Production under uncertainty and choice under uncertainty in the emergence of generalized expected utility theory

This paper presents a personal view of the interaction between the analysis of choice under uncertainty and the analysis of production under uncertainty. Interest in the foundations of the theory of choice under uncertainty was stimulated by applications of expected utility theory such as the Sandmo model of production under uncertainty. This interest led to the development of generalized models including rank-dependent expected utility theory. In turn, the development of generalized expected utility models raised the question of whether such models could be used in the analysis of applied problems such as those involving production under uncertainty. Finally, the revival of the state-contingent approach led to the recognition of a fundamental duality between choice problems and production problems.

An agent-based approach to modelling driver route choice behaviour under the influence of real-time information

This paper presents an agent-based approach to modelling individual driver behaviour under the influence of real-time traffic information. The driver behaviour models developed in this study are based on a behavioural survey of drivers which was conducted on a congested commuting corridor in Brisbane, Australia. Commuters' responses to travel information were analysed and a number of discrete choice models were developed to determine the factors influencing drivers' behaviour and their propensity to change route and adjust travel patterns. Based on the results obtained from the behavioural survey, the agent behaviour parameters which define driver characteristics, knowledge and preferences were identified and their values determined. A case study implementing a simple agent-based route choice decision model within a microscopic traffic simulation tool is also presented. Driver-vehicle units (DVUs) were modelled as autonomous software components that can each be assigned a set of goals to achieve and a database of knowledge comprising certain beliefs, intentions and preferences concerning the driving task. Each DVU provided route choice decision-making capabilities, based on perception of its environment, that were similar to the described intentions of the driver it represented. The case study clearly demonstrated the feasibility of the approach and the potential to develop more complex driver behavioural dynamics based on the belief-desire-intention agent architecture. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Country risk, national cultural differences between partners and survival of international joint ventures in Brazil

This article aims to identify the main and interaction effects of two country-level variables, namely national distance and country risk, on the survival of international joint ventures in emerging markets. Research hypotheses predicting the negative impact of national distance and country risk on survival of international joint ventures are formulated in this article. These research hypotheses are examined in a sample of 234 international joint ventures formed in Brazil between 1973 and 2004. These international joint ventures were subjected to an event history analysis over a period of time ranging from 1973 to 2006. The empirical results show that large national cultural differences between local and foreign partners increase the instability of international joint ventures, whereas the survival of these alliances does not seem to be affected either by the economic and political uncertainty of Brazil. Furthermore, the national distance between local and foreign partners has effects on survival that are variable according to the life cycle of international joint ventures. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Financial leverage and tangibility of assets of Brazilian companies of agribusiness in the post-real plan period

This paper aims to study the relationship between the debt level and the asset structure of Brazilian companies of the agribusiness sector, since it is considered a current and relevant discussion: to evaluate the mechanisms for fund-raising and guarantees. The methodology of Granger`s Causality test and Autoregressive Vectors was used to conduct a comparative analysis, applied to a financial database of companies with open capital of Brazilian agribusiness, in particular the agricultural sector and Fisheries and Food and Beverages in a period of 10 years (1997-2007) from quarterly series available in the database of Economatica(R). The results demonstrated that changes in leverage generate variations in the tangibility of the companies, a fact that can be explained by the large search of funding secured by fiduciary transfer of fixed assets, which facilitates access to credit by business of the Agribusiness sector, increasing the payment time and lowering interest rates.

Choice of macroinvertebrate metrics to evaluate stream conditions in Atlantic Forest, Brazil

The development of biomonitoring programs based on the macroinvertebrate community requires the understanding of species distribution patterns, as well as of the responses of the community to anthropogenic stressors. In this study, 49 metrics were tested as potential means of assessing the condition of 29 first- and second-order streams located in areas of differing types of land use in So Paulo State, Brazil. Of the sampled streams, 15 were in well-preserved regions in the Atlantic Forest, 5 were among sugarcane cultivations, 5 were in areas of pasture, and 4 were among eucalyptus plantations. The metrics were assessed against the following criteria: (1) predictable response to the impact of human activity; (2) highest taxonomic resolution, and (3) operational and theoretical simplicity. We found that 18 metrics were correlated with the environmental and spatial predictors used, and seven of these satisfied the selection criteria and are thus candidates for inclusion in a multimetric system to assess low-order streams in So Paulo State. These metrics are family richness; Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera (EPT) richness; proportion of Megaloptera and Hirudinea; proportion of EPT; Shannon diversity index for genus; and adapted Biological Monitoring Work Party biotic index.

