Scenario Planning and Evaluation of Pricing Strategies in the Portuguese Bulk LPG Market

Portugal has the largest LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) share of primary energy demand in the EU (about 5%). Due to the increasing international cost of LPG in the last years and the high price sensitivity of the consumers the preference for substitute energy sources in new and existing consumers has been increasing. To select the kind of energy, some consumer estimate and compare the total costs while others follow agents (equipment sellers) recommendations. It takes time to build agents perception about the most advantageous source of energy, which is seen as an important resource that drives client resource accumulation and retention. Marketing strategies have to take into consideration some market dynamic effects derived from the accumulation and depletion of these resources. A simple system dynamics model was built, combined with Economic Value Added framework, to evaluate some pricing strategies under different scenarios of LPG international cost.

Enterprise Resource Planning governamental: a percepção dos servidores atuantes no Projeto Ciclo do Ministério da Justiça quanto à implementação

Indubitavelmente, a implementação de sistemas de gestão integrada é fator consolidado em empresas privadas; no entanto, em empresas públicas é relativamente recente e inovadora. Em 2009, o Ministério da Justiça (MJ) foi um dos pioneiros ao firmar parceria com a Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN) para a implantação de sistemas de gestão integrada. Com o decorrer dos processos de implementação surge a necessidade de identificar se o acordo surtiu os efeitos a que se destinou, bem como é pertinente a análise da implementação de um Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) governamental em uma empresa pública, haja vista que existe uma tendência de que se repita em outras instituições governamentais. Assim, o principal objetivo deste artigo é identificar a percepção dos usuários quanto ao processo de implementação de sistemas integrados de gestão vinculados ao Projeto Ciclo, no âmbito da Secretaria Executiva do MJ, destacando suas principais dificuldades e benefícios. A fim de atingir o objetivo da pesquisa foi realizada uma pesquisa quali-quantitativa, cujo procedimento técnico foi o estudo de caso. Verificou-se que os usuários do sistema reconhecem sua importância como apoio à tomada de decisão, que estão cientes do papel que desempenham no processo de implementação e que a tecnologia da informação (TI) é fundamental para se obter melhoria nos processos executados. Ademais, percebe-se os avanços que um ERP governamental pode proporcionar a empresas públicas, destacando-se o planejamento e a confiabilidade das informações.

An appraisal of the health planning method proposed by the Pan-American Health Organization for Latin America

A brief description of the main features of the health planning technique developed by the "Centro de Estudios del Desarrollo" (CENDES) in Venezuela, and proposed by the Pan-American Health Organization for use in Latin America, is presented. This presentation is followed by an appraisal of the planning method which includes comments both upon its positive aspects and upon its negative points. Comments are also made referring to other recent publications of the WHO/PAHO on health planning. In conclusion, the CENDES technique is considered a health planning method of great potential for use especially in underdeveloped areas, the success of its application depending upon the hability of the health planners to introduce the necessary modifications to adapt to the local circunstamces.

Notes on health care planning in Latin America and the Caribbean

Attention is called to the fact that the efforts to improve health of populations in Latin America have generally failed. The inequality in the distribution of ill-health is great. The authors accept the fact that the lack of resources available to the health sector may be a restriction towards the improvement of the situation, but they argue that a much more important issue is the misuse of such resources and their maldistribution within the health sector. The lack of integration and coordination between the health services, the conflict of public and private health systems, the under-utilization of existing services and the gap between planning and real implementation are discussed.

Compression Efficiency Analysis of Wyner-Ziv Video Coding with Motion Compensated Side Information Interpolation

The Wyner-Ziv video coding (WZVC) rate distortion performance is highly dependent on the quality of the side information, an estimation of the original frame, created at the decoder. This paper, characterizes the WZVC efficiency when motion compensated frame interpolation (MCFI) techniques are used to generate the side information, a difficult problem in WZVC especially because the decoder only has available some reference decoded frames. The proposed WZVC compression efficiency rate model relates the power spectral of the estimation error to the accuracy of the MCFI motion field. Then, some interesting conclusions may be derived related to the impact of the motion field smoothness and the correlation to the true motion trajectories on the compression performance.

