Multivariate ARIMA Compositional Time Series Analysis

A compositional time series is obtained when a compositional data vector is observed atdifferent points in time. Inherently, then, a compositional time series is a multivariatetime series with important constraints on the variables observed at any instance in time.Although this type of data frequently occurs in situations of real practical interest, atrawl through the statistical literature reveals that research in the field is very much in itsinfancy and that many theoretical and empirical issues still remain to be addressed. Anyappropriate statistical methodology for the analysis of compositional time series musttake into account the constraints which are not allowed for by the usual statisticaltechniques available for analysing multivariate time series. One general approach toanalyzing compositional time series consists in the application of an initial transform tobreak the positive and unit sum constraints, followed by the analysis of the transformedtime series using multivariate ARIMA models. In this paper we discuss the use of theadditive log-ratio, centred log-ratio and isometric log-ratio transforms. We also presentresults from an empirical study designed to explore how the selection of the initialtransform affects subsequent multivariate ARIMA modelling as well as the quality ofthe forecasts

Regulation of the expression of components of the exocytotic machinery of insulin-secreting cells by microRNAs

Fine-tuning of insulin secretion from pancreatic beta-cells participates in blood glucose homeostasis. Defects in this process can lead to chronic hyperglycemia and diabetes mellitus. Several proteins controlling insulin exocytosis have been identified, but the mechanisms regulating their expression remain poorly understood. Here, we show that two non-coding microRNAs, miR124a and miR96, modulate the expression of proteins involved in insulin exocytosis and affect secretion of the beta-cell line MIN6B1. miR124a increases the levels of SNAP25, Rab3A and synapsin-1A and decreases those of Rab27A and Noc2. Inhibition of Rab27A expression is mediated by direct binding to the 3'-untranslated region of Rab27A mRNA. The effect on the other genes is indirect and linked to changes in mRNA levels. Over-expression of miR124a leads to exaggerated hormone release under basal conditions and a reduction in glucose-induced secretion. miR96 increases mRNA and protein levels of granuphilin, a negative modulator of insulin exocytosis, and decreases the expression of Noc2, resulting in lower capacity of MIN6B1 cells to respond to secretagogues. Our data identify miR124a and miR96 as novel regulators of the expression of proteins playing a critical role in insulin exocytosis and in the release of other hormones and neurotransmitters

The ability of haemolysins expressed by atypical enteropathogenic Escherichia coli to bind to extracellular matrix components

Typical and atypical enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (EPEC) are considered important bacterial causes of diarrhoea. Considering the repertoire of virulence genes, atypical EPEC (aEPEC) is a heterogeneous group, harbouring genes that are found in other diarrheagenic E. coli pathotypes, such as those encoding haemolysins. Haemolysins are cytolytic toxins that lyse host cells disrupting the function of the plasma membrane. In addition, these cytolysins mediate a connection to vascular tissue and/or blood components, such as plasma and cellular fibronectin. Therefore, we investigated the haemolytic activity of 72 aEPEC isolates and determined the correlation of this phenotype with the presence of genes encoding enterohaemolysins (Ehly) and cytolysin A (ClyA). In addition, the correlation between the expression of haemolysins and the ability of these secreted proteins to adhere to extracellular matrix (ECM) components was also assessed in this study. Our findings demonstrate that a subset of aEPEC presents haemolytic activity due to the expression of Ehlys and/or ClyA and that this activity is closely related to the ability of these isolates to bind to ECM components.

Influence of environmental conditions on the distribution of Central Asian green toads with three ploidy levels.

We studied the distribution of Palearctic green toads (Bufo viridis subgroup), an anuran species group with three ploidy levels, inhabiting the Central Asian Amudarya River drainage. Various approaches (one-way, multivariate, components variance analyses and maximum entropy modelling) were used to estimate the effect of altitude, precipitation, temperature and land vegetation covers on the distribution of toads. It is usually assumed that polyploid species occur in regions with harsher climatic conditions (higher latitudes, elevations, etc.), but for the green toads complex, we revealed a more intricate situation. The diploid species (Bufo shaartusiensis and Bufo turanensis) inhabit the arid lowlands (from 44 to 789 m a.s.l.), while tetraploid Bufo pewzowi were recorded in mountainous regions (340-3492 m a.s.l.) with usually lower temperatures and higher precipitation rates than in the region inhabited by diploid species. The triploid species Bufo baturae was found in the Pamirs (Tajikistan) at the highest altitudes (2503-3859 m a.s.l.) under the harshest climatic conditions.

