Memória de longo prazo nos retornos acionistas dos índices de referência da euronext, implicações para a hipótese de mercados eficientes e contributo fractal para aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model

Não existe uma definição única de processo de memória de longo prazo. Esse processo é geralmente definido como uma série que possui um correlograma decaindo lentamente ou um espectro infinito de frequência zero. Também se refere que uma série com tal propriedade é caracterizada pela dependência a longo prazo e por não periódicos ciclos longos, ou que essa característica descreve a estrutura de correlação de uma série de longos desfasamentos ou que é convencionalmente expressa em termos do declínio da lei-potência da função auto-covariância. O interesse crescente da investigação internacional no aprofundamento do tema é justificado pela procura de um melhor entendimento da natureza dinâmica das séries temporais dos preços dos ativos financeiros. Em primeiro lugar, a falta de consistência entre os resultados reclama novos estudos e a utilização de várias metodologias complementares. Em segundo lugar, a confirmação de processos de memória longa tem implicações relevantes ao nível da (1) modelação teórica e econométrica (i.e., dos modelos martingale de preços e das regras técnicas de negociação), (2) dos testes estatísticos aos modelos de equilíbrio e avaliação, (3) das decisões ótimas de consumo / poupança e de portefólio e (4) da medição de eficiência e racionalidade. Em terceiro lugar, ainda permanecem questões científicas empíricas sobre a identificação do modelo geral teórico de mercado mais adequado para modelar a difusão das séries. Em quarto lugar, aos reguladores e gestores de risco importa saber se existem mercados persistentes e, por isso, ineficientes, que, portanto, possam produzir retornos anormais. O objetivo do trabalho de investigação da dissertação é duplo. Por um lado, pretende proporcionar conhecimento adicional para o debate da memória de longo prazo, debruçando-se sobre o comportamento das séries diárias de retornos dos principais índices acionistas da EURONEXT. Por outro lado, pretende contribuir para o aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model CAPM, considerando uma medida de risco alternativa capaz de ultrapassar os constrangimentos da hipótese de mercado eficiente EMH na presença de séries financeiras com processos sem incrementos independentes e identicamente distribuídos (i.i.d.). O estudo empírico indica a possibilidade de utilização alternativa das obrigações do tesouro (OT’s) com maturidade de longo prazo no cálculo dos retornos do mercado, dado que o seu comportamento nos mercados de dívida soberana reflete a confiança dos investidores nas condições financeiras dos Estados e mede a forma como avaliam as respetiva economias com base no desempenho da generalidade dos seus ativos. Embora o modelo de difusão de preços definido pelo movimento Browniano geométrico gBm alegue proporcionar um bom ajustamento das séries temporais financeiras, os seus pressupostos de normalidade, estacionariedade e independência das inovações residuais são adulterados pelos dados empíricos analisados. Por isso, na procura de evidências sobre a propriedade de memória longa nos mercados recorre-se à rescaled-range analysis R/S e à detrended fluctuation analysis DFA, sob abordagem do movimento Browniano fracionário fBm, para estimar o expoente Hurst H em relação às séries de dados completas e para calcular o expoente Hurst “local” H t em janelas móveis. Complementarmente, são realizados testes estatísticos de hipóteses através do rescaled-range tests R/S , do modified rescaled-range test M - R/S e do fractional differencing test GPH. Em termos de uma conclusão única a partir de todos os métodos sobre a natureza da dependência para o mercado acionista em geral, os resultados empíricos são inconclusivos. Isso quer dizer que o grau de memória de longo prazo e, assim, qualquer classificação, depende de cada mercado particular. No entanto, os resultados gerais maioritariamente positivos suportam a presença de memória longa, sob a forma de persistência, nos retornos acionistas da Bélgica, Holanda e Portugal. Isto sugere que estes mercados estão mais sujeitos a maior previsibilidade (“efeito José”), mas também a tendências que podem ser inesperadamente interrompidas por descontinuidades (“efeito Noé”), e, por isso, tendem a ser mais arriscados para negociar. Apesar da evidência de dinâmica fractal ter suporte estatístico fraco, em sintonia com a maior parte dos estudos internacionais, refuta a hipótese de passeio aleatório com incrementos i.i.d., que é a base da EMH na sua forma fraca. Atendendo a isso, propõem-se contributos para aperfeiçoamento do CAPM, através da proposta de uma nova fractal capital market line FCML e de uma nova fractal security market line FSML. A nova proposta sugere que o elemento de risco (para o mercado e para um ativo) seja dado pelo expoente H de Hurst para desfasamentos de longo prazo dos retornos acionistas. O expoente H mede o grau de memória de longo prazo nos índices acionistas, quer quando as séries de retornos seguem um processo i.i.d. não correlacionado, descrito pelo gBm(em que H = 0,5 , confirmando- se a EMH e adequando-se o CAPM), quer quando seguem um processo com dependência estatística, descrito pelo fBm(em que H é diferente de 0,5, rejeitando-se a EMH e desadequando-se o CAPM). A vantagem da FCML e da FSML é que a medida de memória de longo prazo, definida por H, é a referência adequada para traduzir o risco em modelos que possam ser aplicados a séries de dados que sigam processos i.i.d. e processos com dependência não linear. Então, estas formulações contemplam a EMH como um caso particular possível.

