Statistical modelling of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island

Extreme rainfall events have triggered a significant number of flash floods in Madeira Island along its past and recent history. Madeira is a volcanic island where the spatial rainfall distribution is strongly affected by its rugged topography. In this thesis, annual maximum of daily rainfall data from 25 rain gauge stations located in Madeira Island were modelled by the generalised extreme value distribution. Also, the hypothesis of a Gumbel distribution was tested by two methods and the existence of a linear trend in both distributions parameters was analysed. Estimates for the 50– and 100–year return levels were also obtained. Still in an univariate context, the assumption that a distribution function belongs to the domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution for monthly maximum rainfall data was tested for the rainy season. The available data was then analysed in order to find the most suitable domain of attraction for the sampled distribution. In a different approach, a search for thresholds was also performed for daily rainfall values through a graphical analysis. In a multivariate context, a study was made on the dependence between extreme rainfall values from the considered stations based on Kendall’s τ measure. This study suggests the influence of factors such as altitude, slope orientation, distance between stations and their proximity of the sea on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall. Groups of three pairwise associated stations were also obtained and an adjustment was made to a family of extreme value copulas involving the Marshall–Olkin family, whose parameters can be written as a function of Kendall’s τ association measures of the obtained pairs.

Bone healing in critical-size defects treated with platelet-rich plasma activated by two different methods. A histologic and histometric study in rat calvaria

The purpose of this study was to analyze histologically the influence of platelet-rich plasma (PRP) coagulated with two different activators on bone healing in surgically created critical-size defects (CSD) in rat calvaria.Forty-eight rats were divided into three groups: C, PRP-C and PRP-T. An 8 mm diameter CSD was created in the calvarium of each animal. In group C, the defect was filled by a blood clot only. In groups PRP-C and PRP-T, the defect was filled with PRP activated with either calcium chloride or thromboplastin solution, respectively. Each group was divided into two subgroups (n = 8 per subgroup) and killed at either 4 or 12 weeks postoperatively. Histologic and histometric analyses were performed. The amount of new bone formed was calculated as a percentage of the total area of the original defect. Percentage data were transformed into arccosine for statistical analysis (analysis of variance, Tukey's post hoc test, p < 0.05).No defect completely regenerated with bone. Group PRP-C had a statistically greater amount of bone formation than groups C and PRP-T at both time points of analysis. No statistically significant differences were observed between groups C and PRP-T.It can be concluded that the type of activator used to initiate PRP clot formation influences its biological effect on bone healing in CSD in rat calvaria.

The use of artificial neural networks in analysing the nutritional ecology of Chrysomya megacephala (F.) (Diptera: Calliphoridae), compared with a statistical model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Searching for molecular markers in head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC) by statistical and bioinformatic analysis of larynx-derived SAGE libraries

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Influence of Methods of Application of Self-etching Adhesive Systems on Adhesive Bond Strength to Enamel

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The STATFLUX code: a statistical method for calculation of flow and set of parameters, based on the Multiple-Compartment Biokinetical Model

