Outcomes of Active Surveillance for Ductal Carcinoma in Situ: A Computational Risk Analysis.

BACKGROUND Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is a noninvasive breast lesion with uncertain risk for invasive progression. Usual care (UC) for DCIS consists of treatment upon diagnosis, thus potentially overtreating patients with low propensity for progression. One strategy to reduce overtreatment is active surveillance (AS), whereby DCIS is treated only upon detection of invasive disease. Our goal was to perform a quantitative evaluation of outcomes following an AS strategy for DCIS. METHODS Age-stratified, 10-year disease-specific cumulative mortality (DSCM) for AS was calculated using a computational risk projection model based upon published estimates for natural history parameters, and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data for outcomes. AS projections were compared with the DSCM for patients who received UC. To quantify the propagation of parameter uncertainty, a 95% projection range (PR) was computed, and sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS Under the assumption that AS cannot outperform UC, the projected median differences in 10-year DSCM between AS and UC when diagnosed at ages 40, 55, and 70 years were 2.6% (PR = 1.4%-5.1%), 1.5% (PR = 0.5%-3.5%), and 0.6% (PR = 0.0%-2.4), respectively. Corresponding median numbers of patients needed to treat to avert one breast cancer death were 38.3 (PR = 19.7-69.9), 67.3 (PR = 28.7-211.4), and 157.2 (PR = 41.1-3872.8), respectively. Sensitivity analyses showed that the parameter with greatest impact on DSCM was the probability of understaging invasive cancer at diagnosis. CONCLUSION AS could be a viable management strategy for carefully selected DCIS patients, particularly among older age groups and those with substantial competing mortality risks. The effectiveness of AS could be markedly improved by reducing the rate of understaging.

The ROAM/EORTC-1308 trial: Radiation versus Observation following surgical resection of Atypical Meningioma: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND Atypical meningiomas are an intermediate grade brain tumour with a recurrence rate of 39-58 %. It is not known whether early adjuvant radiotherapy reduces the risk of tumour recurrence and whether the potential side-effects are justified. An alternative management strategy is to perform active monitoring with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and to treat at recurrence. There are no randomised controlled trials comparing these two approaches. METHODS/DESIGN A total of 190 patients will be recruited from neurosurgical/neuro-oncology centres across the United Kingdom, Ireland and mainland Europe. Adult patients undergoing gross total resection of intracranial atypical meningioma are eligible. Patients with multiple meningioma, optic nerve sheath meningioma, previous intracranial tumour, previous cranial radiotherapy and neurofibromatosis will be excluded. Informed consent will be obtained from patients. This is a two-stage trial (both stages will run in parallel): Stage 1 (qualitative study) is designed to maximise patient and clinician acceptability, thereby optimising recruitment and retention. Patients wishing to continue will proceed to randomisation. Stage 2 (randomisation) patients will be randomised to receive either early adjuvant radiotherapy for 6 weeks (60 Gy in 30 fractions) or active monitoring. The primary outcome measure is time to MRI evidence of tumour recurrence (progression-free survival (PFS)). Secondary outcome measures include assessing the toxicity of the radiotherapy, the quality of life, neurocognitive function, time to second line treatment, time to death (overall survival (OS)) and incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. DISCUSSION ROAM/EORTC-1308 is the first multi-centre randomised controlled trial designed to determine whether early adjuvant radiotherapy reduces the risk of tumour recurrence following complete surgical resection of atypical meningioma. The results of this study will be used to inform current neurosurgery and neuro-oncology practice worldwide. TRIAL REGISTRATION ISRCTN71502099 on 19 May 2014.

Characterizing Overall Response to Two-shot Vaccination for BVDV Type 2 in Angus Weanling Calves

Vaccination is a management strategy utilized to help reduce prevalence of bovine respiratory disease in feedlots. However, not all animals respond similarly to vaccinations. It is believed that an animal’s genetics control part of the ability to respond to a vaccination protocol. In order to evaluate the genetic control of a new trait such as response to vaccination, it is important to understand the non-genetic factors that affect an animal’s response to vaccination. The objective of this study was to characterize the non-genetic factors affecting overall response to a two-shot vaccination for bovine viral diarrhea virus type 2 (BVDV2) in Angus weanling calves.

