Unemployment, growth and fiscal policy: new insights on the hysteresis hypothesis

We develop a growth model with unemployment due to imperfections in the labor market. In this model, wage inertia and balanced budget rules cause a complementarity between capital and employment capable of explaining the existence of multiple equilibrium paths. Hysteresis is viewed as the result of a selection between these diferent equilibrium paths. We use this model to argue that, in contrast to the US, those fiscal policies followed by most of the European countries after the shocks of the 1970’s may have played a central role in generating hysteresis.

Testing for Proportional Hazards with Unrestricted Univariate Unobserved Heterogeneity

We develop tests of the proportional hazards assumption, with respect to a continuous covariate, in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity with unknown distribution at the individual observation level. The proposed tests are specially powerful against ordered alternatives useful for modeling non-proportional hazards situations. By contrast to the case when the heterogeneity distribution is known up to …nite dimensional parameters, the null hypothesis for the current problem is similar to a test for absence of covariate dependence. However, the two testing problems di¤er in the nature of relevant alternative hypotheses. We develop tests for both the problems against ordered alternatives. Small sample performance and an application to real data highlight the usefulness of the framework and methodology.

A New Test of the Real Interest Rate Parity Hypothesis: Bounds Approach and Structural Breaks

We test the real interest rate parity hypothesis using data for the G7 countries over the period 1970-2008. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we utilize the ARDL bounds approach of Pesaran et al. (2001) which allows us to overcome uncertainty about the order of integration of real interest rates. Second, we test for structural breaks in the underlying relationship using the multiple structural breaks test of Bai and Perron (1998, 2003). Our results indicate significant parameter instability and suggest that, despite the advances in economic and financial integration, real interest rate parity has not fully recovered from a breakdown in the 1980s.

Monophyletic origin of multiple clonal lineages in an asexual fish (Poecilia formosa).

Despite the advantage of avoiding the costs of sexual reproduction, asexual vertebrates are very rare and often considered evolutionarily disadvantaged when compared to sexual species. Asexual species, however, may have advantages when colonizing (new) habitats or competing with sexual counterparts. They are also evolutionary older than expected, leaving the question whether asexual vertebrates are not only rare because of their 'inferior' mode of reproduction but also because of other reasons. A paradigmatic model system is the unisexual Amazon molly, Poecilia formosa, that arose by hybridization of the Atlantic molly, Poecilia mexicana, as the maternal ancestor, and the sailfin molly, Poecilia latipinna, as the paternal ancestor. Our extensive crossing experiments failed to resynthesize asexually reproducing (gynogenetic) hybrids confirming results of previous studies. However, by producing diploid eggs, female F(1) -hybrids showed apparent preadaptation to gynogenesis. In a range-wide analysis of mitochondrial sequences, we examined the origin of P. formosa. Our analyses point to very few or even a single origin(s) of its lineage, which is estimated to be approximately 120,000 years old. A monophyletic origin was supported from nuclear microsatellite data. Furthermore, a considerable degree of genetic variation, apparent by high levels of clonal microsatellite diversity, was found. Our molecular phylogenetic evidence and the failure to resynthesize the gynogenetic P. formosa together with the old age of the species indicate that some unisexual vertebrates might be rare not because they suffer the long-term consequences of clonal reproduction but because they are only very rarely formed as a result of complex genetic preconditions necessary to produce viable and fertile clonal genomes and phenotypes ('rare formation hypothesis').

Testing kin selection with sex allocation data in eusocial hymenoptera

Sex allocation data in eusocial Hymenoptera (ants, bees and wasps) provide an excellent opportunity to assess the effectiveness of kin selection, because queens and workers differ in their relatedness to females and males. The first studies on sex allocation in eusocial Hymenoptera compared population sex investment ratios across species. Female-biased investment in monogyne (= with single-queen colonies) populations of ants suggested that workers manipulate sex allocation according to their higher relatedness to females than males (relatedness asymmetry). However, several factors may confound these comparisons across species. First, variation in relatedness asymmetry is typically associated with major changes in breeding system and life history that may also affect sex allocation. Secondly, the relative cost of females and males is difficult to estimate across sexually dimorphic taxa, such as ants. Thirdly, each species in the comparison may not represent an independent data point, because of phylogenetic relationships among species. Recently, stronger evidence that workers control sex allocation has been provided by intraspecific studies of sex ratio variation across colonies. In several species of eusocial Hymenoptera, colonies with high relatedness asymmetry produced mostly females, in contrast to colonies with low relatedness asymmetry which produced mostly males. Additional signs of worker control were found by investigating proximate mechanisms of sex ratio manipulation in ants and wasps. However, worker control is not always effective, and further manipulative experiments will be needed to disentangle the multiple evolutionary factors and processes affecting sex allocation in eusocial Hymenoptera.

