Predicting how many animals will be where: how to build, calibrate and evaluate individual-based models

Individual-based models (IBMs) can simulate the actions of individual animals as they interact with one another and the landscape in which they live. When used in spatially-explicit landscapes IBMs can show how populations change over time in response to management actions. For instance, IBMs are being used to design strategies of conservation and of the exploitation of fisheries, and for assessing the effects on populations of major construction projects and of novel agricultural chemicals. In such real world contexts, it becomes especially important to build IBMs in a principled fashion, and to approach calibration and evaluation systematically. We argue that insights from physiological and behavioural ecology offer a recipe for building realistic models, and that Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a promising technique for the calibration and evaluation of IBMs. IBMs are constructed primarily from knowledge about individuals. In ecological applications the relevant knowledge is found in physiological and behavioural ecology, and we approach these from an evolutionary perspective by taking into account how physiological and behavioural processes contribute to life histories, and how those life histories evolve. Evolutionary life history theory shows that, other things being equal, organisms should grow to sexual maturity as fast as possible, and then reproduce as fast as possible, while minimising per capita death rate. Physiological and behavioural ecology are largely built on these principles together with the laws of conservation of matter and energy. To complete construction of an IBM information is also needed on the effects of competitors, conspecifics and food scarcity; the maximum rates of ingestion, growth and reproduction, and life-history parameters. Using this knowledge about physiological and behavioural processes provides a principled way to build IBMs, but model parameters vary between species and are often difficult to measure. A common solution is to manually compare model outputs with observations from real landscapes and so to obtain parameters which produce acceptable fits of model to data. However, this procedure can be convoluted and lead to over-calibrated and thus inflexible models. Many formal statistical techniques are unsuitable for use with IBMs, but we argue that ABC offers a potential way forward. It can be used to calibrate and compare complex stochastic models and to assess the uncertainty in their predictions. We describe methods used to implement ABC in an accessible way and illustrate them with examples and discussion of recent studies. Although much progress has been made, theoretical issues remain, and some of these are outlined and discussed.

Examining Cognitive Models of Obsessive Compulsive Disorder in Adolescents

Abstract. Three influential theoretical models of OCD focus upon the cognitive factors of inflated responsibility (Salkovskis, 1985), thought-action fusion (Rachman, 1993) and meta-cognitive beliefs (Wells and Matthews, 1994). Little is known about the relevance of these models in adolescents or about the nature of any direct or mediating relationships between these variables and OCD symptoms. This was a cross-sectional correlational design with 223 non-clinical adolescents aged 13 to 16 years. All participants completed questionnaires measuring inflated responsibility, thought-action fusion, meta-cognitive beliefs and obsessive-compulsive symptoms. Inflated responsibility, thought-action fusion and metacognitive beliefs were significantly associated with higher levels of obsessive-compulsive symptoms. These variables accounted for 35% of the variance in obsessive-compulsive symptoms, with inflated responsibility and meta-cognitive beliefs both emerging as significant independent predictors. Inflated responsibility completely mediated the effect of thoughtaction fusion and partially mediated the effect of meta-cognitive beliefs. Support for the downward extension of cognitive models to understanding OCD in a younger population was shown. Findings suggest that inflated responsibility and meta-cognitive beliefs may be particularly important cognitive concepts in OCD. Methodological limitations must be borne in mind and future research is needed to replicate and extend findings in clinical samples. Keywords: Obsessive compulsive disorder, adolescents, cognitive models.

CHEMICAL EVOLUTION OF THE GALACTIC BULGE: SINGLE AND DOUBLE INFALL MODELS

Recent work, has produced a wealth of data concerning the chemical evolution of the Galactic bulge, both for stars and nebulae. Present theoretical models generally adopt it limited range of such constraints, frequenfly using it single chemical element (usually iron), which is not enough to describe it unambiguously. In this work, we take into account contraints involving,9 Many chemical elements as possible, basically obtained from bulge nebulae and stars. Our main goal is to show that different scenarios can describe, at least partially the abundance distribution and several dishuice-independent correlations for these objects . Three classes of models were developed. The first is it one-zone, single-infall model, the. Second is it one-zone, double-infall model and the third is a multizone, double-infall model. We show that a one-zone model with it single infall episode is able to reproduce some of the observational data, but the best results tire achieved using it multizone, double-infall model.

Regression Models with Heteroscedasticity using Bayesian Approach

In this paper, we compare the performance of two statistical approaches for the analysis of data obtained from the social research area. In the first approach, we use normal models with joint regression modelling for the mean and for the variance heterogeneity. In the second approach, we use hierarchical models. In the first case, individual and social variables are included in the regression modelling for the mean and for the variance, as explanatory variables, while in the second case, the variance at level 1 of the hierarchical model depends on the individuals (age of the individuals), and in the level 2 of the hierarchical model, the variance is assumed to change according to socioeconomic stratum. Applying these methodologies, we analyze a Colombian tallness data set to find differences that can be explained by socioeconomic conditions. We also present some theoretical and empirical results concerning the two models. From this comparative study, we conclude that it is better to jointly modelling the mean and variance heterogeneity in all cases. We also observe that the convergence of the Gibbs sampling chain used in the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for the jointly modeling the mean and variance heterogeneity is quickly achieved.

