction of nutritional depletion and cessation of steroid therapy may reduce wound complications.

An evaluation of the Keep on Talking program for maintaining communication skills into old

Communication skills change with age as a result of sensory deficits, memory loss, and increasing word finding difficulties The Keep on Talking program (L. Hickson, H. Barnett, L. Worrall, & E. Yiu, 1994) was developed to assist older people to develop their own strategies for maintaining communication skills into old age. Two hundred and fifty-two healthy older people were recruited from the community and were assessed on a battery of communication assessments on entry to the study and at 1 year after entry. The experimental group (n = 120) participated in the 5-week group Keep on Talking program run by volunteers A further 130 control subjects were assessed only. The short-term effectiveness of the program was evaluated using a short knowledge based and attitudinal questionnaire and qualitative written feedback. At the I-year follow up, subjects were also asked whether they had taken any action as a result of the project. Results concluded that there was a significant difference between the number of correct questionnaire responses on the knowledge based items and the ratings on the attitudinal items pre- and postprogram questionnaire for the experimental subjects. Qualitative written feedback was positive with many participants remarking on the amount of information that they had acquired. Forty-eight experimental and 69 control subjects (n = 117) were assessed I year later, and there was a significant difference between the groups in terms of the number of subjects who reported having taken action as a result of the program. The Keep on Talking program increased knowledge about communication, produced a positive change in attitude toward the importance of communication, and encouraged participants to take action to maintain their communication skills. Maintaining communication skills may prevent social isolation. This simple 5-hour group program has been effective in empowering participants to maintain. their communication skills as they age.