Performance of a transmutation advanced device for sustainable energy application

Preliminary studies have been performed to design a device for nuclear waste transmutation and hydrogen generation based on a gas-cooled pebble bed accelerator driven system, TADSEA (Transmutation Advanced Device for Sustainable Energy Application). In previous studies we have addressed the viability of an ADS Transmutation device that uses as fuel wastes from the existing LWR power plants, encapsulated in graphite in the form of pebble beds, cooled by helium which enables high temperatures (in the order of 1200 K), to generate hydrogen from water either by high temperature electrolysis or by thermochemical cycles. For designing this device several configurations were studied, including several reflectors thickness, to achieve the desired parameters, the transmutation of nuclear waste and the production of 100 MW of thermal power. In this paper new studies performed on deep burn in-core fuel management strategy for LWR waste are presented. The fuel cycle on TADSEA device has been analyzed based on both: driven and transmutation fuel that had been proposed by the General Atomic design of a gas turbine-modular helium reactor. The transmutation results of the three fuel management strategies, using driven, transmutation and standard LWR spent fuel were compared, and several parameters describing the neutron performance of TADSEA nuclear core as the fuel and moderator temperature reactivity coefficients and transmutation chain, are also presented

Bases moleculares de la resistencia a insecticidas en la mosca mediterránea de la fruta Ceratitis Capitata (Wiedemann)