Susceptible-infected-recovered and susceptible-exposed-infected models

Two stochastic epidemic lattice models, the susceptible-infected-recovered and the susceptible-exposed-infected models, are studied on a Cayley tree of coordination number k. The spreading of the disease in the former is found to occur when the infection probability b is larger than b(c) = k/2(k - 1). In the latter, which is equivalent to a dynamic site percolation model, the spreading occurs when the infection probability p is greater than p(c) = 1/(k - 1). We set up and solve the time evolution equations for both models and determine the final and time-dependent properties, including the epidemic curve. We show that the two models are closely related by revealing that their relevant properties are exactly mapped into each other when p = b/[k - (k - 1) b]. These include the cluster size distribution and the density of individuals of each type, quantities that have been determined in closed forms.

Soluble one-dimensional particle conservation models with infinitely many absorbing states

Particle conservation lattice-gas models with infinitely many absorbing states are studied on a one-dimensional lattice. As one increases the particle density, they exhibit a phase transition from an absorbing to an active phase. The models are solved exactly by the use of the transfer matrix technique from which the critical behavior was obtained. We have found that the exponent related to the order parameter, the density of active sites, is 1 for all studied models except one of them with exponent 2.

The role of carbon impurities on the Si(001)-c(4 x 4) surface reconstruction: Theoretical calculations

In this work we employ the state-of-the-art pseudopotential method, within a generalized gradient approximation to the density functional theory, combined with a recently developed method for the calculation of HREELS spectra to study a series of different proposed models for carbon incorporation on the silicon (001) surface. A fully discussion on the geometry, energetics and specially the comparison between experimental and theoretical STM images and electron energy loss spectra indicate that the Si(100)-c(4 x 4) is probably induced by Si-C surface dinners, in agreement with recent experimental findings. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Package models and the information crisis of prebiotic evolution

The coexistence between different types of templates has been the choice solution to the information crisis of prebiotic evolution, triggered by the finding that a single RNA-like template cannot carry enough information to code for any useful replicase. In principle, confining d distinct templates of length L in a package or protocell, whose Survival depends on the coexistence of the templates it holds in, could resolve this crisis provided that d is made sufficiently large. Here we review the prototypical package model of Niesert et al. [1981. Origin of life between Scylla and Charybdis. J. Mol. Evol. 17, 348-353] which guarantees the greatest possible region of viability of the protocell population, and show that this model, and hence the entire package approach, does not resolve the information crisis. In particular, we show that the total information stored in a viable protocell (Ld) tends to a constant value that depends only on the spontaneous error rate per nucleotide of the template replication mechanism. As a result, an increase of d must be followed by a decrease of L, so that the net information gain is null. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cyclocreatine, an anticancer and neuroprotective agent. Spectroscopic, structural and theoretical study

The structural, spectroscopic and theoretical study of cyclocreatine (1-carboxymethyl-2-iminoimidazolidine, CyCre) has been performed prompted by the biological relevance of the molecule and its potential role as a ligand in biometalic compounds. The crystal structure of CyCre has been determined by X-ray diffraction methods. The compound crystallizes as a zwitterion in the monoclinic system, space group P2(1)/c. The crystal is further stabilized by a network of N-H center dot center dot center dot O bonds. Infrared and Raman spectra of the solid, electronic spectra of aqueous solutions at different pH values and (1)H and (13)C NMR spectra have been recorded and analyzed. Band assignments were accomplished with the help of theoretical calculations. Optimized molecular geometries, harmonic vibrational frequencies and molecular electrostatic potentials were calculated using methods based on the density functional theory. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

SPECIAL CHARACTERIZATIONS OF STANDARD DISCRETE MODELS

This article presents important properties of standard discrete distributions and its conjugate densities. The Bernoulli and Poisson processes are described as generators of such discrete models. A characterization of distributions by mixtures is also introduced. This article adopts a novel singular notation and representation. Singular representations are unusual in statistical texts. Nevertheless, the singular notation makes it simpler to extend and generalize theoretical results and greatly facilitates numerical and computational implementation.