Effects of Interviewer Experience on Components of Nonresponse in the European Social Survey

We analyze interviewer related nonresponse differences in face-to-face surveys distinguishing three types of interviewers: those who have previous experience with the same high standard cross-sectional survey ("experienced"), those who were chosen by the survey agency to complete refusal conversions ("seniors"), and usual interviewers. The nonresponse components are obtaining household contact, target person contact, and target person cooperation. In addition we examine if interviewer homogeneity with respect to these components is different across the three interviewer groups. Data come from the European Social Survey (ESS) contact forms from four countries which participated during the three rounds 2002/04/06 and used the same survey agency that in turn used to some extent the same interviewers. To analyze interviewer effects, we use discrete two-level models. We find some evidence of better performance by both senior and experienced interviewers and indications of greater homogeneity for nonresponse components, especially for those that contain room for improvement. Surprisingly, the senior interviewers do not outperform those experienced. We conclude that survey agencies should make more efforts to decrease the comparatively high interviewer turnover.

Structural components in functional data

Analyzing functional data often leads to finding common factors, for which functional principal component analysis proves to be a useful tool to summarize and characterize the random variation in a function space. The representation in terms of eigenfunctions is optimal in the sense of L-2 approximation. However, the eigenfunctions are not always directed towards an interesting and interpretable direction in the context of functional data and thus could obscure the underlying structure. To overcome such difficulty, an alternative to functional principal component analysis is proposed that produces directed components which may be more informative and easier to interpret. These structural components are similar to principal components, but are adapted to situations in which the domain of the function may be decomposed into disjoint intervals such that there is effectively independence between intervals and positive correlation within intervals. The approach is demonstrated with synthetic examples as well as real data. Properties for special cases are also studied.

Role of Kras Status in Patients with Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Receiving First-Line Chemotherapy plus Bevacizumab: A TTD Group Cooperative Study

BACKGROUND In the MACRO study, patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) were randomised to first-line treatment with 6 cycles of capecitabine and oxaliplatin (XELOX) plus bevacizumab followed by either single-agent bevacizumab or XELOX plus bevacizumab until disease progression. An additional retrospective analysis was performed to define the prognostic value of tumour KRAS status on progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS) and response rates. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS KRAS data (tumour KRAS status and type of mutation) were collected by questionnaire from participating centres that performed KRAS analyses. These data were then cross-referenced with efficacy data for relevant patients in the MACRO study database. KRAS status was analysed in 394 of the 480 patients (82.1%) in the MACRO study. Wild-type (WT) KRAS tumours were found in 219 patients (56%) and mutant (MT) KRAS in 175 patients (44%). Median PFS was 10.9 months for patients with WT KRAS and 9.4 months for patients with MT KRAS tumours (p=0.0038; HR: 1.40; 95% CI:1.12-1.77). The difference in OS was also significant: 26.7 months versus 18.0 months for WT versus MT KRAS, respectively (p=0.0002; HR: 1.55; 95% CI: 1.23-1.96). Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that KRAS was an independent variable for both PFS and OS. Responses were observed in 126 patients (57.5%) with WT KRAS tumours and 76 patients (43.4%) with MT KRAS tumours (p=0.0054; OR: 1.77; 95% CI: 1.18-2.64). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE This analysis of the MACRO study suggests a prognostic role for tumour KRAS status in patients with mCRC treated with XELOX plus bevacizumab. For both PFS and OS, KRAS status was an independent factor in univariate and multivariate analyses.

Virulence profiles of bacteremic extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli: association with epidemiological and clinical features.