Statistical motion learning for improved transform domain Wyner-Ziv video coding

Wyner - Ziv (WZ) video coding is a particular case of distributed video coding (DVC), the recent video coding paradigm based on the Slepian - Wolf and Wyner - Ziv theorems which exploits the source temporal correlation at the decoder and not at the encoder as in predictive video coding. Although some progress has been made in the last years, WZ video coding is still far from the compression performance of predictive video coding, especially for high and complex motion contents. The WZ video codec adopted in this study is based on a transform domain WZ video coding architecture with feedback channel-driven rate control, whose modules have been improved with some recent coding tools. This study proposes a novel motion learning approach to successively improve the rate-distortion (RD) performance of the WZ video codec as the decoding proceeds, making use of the already decoded transform bands to improve the decoding process for the remaining transform bands. The results obtained reveal gains up to 2.3 dB in the RD curves against the performance for the same codec without the proposed motion learning approach for high motion sequences and long group of pictures (GOP) sizes.

Acompanhamento da construção do Hotel Europa Plaza, em Lisboa

O presente relatório de estágio apresenta-se como Trabalho Final de Mestrado, realizado no âmbito do Mestrado em Engenharia Civil, do Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa e tem como objectivo apresentar as actividades desenvolvidas durante o mesmo. O estágio de 4 meses de duração, iniciado em Março de 2011, foi realizado na empresa FICOPE - Fiscalização, Coordenação e Projectos de Engenharia, Lda., onde o estagiário integrou a equipa de fiscalização para a edificação do Hotel Europa Plaza. A obra situa-se na Av. da República nº93, em Lisboa e o Hotel é constituído por 8 pisos elevados e 4 enterrados. Aquando do início do estágio a sua construção encontrava-se na fase final de estrutura, tendo o estagiário acompanhado também parte da fase inicial de acabamentos e instalações. Durante o estágio, o aluno participou nas diversas actividades de fiscalização, tais como, acompanhamento e controlo de execução, aprovação e verificação de materiais, controlo de custos e planeamento, consultas e contactos entre todos os intervenientes da obra, com o objectivo de resolução de incompatibilidades de projecto e alterações. O estágio permitiu a consolidação dos conhecimentos adquiridos ao longo do percurso académico, através do contacto directo com a obra e seus diversos processos construtivos empregues, assim como, a percepção do funcionamento das diversas entidades envolvidas na execução da obra.

Measuring and Controlling the Chaotic Motion of Profits

The study of economic systems has generated deep interest in exploring the complexity of chaotic motions in economy. Due to important developments in nonlinear dynamics, the last two decades have witnessed strong revival of interest in nonlinear endogenous business chaotic models. The inability to predict the behavior of dynamical systems in the presence of chaos suggests the application of chaos control methods, when we are more interested in obtaining regular behavior. In the present article, we study a specific economic model from the literature. More precisely, a system of three ordinary differential equations gather the variables of profits, reinvestments and financial flow of borrowings in the structure of a firm. Firstly, using results of symbolic dynamics, we characterize the topological entropy and the parameter space ordering of kneading sequences, associated with one-dimensional maps that reproduce significant aspects of the model dynamics. The analysis of the variation of this numerical invariant, in some realistic system parameter region, allows us to quantify and to distinguish different chaotic regimes. Finally, we show that complicated behavior arising from the chaotic firm model can be controlled without changing its original properties and the dynamics can be turned into the desired attracting time periodic motion (a stable steady state or into a regular cycle). The orbit stabilization is illustrated by the application of a feedback control technique initially developed by Romeiras et al. [1992]. This work provides another illustration of how our understanding of economic models can be enhanced by the theoretical and numerical investigation of nonlinear dynamical systems modeled by ordinary differential equations.

Optimização de recursos na construção de linhas de caminhos de ferro

Os Caminhos-de-ferro representam um conjunto de abordagens quase ilimitadas, nestes termos, o tema proposto – “A optimização de recursos na construção de linhas de Caminhos de Ferro”, incidirá particularmente sobre a optimização dos recursos: i) materiais; ii) mão-de-obra; iii) equipamentos, afectos a construção da via e da catenária. O presente estudo pretende traçar um encadeamento lógico e intuitivo que permita manter um fio condutor ao longo do todo o seu desenvolvimento, razão pela qual, a sequência dos objectivos apresentados constitui um caminho que permitira abrir sucessivas janelas de conhecimento. O conhecimento da via e da catenária, a compreensão da forma como os trabalhos interagem com os factores externos e a experiência na utilização das ferramentas de planeamento e gestão, são qualidades que conduzem certamente a bons resultados quando nos referimos a necessidade de optimizar os recursos na construção da via e da catenária. A transmissão e reciprocidade da informação, entre as fases de elaboração de propostas e de execução da obra, representam um recurso que pode conduzir a ganhos de produtividade. A coordenação e outro factor determinante na concretização dos objectivos de optimização dos recursos, que se efectua, quer internamente, quer exteriormente. A optimização de recursos na construção da via e da catenária representa o desafio permanente das empresas de construção do sector ferroviário. E neste pressuposto que investem na formação e especialização da sua mão-de-obra e na renovação tecnológica dos seus equipamentos. A optimização dos materiais requer aproximações distintas para o caso da via e para o caso da catenária, assim como, os equipamentos e a mão-de-obra não podem ser desligados, pois não funcionam autonomamente, no entanto a respectiva optimização obedece a pressupostos diferentes.