La mosca mediterránea de la fruta Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann, 1824) está considerada una de las plagas clave para la fruticultura. El malatión es un insecticida organofosforado que fue empleado mayoritariamente en España para el control de C. capitata hasta 2009, año en el que dejó de utilizarse por no estar incluido en el anexo I de la Directiva Europea 91/414/ECC. El incremento del uso del malatión, debido a las graves pérdidas económicas causadas por C. capitata, provocó la aparición de poblaciones de campo resistentes. El estudio de una población resistente a malatión, recogida en Castelló en 2004, permitió la identificación de dos mecanismos de resistencia: una mutación puntual (G328A) en la acetilcolinesterasa (AChE) y un mecanismo de resistencia metabólica, probablemente mediado por carboxilesterasas. Teniendo en cuenta estos antecedentes, nos propusimos estudiar los mecanismos implicados en la resistencia a malatión en C. capitata. Además, durante el desarrollo de esta Tesis, el malatión fue sustituido por otros insecticidas como el espinosad y la lambda-cialotrina para el control de la plaga. En este nuevo contexto, es extremadamente importante analizar la susceptibilidad de poblaciones de campo frente a espinosad y estudiar la posible existencia de resistencia cruzada a estos insecticidas, así como sentar las bases para el estudio de futuros mecanismos de resistencia. En primer lugar, analizamos mediante bioensayos con dosis discriminante la susceptibilidad a malatión y espinosad en doce poblaciones de C. capitata de Andalucía, Aragón, Cataluña, Comunidad Valenciana e Islas Baleares; y nuestros resultados sugirieron la presencia de individuos resistentes a malatión en la mayoría de las poblaciones analizadas. En el caso del espinosad, observamos que la susceptibilidad a este insecticida de origen biológico fue elevada en la mayoría de las poblaciones, sin embargo, la población recogida en Xàbia (Alicante) mostró un nivel de susceptibilidad unas dos veces menor al resto de poblaciones. Mediante la selección en laboratorio, obtuvimos dos líneas resistentes a malatión, W-4Km y W-10Km, con unos niveles de resistencia con respeto a la línea susceptible C de 178 y 400 veces, respectivamente. Además, se seleccionó por primera vez en C. capitata una línea altamente resistente a espinosad (Xàbia-W-100s), que actualmente es unas 500 veces más resistente que la línea de laboratorio C. Con el objetivo de escoger la estrategia más adecuada para el manejo de la plaga, estudiamos la susceptibilidad a diferentes tipos de insecticidas en la línea resistente a malatión W- 4Km. En esta línea detectamos resistencia cruzada moderada a los organofosforados fentión, diazinón, fosmet, triclorfón y metil-clorpirifos (de 7 a 16 veces) y frente al carbamato carbaril, al piretroide lambda-cialotrina y al quimioesterilizante lufenurón (de 4 a 6 veces). Por otra parte, la resistencia cruzada frente a espinosad fue baja (1,5 veces). Es importante destacar que los niveles de resistencia estimados frente a todos los insecticidas fueron de uno o dos órdenes de magnitud inferiores al observado en la línea W-4Km frente a malatión (178 veces), hecho que podría deberse, al menos, a dos posibles hipótesis: que la mutación AChE G328A confiera mayor insensibilidad al malaoxón (forma activa del malatión) que a otros insecticidas que tienen como diana la AChE y/o, en segundo lugar, que el mecanismo de resistencia mediado por carboxilesterasas hidrolice el malatión de manera más eficiente que los otros insecticidas analizados. En el estudio de nuevos mecanismos de resistencia en C. capitata, por un lado, analizamos la diversidad de enzimas citocromo P450, asociadas con resistencia metabólica en otras especies, y por otro lado, desarrollamos un sistema para la detección de nuevas mutaciones puntuales que pudiesen aparecer en los genes que codifican la AChE (Ccace2) y la aliesterasa (Ccae7). Mediante el empleo de cebadores degenerados obtuvimos 37 genes CYP, que codifican enzimas P450, pertenecientes a cinco familias. Posteriormente, en un estudio de inducción con fenobarbital, observamos que la expresión de cuatro de los seis genes analizados era susceptible de ser inducida. Por otro lado, se puso a punto un sistema que permite amplificar y secuenciar, a partir de DNA genómico, los exones de los genes Ccace2 y Ccae7 en los que se han encontrado mutaciones relacionadas con resistencia a insecticidas en otras especies. Los resultados obtenidos facilitarán el estudio de nuevos mecanismos de resistencia mediados por estas enzimas en C. capitata. Se diseñó un método PCR-RFLP para identificar los individuos portadores de la mutación AChE G328A (alelo de resistencia Ccace2R) sin la necesidad de realizar bioensayos y que, además, permite detectar resistencia cuando ésta se encuentra a baja frecuencia. Según el análisis realizado, el alelo Ccace2R se observó en 25 de las 27 localidades españolas muestreadas en el territorio español, incluyendo las Islas Baleares y Canarias. Sin embargo, este alelo no se detectó en poblaciones procedentes de once países y de cinco continentes. El análisis de la presencia del alelo Ccace2R en las líneas resistentes a malatión durante el proceso de selección en el laboratorio mostró una rápida disminución de los homocigotos, tanto para el alelo susceptible como para el alelo de resistencia, en favor de los individuos heterocigotos. Así, después de 52 generaciones de selección, se observó que la totalidad de los individuos analizados de la línea W-10Km presentaban un genotipo heterocigoto para la mutación AChE G328A. Este desequilibrio contradice la segregación mendeliana esperada para un gen con dos alelos pero podría ser explicado por la existencia de una duplicación del gen Ccace2. La demostración de la presencia de esta duplicación se realizó mediante: i) el cruzamiento de individuos heterocigotos de la línea W-10Km con homocigotos susceptibles de la línea C, que dio lugar a una descendencia en la que el 100% de los individuos eran heterocigotos; ii) la evaluación del número de copias del gen Ccace2 por PCR cuantitativa en tiempo real (qPCR), que resultó dos veces mayor en individuos de la línea W-10Km en comparación con los de la línea C; iii) el análisis del nivel de expresión de Ccace2, que fue el doble en la línea W-10Km con respecto a la línea C, y iv) el estudio de la actividad AChE, que resultó mayor en los individuos de la línea W-10Km. Según los resultados obtenidos, una duplicación del gen Ccace2 provoca la coexistencia en un mismo cromosoma del alelo silvestre y del alelo mutado y, además, las dos copias del gen Ccace2, al estar ligadas, producen una heterocigosis permanente (Ccace2RS). De esta manera se explica que el hecho de que 100% de los individuos de la línea W-10Km mostrasen un perfil de restricción correspondiente a un individuo heterocigoto ya que, en realidad, eran homocigotos estructurales para la duplicación (genotipo CCace2RS/RS). Se ha detectado un coste biológico asociado a la duplicación que consiste en un incremento en la mortalidad acumulada de los adultos a partir del séptimo día después de la emergencia. La descripción de la duplicación Ccace2RS supone la identificación de un nuevo mecanismo de resistencia a malatión en C. capitata. Finalmente, mediante el diseño de un método de doble PCR-RFLP se determinó la presencia de la duplicación Ccace2RS en la mayoría de las poblaciones españolas. La proporción de individuos portadores de la duplicación osciló entre el 5% y el 35%, observándose los mayores valores de frecuencia en las poblaciones de C. capitata recogidas en la cuenca mediterránea. Podemos por lo tanto concluir que la resistencia a malatión asociada a la mutación AChE G328A y a la duplicación Ccace2RS está ampliamente establecida en las poblaciones españolas de C. capitata. Nuestros resultados desaconsejan la utilización del malatión (si fuera de nuevo autorizado) o de otros organofosforados para el control de esta plaga. Además, una de las líneas resistentes a malatión mostró resistencia cruzada frente a insecticidas con diferentes modos de acción y que se utilizan actualmente para el control de C. capitata, tales como lambda-cialotrina y lufenurón. La alta susceptibilidad a espinosad observada en las poblaciones españolas, así como la reducida resistencia cruzada estimada para este insecticida, sugieren que su utilización es adecuada para el control de la plaga. Sin embargo, la utilización de un sólo insecticida puede entrañar riesgos por favorecer la selección de resistencia, de hecho, mediante selección en laboratorio se obtuvo una población altamente resistente a espinosad. Por tanto, es recomendable implementar programas de control integrado y de manejo de la resistencia