Rebound and disinvestment effects in oil consumption and supply resulting from an increase in energy efficiency in the Scottish commercial transport sector

In this paper we use an energy-economy-environment computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Scottish economy to examine the impacts of an exogenous increase in energy augmenting technological progress in the domestic commercial Transport sector on the supply and use of energy. We focus our analysis on oil, as the main type of energy input used in commercial transport activity. We find that a 5% increase in energy efficiency in the commercial Transport sector leads to rebound effects in the use of oil-based energy commodities in all time periods, in the target sector and at the economy-wide level. However, our results also suggest that such an efficiency improvement may cause a contraction in capacity in the Scottish oil supply sector. This ‘disinvestment effect’ acts as a constraint on the size of rebound effects. However, the magnitude of rebound effects and presence of the disinvestment effect in the simulations conducted here are sensitive to the specification of key elasticities of substitution in the nested production function for the target sector, particularly the substitutability of energy for non-energy intermediate inputs to production.

North Sea Oil and Genuine Saving in the Scottish Economy

The World Bank has published estimates of sustainability of consumption paths by adjusting saving rates to take account of the depletion of non-renewable resources. During the period of North Sea oil production Scotland has been in a fiscal union with the rest of the UK. The present paper adjusts the World Bank data to produce separate genuine saving estimates for Scotland and the rest of the UK for 1970-2009, based on a ‘derivation’ principle for oil revenues. The calculations indicate that Scotland has had a negative genuine saving rate for most of the period of exploitation of North Sea oil resources, with genuine saving being positive in the rest of the UK during this period.

North Sea Oil and Genuine Saving in the Scottish Economy

The World Bank has published estimates of sustainability of consumption paths by adjusting saving rates to take account of the depletion of non-renewable resources. During the period of North Sea oil production Scotland has been in a fiscal union with the rest of the UK. The present paper adjusts the World Bank data to produce separate genuine saving estimates for Scotland and the rest of the UK for 1970-2009, based on a ‘derivation’ principle for oil revenues. The calculations indicate that Scotland has had a negative genuine saving rate for most of the period of exploitation of North Sea oil resources, with genuine saving being positive in the rest of the UK during this period.

Postmortem computed tomography angiography, contrast medium administration and toxicological analyses in urine.

Postmortem angiography methods that use water soluble or lipid soluble liquid contrast compounds may potentially modify the composition of fluid-based biological samples and thus influence toxicological findings. In this study, we investigated whether toxicological investigations performed in urine collected prior to and post angiography using Angiofil? mixed with paraffin oil are characterized by different qualitative or quantitative results. In addition, we studied whether diluting samples with 1% and 3% contrast medium solution may modify molecule concentration. A postmortem angiography group consisting of 50 cases and a postmortem group without angiography consisting of 50 cases were formed. In the first group, toxicological investigations were performed in urine samples collected prior to and post angiography as well as in undiluted and diluted samples. In the second group, analyses were performed in undiluted and diluted urine, bile, gastric content, cerebrospinal and pericardial fluids collected during autopsy. The preliminary results indicate that differences may be observed between urine samples collected prior to and post angiography in the number of identified molecules in relation to specific cases. Analyses performed in diluted samples failed to reveal differences that might potentially alter the interpretation of toxicological results in all analyzed specimens for nearly all molecules, except for tetrahydrocannabinol and its metabolites. Though these findings suggest that toxicology might be effectively performed, in very special cases and for a large number of molecules, in biological samples collected after angiography, it remains recommendable to collect biological fluids for toxicology prior to contrast medium injection.

Linkages of dietary patterns, international trade and land use: the case of olive oil in the European Union

Within only two decades olive oil developed from a niche product which could hardly be found in food stores outside the producing regions towards an integrated component in the diets of industrial countries. This paper discusses the impacts of the promotion of the “healthy Mediterranean diet” on land use and agro-ecosystems in the producing countries. It examines the dynamics of olive oil production, trade and consumption in the EU15 in the period 1972 to 2003 and the links between dietary patterns, trade and land use. It analyses the underlying socio-economic driving forces behind the increasing spatial disconnect between production and consumption of olive oil in the EU15 and in particular in Spain, the world largest producer during the last three decades. In the observed period olive oil consumption increased 16 fold in the non-producing EU15 countries. In the geographically limited producing regions like Spain, the 5 fold increase in export production was associated with the rapid industrialization of olive production, the conversion of vast Mediterranean landscapes to olive monocultures and a range of environmental pressures. High amounts of subsidies of the European Common Agricultural Policy and feedback loops within production and consumption systems were driving the transformation of the olive oil system. Our analysis indicates the process of change was not immediately driven by increases in demand for olive oil in non-producing countries, but rather by the institutional setting of the European Union and by concerted political interventions.

