Inferring the biggest and best: a measurement model for applying recognition to evoke consideration sets and judge between multiple alternatives

It has long been supposed that preference judgments between sets of to-be-considered possibilities are made by means of initially winnowing down the most promising-looking alternatives to form smaller “consideration sets” (Howard, 1963; Wright & Barbour, 1977). In preference choices with >2 options, it is standard to assume that a “consideration set”, based upon some simple criterion, is established to reduce the options available. Inferential judgments, in contrast, have more frequently been investigated in situations in which only two possibilities need to be considered (e.g., which of these two cities is the larger?) Proponents of the “fast and frugal” approach to decision-making suggest that such judgments are also made on the basis of limited, simple criteria. For example, if only one of two cities is recognized and the task is to judge which city has the larger population, the recognition heuristic states that the recognized city should be selected. A multinomial processing tree model is outlined which provides the basis for estimating the extent to which recognition is used as a criterion in establishing a consideration set for inferential judgments between three possible options.

Climate determinism revisited: multiple equilibria in a complex climate model

Multiple equilibria in a coupled ocean–atmosphere–sea ice general circulation model (GCM) of an aquaplanet with many degrees of freedom are studied. Three different stable states are found for exactly the same set of parameters and external forcings: a cold state in which a polar sea ice cap extends into the midlatitudes; a warm state, which is ice free; and a completely sea ice–covered “snowball” state. Although low-order energy balance models of the climate are known to exhibit intransitivity (i.e., more than one climate state for a given set of governing equations), the results reported here are the first to demonstrate that this is a property of a complex coupled climate model with a consistent set of equations representing the 3D dynamics of the ocean and atmosphere. The coupled model notably includes atmospheric synoptic systems, large-scale circulation of the ocean, a fully active hydrological cycle, sea ice, and a seasonal cycle. There are no flux adjustments, with the system being solely forced by incoming solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere. It is demonstrated that the multiple equilibria owe their existence to the presence of meridional structure in ocean heat transport: namely, a large heat transport out of the tropics and a relatively weak high-latitude transport. The associated large midlatitude convergence of ocean heat transport leads to a preferred latitude at which the sea ice edge can rest. The mechanism operates in two very different ocean circulation regimes, suggesting that the stabilization of the large ice cap could be a robust feature of the climate system. Finally, the role of ocean heat convergence in permitting multiple equilibria is further explored in simpler models: an atmospheric GCM coupled to a slab mixed layer ocean and an energy balance model

A semi-distributed ntegrated itrogen model for multiple source assessment in tchments (INCA): Part I — model structure and process equations

A new model has been developed for assessing multiple sources of nitrogen in catchments. The model (INCA) is process based and uses reaction kinetic equations to simulate the principal mechanisms operating. The model allows for plant uptake, surface and sub-surface pathways and can simulate up to six land uses simultaneously. The model can be applied to catchment as a semi-distributed simulation and has an inbuilt multi-reach structure for river systems. Sources of nitrogen can be from atmospheric deposition, from the terrestrial environment (e.g. agriculture, leakage from forest systems etc.), from urban areas or from direct discharges via sewage or intensive farm units. The model is a daily simulation model and can provide information in the form of time series at key sites, or as profiles down river systems or as statistical distributions. The process model is described and in a companion paper the model is applied to the River Tywi catchment in South Wales and the Great Ouse in Bedfordshire.

A multiple error-correction model of housing supply

This paper considers supply dynamics in the context of the Irish residential market. The analysis, in a multiple error-correction framework, reveals that although developers did respond to disequilibrium in supply, the rate of adjustment was relatively slow. In contrast, however, disequilibrium in demand did not impact upon supply, suggesting that inelastic supply conditions could explain the prolonged nature of the boom in the Irish market. Increased elasticity in the later stages of the boom may have been a contributory factor in the extent of the house price falls observed in recent years.

The greening of Arabia: multiple opportunities for human occupation of the Arabian peninsula during the Late Pleistocene inferred from an ensemble of climate model simulations

Climate models are potentially useful tools for addressing human dispersals and demographic change. The Arabian Peninsula is becoming increasingly significant in the story of human dispersals out of Africa during the Late Pleistocene. Although characterised largely by arid environments today, emerging climate records indicate that the peninsula was wetter many times in the past, suggesting that the region may have been inhabited considerably more than hitherto thought. Explaining the origins and spatial distribution of increased rainfall is challenging because palaeoenvironmental research in the region is in an early developmental stage. We address environmental oscillations by assembling and analysing an ensemble of five global climate models (CCSM3, COSMOS, HadCM3, KCM, and NorESM). We focus on precipitation, as the variable is key for the development of lakes, rivers and savannas. The climate models generated here were compared with published palaeoenvironmental data such as palaeolakes, speleothems and alluvial fan records as a means of validation. All five models showed, to varying degrees, that the Arabia Peninsula was significantly wetter than today during the Last Interglacial (130 ka and 126/125 ka timeslices), and that the main source of increased rainfall was from the North African summer monsoon rather than the Indian Ocean monsoon or from Mediterranean climate patterns. Where available, 104 ka (MIS 5c), 56 ka (early MIS 3) and 21 ka (LGM) timeslices showed rainfall was present but not as extensive as during the Last Interglacial. The results favour the hypothesis that humans potentially moved out of Africa and into Arabia on multiple occasions during pluvial phases of the Late Pleistocene.