There is scarce data about the importance of phylogroups and virulence factors (VF) in bloodstream infections (BSI) caused by extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli (ESBLEC). A prospective multicenter Spanish cohort including 191 cases of BSI due to ESBLEC was studied. Phylogroups and 25 VF genes were investigated by PCR. ESBLEC were classified into clusters according to their virulence profiles. The association of phylogropus, VF, and clusters with epidemiological features were studied using multivariate analysis. Overall, 57.6%, 26.7%, and 15.7% of isolates belonged to A/B1, D and B2 phylogroups, respectively. By multivariate analysis (adjusted OR [95% CI]), virulence cluster C2 was independently associated with urinary tract source (5.05 [0.96-25.48]); cluster C4 with sources other than urinary of biliary tract (2.89 [1.05-7.93]), and cluster C5 with BSI in non-predisposed patients (2.80 [0.99-7.93]). Isolates producing CTX-M-9 group ESBLs and from phylogroup D predominated among cluster C2 and C5, while CTX-M-1 group of ESBL and phylogroup B2 predominantes among C4 isolates. These results suggest that host factors and previous antimicrobial use were more important than phylogroup or specific VF in the occurrence of BSI due to ESBLEC. However, some associations between virulence clusters and some specific epidemiological features were found.

Serodiagnosis of human neurocysticercosis using antigenic components of Taenia solium metacestodes derived from the unbound fraction from jacalin affinity chromatography

The aim of the present study was to analyse Taenia solium metacestode antigens that were derived from the unbound fraction of jacalin affinity chromatography and subsequent tert-octylphenoxy poly (oxyethylene) ethanol Triton X-114 (TX-114) partitioning in the diagnosis of human neurocysticercosis (NCC). Immunoassays were designed to detect T. solium-specific IgG antibodies by ELISA and immunoblot. Serum samples were collected from 132 individuals who were categorised as follows: 40 had NCC, 62 presented Taenia spp or other parasitic diseases and 30 were healthy individuals. The jacalin-unbound (J unbound ) fraction presented higher sensitivity and specificity rates than the jacalin-bound fraction and only this fraction was subjected to subsequent TX-114 partitioning, resulting in detergent (DJ unbound ) and aqueous (AJ unbound ) fractions. The ELISA sensitivity and specificity were 85% and 84.8% for J unbound , 92.5% and 93.5% for DJ unbound and 82.5% and 82.6% for AJ unbound . By immunoblot, the DJ unbound fraction showed 100% sensitivity and specificity and only serum samples from patients with NCC recognised the 50-70 kDa T. solium-specific components. We conclude that the DJ unbound fraction can serve as a useful tool for the differential immunodiagnosis of NCC by immunoblot.

The TT genotype of the STAT4 rs7574865 polymorphism is associated with high disease activity and disability in patients with early arthritis

BACKGROUND The number of copies of the HLA-DRB1 shared epitope, and the minor alleles of the STAT4 rs7574865 and the PTPN22 rs2476601 polymorphisms have all been linked with an increased risk of developing rheumatoid arthritis. In the present study, we investigated the effects of these genetic variants on disease activity and disability in patients with early arthritis. METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS We studied 640 patients with early arthritis (76% women; median age, 52 years), recording disease-related variables every 6 months during a 2-year follow-up. HLA-DRB1 alleles were determined by PCR-SSO, while rs7574865 and rs2476601 were genotyped with the Taqman 5' allelic discrimination assay. Multivariate analysis was performed using generalized estimating equations for repeated measures. After adjusting for confounding variables such as gender, age and ACPA, the TT genotype of rs7574865 in STAT4 was associated with increased disease activity (DAS28) as compared with the GG genotype (β coefficient [95% confidence interval] = 0.42 [0.01-0.83], p = 0.044). Conversely, the presence of the T allele of rs2476601 in PTPN22 was associated with diminished disease activity during follow-up in a dose-dependent manner (CT genotype = -0.27 [-0.56- -0.01], p = 0.042; TT genotype = -0.68 [-1.64- -0.27], p = 0.162). After adjustment for gender, age and disease activity, homozygosity for the T allele of rs7574865 in STAT4 was associated with greater disability as compared with the GG genotype. CONCLUSIONS Our data suggest that patients with early arthritis who are homozygous for the T allele of rs7574865 in STAT4 may develop a more severe form of the disease with increased disease activity and disability.