Oil price shocks and labor market fluctuations

We examine the impact of real oil price shocks on labor market flows in the U.S. We first use smooth transition regression (STR) models to investigate to what extent oil prices can be considered as a driving force of labor market fluctuations. Then we develop and calibrate a modified version of Pissarides' (2000) model with energy costs, which we simulate in response to shocks mimicking the behavior of the actual oil price shocks. We find that (i) these shocks are an important driving force of job market flows; (ii) the job finding probability is the main transmission mechanism of such shocks; and (iii) they bring a new amplification mechanism for the volatility and should thus be seen as complementary of labor productivity shocks. Overall we conclude that shocks in oil prices cannot be neglected in explaining cyclical labor adjustments in the U.S.

The Role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a framework that explicitly accounts for policymakers' uncertainty about the channels of transmission of oil prices into the economy. More specfically, I examine the robust response to the real price of oil that US monetary authorities would have been recommended to implement in the period 1970 2009; had they used the approach proposed by Cogley and Sargent (2005b) to incorporate model uncertainty and learning into policy decisions. In this context, I investigate the extent to which regulator' changing beliefs over different models of the economy play a role in the policy selection process. The main conclusion of this work is that, in the specific environment under analysis, one of the underlying models dominates the optimal interest rate response to oil prices. This result persists even when alternative assumptions on the model's priors change the pattern of the relative posterior probabilities, and can thus be attributed to the presence of model uncertainty itself.

Conversion of membrane-bound Fas(CD95) ligand to its soluble form is associated with downregulation of its proapoptotic activity and loss of liver toxicity.

Human Fas ligand (L) (CD95L) and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha undergo metalloproteinase-mediated proteolytic processing in their extracellular domains resulting in the release of soluble trimeric ligands (soluble [s]FasL, sTNF-alpha) which, in the case of sFasL, is thought to be implicated in diseases such as hepatitis and AIDS. Here we show that the processing of sFasL occurs between Ser126 and Leu127. The apoptotic-inducing capacity of naturally processed sFasL was reduced by >1,000-fold compared with membrane-bound FasL, and injection of high doses of recombinant sFasL in mice did not induce liver failure. However, soluble FasL retained its capacity to interact with Fas, and restoration of its cytotoxic activity was achieved both in vitro and in vivo with the addition of cross-linking antibodies. Similarly, the marginal apoptotic activity of recombinant soluble TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (sTRAIL), another member of the TNF ligand family, was greatly increased upon cross-linking. These results indicate that the mere trimerization of the Fas and TRAIL receptors may not be sufficient to trigger death signals. Thus, the observation that sFasL is less cytotoxic than membrane-bound FasL may explain why in certain types of cancer, systemic tissue damage is not detected, even though the levels of circulating sFasL are high.

Circulating soluble CR1 (CD35). Serum levels in diseases and evidence for its release by human leukocytes.

C receptor type 1 (CR1, CD35) is present in a soluble form in plasma (sCR1). Soluble CR1 was measured with a specific ELISA assay in normal individuals and in patients with different diseases. The mean serum concentration of sCR1 in 31 normal donors was 31.4 +/- 7.8 ng/ml, and was identical in plasma. An increase in sCR1 was observed in 36 patients with end-stage renal failure on dialysis (54.8 +/- 11.7 ng/ml, p < 0.0001), and in 22 patients with liver cirrhosis (158.3 +/- 49.9 ng/ml, p < 0.0001). The mean sCR1 levels dropped from 181 +/- 62.7 to 52.1 +/- 24.0 ng/ml (p < 0.001) in nine patients who underwent liver transplantation, and was 33.5 +/- 7.3 in 10 patients with functioning renal grafts, indicating that the increase in sCR1 was reversible. Soluble CR1 was elevated in some hematologic malignancies (> 47 ng/ml), which included B cell lymphoma (12/19 patients), Hodgkin's lymphoma (4/4), and chronic myeloproliferative syndromes (4/5). By contrast, no increase was observed in acute myeloid or lymphoblastic leukemia (10) or myeloma (5). In two patients with chronic myeloproliferative syndromes, sCR1 decreased rapidly after chemotherapy. The mean concentration of sCR1 was not significantly modified in 181 HIV-infected patients at various stages of the disease (34.8 +/- 14.4 ng/ml), and in 13 patients with active SLE (38.3 +/- 19.6 ng/ml), although in both groups the number of CR1 was diminished on E. There was a weak but significant correlation between sCR1 and CR1 per E in HIV infection and SLE (r = 0.39, p < 0.0001, and r = 0.60, p < 0.03 respectively). In vitro, monocytes, lymphocytes, and neutrophils were found to release sCR1 into culture supernatants. In vivo, sCR1 was detected in the serum of SCID mice populated with human peripheral blood leukocytes. The sCR1 levels correlated with those of human IgG (r = 0.97, p < 0.0001), suggesting synthesis of sCR1 by the transferred lymphocytes. The mechanisms underlining the increased levels of sCR1 and its biologic consequences remain to be defined.

