Analysis of long-term light-trap data for Helicoverpa spp. (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) in Australia: the effect of climate and crop host plants

Regression analyses of a long series of light-trap catches at Narrabri, Australia, were used to describe the seasonal dynamics of Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner). The size of the second generation was significantly related to the size of the first generation, to winter rainfall, which had a positive effect, and to spring rainfall which had a negative effect. These variables accounted for up to 96% of the variation in size of the second generation from year to year. Rainfall and crop hosts were also important for the size of the third generation. The area and tonnage of many potential host crops were significantly correlated with winter rain. When winter rain was omitted from the analysis, the sizes of both the second and third generations could be expressed as a function of the size of the previous generation and of the areas planted to lucerne, sorghum and maize. Lucerne and maize always had positive coefficients and sorghum a negative one. We extended our analysis to catches of H. punctigera (Wallengren), which declines in abundance after the second generation. Winter rain had a positive effect on the sizes of the second and third generations, and rain in spring or early summer had a negative effect. Only the area grown to lucerne had a positive effect on abundance. Forecasts of pest levels from a few months to a few weeks in advance are discussed, along with the improved understanding of the seasonal dynamics of both species and the significance of crops in the management of insecticide resistance for H. armigera.

High HIV incidence and prevalence among young women in rural South Africa: Developing a cohort for intervention trials

Objective: To measure prevalence and model incidence of HIV infection. Setting: 2013 consecutive pregnant women attending public sector antenatal clinics in 1997 in Hlabisa health district, South Africa. Historical seroprevalence data, 1992-1995. Methods: Serum remaining from syphilis testing was tested anonymously for antibodies to HIV to determine seroprevalence. Two models, allowing for differential mortality between HIV-positive and HIV-negative people, were used. The first used serial seroprevalence data to estimate trends in annual incidence. The second, a maximum likelihood model, took account of changing force of infection and age-dependent risk of infection, to estimate age-specific HIV incidence in 1997. Multiple logistic regression provided adjusted odds ratios (OR) for risk factors for prevalent HIV infection. Results: Estimated annual HIV incidence increased from 4% in 1992/1993 to 10% in 1996/1997. In 1997, highest age-specific incidence was 16% among women aged between 20 and 24 years. in 1997, overall prevalence was 26% (95% confidence interval [CI], 24%-28%) and at 34% was highest among women aged between 20 and 24 years. Young age (<30 years; odds ratio [OR], 2.1; p = .001), unmarried status (OR 2.2; p = .001) and living in less remote parts of the district (OR 1.5; p = .002) were associated with HIV prevalence in univariate analysis. Associations were less strong in multivariate analysis. Partner's migration status was not associated with HIV infection. Substantial heterogeneity of HIV prevalence by clinic was observed (range 17%-31%; test for trend, p = .001). Conclusions: This community is experiencing an explosive HIV epidemic. Young, single women in the more developed parts of the district would form an appropriate cohort to test, and benefit from, interventions such as vaginal microbicides and HIV vaccines.

Mutation screening of the c-MYB negative regulatory domain in acute and chronic myeloid leukaemia

Over-expression of the c-myb gene and expression of activated forms of myb are known to transform haemopoietic cells, particularly cells of the myeloid lineage. Truncations or mutations that disrupt the negative regulatory domain (NRD) of the Myb protein confer an increased ability to transform cells. Although it has proved difficult to link mutations in c-MYB to human leukaemia, no studies investigating the presence of mutations within the c-MYB NRD have been reported. Therefore, we have performed mutational analysis of this region, using polymerase chain reaction-single-stranded conformation polymorphism and sequence analysis, in 26 patients with acute or chronic myeloid leukaemia, No mutations were detected, indicating that mutation of this region of the Myb protein is not common in the pathogenesis or progression of these diseases.

