We're Chained: an analysis of systemic risk in finance

This dissertation presents two papers on how to deal with simple systemic risk measures to assess portfolio risk characteristics. The first paper deals with the Granger-causation of systemic risk indicators based in correlation matrices in stock returns. Special focus is devoted to the Eigenvalue Entropy as some previous literature indicated strong re- sults, but not considering different macroeconomic scenarios; the Index Cohesion Force and the Absorption Ratio are also considered. Considering the S&P500, there is not ev- idence of Granger-causation from Eigenvalue Entropies and the Index Cohesion Force. The Absorption Ratio Granger-caused both the S&P500 and the VIX index, being the only simple measure that passed this test. The second paper develops this measure to capture the regimes underlying the American stock market. New indicators are built using filtering and random matrix theory. The returns of the S&P500 is modelled as a mixture of normal distributions. The activation of each normal distribution is governed by a Markov chain with the transition probabilities being a function of the indicators. The model shows that using a Herfindahl-Hirschman Index of the normalized eigenval- ues exhibits best fit to the returns from 1998-2013.

NUMERICAL SIMULATION of CONVECTION-DIFFUSION PROBLEMS BY THE CONTROL-VOLUME-BASED FINITE-ELEMENT METHOD

This work presents a numerical study of the tri-dimensional convection-diffusion equation by the control-volume-based on finite-element method using quadratic hexahedral elements. Considering that the equation governing this problem in its main variable may represent several properties, including temperature, turbulent kinetic energy, viscous dissipation rate of the turbulent kinetic energy, specific dissipation rate of the turbulent kinetic energy, or even the concentration of a contaminant in a given medium, among others, the wide applicability of this problem is thus evidenced. Three cases of temperature distributions will be studied specifically in this work, in addition to one case of pollutant dispersion upon analysis of the concentration of a contaminant in a fixed flow point. Some comparisons will be carried out against works found in the open literature, while others will be done according to each phenomenon characteristics.

Mucosal Bridge of the Vocal Fold: Difficulties in the Diagnosis and Treatment

Mucosal bridges are rare laryngeal lesions probably of genetic origin. They may cause dysphonia of varying degrees, especially when associated with other laryngeal lesions such as vocal sulci and cysts. Reports on mucosal bridges are rare, and the better treatment is inconclusive.Aim. To report the authors' experience in 14 cases of mucosal bridge showing details on endoscopic examinations and treatment.Study Design. Retrospective study.Methods. We reviewed the medical records of 14 patients with a diagnosis of mucosal bridge confirmed by video-laryngostroboscopy and direct laryngoscopy who attended the Outpatient Clinic of Voice Disorders of the Discipline of Otorhinolaryngology, Botucatu Medical School, São Paulo State University, São Paulo. Data collected included information on gender, age, symptoms, time of onset, history of intubation, smoking status, alcohol intake, associated laryngeal lesions, treatment, and GRBAS (grade of hoarseness, roughness, breathiness, asthenia, and stress) scale ratings.Results. of 14 patients, 10 were females and four were males. There was a prevalence of adults (n = 12), with only two of the patients being younger than 13 years (10 and 13 years). Mucosal bridges showed no correlations with smoking, alcohol intake, or gastroesophageal and sinonasal symptoms. Voice abuse was reported in 50% of the cases that consisted of patients who had high-voice demand occupations. In seven cases, mucosal bridges were associated with other laryngeal lesions, particularly vocal cysts and sulci. All patients who underwent surgery and phonotherapy showed improved vocal quality.Conclusions. We documented 14 patients with dysphonia caused by mucosal bridge. Promising results were obtained with surgery.

