Validation of and comparison between a semidistributed rainfall-runoff hydrological model (PREVAH) and a spatially distributed snow-evolution model (SnowModel) for snow cover prediction in mountain ecosystems

Snow cover is an important control in mountain environments and a shift of the snow-free period triggered by climate warming can strongly impact ecosystem dynamics. Changing snow patterns can have severe effects on alpine plant distribution and diversity. It thus becomes urgent to provide spatially explicit assessments of snow cover changes that can be incorporated into correlative or empirical species distribution models (SDMs). Here, we provide for the first time a with a lower overestimation comparison of two physically based snow distribution models (PREVAH and SnowModel) to produce snow cover maps (SCMs) at a fine spatial resolution in a mountain landscape in Austria. SCMs have been evaluated with SPOT-HRVIR images and predictions of snow water equivalent from the two models with ground measurements. Finally, SCMs of the two models have been compared under a climate warming scenario for the end of the century. The predictive performances of PREVAH and SnowModel were similar when validated with the SPOT images. However, the tendency to overestimate snow cover was slightly lower with SnowModel during the accumulation period, whereas it was lower with PREVAH during the melting period. The rate of true positives during the melting period was two times higher on average with SnowModel with a lower overestimation of snow water equivalent. Our results allow for recommending the use of SnowModel in SDMs because it better captures persisting snow patches at the end of the snow season, which is important when modelling the response of species to long-lasting snow cover and evaluating whether they might survive under climate change.

First records and potential palaeoecological significance of Dianella (Xanthorrhoeaceae), an extinct representative of the native flora of Rapa Nui (Easter Island).

Easter Island, a remote island in the Pacific Ocean, is currently primarily covered by grasslands, but palaeoecological studies have shown the former presence of different vegetation. Much of its original biota has been removed during the last two millennia, most likely by human activities, and little is known about the native flora.Macrofossil and pollen analyses of a sediment core from the Raraku crater lake have revealed the occurrence of a plant that is currently extinct from the island: Dianella cf. intermedia/adenanthera (Xanthorrhoeaceae), which grew and disappeared at the Raraku site long before human arrival. The occurrence of Dianella within the Raraku sedimentary sequence (between 9.4 and 5.4 cal. kyr B.P.) could have been linked to the existence of favorable palaeoenvironmental conditions (peatland rather than the present-day lacustrine environment) during the early to mid Holocene. This finding contributes new knowledge about indigenous plant diversity on Easter Island and reinforces the usefulness of further macrofossil and pollen analyses to identify native species on Easter Island and elsewhere.

What can ecosystems learn? Expanding evolutionary ecology with learning theory.

BACKGROUND: The structure and organisation of ecological interactions within an ecosystem is modified by the evolution and coevolution of the individual species it contains. Understanding how historical conditions have shaped this architecture is vital for understanding system responses to change at scales from the microbial upwards. However, in the absence of a group selection process, the collective behaviours and ecosystem functions exhibited by the whole community cannot be organised or adapted in a Darwinian sense. A long-standing open question thus persists: Are there alternative organising principles that enable us to understand and predict how the coevolution of the component species creates and maintains complex collective behaviours exhibited by the ecosystem as a whole? RESULTS: Here we answer this question by incorporating principles from connectionist learning, a previously unrelated discipline already using well-developed theories on how emergent behaviours arise in simple networks. Specifically, we show conditions where natural selection on ecological interactions is functionally equivalent to a simple type of connectionist learning, 'unsupervised learning', well-known in neural-network models of cognitive systems to produce many non-trivial collective behaviours. Accordingly, we find that a community can self-organise in a well-defined and non-trivial sense without selection at the community level; its organisation can be conditioned by past experience in the same sense as connectionist learning models habituate to stimuli. This conditioning drives the community to form a distributed ecological memory of multiple past states, causing the community to: a) converge to these states from any random initial composition; b) accurately restore historical compositions from small fragments; c) recover a state composition following disturbance; and d) to correctly classify ambiguous initial compositions according to their similarity to learned compositions. We examine how the formation of alternative stable states alters the community's response to changing environmental forcing, and we identify conditions under which the ecosystem exhibits hysteresis with potential for catastrophic regime shifts. CONCLUSIONS: This work highlights the potential of connectionist theory to expand our understanding of evo-eco dynamics and collective ecological behaviours. Within this framework we find that, despite not being a Darwinian unit, ecological communities can behave like connectionist learning systems, creating internal conditions that habituate to past environmental conditions and actively recalling those conditions. REVIEWERS: This article was reviewed by Prof. Ricard V Solé, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona and Prof. Rob Knight, University of Colorado, Boulder.