Imaging Properties of MS Lesions Correlate with Attention Deficits in Early Multiple Sclerosis

Introduction: Cognitive impairment affects 40-65% of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients, often since early stages of the disease (relapsing remitting MS, RRMS). Frequently affected functions are memory, attention or executive abilities but the most sensitive measure of cognitive deficits in early MS is the information processing speed (Amato, 2008). MRI has been extensively exploited to investigate the substrate of cognitive dysfunction in MS but the underlying physiopathological mechanisms remain unclear. White matter lesion load, whole-brain atrophy and cortical lesions' number play a role but correlations are in some cases modest (Rovaris, 2006; Calabrese, 2009). In this study, we aimed at characterizing and correlating the T1 relaxation times of cortical and sub-cortical lesions with cognitive deficits detected by neuropsychological tests in a group of very early RR MS patients. Methods: Ten female patients with very early RRMS (age: 31.6 ±4.7y; disease duration: 3.8 ±1.9y; EDSS disability score: 1.8 ±0.4) and 10 age- and gender-matched healthy volunteers (mean age: 31.2 ±5.8y) were included in the study. All participants underwent the following neuropsychological tests: Rao's Brief Repeatable Battery of Neuropsychological tests (BRB-N), Stockings of Cambridge, Trail Making Test (TMT, part A and B), Boston Naming Test, Hooper Visual Organization Test and copy of the Rey-Osterrieth Complex Figure. Within 2 weeks from neuropsychological assessment, participants underwent brain MRI at 3T (Magnetom Trio a Tim System, Siemens, Germany) using a 32-channel head coil. The imaging protocol included 3D sequences with 1x1x1.2 mm3 resolution and 256x256x160 matrix, except for axial 2D-FLAIR: -DIR (T2-weighted, suppressing both WM and CSF; Pouwels, 2006) -MPRAGE (T1-weighted; Mugler, 1991) -MP2RAGE (T1-weighted with T1 maps; Marques, 2010) -FLAIR SPACE (only for patient 4-10, T2-weighted; Mugler, 2001) -2D Axial FLAIR (0.9x0.9x2.5 mm3, 256x256x44 matrix). Lesions were identified by one experienced neurologist and radiologist using all contrasts, manually contoured and assigned to regional locations (cortical or sub-cortical). Lesion number, volume and T1 relaxation time were calculated for lesions in each contrast and in a merged mask representing the union of the lesions from all contrasts. T1 relaxation times of lesions were normalized with the mean T1 value in corresponding control regions of the healthy subjects. Statistical analysis was performed using GraphPad InStat software. Cognitive scores were compared between patients and controls with paired t-tests; p values ≤ 0.05 were considered significant. Spearmann correlation tests were performed between the cognitive tests, which differed significantly between patients and controls, and lesions' i) number ii) volume iii) T1 relaxation time iv) disease duration and v) years of study. Results: Cortical and sub-cortical lesions count, T1 values and volume are reported in Table 1 (A and B). All early RRMS patients showed cortical lesions (CLs) and the majority consisted of CLs type I (lesions with a cortical component extending to the sub-cortical tissue). The rest of cortical lesions were characterized as type II (intra-cortical lesions). No type III/IV lesions (large sub-pial lesions) were detected. RRMS patients were slightly less educated (13.5±2.5y vs. 16.3±1.8y of study, p=0.02) than the controls. Signs of cortical dysfunction (i.e. impaired learning, language, visuo-spatial skills or gnosis) were rare in all patients. However, patients showed on average lower scores on measures of visual attention and information processing speed (TMT-part A: p=0.01; TMT-part B: p=0.006; PASAT-included in the BRB-N: p=0.04). The T1 relaxation values of CLs type I negatively correlated with the TMT-part A score (r=0.78, p<0.01). The correlations of TMT-part B score and PASAT score with T1 relaxation time of lesions as well and the correlation between TMT-part A, TMT-part B and PASAT score with lesions' i) number ii) volume iii) disease duration and iv) years of study did not reach significance. In order to preclude possible influences from partial volume effects on the T1 values, the correlation between lesion volume and T1 value of CLs type I was calculated; no correlation was found, suggesting that partial volume effects did not affect the statistics. Conclusions: The present pilot study reports for the first time the presence and the T1 characteristics at 3 T of cortical lesions in very early RRMS (< 6 y disease duration). It also shows that CLS type I represents the most frequent cortical lesion type in this cohort of RRMS patients. In addition, it reveals a negative correlation between the attentional test TMT-part A and the T1 properties of cortical lesions type I. In other words, lower attention deficits are concomitant with longer T1-relaxation time in cortical lesions. In respect to this last finding, it could be speculated that long relaxation time correspond to a certain degree of tissue loss that is enough to stimulate compensatory mechanisms. This hypothesis is in line with previous fMRI studies showing functional compensatory mechanisms to help maintaining normal or sub-normal attention performances in RR MS patients (Penner, 2003).