Book review of: Choice, Behavioural Economics and Addiction Ruby Vuchinich & Nick Heather, eds

The body of work contained in Choice, Behavioural Economics and Addiction is the result of a conference held at the University of Alabama in Birmingham, 2002. The purpose of the conference was to bring together highly accredited international authors in the field of addiction research pertaining to behavioural choice theories. The conference provided a forum where these theories and their empirical implications could be discussed and debated. This book represents the conference proceedings and as such is a combination of journal articles that each relevant author has published plus additional comments from allocated reviewers.

Assessment of vocational guidance: The Berufsbilder test

The object of this study is to assess informative possibilities of some technical indicators of the Test of Photos of Professions (BBT - Berufsbilder test), a projective method to clarify professional inclination, proposed by Martin Achtnich. This psychological evaluation technique is composed of 96 photos of professionals, performing various types of activities. The test subject classifies the photos into three groups: positive (agreeable), negative (disagreeable) and indifferent (neutral). Among those chosen positively, five preferences are chosen and a story is developed that includes them, an activity that is requested two times during the Vocational Guidance process: in the beginning (or middle) and at the end of the intervention. In this study, 160 stories were created by 80 youths, between 15 and 20 years of age, in public and private schools in a mid-sized Brazilian city. The stories were compared in three analytical categories: protagonist, professional conflict and resolution. The results were submitted to Wilcoxon nonparametric statistical analysis (p < .05), significant and relevant indicators of resolution being found in the process of occupational choice. This technical resource was shown, from this empirical evidence, to be promising for use in evaluation of intervention processes of Vocational Guidance.

Mode of action of back-line application of spinosad, a non-systemic parasiticide, on sheep

Spinosad, applied as a jetting solution or dip is an efficacious, non-systemic treatment for the control of Bovicola ovis in sheep. This paper describes the effect of back-line treatment width and group housing of animals on the efficacy of spinosad for the control of lice. A 0.4 mg/kg liveweight dose was found to be the suboptimal dose of spinosad for the control of body lice in a dose titration study and was used to investigate application and housing effects in a second study. Lousy Merino sheep were treated with either a narrow 3-cm application of spinosad or with a wider 25-cm swathe. After treatment they were either kept alone or in groups of 6 sheep per pen. Lice were counted at day 0 and every 14 days to 70 days after treatment before estimation of the percentage of lice control and analysis of treatment effects. A much higher percentage of lice control was achieved with 0.4 mg/kg in the second study than in the first, possibly because of differences in formulation used. The wider application width gave significantly higher (P < 0.05) control of lice than the narrow application when sheep were either housed alone or in groups up to day 42 post-treatment. Greater control of lice was seen in group-housed sheep compared with sheep housed individually (P < 0.05) up to day 70. Using broader application widths combined with holding the animals together after treatment with pour-on formulations may optimise the delivery and efficacy of ectoparasiticides for livestock.

Extrahepatic portal vein thrombosis after umbilical catheterization: is it a good choice for Rex shunt?

Background: Extrahepatic portal vein thrombosis (EHPVT) is an important cause of portal hypertension in children. Rex shunt has been used successfully to treat these patients. Methods: We report our experience in 19 infants and children (5 months to 14 years) with HPVT eligible for a mesenteric-portal surgical shunt with left internal jugular vein autograft. Eight children had idiopathic EHPVT, nine had post-umbilical catheterization EHPVT, one had portal vein agenesis, and one had posttransplant EHPVT. Results: It was possible to perform the Rex shunt in all patients except for 8 of 9 cases in the post-umbilical catheterization EHPVT group. A Warren procedure was performed in 4 of those patients and a proximal splenorenal shunt in 1. Current follow-up ranges from 3 to 26 months. Shunt thrombosis occurred in one patient with portal vein agenesis and associated cardiac anomaly. Portal hypertension has significantly improved after surgery. None of our patients have experienced new bleeding episodes until now. Conclusions: The Rex shunt should be considered in the treatment of children with idiopathic EHPVT experiencing repeated gastrointestinal bleeding episodes refractory to endoscopic treatment. Nevertheless, the role of this operation for children with post-umbilical catheterization EHPVT is yet to be clearly evaluated. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Phase waves in mode-locked superfluorescent lasers

We present results from both theoretical and experimental studies of the noise characteristics of mode-locked superfluorescent lasers. The results show that observed macroscopic broadband amplitude noise on the laser pulse train has its origin in quantum noise-initiated ''phase-wave'' fluctuations, and we find an associated phase transition in the noise characteristics as a function of laser cavity detuning.