Estudi de la distribució de components i recobriment en comprimits farmacèutics mitjançant NIR-CI

La qualitat d’un producte elaborat és un factor important, tant pels consumidors, com pels òrgans reguladors que en defineixen normatives cada cop més estrictes. Iniciatives com la del PAT (Process Analytical Technology) en el sector farmacèutic, responen a aquestes necessitats. El PAT afavoreix la implantació de noves tècniques analítiques que facilitin el monitoratge i el control de paràmetres clau in-/on-line durant els processos de producció. En aquest sentit, el NIR-CI (Near Infrarred-Chemical Imaging) podria ser una eina molt útil en la millora de la qualitat de la indústria farmacèutica, ja que aprofita les avantatges del NIR com a tècnica analítica (ràpid, no invasiu, no destructiu) i les aplica a tota la superfície espacial de la mostra. És una tècnica capaç de proporcionar una gran quantitat d’informació, tant espectral com espacial, en una sola imatge. L’objectiu d’aquest treball és avaluar la capacitat de la tècnica NIR-CI, com a eina pel control de paràmetres de qualitat de comprimits farmacèutics. Concretament, s’han analitzat quantitativament la concentració i la distribució dels components (principi actiu i excipients) d’un comprimit farmacèutic amb i sense recobriment. A més, també s’ha determinat el gruix de la pel·lícula de laca de recobriment i la seva distribució a la superfície del comprimit. Per obtenir aquesta informació, es parteix d’imatges NIR-CI hiperespectrals dels comprimits. Per a l’extracció de les dades d’interès s’ha usat l’algoritme PLS en les diferents versions dels softwares Isys 5.0 i Unscrambler 9.8. La versió de l’Isys permet determinar la contribució de cada component pur a cada punt de la imatge, emprant únicament l’espectre del component en estudi. Amb la de l’Unscrambler, en canvi, es construeix un model de calibratge que, a partir d’unes mostres de referència, prediu la distribució del gruix de recobriment sobre la superfície del comprimit.

Predicting positive food challenges at the introduction of nuts in sensitised children

Rationale: Children with atopic diseases in early life are frequently found with positive IgE tests to nuts, without a history of previous ingestion. We aimed to identify risk factors for reactions to nuts at their first introduction. Methods: A detailed retrospective case note and database analysis was performed. Inclusion criteria were: patients aged 3 to 16 years who had had a standardized food challenge to peanut and/or tree nuts due to primary sensitisation to the nut (positive specific IgE or SPT). A detailed assessment was performed of factors relating to food challenge outcome with univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results: There were 98 food challenges (48% peanut, 52% tree nut) with 29 positive, 67 negative and 2 inconclusive challenges. A positive maternal history and a specific IgE > 2 kU/l were strongly associated with a significantly increased risk of a positive food challenge (OR 3.54; 95% CI 1.28 to 9.81; and OR 4.82; 95% CI 1.57 to 14.86; respectively). There was no significant association between the type of nut, age, presence of other food allergies, paternal or sibling atopic history, other atopic conditions or severity of previous reaction to other foods. Conclusions: We have demonstrated an association between the presence of a maternal atopic history and a specific IgE > 2 kU/l, and a significant increase in the likelihood of a positive food challenge in children with primary sensitisation to nuts. Although requiring further prospective validation we suggest these easily identifiable components should be considered when deciding the need for a nut challenge.

Increased audiovisual integration in cochlear-implanted deaf patients: independent components analysis of longitudinal positron emission tomography data.

It has been demonstrated in earlier studies that patients with a cochlear implant have increased abilities for audio-visual integration because the crude information transmitted by the cochlear implant requires the persistent use of the complementary speech information from the visual channel. The brain network for these abilities needs to be clarified. We used an independent components analysis (ICA) of the activation (H2 (15) O) positron emission tomography data to explore occipito-temporal brain activity in post-lingually deaf patients with unilaterally implanted cochlear implants at several months post-implantation (T1), shortly after implantation (T0) and in normal hearing controls. In between-group analysis, patients at T1 had greater blood flow in the left middle temporal cortex as compared with T0 and normal hearing controls. In within-group analysis, patients at T0 had a task-related ICA component in the visual cortex, and patients at T1 had one task-related ICA component in the left middle temporal cortex and the other in the visual cortex. The time courses of temporal and visual activities during the positron emission tomography examination at T1 were highly correlated, meaning that synchronized integrative activity occurred. The greater involvement of the visual cortex and its close coupling with the temporal cortex at T1 confirm the importance of audio-visual integration in more experienced cochlear implant subjects at the cortical level.