Schistosomiasis protects against multiple sclerosis

The incidences of schistosomiasis and multiple sclerosis (MS) are mutually exclusive worldwide suggesting that schistosomiasis may offer protection against the induction of the immune-mediated disease, MS. Recent studies using the mouse model of MS, experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis, support a direct suppression of the onset of MS by chronic Schistosoma mansoni infection. Self-reactive Th1 but not Th2 responses develop in infected mice immunized with myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein albeit at reduced levels indicating that the induction of auto-reactive T cells is not abolished nor phenotypically altered. CNS infiltration by inflammatory cells, particularly macrophages, is significantly reduced in S. mansoni-infected, immunized mice compared to uninfected, immunized mice. Because activated macrophages are crucial to the induction of clinical disease, these findings support the hypothesis that differences in macrophage activation may contribute to the reduced incidence and delayed progression of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis during schistosomiasis.

Genetic variability of Aedes aegypti in the Americas using a mitochondrial gene: evidence of multiple introductions

To analyze the genetic relatedness and phylogeographic structure of Aedes aegypti, we collected samples from 36 localities throughout the Americas (Brazil, Peru, Venezuela, Guatemala, US), three from Africa (Guinea, Senegal, Uganda), and three from Asia (Singapore, Cambodia, Tahiti). Amplification and sequencing of a fragment of the mitochondrial NADH dehydrogenase subunit 4 gene identified 20 distinct haplotypes, of which 14 are exclusive to the Americas, four to African/Asian countries, one is common to the Americas and Africa, and one to the Americas and Asia. Nested clade analysis (NCA), pairwise distribution, statistical parsimony, and maximum parsimony analyses were used to infer evolutionary and historic processes, and to estimate phylogenetic relationships among haplotypes. Two clusters were found in all the analyses. Haplotypes clustered in the two clades were separated by eight mutational steps. Phylogeographic structure detected by the NCA was consistent with distant colonization within one clade and fragmentation followed by range expansion via long distance dispersal in the other. Three percent of nucleotide divergence between these two clades is suggestive of a gene pool division that may support the hypothesis of occurrence of two subspecies of Ae. aegypti in the Americas.

Preserved decision making ability in early multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to assess decision making in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) at the earliest clinically detectable time point of the disease. METHODS: Patients with definite MS (n = 109) or with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS, n = 56), a disease duration of 3 months to 5 years, and no or only minor neurological impairment (Expanded Disability Status Scale [EDSS] score 0-2.5) were compared to 50 healthy controls using the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). RESULTS: The performance of definite MS, CIS patients, and controls was comparable for the two main outcomes of the IGT (learning index: p = 0.7; total score: p = 0.6). The IGT learning index was influenced by the educational level and the co-occurrence of minor depression. CIS and MS patients developing a relapse during an observation period of 15 months dated from IGT testing demonstrated a lower learning index in the IGT than patients who had no exacerbation (p = 0.02). When controlling for age, gender and education, the difference between relapsing and non-relapsing patients was at the limit of significance (p = 0.06). CONCLUSION: Decision making in a task mimicking real life decisions is generally preserved in early MS patients as compared to controls. A possible consequence of MS relapsing activity in the impairment of decision making ability is also suspected in the early phase of MS.