Electrochemical studies on small electron transfer proteins using membrane electrodes

Journal of Electroanalytical Chemistry 541 (2003) 153-162

Brazilian physical activity guidelines as a strategy for health promotion

Public health actions endorsed by the federal government, for instance, health promotion initiatives, usually have greater impact at population level compared to other types of initiatives. This commentary aims to instigate debate on the importance and necessity of producing federally endorsed brazilian physical activity guidelines as a strategy for health promotion.

Partial utility-driven scheduling for flexible SLA and pricing arbitration in clouds

Cloud SLAs compensate customers with credits when average availability drops below certain levels. This is too inflexible because consumers lose non-measurable amounts of performance being only compensated later, in next charging cycles. We propose to schedule virtual machines (VMs), driven by range-based non-linear reductions of utility, different for classes of users and across different ranges of resource allocations: partial utility. This customer-defined metric, allows providers transferring resources between VMs in meaningful and economically efficient ways. We define a comprehensive cost model incorporating partial utility given by clients to a certain level of degradation, when VMs are allocated in overcommitted environments (Public, Private, Community Clouds). CloudSim was extended to support our scheduling model. Several simulation scenarios with synthetic and real workloads are presented, using datacenters with different dimensions regarding the number of servers and computational capacity. We show the partial utility-driven driven scheduling allows more VMs to be allocated. It brings benefits to providers, regarding revenue and resource utilization, allowing for more revenue per resource allocated and scaling well with the size of datacenters when comparing with an utility-oblivious redistribution of resources. Regarding clients, their workloads’ execution time is also improved, by incorporating an SLA-based redistribution of their VM’s computational power.

Molecular diversity of bla genes in Klebsiella pneumoniae and Escherichia coli isolates

Dissertation presented to obtain a Ph.D. degree in Biology, speciality Microbiology, by Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

The effect of metal transfer modes and shielding gas composition on the emission of ultraafine particles in MAG steel welding

The present study aims to characterize ultrafine particles emitted during gas metal arc welding of mild steel and stainless steel, using different shielding gas mixtures, and to evaluate the effect of metal transfer modes, controlled by both processing parameters and shielding gas composition, on the quantity and morphology of the ultrafine particles. It was found that the amount of emitted ultrafine particles (measured by particle number and alveolar deposited surface area) are clearly dependent from the main welding parameters, namely the current intensity and the heat input of the Welding process. The emission of airborne ultrafine particles increases with the current intensity as fume formation rate does. When comparing the shielding gas mixtures, higher emissions were observed for more oxidizing mixtures, that is, with higher CO2 content, which means that these mixtures originate higher concentrations of ultrafine particles (as measured by number of particles. by cubic centimeter of air) and higher values of alveolar deposited surface area of particles, thus resulting in a more hazardous condition regarding welders exposure.