en C. capitata utilizando distintos sistemas de control e insecticidas con diferentes mecanismos de acción que permitan su sostenibilidad en el tiempo. Los sistemas de detección de alelos de resistencia desarrollados en este trabajo permitirán la detección precoz de resistencia en campo, facilitando la decisión sobre el sistema de control más adecuado. Además, los conocimientos generados podrán contribuir al desarrollo de nuevos sistemas de detección para otros mecanismos de resistencia. Abstract. The Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann, 1824), is considered one of the most harmful pests in fruit crops. Until 2009, when malathion use was banned due to its not inclusion in the Annex I of Directive 91/414/EEC, the application of this organophosphate (OP) insecticide in Spain increased gradually due to the large economic losses caused by C. capitata. The increase in the frequency of treatments resulted in the development of resistant field populations. The study of a malathion-resistant population, collected in 2004 in Castelló (Comunidad Valenciana), allowed the identification of two resistance mechanisms: a single point mutation (G328A) in the target acetylcholinesterase (AChE), as well as a metabolic resistance mechanism, most likely carboxylesterase-mediated. Taking all the preceding into account, we studied the malathion resistance mechanisms in C. capitata. During the development of this PhD Thesis malathion use was banned by the European Union, being replaced by other insecticides, such as spinosad and lambda-cyhalotrin. Within this new working frame, the need to analyse the possible existence of cross-resistance to these insecticides and the susceptibility to spinosad in field populations was raised. This would define the baseline for future studies on resistance mechanisms. Firstly, through discriminant dose bioassays, we analysed malathion and spinosad susceptibility in twelve C. capitata populations from Andalucia, Aragon, Cataluña, C. Valenciana and the Baleares Islands. Our results suggest the presence of malathion-resistant individuals in most of the populations analysed. Regarding spinosad, we noticed a high susceptibility to this biologically derived insecticide in most of the populations, but in the one collected in Xabia (Alicante), which had a susceptibility level two times lower than the rest of populations. Through laboratory selection, we obtained two malathion-resistant strains, W-4Km and W-10Km, with resistance levels 178- and 400-fold, respectively, compared to the control susceptible C strain. Besides, a strain highly-resistant to spinosad (Xabia-W-100s), 500-times more resistant than control C strain, was selected. In order to decide the most appropriate management strategy for the pest, we studied the susceptibility to different insecticides in the malathion-resistant W-4Km strain. We detected a moderated cross-resistance to the OPs fenthion, diazinon, phosmet, trichlorphon and methylchlorpyrifos (7- to 16-fold), and to the carbamate carbaryl, the pyretroid lambda-cyhalotrin and the chemosterilizer lufenuron (4- to 6-fold). On the other hand, cross-resistance to spinosad was low (1.5-fold). It is important to note that resistance levels to all insecticides were one or two orders of magnitude less than that observed against malathion in W-4Km strain (178-fold), a fact that might be due to, at least, two possible causes: mutation AChE G328A may provide a higher insensitivity to malaoxon (the active form of malathion) than to other insecticides having AChE as target, and/or, secondly, the carboxylesterase-mediated resistance mechanism hydrolyzes malathion more efficiently than all other analysed insecticides. To investigate new resistance mechanisms in C. capitata we analysed the diversity of the cytochrome P450 enzymes, which have been associated to metabolic resistance in insects, and we developed a new method to detect single point mutations in acetylcholinesterase (Ccace2) and aliesterase (Ccae7) genes that could appear. Using degenerate primers we obtained 37 CYP genes, coding P450 enzymes, included in five families. Afterwards, in a phenobarbital-induction study, we observed that the expression of 4 out of the 6 analysed genes could be induced. On the other hand, a system was set up to amplify and to sequence from genomic DNA the exons of genes Ccace2 and Ccae7 where mutations related to insecticide resistance have been found in other species. The results obtained could facilitate the study of new resistance mechanisms in C. capitata mediated by these enzymes. A PCR-RFLP method was designed to detect the presence of the mutation AChE G328A (resistance allele Ccace2R), with no need to perform bioassays and allowing detecting resistance at low frequency. According to the analysis, the resistance allele was found in 25 out of 27 sampled locations in Spain, including the Balearic and the Canary Islands. However, this allele was not detected in other populations collected in 11 countries from 5 continents. The follow-up of the presence of the allele Ccace2R in the malathion-resistant strains during the selection process in the laboratory showed a quick decrease in homozygous individuals, for both the susceptible and the resistant alleles, favouring heterozygous. Thus, after 52 generations of selection, all the individuals analysed from W-10Km strain showed a heterozygous genotype for mutation AChE G328A, contradicting mendelian segregation as expected for a gene with two alleles. Afterwards, we were able to demonstrate that this was caused by the presence of a duplication of the gene coding acetylcholinesterase by: i) crossing heterozygous individuals from W-10Km strain with susceptible homozygous from C strain, originating a F1 population in which 100% of individuals were heterozygous; ii) evaluating the number of copies of gen Ccace2 by quantitative PCR in real time (qPCR), that happened to be twice higher in individuals from W-10Km VII strain when compared with C strain; iii) analysing the level of expression of Ccace2, twice in W- 10Km strain when compared to C strain; iv) studying the acetylcholinesterase activity, that was higher in individuals from W-10Km strain. According to these results, duplication of gen Ccace2 originates the coexistence of the susceptible and the resistant allele in the same chromosome. The two linked copies of the gene Ccace2 provoke the existence of permanent heterozygosis (Ccace2RS). This explains why the 100% of individuals from W-10Km strain showed an heterozygous restriction pattern since, in fact, they were structural homozygotes for the duplication (genotype Ccace2RS/RS). A biological cost has been detected associated to this duplication, consisting in a rise in accumulated adult mortality from the seventh day after emergence. The Ccace2RS duplication described in this study represents a new resistance mechanism to malathion in C. capitata. Finally, by the design of a double PCR-RFLP method, the presence of Ccace2RS duplication was confirmed in most of the Spanish populations. We observed that the proportion of individuals carrying the duplication oscillated between 5 and 35%, the frequency being higher in those C. capitata populations collected in the area of the Mediterranean basin. Therefore, we can conclude that malathion resistance associated to mutation AChE G328A and to Ccace2RS duplication are widely distributed in Spanish populations of C. capitata. Our results advice against the use of malathion (if it came to be newly authorized for use) or other OPs for the control of this pest. Besides, one of the malathion-resistant strains showed cross-resistance against insecticides with diverse action modes that are currently used for pest control, such as lambdacyhalotrin and lufenuron. High susceptibility to spinosad in the Spanish populations, as well as the reduced cross-resistance estimated for this insecticide suggests its adequacy for Medfly control. However, the use of a single insecticide is a risky strategy since it favours the selection of resistance. In fact, a population highly resistant to spinosad was obtained through laboratory selection. Therefore, it is advisable to implement integrated pest management (IPM) and resistance management programs for C. capitata control. Using insecticides with different modes of action and diverse control systems would contribute to the sustainability of the pest control. The resistance allele detection systems developed through this work will allow the early detection of resistance in the field, making possible the selection of the most appropriate method for pest control. Besides, the generated knowledge may also contribute to the development of new detection systems for other resistance mechanisms.