Exploratory Approach to the use of Techniques of Regression Analysis and Pooled Analysis in Studies of Consumer Behavior

This paper is part of a large study to assess the adequacy of the use of multivariate statistical techniques in theses and dissertations of some higher education institutions in the area of marketing with theme of consumer behavior from 1997 to 2006. The regression and conjoint analysis are focused on in this paper, two techniques with great potential of use in marketing studies. The objective of this study was to analyze whether the employement of these techniques suits the needs of the research problem presented in as well as to evaluate the level of success in meeting their premisses. Overall, the results suggest the need for more involvement of researchers in the verification of all the theoretical precepts of application of the techniques classified in the category of investigation of dependence among variables.

Multicollinearity and financial constraint in investment decisions: a Bayesian generalized ridge regression

This paper addresses the investment decisions considering the presence of financial constraints of 373 large Brazilian firms from 1997 to 2004, using panel data. A Bayesian econometric model was used considering ridge regression for multicollinearity problems among the variables in the model. Prior distributions are assumed for the parameters, classifying the model into random or fixed effects. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters, considering normal and Student t distributions for the error and assumed that the initial values for the lagged dependent variable are not fixed, but generated by a random process. The recursive predictive density criterion was used for model comparisons. Twenty models were tested and the results indicated that multicollinearity does influence the value of the estimated parameters. Controlling for capital intensity, financial constraints are found to be more important for capital-intensive firms, probably due to their lower profitability indexes, higher fixed costs and higher degree of property diversification.

Interpretation of negative values of the interaction parameter in the adsorption equation through the effects of surface layer heterogeneity

The problem of the negative values of the interaction parameter in the equation of Frumkin has been analyzed with respect to the adsorption of nonionic molecules on energetically homogeneous surface. For this purpose, the adsorption states of a homologue series of ethoxylated nonionic surfactants on air/water interface have been determined using four different models and literature data (surface tension isotherms). The results obtained with the Frumkin adsorption isotherm imply repulsion between the adsorbed species (corresponding to negative values of the interaction parameter), while the classical lattice theory for energetically homogeneous surface (e.g., water/air) admits attraction alone. It appears that this serious contradiction can be overcome by assuming heterogeneity in the adsorption layer, that is, effects of partial condensation (formation of aggregates) on the surface. Such a phenomenon is suggested in the Fainerman-Lucassen-Reynders-Miller (FLM) 'Aggregation model'. Despite the limitations of the latter model (e.g., monodispersity of the aggregates), we have been able to estimate the sign and the order of magnitude of Frumkin's interaction parameter and the range of the aggregation numbers of the surface species. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Suppressing the negative effect of devaluation on group identification: The role of intergroup differentiation and intragroup respect

We examined (N = 76) how social creativity strategies such as intergroup differentiation and intragroup respect suppress the negative impact of threat to an ingroup's value on group identification. Threat was manipulated through false feedback concerning how other groups perceived an ingroup. Both intergroup differentiation and intragroup respect were higher when participants learned that the ingroup was devalued compared to when it was valued. Mediational analyses demonstrated that these factors suppressed the direct negative relationship between value threat and group identification. Discussion focused on the consequences of these social creativity strategies for group identification and collective action. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Patterns of brain asymmetry in the perception of positive and negative facial expressions

The divided visual field technique was used to investigate the pattern of brain asymmetry in the perception of positive/approach and negative/withdrawal facial expressions. A total of 80 undergraduate students (65 female, 15 male) were distributed in five experimental groups in order to investigate separately the perception of expressions of happiness, surprise, fear, sadness, and the neutral face. In each trial a target and a distractor expression were presented simultaneously in a computer screen for 150 ms and participants had to determine the side (left or right) on which the target expression was presented. Results indicated that expressions of happiness and fear were identified faster when presented in the left visual field, suggesting an advantage of the right hemisphere in the perception of these expressions. Fewer judgement errors and faster reaction times were also observed for the matching condition in which emotional faces were presented in the left visual field and neutral faces in the right visual field. Other results indicated that positive expressions (happiness and surprise) were perceived faster and more accurately than negative ones (sadness and fear). Main results tend to support the right hemisphere hypothesis, which predicts a better performance of the right hemisphere to perceive emotions, as opposed to the approach-withdrawal hypothesis.