The effect of metal transfer stability (spattering) on fume generation, morphology and composition in short-circuit MAG welding

The main objective of this work was to evaluate the hypothesis that the greater transfer stability leads also to less volume of fumes. Using an Ar + 25%CO2 blend as shielding gas and maintaining constant the average current, wire feed speed and welding speed, bead-on-plate welds were carried out with plain carbon steel solid wire. The welding voltage was scanned to progressively vary the transfer stability. Using two conditions of low stability and one with high stability, fume generation was evaluated by means of the AWS F1.2:2006 standard. The influence of these conditions on fume morphology and composition was also verified. A condition with greater transfer stability does not generate less fume quantity, despite the fact that this condition produces fewer spatters. Other factors such as short-circuit current, arcing time, droplet diameters and arc length are the likely governing factors, but in an interrelated way. Metal transfer stability does not influence either the composition or the size/morphology of fume particulates. (c) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The importance to update the guidelines for the use of genetic testing in noncancer patients in Brazil

The Brazilian National Regulatory Agency for Private Health Insurance and Plans has recently published a technical note defining the criteria for the coverage of genetic testing to diagnose hereditary cancer. In this study we show the case of a patient with a breast lesion and an extensive history of cancer referred to a private service of genetic counseling. The patient met both criteria for hereditary breast and colorectal cancer syndrome screening. Her private insurance denied coverage for genetic testing because she lacks current or previous cancer diagnosis. After she appealed by lawsuit, the court was favorable and the test was performed using next-generation sequencing. A deletion of MLH1 exon 8 was found. We highlight the importance to offer genetic testing using multigene analysis for noncancer patients.

FPGA-based weblab infrastructures guidelines and a prototype implementation example

Recent trends show an increasing number of weblabs, implemented at universities and schools, supporting practical training in technical courses and providing the ability to remotely conduct experiments. However, their implementation is typically based on individual architectures, unable of being reconfigured with different instruments/modules usually required by every experiment. In this paper, we discuss practical guidelines for implementing reconfigurable weblabs that support both local and remote control interfaces. The underlying infrastructure is based on reconfigurable, low-cost, FPGA-based boards supporting several peripherals that are used for the local interface. The remote interface is powered by a module capable of communicating with an Ethernet based network and that can either correspond to an internal core of the FPGA or an external device. These two approaches are discussed in the paper, followed by a practical implementation example.

Numerical 3D modeling of heat transfer in human tissues for microwave radiometry monitoring of Brown fat metabolismo

Background: Brown adipose tissue (BAT) plays an important role in whole body metabolism and could potentially mediate weight gain and insulin sensitivity. Although some imaging techniques allow BAT detection, there are currently no viable methods for continuous acquisition of BAT energy expenditure. We present a non-invasive technique for long term monitoring of BAT metabolism using microwave radiometry. Methods: A multilayer 3D computational model was created in HFSS™ with 1.5 mm skin, 3-10 mm subcutaneous fat, 200 mm muscle and a BAT region (2-6 cm3) located between fat and muscle. Based on this model, a log-spiral antenna was designed and optimized to maximize reception of thermal emissions from the target (BAT). The power absorption patterns calculated in HFSS™ were combined with simulated thermal distributions computed in COMSOL® to predict radiometric signal measured from an ultra-low-noise microwave radiometer. The power received by the antenna was characterized as a function of different levels of BAT metabolism under cold and noradrenergic stimulation. Results: The optimized frequency band was 1.5-2.2 GHz, with averaged antenna efficiency of 19%. The simulated power received by the radiometric antenna increased 2-9 mdBm (noradrenergic stimulus) and 4-15 mdBm (cold stimulus) corresponding to increased 15-fold BAT metabolism. Conclusions: Results demonstrated the ability to detect thermal radiation from small volumes (2-6 cm3) of BAT located up to 12 mm deep and to monitor small changes (0.5°C) in BAT metabolism. As such, the developed miniature radiometric antenna sensor appears suitable for non-invasive long term monitoring of BAT metabolism.