Solvatochromic and lonochromic Effects of Iron(II)bis-(1,10-phenanthroline)dicyano: a Theoretical Study

Solvatochromic and ionochromic effects of the iron(II)bis(1,10-phenanthroline)dicyano (Fe(phen)(2)(CN)(2)) complex were investigated by means of combined DFT/TDDFT calculations using the PBE and B3LYP functionals. Extended solvation models of Fe(phen)(2)(CN)(2) in acetonitrile and aqueous solution, as well as including interaction with Mg(2+), were constructed. The calculated vertical excitation energies reproduce well the observed solvatochromism in acetonitrile and aqueous solutions, the ionochromism in acetonitrile in the presence of Mg(2+), and the absence of ionochromic effect in aqueous solution. The vertical excitation energies and the nature of the transitions were reliably predicted after inclusion of geometry relaxation upon aqueous micro- and global solvation and solvent polarization effect in the TDDFT calculations. The two intense UV-vis absorption bands occurring for all systems studied are interpreted as transitions from a hybrid Fe(II)(d)/cyano N(p) orbital to a phenanthroline pi* orbital rather than a pure metal-to-ligand-charge transfer (MLCT). The solvatochromic and ionochromic blue band shifts of Fe(phen)(2)(CN)(2) were explained with preferential stabilization of the highest occupied Fe(II)(d)/cyano N(p) orbitals as a result of specific interactions with water solvent molecules or Mg(2+) ions in solution. Such interactions occur through the CN(-) groups in the complex, and they have a decisive role for the observed blue shifts of UV-vis absorption bands.

Design of novel antituberculosis compounds using graph-theoretical and substructural approaches

The increasing resistance of Mycobacterium tuberculosis to the existing drugs has alarmed the worldwide scientific community. In an attempt to overcome this problem, two models for the design and prediction of new antituberculosis agents were obtained. The first used a mixed approach, containing descriptors based on fragments and the topological substructural molecular design approach (TOPS-MODE) descriptors. The other model used a combination of two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) descriptors. A data set of 167 compounds with great structural variability, 72 of them antituberculosis agents and 95 compounds belonging to other pharmaceutical categories, was analyzed. The first model showed sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy values above 80% and the second one showed values higher than 75% for these statistical indices. Subsequently, 12 structures of imidazoles not included in this study were designed, taking into account the two models. In both cases accuracy was 100%, showing that the methodology in silico developed by us is promising for the rational design of antituberculosis drugs.

Photocatalytic decomposition of methylene blue via Fenton mechanisms by silicon wafer doped with Au and Cu: a theoretical and experimental study

In this work, we studied the photocatalytic and the structural aspects of silicon wafers doped with Au and Cu submitted to thermal treatment. The materials were obtained by deposition of metals on Si using the sputtering method followed by fast heating method. The photocatalyst materials were characterized by synchrotron-grazing incidence X-ray fluorescence, ultraviolet-visible spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, and assays of H(2)O(2) degradation. The doping process decreases the optical band gap of materials and the doping with Au causes structural changes. The best photocatalytic activity was found for thermally treated material doped with Au. Theoretical calculations at density functional theory level are in agreement with the experimental data.

A theoretical study on the XeF(2) molecule

A relativistic four-component study was performed for the XeF(2) molecule by using the Dirac-Coulomb (DC) Hamiltonian and the relativistic adapted Gaussian basis sets (RAGBSs). The comparison of bond lengths obtained showed that relativistic effects on this property are small (increase of only 0.01 angstrom) while the contribution of electron correlation, obtained at CCSD(T) or CCSD-T levels, is more important (increase of 0.05 angstrom). Electron correlation is also dominant over relativistic effects for dissociation energies. Moreover, the correlation-relativity interaction is shown to be negligible for these properties. The electron affinity, the first ionization potential and the double ionization potential are obtained by means of the Fock-space coupled cluster (FSCC) method, resulting in DC-CCSD-T values of 0.3 eV, 12.5 eV and 32.3 eV, respectively. Vibrational frequencies and some anharmonicity constants were also calculated under the four-component formalism by means of standard perturbation equations. All these molecular properties are, in general, ill satisfactory agreement with available experimental results. Finally, a partition in terms of charge-charge flux-dipole flux (CCFDF) contributions derived by means of the quantum theory of atoms in molecules (QTAIM) in non-relativistic QCISD(FC)/3-21G* calculations was carried out for XeF(2) and KrF(2). This analysis showed that the most remarkable difference between both molecules lies on the charge flux contribution to the asymmetric stretching mode, which is negligible in KrF(2) but important in XeF(2). (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Do Different Models of Integration Affect Actual Integration? The Cases of France and Great Britain Revisited

Britain and France adapted two different integration models, namely assimilationist and multiculturalism to integrate their immigrants. These two big models of integration have distinctive characteristics to integrate immigrants. There is a general claim that multiculturalism model is the best for integrating immigrants in terms of actual integration, however, some argue the opposite, that French assimilationist model is ‘better off.’ This study examines these controversial claims by looking at the level to which immigrants are integrated in economic, social, political, cultural dimensions of integration and attitudes towards immigrants in Britain and France. Within a given theoretical framework, this study compares the overall competency level of immigrants’ integration in terms of actual integration between British multiculturalism model and French assimilationist model and validate that both these two big models of integration have reached a comparable level of integration and they do not have any decisive impact on actual integration.