A comparison of lipid variables as predictors of cardiovascular disease in the Asia Pacific Region

PURPOSE: Many guidelines advocate measurement of total or low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), and triglycerides (TG) to determine treatment recommendations for preventing coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). This analysis is a comparison of lipid variables as predictors of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Hazard ratios for coronary and cardiovascular deaths by fourths of total cholesterol (TC), LDL, HDL, TG, non-HDL, TC/HDL, and TG/HDL values, and for a one standard deviation change in these variables, were derived in an individual participant data meta-analysis of 32 cohort studies conducted in the Asia-Pacific region. The predictive value of each lipid variable was assessed using the likelihood ratio statistic. RESULTS: Adjusting for confounders and regression dilution, each lipid variable had a positive (negative for HDL) log-linear association with fatal CHD and CVD. Individuals in the highest fourth of each lipid variable had approximately twice the risk of CHD compared with those with lowest levels. TG and HDL were each better predictors of CHD and CVD risk compared with TC alone, with test statistics similar to TC/HDL and TG/HDL ratios. Calculated LDL was a relatively poor predictor. CONCLUSIONS: While LDL reduction remains the main target of intervention for lipid-lowering, these data support the potential use of TG or lipid ratios for CHD risk prediction. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Homicide mortality, socioeconomic development, and police violence in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Objective. To analyze the association between police violence and homicide mortality rates taking into consideration the effect of contextual variables. Methods. This was an environmental, cross-sectional study that included the 96 census districts in the City of Sao Paulo. The association between the variables was analyzed using Spearman`s rank correlation and simple and multiple regression analysis. Results. Univariate analysis revealed a strong and significant association between homicide mortality coefficients and all the indicators of socioeconomic development and police violence. After controlling for potential confounding factors, the association between police violence and homicide mortality coefficients remained strong and significant. This significance was lost only after control for the size of the resident population. Conclusion. The results indicate that police action that violates basic human rights is not the right answer to urban violence. The combination of homicides from interpersonal violence and deaths from police violence results in negative socialization and promotes further violence.

Pectinase production by solid fermentation from Aspergillus niger by a new prescription experiment

The Ordos Plateau in China is covered with up to 300,000 ha of peashrub (Caragana) which is the dominant natural vegetation and ideal for fodder production. To exploit peashrub fodder, it is crucially important to optimize the culture conditions, especially culture substrate to produce pectinase complex. In this study, a new prescription process was developed. The process, based on a uniform experimental design, first optimizes the solid substrate and second, after incubation, applies two different temperature treatments (30 degrees C for the first 30 h and 23 degrees C for the second 42 h) in the fermentation process. A multivariate regression analysis is applied to a number of independent variables (water, wheat bran, rice dextrose, ammonium sulfate, and Tween 80) to develop a predictive model of pectinase activity. A second-degree polynomial model is developed which accounts for an excellent proportion of the explained variation (R-2 = 97.7%). Using unconstrained mathematical programming, an optimized substrate prescription for pectinase production is subsequently developed. The mathematical analysis revealed that the optimal formula for pectinase production from Aspergillus niger by solid fermentation under the conditions of natural aeration, natural substrate pH (about 6.5), and environmental humidity of 60% is rice dextrose 8%, wheat bran 24%, ammonium sulfate ((NH4)(2)SO4) 6%, and water 61%. Tween 80 was found to have a negative effect on the production of pectinase in solid substrate. With this substrate prescription, pectinase produced by solid fermentation of A. niger reached 36.3IU/(gDM). Goats fed on the pectinase complex obtain an incremental increase of 0.47 kg day(-1) during the initial 25 days of feeding, which is a very promising new feeding prospect for the local peashrub. It is concluded that the new formula may be very useful for the sustainable development of and and semiarid pastures such as those of the Ordos Plateau. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.