The code STATFLUX, implementing a new and simple statistical procedure for the calculation of transfer coefficients in radionuclide transport to animals and plants, is proposed. The method is based on the general multiple-compartment model, which uses a system of linear equations involving geometrical volume considerations. Flow parameters were estimated by employing two different least-squares procedures: Derivative and Gauss-Marquardt methods, with the available experimental data of radionuclide concentrations as the input functions of time. The solution of the inverse problem, which relates a given set of flow parameter with the time evolution of concentration functions, is achieved via a Monte Carlo Simulation procedure.Program summaryTitle of program: STATFLUXCatalogue identifier: ADYS_v1_0Program summary URL: http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/ADYS_v1_0Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University of Belfast, N. IrelandLicensing provisions: noneComputer for which the program is designed and others on which it has been tested: Micro-computer with Intel Pentium III, 3.0 GHzInstallation: Laboratory of Linear Accelerator, Department of Experimental Physics, University of São Paulo, BrazilOperating system: Windows 2000 and Windows XPProgramming language used: Fortran-77 as implemented in Microsoft Fortran 4.0. NOTE: Microsoft Fortran includes non-standard features which are used in this program. Standard Fortran compilers such as, g77, f77, ifort and NAG95, are not able to compile the code and therefore it has not been possible for the CPC Program Library to test the program.Memory, required to execute with typical data: 8 Mbytes of RAM memory and 100 MB of Hard disk memoryNo. of bits in a word: 16No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 6912No. of bytes in distributed Program, including test data, etc.: 229 541Distribution format: tar.gzNature of the physical problem: the investigation of transport mechanisms for radioactive substances, through environmental pathways, is very important for radiological protection of populations. One such pathway, associated with the food chain, is the grass-animal-man sequence. The distribution of trace elements in humans and laboratory animals has been intensively studied over the past 60 years [R.C. Pendlenton, C.W. Mays, R.D. Lloyd, A.L. Brooks, Differential accumulation of iodine-131 from local fallout in people and milk, Health Phys. 9 (1963) 1253-1262]. In addition, investigations on the incidence of cancer in humans, and a possible causal relationship to radioactive fallout, have been undertaken [E.S. Weiss, M.L. Rallison, W.T. London, W.T. Carlyle Thompson, Thyroid nodularity in southwestern Utah school children exposed to fallout radiation, Amer. J. Public Health 61 (1971) 241-249; M.L. Rallison, B.M. Dobyns, F.R. Keating, J.E. Rall, F.H. Tyler, Thyroid diseases in children, Amer. J. Med. 56 (1974) 457-463; J.L. Lyon, M.R. Klauber, J.W. Gardner, K.S. Udall, Childhood leukemia associated with fallout from nuclear testing, N. Engl. J. Med. 300 (1979) 397-402]. From the pathways of entry of radionuclides in the human (or animal) body, ingestion is the most important because it is closely related to life-long alimentary (or dietary) habits. Those radionuclides which are able to enter the living cells by either metabolic or other processes give rise to localized doses which can be very high. The evaluation of these internally localized doses is of paramount importance for the assessment of radiobiological risks and radiological protection. The time behavior of trace concentration in organs is the principal input for prediction of internal doses after acute or chronic exposure. The General Multiple-Compartment Model (GMCM) is the powerful and more accepted method for biokinetical studies, which allows the calculation of concentration of trace elements in organs as a function of time, when the flow parameters of the model are known. However, few biokinetics data exist in the literature, and the determination of flow and transfer parameters by statistical fitting for each system is an open problem.Restriction on the complexity of the problem: This version of the code works with the constant volume approximation, which is valid for many situations where the biological half-live of a trace is lower than the volume rise time. Another restriction is related to the central flux model. The model considered in the code assumes that exist one central compartment (e.g., blood), that connect the flow with all compartments, and the flow between other compartments is not included.Typical running time: Depends on the choice for calculations. Using the Derivative Method the time is very short (a few minutes) for any number of compartments considered. When the Gauss-Marquardt iterative method is used the calculation time can be approximately 5-6 hours when similar to 15 compartments are considered. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DIAGNOSIS of REGIONAL CEREBRAL BLOOD FLOW ABNORMALITIES USING SPECT: AGREEMENT BETWEEN INDIVIDUALIZED STATISTICAL PARAMETRIC MAPS and VISUAL INSPECTION BY NUCLEAR MEDICINE PHYSICIANS WITH DIFFERENT LEVELS of EXPERTISE IN NUCLEAR NEUROLOGY

INTRODUCTION: Visual analysis is widely used to interpret regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) SPECT images in clinical practice despite its limitations. Automated methods are employed to investigate between-group rCBF differences in research Studies but have rarely been explored in individual analyses.OBJECTIVES: To compare visual inspection by nuclear physicians with the automated statistical parametric mapping program using a SPECT dataset of patients with neurological disorders and normal control images.METHODS: Using statistical parametric mapping, 14 SPECT images from patients with various neurological disorders were compared individually with a databank of 32 normal images using a statistical threshold of p<0.05 (corrected for multiple comparisons at the level of individual voxels or clusters). Statistical parametric mapping results were compared with Visual analyses by a nuclear physician highly experienced in neurology (A) as well as a nuclear physician with a general background of experience (B) who independently classified images as normal or altered, and determined the location of changes and the severity.RESULTS: of the 32 images of the normal databank, 4 generated maps showing rCBF abnormalities (p<0.05, corrected). Among the 14 images from patients with neurological disorders, 13 showed rCBF alterations. Statistical parametric mapping and physician A completely agreed on 84.37% and 64.28% of cases from the normal databank and neurological disorders, respectively. The agreement between statistical parametric mapping and ratings of physician B were lower (71.18% and 35.71%, respectively).CONCLUSION: Statistical parametric mapping replicated the findings described by the more experienced nuclear physician. This finding suggests that automated methods for individually analyzing rCBF SPECT images may be a valuable resource to complement visual inspection in clinical practice.