Predicting the future effectiveness of protected areas for bird conservation in Mediterranean ecosystems under climate change and novel fire regime scenarios

AimGlobal environmental changes challenge traditional conservation approaches based on the selection of static protected areas due to their limited ability to deal with the dynamic nature of driving forces relevant to biodiversity. The Natura 2000 network (N2000) constitutes a major milestone in biodiversity conservation in Europe, but the degree to which this static network will be able to reach its long-term conservation objectives raises concern. We assessed the changes in the effectiveness of N2000 in a Mediterranean ecosystem between 2000 and 2050 under different combinations of climate and land cover change scenarios. LocationCatalonia, Spain. MethodsPotential distribution changes of several terrestrial bird species of conservation interest included in the European Union's Birds Directive were predicted within an ensemble-forecasting framework that hierarchically integrated climate change and land cover change scenarios. Land cover changes were simulated using a spatially explicit fire-succession model that integrates fire management strategies and vegetation encroachment after the abandonment of cultivated areas as the main drivers of landscape dynamics in Mediterranean ecosystems. ResultsOur results suggest that the amount of suitable habitats for the target species will strongly decrease both inside and outside N2000. However, the effectiveness of N2000 is expected to increase in the next decades because the amount of suitable habitats is predicted to decrease less inside than outside this network. Main conclusionsSuch predictions shed light on the key role that the current N2000may play in the near future and emphasize the need for an integrative conservation perspective wherein agricultural, forest and fire management policies should be considered to effectively preserve key habitats for threatened birds in fire-prone, highly dynamic Mediterranean ecosystems. Results also show the importance of considering landscape dynamics and the synergies between different driving forces when assessing the long-term effectiveness of protected areas for biodiversity conservation.

Job loss among immigrant and native workers: evidence from Spain's economic downturn

The profound crisis that has affected the Spanish economy since mid - 2008 has been characterized by significant job losses and a marked rise in the country´s unemployment rate. However, unemployment has had a differential impact on different population groups. Compared to native, immigrant workers have experienced higher rates of job loss. Against this backdrop, this paper examines the differences between immigrants and natives (distinguished by gender) in terms of their probability of suffering job loss in the downturn of late 2008 and 2009. Our results indicate that the higher rate of job loss among female immigrant workers can be fully explained by their lower endowment of human capital. By contrast, human capital endowment and over-representation in certain occupations, sectors and regions in which the crisis had greatest impact do not appear to be the only reason for the penalty suffered by immigrant males in terms of their chances of losing their job in the downturn.

Will climate change increase the risk of plant invasions into mountains?

Mountain ecosystems have been less adversely affected by invasions of non-native plants than most other ecosystems, partially because most invasive plants in the lowlands are limited by climate and cannot grow under harsher high-elevation conditions. However, with ongoing climate change, invasive species may rapidly move upwards and threaten mid- then high-elevation mountain ecosystems. We evaluated this threat by predicting current and future potential distributions of 48 invasive plant species distributed in Switzerland (CH) and New South Wales (NSW), two areas where climate interacts differently with the elevation gradient. Using a species distribution modeling approach combining two scales, which builds on high-resolution data (< 250 m) but accounts for the global climatic niche of species, we found that different environmental drivers limit the elevation range of invasive species in the two regions, leading to region-specific species responses to climate change. Whereas the optimal suitability for plant invaders is predicted to markedly shift from the lowland to the montane or subalpine zone in CH, such an upward shift is far less pronounced in NSW where montane and subalpine elevations are currently already suitable. Non-native species able to invade the upper reaches of mountains in a future climate will be cold-tolerant in the Swiss Alps but preferring wet soils in the Australian Alps. Other plant traits were only marginally associated with elevation limits. These results demonstrate that a more systematic consideration of future distributions of invasive species is required in conservation plans of not yet invaded mountainous ecosystems.