Validation of the spanish version of the multiple sclerosis international quality of life (musiqol) questionnaire

BACKGROUND: The Multiple Sclerosis International Quality Of Life (MusiQoL) questionnaire, a 31-item, multidimensional, self-administrated questionnaire that is available in 14 languages including Spanish, has been validated using a large international sample. We investigated the validity and reliability of the Spanish version of MusiQoL in Spain. METHODS: Consecutive patients with different types and severities of multiple sclerosis (MS) were recruited from 22 centres across Spain. All patients completed the MusiQoL questionnaire, the 36-Item Short Form (SF-36) health survey, and a symptoms checklist at baseline and 21 days later. External validity, internal consistency, reliability and reproducibility were tested. RESULTS: A total of 224 Spanish patients were evaluated. Dimensions of MusiQoL generally demonstrated a high internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha: 0.70-0.92 for all but two MusiQoL domain scores). External validity testing revealed that the MusiQoL index score correlated significantly with all SF-36 dimension scores (Pearson's correlation: 0.46-0.76), reproducibility was satisfactory (intraclass correlation coefficient: 0.60-0.91), acceptability was high, and the time taken to complete the 31-item questionnaire was reasonable (mean [standard deviation]: 9.8 [11.8] minutes). CONCLUSIONS: The Spanish version of the MusiQoL questionnaire appears to be a valid and reliable instrument for measuring quality of life in patients with MS in Spain and constitutes a useful instrument to measure health-related quality of life in the clinical setting.

Significant genetic and phenotypic changes arising from clonal growth of a single spore of an arbuscular mycorrhizal fungus over multiple generations.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) are highly successful plant symbionts. They reproduce clonally producing multinucleate spores. It has been suggested that some AMF harbor genetically different nuclei. However, recent advances in sequencing the Glomus irregulare genome have indicated very low within-fungus polymorphism. We tested the null hypothesis that, with no genetic differences among nuclei, no significant genetic or phenotypic variation would occur among clonal single spore lines generated from one initial AMF spore. Furthermore, no additional variation would be expected in the following generations of single spore lines. Genetic diversity contained in one initial spore repeatedly gave rise to genetically different variants of the fungus with novel phenotypes. The genetic changes represented quantitative changes in allele frequencies, most probably as a result of changes in the frequency of genetic variation partitioned on different nuclei. The genetic and phenotypic variation is remarkable, given that it arose repeatedly from one clonal individual. Our results highlight the dynamic nature of AMF genetics. Even though within-fungus genetic variation is low, some is probably partitioned among nuclei and potentially causes changes in the phenotype. Our results are important for understanding AMF genetics, as well as for researchers and biotechnologists hoping to use AMF genetic diversity for the improvement of AMF inoculum.

HERV-W polymorphism in chromosome X is associated with multiple sclerosis risk and with differential expression of MSRV.

BACKGROUND Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune demyelinating disease that occurs more frequently in women than in men. Multiple Sclerosis Associated Retrovirus (MSRV) is a member of HERV-W, a multicopy human endogenous retroviral family repeatedly implicated in MS pathogenesis. MSRV envelope protein is elevated in the serum of MS patients and induces inflammation and demyelination but, in spite of this pathogenic potential, its exact genomic origin and mechanism of generation are unknown. A possible link between the HERV-W copy on chromosome Xq22.3, that contains an almost complete open reading frame, and the gender differential prevalence in MS has been suggested. RESULTS MSRV transcription levels were higher in MS patients than in controls (U-Mann-Whitney; p = 0.004). Also, they were associated with the clinical forms (Spearman; p = 0.0003) and with the Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS) (Spearman; p = 0.016). By mapping a 3 kb region in Xq22.3, including the HERV-W locus, we identified three polymorphisms: rs6622139 (T/C), rs6622140 (G/A) and rs1290413 (G/A). After genotyping 3127 individuals (1669 patients and 1458 controls) from two different Spanish cohorts, we found that in women rs6622139 T/C was associated with MS susceptibility: [χ2; p = 0.004; OR (95% CI) = 0.50 (0.31-0.81)] and severity, since CC women presented lower MSSS scores than CT (U-Mann-Whitney; p = 0.039) or TT patients (U-Mann-Whitney; p = 0.031). Concordantly with the susceptibility conferred in women, rs6622139*T was associated with higher MSRV expression (U-Mann-Whitney; p = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS Our present work supports the hypothesis of a direct involvement of HERV-W/MSRV in MS pathogenesis, identifying a genetic marker on chromosome X that could be one of the causes underlying the gender differences in MS.