Spectroscopic Studies and Characterization of a Novel Electron-Transfer Chain

A novel two-component enzyme system from Escherichia coli involving a flavorubredoxin (FlRd) and its reductase was studied in terms of spectroscopic, redox, and biochemical properties of its constituents. FlRd contains one FMN and one rubredoxin (Rd) center per monomer. To assess the role of the Rd domain, FlRd and a truncated form lacking the Rd domain (FlRd¢Rd), were characterized. FlRd contains 2.9 ( 0.5 iron atoms/subunit, whereas FlRd¢Rd contains 2.1 ( 0.6 iron atoms/subunit. While for FlRd one iron atom corresponds to the Rd center, the other two irons, also present in FlRd¢Rd, are most probably due to a di-iron site. Redox titrations of FlRd using EPR and visible spectroscopies allowed us to determine that the Rd site has a reduction potential of -140 ( 15 mV, whereas the FMN undergoes reduction via a red-semiquinone, at -140 ( 15 mV (Flox/Flsq) and -180 ( 15 mV (Flsq/Flred), at pH 7.6. The Rd site has the lowest potential ever reported for a Rd center, which may be correlated with specific amino acid substitutions close to both cysteine clusters. The gene adjacent to that encoding FlRd was found to code for an FAD-containing protein, (flavo)rubredoxin reductase (FlRd-reductase), which is capable of mediating electron transfer from NADH to DesulfoVibrio gigas Rd as well as to E. coli FlRd. Furthermore, electron donation was found to proceed through the Rd domain of FlRd as the Rd-truncated protein does not react with FlRd-reductase. In vitro, this pathway links NADH oxidation with dioxygen reduction. The possible function of this chain is discussed considering the presence of FlRd homologues in all known genomes of anaerobes and facultative aerobes.

Finite Element Analysis (FEA) applied to heat transfer optimization process of pultrusion die systems

The aim of this study is to optimize the heat flow through the pultrusion die assembly system on the manufacturing process of a specific glass-fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) pultrusion profile. The control of heat flow and its distribution through whole die assembly system is of vital importance in optimizing the actual GFRP pultrusion process. Through mathematical modeling of heating-die process, by means of Finite Element Analysis (FEA) program, an optimum heater selection, die position and temperature control was achieved. The thermal environment within the die was critically modeled relative not only to the applied heat sources, but also to the conductive and convective losses, as well as the thermal contribution arising from the exothermic reaction of resin matrix as it cures or polymerizes from the liquid to solid condition. Numerical simulation was validated with basis on thermographic measurements carried out on key points along the die during pultrusion process.

Social network analysis applied to knowledge creation and transfer in the portuguese agricultural R&D field: an exploratory study

Paper presented at the 9th European Conference on Knowledge Management, Southampton Solent University, Southampton, UK, 4-5 Sep. 2008. URL: http://academic-conferences.org/eckm/eckm2008/eckm08-home.htm

Evolution of subpatent parasitaemia in Trypanosoma cruzi chronically infected mice with the help of a cyclophosphamide amplification transfer assay

We have evaluated the sensitivity of the classical blood subinoculation method, modified through cyclophosphamide treatment of transferred mice, for the detection of occult parasitaemias in Trypanosoma cruzi chronically infected mice. Besides its simplicity, the method was shown to be highly sensitive for both the "chronic" phase parasites (99% of chronic cases were shown to harbour occult parasitaemias) and for the acute phase parasites (T. cruzi could be detected in 53.8% of animals transferred with one Y strain parasite and in 20% of animals transferred with one CL strain parasite). Using acute phase bloodforms, the assay proved to be more sensitive than conventional subinoculation when dealing with the CL, but not the Y strain of the parasite. With the help of this parasite detection tool, we have studied during a one year period, the evolution of subpatent parasitaemias in a group of mice which survived through chemotherapy from lethal acute phase of T. cruzi infection. Cyclophosphamide transfer assay revealed occult parasitaemias in 100% of the chronic animals, nevertheless, continuous and discontinuous patterns of positivity were observed.