Composite Resin to Yttria Stabilized Tetragonal Zirconia Polycrystal Bonding: Comparison of Repair Methods

Purpose: The purpose of the current study was to evaluate different approaches for bonding composite to the surface of yttria stabilized tetragonal zirconia polycrystal (Y-TZP) ceramics.Methods: One hundred Y-TZP blocks were embedded in acrylic resin, had the free surface polished, and were randomly divided into 10 groups (n=10). The tested repair approaches included four surface treatments: tribochemical silica coating (TBS), methacryloxydecyldihidrogenphosphate (MDP)-containing primer/silane, sandblasting, and metal/zirconia primer. Alcohol cleaning was used as a "no treatment" control. Surface treatment was followed by the application (or lack thereof) of an MDP-containing resin cement liner. Subsequently, a composite resin was applied to the ceramic surface using a cylindrical mold (4-mm diameter). After aging for 60 days in water storage, including 6000 thermal cycles, the specimens were submitted to a shear test. Analysis of variance and the Tukey test were used for statistical analyses (alpha=0.05).Results: Surface treatment was a statistically significant factor (F=85.42; p<0.0001). The application of the MDP-containing liner had no effect on bond strength (p=0.1017). TBS was the only treatment that had a significantly positive effect on bond strength after aging.Conclusion: Considering the evaluated approaches, TBS seems to be the best surface treatment for Y-TZP composite repairs. The use of an MDP-containing liner between the composite and Y-TZP surfaces is not effective.

Determination and statistical treatment of short-circuit currents for faults on the lines of networks of 440 kV CESP system

The distribution of short-circuit current is investigated by means of two methods, one direct and the other analytic; both methods consider uniform probability distribution of line faults. In the direct method, the procedure consists of calculating fault currents at equidistant points along the line, starting from one of the end points and considering the other end open. The magnitude of the current is classified according to Brazilian standards (regulation NBR-7118). The analytic method assumes that the distribution of short-circuit currents through the busbar and the distribution of the line length connected to it are known, as well as the independence of values. The method is designed to determine the probability that fault currents through a line will surpass the pre-established magnitude, thus generating frequency distribution curves of short-circuit currents along the lines.

Bayesian and multivariate methods applied to favorability quantification in recôncavo Basin and Ribeira Belt, Brazil

A methodology to define favorable areas in petroleum and mineral exploration is applied, which consists in weighting the exploratory variables, in order to characterize their importance as exploration guides. The exploration data are spatially integrated in the selected area to establish the association between variables and deposits, and the relationships among distribution, topology, and indicator pattern of all variables. Two methods of statistical analysis were compared. The first one is the Weights of Evidence Modeling, a conditional probability approach (Agterberg, 1989a), and the second one is the Principal Components Analysis (Pan, 1993). In the conditional method, the favorability estimation is based on the probability of deposit and variable joint occurrence, with the weights being defined as natural logarithms of likelihood ratios. In the multivariate analysis, the cells which contain deposits are selected as control cells and the weights are determined by eigendecomposition, being represented by the coefficients of the eigenvector related to the system's largest eigenvalue. The two techniques of weighting and complementary procedures were tested on two case studies: 1. Recôncavo Basin, Northeast Brazil (for Petroleum) and 2. Itaiacoca Formation of Ribeira Belt, Southeast Brazil (for Pb-Zn Mississippi Valley Type deposits). The applied methodology proved to be easy to use and of great assistance to predict the favorability in large areas, particularly in the initial phase of exploration programs. © 1998 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Methods of experimental induction of periapical inflammation. Microbiological and radiographic evaluation