Role of maize stover incorporation on nitrogen oxide emissions in a non-irrigated Mediterranean barley field.

Aims Agricultural soils in semiarid Mediterranean areas are characterized by low organic matter contents and low fertility levels. Application of crop residues and/or manures as amendments is a cost-effective and sustainable alternative to overcome this problem. However, these management practices may induce important changes in the nitrogen oxide emissions from these agroecosystems, with additional impacts on carbon dioxide emissions. In this context, a field experiment was carried out with a barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) crop under Mediterranean conditions to evaluate the effect of combining maize (Zea mays L.) residues and N fertilizer inputs (organic and/or mineral) on these emissions. Methods Crop yield and N uptake, soil mineral N concentrations, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), denitrification capacity, N2O, NO and CO2 fluxes were measured during the growing season. Results The incorporation of maize stover increased N2O emissions during the experimental period by c. 105 %. Conversely, NO emissions were significantly reduced in the plots amended with crop residues. The partial substitution of urea by pig slurry reduced net N2O emissions by 46 and 39 %, with and without the incorporation of crop residues respectively. Net emissions of NO were reduced 38 and 17 % for the same treatments. Molar DOC:NO 3 − ratio was found to be a robust predictor of N2O and NO fluxes. Conclusions The main effect of the interaction between crop residue and N fertilizer application occurred in the medium term (4–6 month after application), enhancing N2O emissions and decreasing NO emissions as consequence of residue incorporation. The substitution of urea by pig slurry can be considered a good management strategy since N2O and NO emissions were reduced by the use of the organic residue.