Longer and less overlapping food webs in anthropogenically disturbed marine ecosystems: confirmations from the past

The human exploitation of marine resources is characterised by the preferential removal of the largest species. Although this is expected to modify the structure of food webs, we have a relatively poor understanding of the potential consequences of such alteration. Here, we take advantage of a collection of ancient consumer tissues, using stable isotope analysis and SIBER to assess changes in the structure of coastal marine food webs in the South-western Atlantic through the second half of the Holocene as a result of the sequential exploitation of marine resources by hunter-gatherers, western sealers and modern fishermen. Samples were collected from shell middens and museums. Shells of both modern and archaeological intertidal herbivorous molluscs were used to reconstruct changes in the stable isotopic baseline, while modern and archaeological bones of the South American sea lion Otaria flavescens, South American fur seal Arctocephalus australis and Magellanic penguin Spheniscus magellanicus were used to analyse changes in the structure of the community of top predators. We found that ancient food webs were shorter, more redundant and more overlapping than current ones, both in northern-central Patagonia and southern Patagonia. These surprising results may be best explained by the huge impact of western sealing on pinnipeds during the fur trade period, rather than the impact of fishing on fish populations. As a consequence, the populations of pinnipeds at the end of the sealing period were likely well below the ecosystem's carrying capacity, which resulted in a release of intraspecific competition and a shift towards larger and higher trophic level prey. This in turn led to longer and less overlapping food webs.

Health care utilization among immigrants and native-born populations in 11 European countries. Results from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe

This study examines health care utilization of immigrants relative to the native-born populations aged 50 years and older in eleven European countries. Methods. We analyzed data from the Survey of Health Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) from 2004 for a sample of 27,444 individuals in 11 European countries. Negative Binomial regression was conducted to examine the difference in number of doctor visits, visits to General Practitioners (GPs), and hospital stays between immigrants and the native-born individuals. Results: We find evidence those immigrants above age 50 use health services on average more than the native-born populations with the same characteristics. Our models show immigrants have between 6% and 27% more expected visits to the doctor, GP or hospital stays when compared to native-born populations in a number of European countries. Discussion: Elderly immigrant populations might be using health services more intensively due to cultural reasons.

Invasive species and habitat degradation in Iberian streams: an analysis of their role in freshwater fish diversity loss

Mediterranean endemic freshwater fish are among the most threatened biota in the world. Distinguishing the role of different extinction drivers and their potential interactions is crucial for achieving conservation goals. While some authors argue that invasive species are a main driver of native species declines, others see their proliferation as a co-occurring process to biodiversity loss driven by habitat degradation. It is difficult to discern between the two potential causes given that few invaded ecosystems are free from habitat degradation, and that both factors may interact in different ways. Here we analyze the relative importance of habitat degradation and invasive species in the decline of native fish assemblages in the Guadiana River basin (southwestern Iberian Peninsula) using an information theoretic approach to evaluate interaction pathways between invasive species and habitat degradation (structural equation modeling, SEM). We also tested the possible changes in the functional relationships between invasive and native species, measured as the per capita effect of invasive species, using ANCOVA. We found that the abundance of invasive species was the best single predictor of natives’ decline and had the highest Akaike weight among the set of predictor variables examined. Habitat degradation neither played an active role nor influenced the per capita effect of invasive species on natives. Our analyses indicated that downstream reaches and areas close to reservoirs had the most invaded fish assemblages, independently of their habitat degradation status. The proliferation of invasive species poses a strong threat to the persistence of native assemblages in highly fluctuating environments. Therefore, conservation efforts to reduce native freshwater fish diversity loss in Mediterranean rivers should focus on mitigating the effect of invasive species and preventing future invasions

The Problem of Invasive Species in River Ecosystems

Invasive nonnative species are a major problem in river ecosystems, and have large ecological and economic costs. Few ecosystems can resist invasions. The species that tend to invade most readily are those that humans. Introduce the most, and the ecosystems they invade are those with the most human activity. Most invasions are irreversible, and control is expensive, so efforts should be focused on prevention of future invasions

Homogenization Dynamics and Introduction Routes of Invasive Freshwater Fish in the Iberian Peninsula