Investigation of the H tau tau and Hbb coupling constants for a scalar (Pseudoscalar) higgs Boson at a future linear electron-positron collider

The possibility of setting constraints on the Couplings of a scalar (pseudoscalar) Higgs boson to the tau lepton and the b quark in the reactions e(+)e(-)-->v (v) over bar tau(+)tau(-) and e(+)e(-)-->v (v) over barb (b) over bar at a future linear electron-positron collider of total energy roots = 500 GeV is studied. The admixture of a new hypothetical pseudoscalar state of the Higgs boson in the Hf (f) over bar vertex is parametrized in the form (mf/v)(a+igamma(5)b). on the basis of an analysis of differential distributions for the processes under study, it is shown that data from the future linear collider TESLA will make it possible to constrain the parameters a and b as -0.32 less than or equal to Deltaa less than or equal to 0.24 and -0.73 less than or equal to b less than or equal to 0.73 in the case of the reaction e(+)e(-)-->v (v) over bar tau(+)tau(-) and as -0.026 less than or equal to Deltaa less than or equal to 0.027 and -0.23 less than or equal to b less than or equal to 0.23 in the case of the reaction e(+)e(-) --> v (v) over barb (b) over bar. It is emphasized that the contribution of the fusion Subprocess WW --> H in the channel involving an electron neutrino is of particular importance, since this contribution enhances the sensitivity of data to the parameters being analyzed. (C) 2004 MAIK Nauka/Inierperiodica.

Measurement of differential Z/gamma* plus jet plus X cross sections in p(p)over-bar collisions at root S=1.96 TeV

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Development and characterization of an equine behaviour chamber and the effects of amitraz and detomidine on spontaneous locomotor activity

This report describes the development of a behaviour chamber and the validation of the chamber to measure locomotor activity of a horse, Locomotor activity was detected by four Mini-beam sensors and recorded on a data logger every 5 min for 22 h. Horses were more active during daytime than in the evening, which was at least partially related to human activity in their surroundings. To validate the ability of the chambers to detect changes in activity, fentanyl citrate and xylazine HCl, agents well-characterized as a stimulant and a depressant, respectively, were administered to five horses. Fentanyl citrate (0.016 mg/kg) significantly increased locomotor activity which persisted for 30 min, Xylazine HCl (1 mg/kg) significantly reduced locomotor activity for 90 min. Amitraz produced a dose-dependent decrease in locomotor activity, lasting 75 min for the 0.05 mg/kg dose, 120 min for the 0.10 mg/kg dose, and 180 min for the 0.15 mg/kg dose, In a separate experiment, yohimbine administration immediately reversed the sedative effect of amitraz, This suggests there is a similarity in the mode of action of amitraz, xylazine and detomidine, as yohimbine acts primarily by blocking central alpha 2-adrenoceptors that are stimulated by agents like xylazine, There was also a significant decrease in locomotor activity following injection of detomidine (0.02, 0.04 and 0.08 mg/kg) for 1.5, 3.5 and 5.0 h, respectively, the locomotor chamber is a useful, sensitive and highly reproducible tool for measuring spontaneous locomotor activity in the horse, which allows investigators to determine an agent's average time of onset, duration and intensity of effect on movement.

Comparison of two methods of synchronization of estrus in brown brocket deer (Mazama gouazoubira)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Influence of exercise mode and maximal lactate-steady-state concentration on the validity of OBLA to predict maximal lactate-steady-state in active individuals

The aim of this study was to analyze the effects of exercise mode on the validity of onset of blood lactate accumulation (OBLA-3.5-mM fixed blood lactate concentration) to predict the work-rate at maximal lactate steady state (MLSSwork-rate). Eleven recreationally active mates (21.3 +/- 2.9 years, 72.8 +/- 6.7 kg, 1.78 +/- 0.1 m) performed randomly incremental tests to determine OBLA (stage duration of 3 min), and 2 to 4 constants work-rate exercise tests to directly determine maximal lactate steady state parameters on a cycle-ergometer and treadmill. For both exercise modes, the OBLA was significantly correlated to MLSSwork-rate, (cycling: r = 0.81 p = 0.002; running: r = 0.94, p < 0.001). OBLA (156.2 +/- 41.3 W) was lower than MLSSwork-rate (179.6 +/- 26.4 W) during cycling exercise (p = 0.007). However, for running exercise, there was no difference between OBLA (3.2 +/- 0.6 m s(-1)) and MLSSwork-rate (3.1 +/- 0.4 m s(-1)). The difference between OBLA and MLSSworkrate on the cycle-ergometer (r = 0.86; p < 0.001) and treadmill (r = 0.64; p = 0.048) was significantly related to the specific MLSS. We can conclude that the validity of OBLA on predicting MLSSwork-rate is dependent on exercise mode and that its disagreement is related to individual variations in MLSS. (C) 2007 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of ankle functional instability on the ankle electromyography during landing after volleyball blocking