Evaluation of the respiratory motion effect in small animal PET images with GATE Monte Carlo simulations

The rapid growth in genetics and molecular biology combined with the development of techniques for genetically engineering small animals has led to increased interest in in vivo small animal imaging. Small animal imaging has been applied frequently to the imaging of small animals (mice and rats), which are ubiquitous in modeling human diseases and testing treatments. The use of PET in small animals allows the use of subjects as their own control, reducing the interanimal variability. This allows performing longitudinal studies on the same animal and improves the accuracy of biological models. However, small animal PET still suffers from several limitations. The amounts of radiotracers needed, limited scanner sensitivity, image resolution and image quantification issues, all could clearly benefit from additional research. Because nuclear medicine imaging deals with radioactive decay, the emission of radiation energy through photons and particles alongside with the detection of these quanta and particles in different materials make Monte Carlo method an important simulation tool in both nuclear medicine research and clinical practice. In order to optimize the quantitative use of PET in clinical practice, data- and image-processing methods are also a field of intense interest and development. The evaluation of such methods often relies on the use of simulated data and images since these offer control of the ground truth. Monte Carlo simulations are widely used for PET simulation since they take into account all the random processes involved in PET imaging, from the emission of the positron to the detection of the photons by the detectors. Simulation techniques have become an importance and indispensable complement to a wide range of problems that could not be addressed by experimental or analytical approaches.

Desvio de posicionamento em radioterapia para patologias de cabeça e pescoço e próstata: revisão de literatura

Introdução – Numa era em que os tratamentos de Radioterapia Externa (RTE) exigem cada vez mais precisão, a utilização de imagem médica permitirá medir, quantificar e avaliar o impacto do erro provocado pela execução do tratamento ou pelos movimentos dos órgãos. Objetivo – Analisar os dados existentes na literatura acerca de desvios de posicionamento (DP) em patologias de cabeça e pescoço (CP) e próstata, medidos com Cone Beam Computed Tomography (CBCT) ou Electronic Portal Image Device (EPID). Metodologia – Para esta revisão da literatura foram pesquisados artigos recorrendo às bases de dados MEDLINE/PubMed e b-on. Foram incluídos artigos que reportassem DP em patologias CP e próstata medidos através de CBCT e EPID. Seguidamente foram aplicados critérios de validação, que permitiram a seleção dos estudos. Resultados – Após a análise de 35 artigos foram incluídos 13 estudos e validados 9 estudos. Para tumores CP, a média (μ) dos DP encontra-se entre 0,0 e 1,2mm, com um desvio padrão (σ) máximo de 1,3mm. Para patologias de próstata observa-se μDP compreendido entre 0,0 e 7,1mm, com σ máximo de 7,5mm. Discussão/Conclusão – Os DP em patologias CP são atribuídos, maioritariamente, aos efeitos secundários da RTE, como mucosite e dor, que afetam a deglutição e conduzem ao emagrecimento, contribuindo para a instabilidade da posição do doente durante o tratamento, aumentando as incertezas de posicionamento. Os movimentos da próstata devem-se principalmente às variações de preenchimento vesical, retal e gás intestinal. O desconhecimento dos DP afeta negativamente a precisão da RTE. É importante detetá-los e quantificá-los para calcular margens adequadas e a magnitude dos erros, aumentando a precisão da administração de RTE, incluindo o aumento da segurança do doente. - ABSTRACT - Background and Purpose – In an era where precision is an increasing necessity in external radiotherapy (RT), modern medical imaging techniques provide means for measuring, quantifying and evaluating the impact of treatment execution and movement error. The aim of this paper is to review the current literature on the quantification of setup deviations (SD) in patients with head and neck (H&N) or prostate tumors, using Cone Beam Computed Tomography (CBCT) or Electronic Portal Image Device (EPID). Methods – According to the study protocol, MEDLINE/PubMed and b-on databases were searched for trials, which were analyzed using selection criteria based on the quality of the articles. Results – After assessment of 35 papers, 13 studies were included in this analysis and nine were authenticated (6 for prostate and 3 for H&N tumors). The SD in the treatment of H&N cancer patients is in the interval of 0.1 to 1.2mm, whereas in prostate cancer this interval is 0.0 to 7.1mm. Discussion – The reproducibility of patient positioning is the biggest barrier for higher precision in RT, which is affected by geometrical uncertainty, positioning errors and inter or intra-fraction organ movement. There are random and systematic errors associated to patient positioning, introduced since the treatment planning phase or through physiological organ movement. Conclusion – The H&N SD are mostly assigned to the Radiotherapy adverse effects, like mucositis and pain, which affect swallowing and decrease secretions, contributing for the instability of patient positioning during RT treatment and increasing positioning uncertainties. Prostate motion is mainly related to the variation in bladder and rectal filling. Ignoring SD affects negatively the accuracy of RT. Therefore, detection and quantification of SD is crucial in order to calculate appropriate margins, the magnitude of error and to improve accuracy in RTE and patient safety.