Quasiclassical trajectory calculations of collisional energy transfer in propane systems: multiple direct-encounter hard-sphere model

Quasiclassical trajectory calculations of collisional energy transfer from highly vibrationally excited propane + rare gas systems are reported. This work extends our hard-sphere model (A. Linhananta and K. F. Lim, Phys. Chem. Chem. Phys., 2000, 2, 1385) to examine the variation of the internal energy during collisions with a rare bath gas. This was accomplished by recording the vibrational and rotational energy of propane after each atom–atom encounter during trajectory simulations of propane + rare gas systems. This provides detailed information of the energy flow during a collision. It was found that collisions with small number of encounters transfer energy efficiently, whereas those with many encounters do not. Detailed analyses reveal that the former collisions arise from trajectories with high initial impact parameter, whereas the latter have small initial impact parameter. The reason behind this is the dependence of collision energy transfer (CET) of large polyatomic molecules on their shape. This is connected to the well-known role of rotational energy transfer (RET) as a gateway for CET.

Constructing a Structural Macroeconomic Model Using Multiple Techniques

This project constructs a structural model of the United States Economy. This task is tackled in two separate ways: first econometric methods and then using a neural network, both with a structure that mimics the structure of the U.S. economy. The structural model tracks the performance of U.S. GDP rather well in a dynamic simulation, with an average error of just over 1 percent. The neural network performed well, but suffered from some theoretical, as well as some implementation issues.

Comparing multiple discrepancies theory to affective models of subjective wellbeing

The Subjective Wellbeing (SWB) literature is replete with competing theories detailing the mechanisms underlying the construction and maintenance of SWB. The current study aimed to compare and contrast two of these approaches: multiple discrepancies theory (MDT) and an affective-cognitive theory of SWB. MDT posits SWB to be the result of perceived discrepancies between multiple standards of comparison. By contrast, affective-cognitive theory asserts that SWB is primarily influenced by trait affect, and indirectly influenced by personality and cognition through trait affect. Participants comprised 387 individuals who responded to the 5th longitudinal survey of the Australian Unity Wellbeing Index. Results of Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) indicated the poorest fit to the data for the MDT model. The affective-cognitive model also did not provide a good fit to the data. A purely affective model provided the best fit to the data, was the most parsimonious, and explained 66% of variance in SWB.

3D sparse feature model using short baseline stereo and multiple view registration

This paper outlines a methodology to generate a distinctive object representation offline, using short-baseline stereo fundamentals to triangulate highly descriptive object features in multiple pairs of stereo images. A group of sparse 2.5D perspective views are built and the multiple views are then fused into a single sparse 3D model using a common 3D shape registration technique. Having prior knowledge, such as the proposed sparse feature model, is useful when detecting an object and estimating its pose for real-time systems like augmented reality.

Learning people movement model from multiple cameras for behaviour recognition

In surveillance systems for monitoring people behaviours, it is important to build systems that can adapt to the signatures of people's tasks and movements in the environment. At the same time, it is important to cope with noisy observations produced by a set of cameras with possibly different characteristics. In previous work, we have implemented a distributed surveillance system designed for complex indoor environments [1]. The system uses the Abstract Hidden Markov mEmory Model (AHMEM) for modelling and specifying complex human behaviours that can take place in the environment. Given a sequence of observations from a set of cameras, the system employs approximate probabilistic inference to compute the likelihood of different possible behaviours in real-time. This paper describes the techniques that can be used to learn the different camera noise models and the human movement models to be used in this system. The system is able to monitor and classify people behaviours as data is being gathered, and we provide classification results showing the system is able to identify behaviours of people from their movement signatures.

Recognising behaviours of multiple people with hierarchical probabilistic model and statistical data association

Recognising behaviours of multiple people, especially high-level behaviours, is an important task in surveillance systems. When the reliable assignment of people to the set of observations is unavailable, this task becomes complicated. To solve this task, we present an approach, in which the hierarchical hidden Markov model (HHMM) is used for modeling the behaviour of each person and the joint probabilistic data association filters (JPDAF) is applied for data association. The main contributions of this paper lie in the integration of multiple HHMMs for recognising high-level behaviours of multiple people and the construction of the Rao-Blackwellised particle filters (RBPF) for approximate inference. Preliminary experimental results in a real environment show the robustness of our integrated method in behaviour recognition and its advantage over the use of Kalman filter in tracking people.

Multiple perspectives framework to model complex processes

The growing complexity of organisations has resulted in collaboration between multiple stakeholders becoming a challenging and critical issue that organisations must address in order to ensure their practices are sustainable. A multiple-case field study was conducted in order to demonstrate the proposed methodology of analysis and examination for knowledge-based systems in an actual organisational setting. The use of a multiple-perspective framework to improve understanding of the complex relationships in such systems was examined. In particular, the case study focused on the Australian Government’s Nation Building Economic Stimulus Plan (NBESP) which provided $1.9 billion to construct social housing across the State over two years. The results suggest that the use of a multi-perspective framework is appropriate and that there is a need for attention to be paid to the economic perspective.

A bayesian nonparametric joint factor model for learning shared and individual subspaces from multiple data sources

Joint analysis of multiple data sources is becoming increasingly popular in transfer learning, multi-task learning and cross-domain data mining. One promising approach to model the data jointly is through learning the shared and individual factor subspaces. However, performance of this approach depends on the subspace dimensionalities and the level of sharing needs to be specified a priori. To this end, we propose a nonparametric joint factor analysis framework for modeling multiple related data sources. Our model utilizes the hierarchical beta process as a nonparametric prior to automatically infer the number of shared and individual factors. For posterior inference, we provide a Gibbs sampling scheme using auxiliary variables. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is validated through its application on two real world problems - transfer learning in text and image retrieval.