The purpose of this study was to describe, interpret and compare the EMG activation patterns of ankle muscles - tibialis anterior (TA), peroneus longus (PL) and gastrocnemius lateralis (GL) - in volleyball players with and without ankle functional instability (FI) during landing after the blocking movement. Twenty-one players with FI (IG) and 19 controls (CG) were studied. The cycle of movement analyzed was the time period between 200 ms before and 200 ms after the time of impact determined by ground reaction forces. The variables were analyzed for two different phases: pre-landing (200 ms before impact) and post-landing (200 ms after impact). The RMS values and the timing of onset activity were calculated for the three studied muscles, in both periods and for both groups. The co-activation index for TA and PL, TA and GL were also calculated. Individuals with FI presented a lower RMS value pre-landing for PL (CG = 43.0 perpendicular to 22.0; IG = 26.2 perpendicular to 8.4, p < 0.05) and higher RMS value post-landing (CG = 47.5 perpendicular to 13.3; IG = 55.8 perpendicular to 21.6, p < 0.10). Besides that, in control group PL and GL activated first and simultaneously, and TA presented a later activation, while in subjects with FI all the three muscles activated simultaneously. There were no significant differences between groups for co-activation index. Thus, the rate of contraction between agonist and antagonist muscles is similar for subjects with and without FI but the activation individually was different. Volleyball players with functional instability of the ankle showed altered patterns of the muscles that play an important role in the stabilization of the foot-ankle complex during the performance of the blocking movement, to the detriment of the ligament complex, and this fact could explain the usual complaints in these subjects. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Natal and neonatal teeth: Review of the literature

Child development from conception through the first years of life is marked by many changes. Tooth eruption follows a chronology corresponding to the date when the tooth erupts into the oral cavity. These dates have been established in the literature and are subjected to small variations depending on hereditary, endocrine and environmental features. At times, however, the chronology of tooth eruption suffers a more significant alteration in terms of onset, and the first teeth may be present at birth or arise during the first month of life. The expectations about the eruption of the first teeth are great and even greater when the teeth appear early in the oral cavity. The objective of the present study was to present a review of the literature with important aspects about natal and neonatal teeth.

Calling sites and acoustic partitioning in species of the Hyla nana and rubicundula groups (Anura, Hylidae)

We analysed spatial and acoustic partitioning among four species of Hyla belonging to two species-groups: nana (H. nana and H. sanborni) and rubicundula (H. elianeae and H. jimi). Field activities were conducted at three permanent ponds, from 1998 through 2001. Four attributes of the calling sites were analysed: perch height, distance of the perch from the edge of the pond, type of perch (vegetation) and the individual's position on the perch. There was extensive overlap in the four calling-site variables analysed. However, we found spatial segregation did occur in calling site height and the distance of perches from pond edges. Bioacoustic analyses revealed behavioural differences among species in calling activity, both time of onset and peak calling in chorus. There was acoustic partitioning among species the fundamental frequency of the advertisement calls, principally as a function of the temporal structure (e.g. note duration, rate of note repetition, duration and rate of repetition of the calling pulses). We propose that differences in physical attributes of calling site and in characteristics of calls allow these species to exist in sympatry.