Effects of dobutamine on gut mucosal nitric oxide production during endotoxic shock in rabbits

Background: Dobutamine is the agent of choice for increasing cardiac output during myocardial depression in humans with septic shock. Studies have shown that beta-adrenoceptor agonists influence nitric oxide generation, probably by modulating cyclic adenosine monophosphate. We investigated the effects of dobutamine on the systemic and luminal gut release of nitric oxide during endotoxic shock in rabbits. Materials/Methods: Twenty anesthetized and ventilated New Zealand rabbits received placebo or intravenous lipopolysaccharide with or without dobutamine (5 mu g/kg/min). Ultrasonic flow probes placed around the superior mesenteric artery and the abdominal aorta continously estimated the flow. A segment from the ileum was isolated and perfused, and scrum nitrate/nitrite levels were measured in the perfusate solution and the serum every hour. Results: The mean arterial pressure decreased with statistical significance in the lipopolysaccharide group but not in the lipopolysaccharide/dobutamine group. The abdominal aortic flow decreased statistically significantly after lipopolysaccharide administration in both groups but recovered to base-line in the lipopolysaccharide/dobutamine group. The flow in the superior mesenteric artery was statistically significantly higher in the lipopolysaccharide/dobutamine group than in the lipopolysaccharide group at 2 hours. The serum nitrate/nitrite levels were higher in the lipopolysaccharide group and lower in the lipopolysaccharide/dobutamine group than those in the control group. The gut luminal perfusate serum nitrate/nitric level was higher in the lipopolysaccharide group than in the lipopolysaccharide/dobutamine group. Conclusions: Dobutamine can decrease total and intestinal nitric oxide production in vivo. Those effects seem to be inversely proportional to the changes in blood flow.

Streptokinase and Enoxaparin as an Alternative to Fibrin-Specific Lytic-Based Regimens An ExTRACT-TIMI 25 Analysis

Background: Enoxaparin was superior to unfractionated heparin (UFH), regardless of fibrinolytic agent in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients receiving fibrinolytic therapy in ExTRACT-TIMI 25 (Enoxaparin and Thrombolysis Reperfusion for Acute Myocardial Infarction Treatment Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 25) trial. Objective: This post hoc analysis compared outcomes with streptokinase plus enoxaparin to the standard regimen of fibrin-specific lytic (FSL) plus UFH and to the newer combination of FSL plus enoxaparin. Methods: In ExTRACT-TIMI 25, STEMI patients received either streptokinase or a FSL (alteplase, reteplase or tenecteplase) at the physician`s discretion and were randomized to enoxaparin or UFH, stratified by fibrinolytic type. Thirty-day outcomes were adjusted for baseline characteristics, region, in-hospital percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and a propensity score for the choice of lytic. Results: The primary trial endpoint of 30-day death/myocardial infarction (MI) occurred in fewer patients in the streptokinase-enoxaparin cohort (n = 2083) compared with FSL-UFH (n = 8141) [10.2% vs 12.0%, adjusted odds ratio [OR(adj)] 0.76; 95% CI 0.62, 0.93; p = 0.008]. Major bleeding was significantly increased with streptokinase-enoxaparin compared with FSL-UFH (ORadj 2.74; 95% CI 1.81; 4.14; p < 0.001) but intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) was similar (OR(adj) 0.90; 95% CI 0.40, 2.01; p = 0.79). Net clinical outcomes, defined as either death/MI/major bleeding or as death/MI/ICH tended to favour streptokinase-enoxaparin compared with FSL-UFH (OR(adj) 0.88; 95% CI 0.73, 1.06; p = 0.17; and OR(adj) 0.77; 95% CI 0.63, 0.93; p = 0.008, respectively). Patients receiving FSL-enoxaparin (n = 8142) and streptokinase-enoxaparin therapies experienced similar adjusted rates of the primary endpoint (OR(adj) 1.08; 95% CI 0.87, 1.32; p = 0.49) and net clinical outcomes. Conclusions: Our results suggest that fibrinolytic therapy with the combination of streptokinase and the potent anticoagulant agent enoxaparin resulted in similar adjusted outcomes compared with more costly regimens utilizing a FSL.