Policy evaluation and uncertainty about the effects of oil prices on economic activity

This paper addresses the issue of policy evaluation in a context in which policymakers are uncertain about the effects of oil prices on economic performance. I consider models of the economy inspired by Solow (1980), Blanchard and Gali (2007), Kim and Loungani (1992) and Hamilton (1983, 2005), which incorporate different assumptions on the channels through which oil prices have an impact on economic activity. I first study the characteristics of the model space and I analyze the likelihood of the different specifications. I show that the existence of plausible alternative representations of the economy forces the policymaker to face the problem of model uncertainty. Then, I use the Bayesian approach proposed by Brock, Durlauf and West (2003, 2007) and the minimax approach developed by Hansen and Sargent (2008) to integrate this form of uncertainty into policy evaluation. I find that, in the environment under analysis, the standard Taylor rule is outperformed under a number of criteria by alternative simple rules in which policymakers introduce persistence in the policy instrument and respond to changes in the real price of oil.

Immunization with PIII, a fraction of Schistosoma mansoni soluble adult worm antigenic preparation, affects nitric oxide production by murine spleen cells

Nitric oxide (NO) is an important effector molecule involved in immune regulation and defense. NO produced by cytokine-activated macrophages was reported to be cytotoxic against the helminth Schistosoma mansoni. Identification and characterization of S. mansoni antigens that can provide protective immunity is crucial for understanding the complex immunoregulatory events that modulate the immune response in schistosomiasis. It is, then, essential to have available defined, purified parasite antigens. Previous work by our laboratory identified a fraction of S. mansoni soluble adult worm antigenic preparation (SWAP), named PIII, able to elicit significant in vitro cell proliferation and at the same time lower in vitro and in vivo granuloma formation when compared either to SEA (soluble egg antigen) or to SWAP. In the present work we report the effect of different in vivo trials with mice on their spleen cells ability to produce NO. We demonstrate that PIII-immunization is able to significantly increase NO production by spleen cells after in vitro stimulation with LPS. These data suggest a possible role for NO on the protective immunity induced by PIII.

Dietary fish oil is antihypertrophic but does not enhance postischemic myocardial function in female mice.

Clinically and experimentally, a case for omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) cardioprotection in females has not been clearly established. The goal of this study was to investigate whether dietary omega-3 PUFA supplementation could provide ischemic protection in female mice with an underlying genetic predisposition to cardiac hypertrophy. Mature female transgenic mice (TG) with cardiac-specific overexpression of angiotensinogen that develop normotensive cardiac hypertrophy and littermate wild-type (WT) mice were fed a fish oil-derived diet (FO) or PUFA-matched control diet (CTR) for 4 wk. Myocardial membrane lipids, ex vivo cardiac performance (intraventricular balloon) after global no-flow ischemia and reperfusion (15/30 min), and reperfusion arrhythmia incidence were assessed. FO diet suppressed cardiac growth by 5% and 10% in WT and TG, respectively (P < 0.001). The extent of mechanical recovery [rate-pressure product (RPP) = beats/min x mmHg] of FO-fed WT and TG hearts was similar (50 +/- 7% vs. 45 +/- 12%, 30 min reperfusion), and this was not significantly different from CTR-fed WT or TG. To evaluate whether systemic estrogen was masking a protective effect of the FO diet, the responses of ovariectomized (OVX) WT and TG mice to FO dietary intervention were assessed. The extent of mechanical recovery of FO-fed OVX WT and TG (RPP, 50 +/- 4% vs. 64 +/- 8%) was not enhanced compared with CTR-fed mice (RPP, 60 +/- 11% vs. 80 +/- 8%, P = 0.335). Dietary FO did not suppress the incidence of reperfusion arrhythmias in WT or TG hearts (ovary-intact mice or OVX). Our findings indicate a lack of cardioprotective effect of dietary FO in females, determined by assessment of mechanical and arrhythmic activity postischemia in a murine ex vivo heart model.