Early onset obsessive-compulsive disorder with and without tics

Introduction: Research suggests that obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is not a unitary entity, but rather a highly heterogeneous condition, with complex and variable clinical manifestations. Objective: The aims of this study were to compare clinical and demographic characteristics of OCD patients with early and late age of onset of obsessive-compulsive symptoms (OCS); and to compare the same features in early onset OCD with and without tics. The independent impact of age at onset and presence of tics on comorbidity patterns was investigated. Methods: Three hundred and thirty consecutive outpatients meeting Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition criteria for OCD were evaluated: 160 patients belonged to the early onset group (EOG): before 11 years of age, 75 patients had an intermediate onset (IOG), and 95 patients were from the late onset group (LOG): after 18 years of age. From the 160 EOG, 60 had comorbidity with tic disorders. The diagnostic instruments used were: the Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale and the Dimensional Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale (DY-BOCS), Yale Global Tics Severity Scale; and Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I Disorders-patient edition. Statistical tests used were: Mann-Whitney, full Bayesian significance test, and logistic regression. © MBL Communications Inc.

Using tree population size structures to assess the impacts of cattle grazing and eucalypts plantations in subtropical South America

To evaluate the effects of distinct management of the matrix in which forest fragments are found upon plant populations thriving in forest remnants in south Brazil, we assessed the conservation status of populations of four woody species (Campomanesia rhombea, Diospyros incontans, Myrciaria cuspidata and Sebastiania commersoniana) through analyses of size structure. Analyzes were carried out at two scales. At a local scale, we consider populations in fragments surrounded by pastures or eucalypts forest plantations, and at a regional scale we also consider larger forest tracts taken as reference areas (Rio Grande do Sul Forest Inventory databank). Population size structures were summarized using the symmetry of height distributions. Small individual size classes prevailed at the local scale in fragments surrounded by eucalypts plantations, whereas in areas exposed to cattle ranching, populations of the same species consistently lack small individuals. At the regional scale, populations in fragments surrounded by pastures presented greater skewness (prevalence of small plants) than populations in reference areas, while populations surrounded by eucalypts plantations presented intermediate skewness. These results reinforce the notion that plantations have a higher conservation value for forest ecosystems than other commercial land uses, like cattle ranching. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Dimensional correlates of poor insight in obsessive-compulsive disorder

Background: Cross-sectional studies have associated poor insight in patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) with increased OCD symptom severity, earlier age of onset, comorbid depression, and treatment response. The goal of this current study was to examine the relationship between dimensions of OCD symptomatology and insight in a large clinical cohort of Brazilian patients with OCD. We hypothesized that poor insight would be associated with total symptom severity as well as with hoarding symptoms severity, specifically. Methods: 824 outpatients underwent a detailed clinical assessment for OCD, including the Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale (Y-BOCS), the Dimensional Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale (DY-BOCS), the Brown Assessment of Beliefs Scale (BABS), a socio-demographic questionnaire, and the Structured Clinical Interview for axis I DSM-IV disorders (SCID-P). Tobit regression models were used to examine the association between level of insight and clinical variables of interest. Results: Increased severity of current and worst-ever hoarding symptoms and higher rate of unemployment were associated with poor insight in OCD after controlling for current OCD severity, age and gender. Poor insight was also correlated with increased severity of current OCD symptoms. Conclusion: Hoarding and overall OCD severity were significantly but weakly associated with level of insight in OCD patients. Further studies should examine insight as a moderator and mediator of treatment response in OCD in both behavioral therapy and pharmacological trials. Behavioral techniques aimed at enhancing insight may be potentially beneficial in OCD, especially among patients with hoarding. © 2011.

A bayesian analysis for the parameters of the exponential-logarithmic distribution

The exponential-logarithmic is a new lifetime distribution with decreasing failure rate and interesting applications in the biological and engineering sciences. Thus, a Bayesian analysis of the parameters would be desirable. Bayesian estimation requires the selection of prior distributions for all parameters of the model. In this case, researchers usually seek to choose a prior that has little information on the parameters, allowing the data to be very informative relative to the prior information. Assuming some noninformative prior distributions, we present a Bayesian analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Jeffreys prior is derived for the parameters of exponential-logarithmic distribution and compared with other common priors such as beta, gamma, and uniform distributions. In this article, we show through a simulation study that the maximum likelihood estimate may not exist except under restrictive conditions. In addition, the posterior density is sometimes bimodal when an improper prior density is used. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.