A data-mining-based methodology for transmission expansion planning

In recent decades, all over the world, competition in the electric power sector has deeply changed the way this sector’s agents play their roles. In most countries, electric process deregulation was conducted in stages, beginning with the clients of higher voltage levels and with larger electricity consumption, and later extended to all electrical consumers. The sector liberalization and the operation of competitive electricity markets were expected to lower prices and improve quality of service, leading to greater consumer satisfaction. Transmission and distribution remain noncompetitive business areas, due to the large infrastructure investments required. However, the industry has yet to clearly establish the best business model for transmission in a competitive environment. After generation, the electricity needs to be delivered to the electrical system nodes where demand requires it, taking into consideration transmission constraints and electrical losses. If the amount of power flowing through a certain line is close to or surpasses the safety limits, then cheap but distant generation might have to be replaced by more expensive closer generation to reduce the exceeded power flows. In a congested area, the optimal price of electricity rises to the marginal cost of the local generation or to the level needed to ration demand to the amount of available electricity. Even without congestion, some power will be lost in the transmission system through heat dissipation, so prices reflect that it is more expensive to supply electricity at the far end of a heavily loaded line than close to an electric power generation. Locational marginal pricing (LMP), resulting from bidding competition, represents electrical and economical values at nodes or in areas that may provide economical indicator signals to the market agents. This article proposes a data-mining-based methodology that helps characterize zonal prices in real power transmission networks. To test our methodology, we used an LMP database from the California Independent System Operator for 2009 to identify economical zones. (CAISO is a nonprofit public benefit corporation charged with operating the majority of California’s high-voltage wholesale power grid.) To group the buses into typical classes that represent a set of buses with the approximate LMP value, we used two-step and k-means clustering algorithms. By analyzing the various LMP components, our goal was to extract knowledge to support the ISO in investment and network-expansion planning.

Optimization techniques for power distribution planning with uncertainties: a comparative study

Important research effort has been devoted to the topic of optimal planning of distribution systems. The non linear nature of the system, the need to consider a large number of scenarios and the increasing necessity to deal with uncertainties make optimal planning in distribution systems a difficult task. Heuristic techniques approaches have been proposed to deal with these issues, overcoming some of the inherent difficulties of classic methodologies. This paper considers several methodologies used to address planning problems of electrical power distribution networks, namely mixedinteger linear programming (MILP), ant colony algorithms (AC), genetic algorithms (GA), tabu search (TS), branch exchange (BE), simulated annealing (SA) and the Bender´s decomposition deterministic non-linear optimization technique (BD). Adequacy of theses techniques to deal with uncertainties is discussed. The behaviour of each optimization technique is compared from the point of view of the obtained solution and of the methodology performance. The paper presents results of the application of these optimization techniques to a real case of a 10-kV electrical distribution system with 201 nodes that feeds an urban area.

Cancer incidence projections for Lisbon and Santarém districts: an aid to radiotherapy services planning

Will the existing means in Radiotherapy respond to the needs of the potential user population in 2014 for Lisbon and Santarém districts? Number of treatment units? Number of Radiotherapy Technologists? Temporal variations of the dimension and age structure of the populations: Coastal areas/Interior areas, Urban areas/Rural areas. Temporal variations in the incidence of several types of cancer. Overall objectives: evaluate of the necessities of Radiotherapy for Lisbon and Santarém districts in 2014 and elaboration of proposals that aim the access/use for the potential user population.

Recommendation and planning through mobile devices in tourism context

In this paper we present a mobile recommendation and planning system, named PSiS Mobile. It is designed to provide effective support during a tourist visit through context-aware information and recommendations about points of interest, exploiting tourist preferences and context. Designing a tool like this brings several challenges that must be addressed. We discuss how these challenges have been overcame, present the overall system architecture, since this mobile application extends the PSiS project website, and the mobile application architecture.