Nonnative invasive species are one of the main global threats to biodiversity. The understanding of the traits characterizing successful invaders and invasion-prone ecosystems is increasing, but our predictive ability is still limited. Quantitative information on biotic homogenization and particularly its temporal dynamics is even scarcer. We used freshwater fish distribution data in the Iberian Peninsula in four periods (before human intervention, 1991, 1995, and 2001) to assess the temporal dynamics of biotic homogenization among river basins. The percentage of introduced species among fish faunas has increased in recent times (from 41.8% in 1991 to 52.5% in 2001), leading to a clear increase in the similarity of community composition among basins. The mean Jaccard's index increase (a measure of biotic homogenization) from the pristine situation to the present (17.1%) was similar to that for Californian fish but higher than for other studies. However, biotic homogenization was found to be a temporally dynamic process, with finer temporal grain analyses detecting transient stages of biotic differentiation. Introduced species assemblages were spatially structured along a latitudinal gradient in the Iberian Peninsula, with species related to sport fishing being characteristic of northern basins. Although the comparison of fish distributions in the Iberian Peninsula and France showed significant and generalized biotic homogenization, nonnative assemblages of northeastern Iberian basins were more similar to those of France than to those of the rest of the Iberian Peninsula, indicating a main introduction route. Species introduced to the Iberian Peninsula tended to be mainly piscivores or widely introduced species that previously had been introduced to France. Our results indicate that the simultaneous analysis of the spatial distribution of introduced assemblages (excluding native species that reflect other biogeographical patterns) and their specific traits can be an effective tool to detect introduction and invasion routes and to predict future invaders from donor regions

Experimental assessment of the effects of a Neotropical nocturnal piscivore on juvenile native and invasive fishes

We experimentally examined the predator-prey relationships between juvenile spotted sorubim Pseudoplastystoma corruscans and young-of-the-year invasive and native fish species of the Paraná River basin, Brazil. Three invasive (peacock bass Cichla piquiti, Nile tilapia Oreochromis niloticus, and channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus) and two native (yellowtail tetra Astyanax altiparanae and streaked prochilod Prochilodus lineatus) fish species were offered as prey to P. corruscans in 300 L aquaria with three habitat complexity treatments (0%, 50% and 100% structure-covered). Prey survival was variable through time and among species (C. piquiti < O. niloticus < A. altiparanae < P. lineatus < I. punctatus), depending largely on species-specific prey behavior but also on prey size and morphological defenses. Habitat complexity did not directly affect P. corruscans piscivory but some prey species changed their microhabitat use and shoaling behavior among habitat treatments in predator’s presence. Pseudoplatystoma corruscans preyed preferentially on smaller individuals of those invasive species with weak morphological defensive features that persisted in a non-shoaling behavior. Overall, our results contrast with those in a companion experiment using a diurnal predator, suggesting that nocturnal piscivores preferentially prey on different (rather diurnal) fish species and are less affected by habitat complexity. Our findings suggest that recovering the native populations of P. corruscans might help controling some fish species introduced to the Paraná River basin, particularly C. piquiti and O. niloticus, whose parental care is expected to be weak or null at night

Crustacean and aquatic insect assemblages in the Mediterranean coastal ecosystems of Empord`a wetlands (NE Iberian peninsula)

Coastal wetlands are characterized by high biodiversity, which is one of the main criteria considered when establishing protection policies or when proposing adequate management actions. In this study, the crustacean and aquatic insect composition of the Empord`a wetlands is described. These two faunal groups contribute highly to the total biodiversity in these wetlands but are seldom considered when managing natural areas. A selection (84 sampling points) of all water body types present in the Empord`a wetlands were sampled monthly (surber and dip net with a 250 μm mesh). Sampling was carried out during 3 surveys (1991-92, 1996-97 and 1999-2000). A rich fauna of 125 crustacean and 295 aquatic insect taxa was identified. We characterized each water body type using the most abundant species and the relative species richness of the taxonomic groups. A classification of the water body types, according to similarity between inventories, groups the brackish and hyperhaline systems in one cluster and the various freshwater systems in another one. Among freshwater systems, lotic waters and freshwater wetlands have a high similarity, whereas rice fields and freshwater springs have a low similarity