Fracture imaging within a granitic rock aquifer using multiple-offset single-hole and cross-hole GPR reflection data

The sparsely spaced highly permeable fractures of the granitic rock aquifer at Stang-er-Brune (Brittany, France) form a well-connected fracture network of high permeability but unknown geometry. Previous work based on optical and acoustic logging together with single-hole and cross-hole flowmeter data acquired in 3 neighbouring boreholes (70-100 m deep) has identified the most important permeable fractures crossing the boreholes and their hydraulic connections. To constrain possible flow paths by estimating the geometries of known and previously unknown fractures, we have acquired, processed and interpreted multifold, single- and cross-hole GPR data using 100 and 250 MHz antennas. The GPR data processing scheme consisting of timezero corrections, scaling, bandpass filtering and F-X deconvolution, eigenvector filtering, muting, pre-stack Kirchhoff depth migration and stacking was used to differentiate fluid-filled fracture reflections from source generated noise. The final stacked and pre-stack depth-migrated GPR sections provide high-resolution images of individual fractures (dipping 30-90°) in the surroundings (2-20 m for the 100 MHz antennas; 2-12 m for the 250 MHz antennas) of each borehole in a 2D plane projection that are of superior quality to those obtained from single-offset sections. Most fractures previously identified from hydraulic testing can be correlated to reflections in the single-hole data. Several previously unknown major near vertical fractures have also been identified away from the boreholes.

Corticosterone regulates multiple colour traits in Lacerta [Zootoca] vivipara males.

Ornamental colours usually evolve as honest signals of quality, which is supported by the fact that they frequently depend on individual condition. It has generally been suggested that some, but not all types of ornamental colours are condition dependent, indicating that different evolutionary mechanisms underlie the evolution of multiple types of ornamental colours even when these are exhibited by the same species. Stress hormones, which negatively affect condition, have been shown to affect colour traits based on different pigments and structures, suggesting that they mediate condition dependence of multiple ornament types both among and within individuals. However, studies investigating effects of stress hormones on different ornament types within individuals are lacking, and thus, evidence for this hypothesis is scant. Here, we investigated whether corticosterone mediates condition dependence of multiple ornaments by manipulating corticosterone levels and body condition (via food availability) using a two-factorial design and by assessing their effect on multiple colour traits in male common lizards. Corticosterone negatively affected ventral melanin- and carotenoid-based coloration, whereas food availability did not affect coloration, despite its significant effect on body condition. The corticosterone effect on melanin- and carotenoid-based coloration demonstrates the condition dependence of both ornaments. Moreover, corticosterone affected ventral coloration and had no effect on the nonsexually selected dorsal coloration, showing specific effects of corticosterone on ornamental ventral colours. This suggests that corticosterone simultaneously mediates condition dependence of multiple colour traits and that it therefore accounts for covariation among them, which may influence their evolution via correlational selection.

Testing the predictive adaptive response in a host-parasite system

1. Harsh environmental conditions experienced during development can reduce the performance of the same individuals in adulthood. However, the 'predictive adaptive response' hypothesis postulates that if individuals adapt their phenotype during development to the environments where they are likely to live in the future, individuals exposed to harsh conditions in early life perform better when encountering the same harsh conditions in adulthood compared to those never exposed to these conditions before. 2. Using the common vole (Microtus arvalis) as study organism, we tested how exposure to flea parasitism during the juvenile stage affects the physiology (haematocrit, resistance to oxidative stress, resting metabolism, spleen mass, and testosterone), morphology (body mass, testis mass) and motor performance (open field activity and swimming speed) of the same individuals when infested with fleas in adulthood. According to the 'predictive adaptive response' hypothesis, we predicted that voles parasitized at the adult stage would perform better if they had already been parasitized with fleas at the juvenile stage. 3. We found that voles exposed to fleas in adulthood had a higher metabolic rate if already exposed to fleas when juvenile, compared to voles free of fleas when juvenile and voles free of fleas in adulthood. Independently of juvenile parasitism, adult parasitism impaired adult haematocrit and motor performances. Independently of adult parasitism, juvenile parasitism slowed down crawling speed in adult female voles. 4. Our results suggest that juvenile parasitism has long-term effects that do not protect from the detrimental effects of adult parasitism. On the contrary, experiencing parasitism in early-life incurs additional costs upon adult parasitism measured in terms of higher energy expenditure, rather than inducing an adaptive shift in the developmental trajectory. 5. Hence, our study provides experimental evidence for long term costs of parasitism. We found no support for a predictive adaptive response in this host-parasite system.