Aim: To evaluate the influence of coronal filling and apical perforation on the induction of periapical inflammation. Methodology: Fifty-eight root canals in the teeth of dogs were divided into four groups. Groups I and II: root canals were exposed for 180 days; groups III and IV: root canals were exposed for 7 days and then the access cavity filled for 53 days. The root apices of groups I and III were perforated after the coronal opening, whilst those of groups II and IV remained intact. Standard radiographs were taken before and after the experimental periods. Digital images of the radiographs were created and then analysed by three examiners. After induction of periapical inflammation, the root canal contents were collected using paper points. Microbiologic evaluation of the type of microorganism was carried out by culture in different growth media. The radiographic and microbiologic data were statistically analysed using ANOVA at a 5% significance level. Results: There were a greater total number of microorganisms in groups I and II (P < 0.05). The number of anaerobes was greater than the number of aerobes (P < 0.05). The size of the periapical radiolucencies were not significantly different between the experimental groups. Conclusions: The different methods analysed induced similar areas of periapical radiolucency in dogs with predominantly anaerobic bacteria. However, the time required for induction was less when the method with coronal filling was used. © 2005 International Endodontic Journal.

Exfoliative cytology of the oral mucosa: Comparison of two collection methods

This study compared the sampling efficacy cia cytobrush and metal spatula for exfoliative cytology of the oral mucosa. Thirty students with no detectable oral alterations upon clinical examination were submitted to exfoliative cytology of the lateral border of the tongue, using a metal spatula on the left side and a cytobrush on the right side. The smears were stained using the Papanicoiaou technique and evaluated for cellularity, cell type, cell distribution, homogeneity, and cellular distortion, as well as the presence ol mucus, inflammatory infiltrate, and hemorrhage. A statistical test (Z-test) with a 95% confdence interval (Cl) showed a significant difference between the metal spatula and cytobrush in terms of cellularity (p = 0.02) and homogeneity (p = 0.01). No difference between the two methods was observed regarding cell type (p = 0.4, Z-test) or cell distribution for the 95% confidence interval (p = 0.2, Fisher's test). Cell distortion and the presence of mucus were observed in five cases that used the metal spatula and in two cases that used the cytobrush. No hemorrhage or inflammatory infItrate was detected in any of the slides. Based on the results of this study, the cytobrush produced qualitatively better smears in terms of cellularity and homogeneity compared to the metal spatula.

ANN statistical image recognition method for computer vision in agricultural mobile robot navigation

The main application area in this project, is to deploy image processing and segmentation techniques in computer vision through an omnidirectional vision system to agricultural mobile robots (AMR) used for trajectory navigation problems, as well as localization matters. Thereby, computational methods based on the JSEG algorithm were used to provide the classification and the characterization of such problems, together with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) for image recognition. Hence, it was possible to run simulations and carry out analyses of the performance of JSEG image segmentation technique through Matlab/Octave computational platforms, along with the application of customized Back-propagation Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) algorithm and statistical methods as structured heuristics methods in a Simulink environment. Having the aforementioned procedures been done, it was practicable to classify and also characterize the HSV space color segments, not to mention allow the recognition of segmented images in which reasonably accurate results were obtained. © 2010 IEEE.

Pattern recognition structured heuristics methods for image processing in mobile robot navigation

In this project, the main focus is to apply image processing techniques in computer vision through an omnidirectional vision system to agricultural mobile robots (AMR) used for trajectory navigation problems, as well as localization matters. To carry through this task, computational methods based on the JSEG algorithm were used to provide the classification and the characterization of such problems, together with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) for pattern recognition. Therefore, it was possible to run simulations and carry out analyses of the performance of JSEG image segmentation technique through Matlab/Octave platforms, along with the application of customized Back-propagation algorithm and statistical methods as structured heuristics methods in a Simulink environment. Having the aforementioned procedures been done, it was practicable to classify and also characterize the HSV space color segments, not to mention allow the recognition of patterns in which reasonably accurate results were obtained. ©2010 IEEE.

Statistical model applied to NetFlow for network intrusion detection

The computers and network services became presence guaranteed in several places. These characteristics resulted in the growth of illicit events and therefore the computers and networks security has become an essential point in any computing environment. Many methodologies were created to identify these events; however, with increasing of users and services on the Internet, many difficulties are found in trying to monitor a large network environment. This paper proposes a methodology for events detection in large-scale networks. The proposal approaches the anomaly detection using the NetFlow protocol, statistical methods and monitoring the environment in a best time for the application. © 2010 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.