Factores de riesgo que inciden negativamente en los cumplimientos de tiempo y coste programados en la ejecución de proyectos de edificios de uso hotelero en España

Las desviaciones de tiempo y coste constituyen un fenómeno muy frecuente en la industria de la construcción. Existe un gran número de proyectos que no se terminan en el plazo y el tiempo estipulados, y esto parece que se ha convertido más en la norma que en la excepción. Los proyectos de construcción son heterogéneos por naturaleza y pueden llegar a ser muy complejos, involucrando numerosos procesos y expuestos a infinidad de variables y factores que pueden afectar el cumplimiento de los objetivos de tiempo y coste. Las desviaciones de tiempo y coste no favorecen ni al promotor ni al resto de equipos participantes del proyecto, dando lugar además la mayoría de las veces a situaciones de conflictos y relaciones adversas entre participantes del proyecto. Es por todo ello que surge la necesidad de atender a una estrategia de gestión de riesgos eficaz, como herramienta esencial de la gestión de proyectos para contribuir al éxito de los mismos. Es preciso considerar también que los proyectos de construcción pueden presentar distintas características específicas según el tipo de proyecto de que se traten. El presente trabajo de investigación estudia concretamente los proyectos de edificios de uso hotelero, los cuales pueden presentar estructuras organizativas muy diversas, incluyendo numerosos agentes participantes y procesos que a su vez se desarrollan en un entorno que ya es muy dinámico por su propia naturaleza. En el sector hotelero el cumplimiento de los objetivos de tiempo y coste del proyecto son especialmente importantes ya que cualquier retraso en la fecha de apertura estimada del hotel se traducirá en pérdidas importantes de negocio y cuota de mercado y podrá llevar asociadas también repercusiones importantes en otros aspectos relacionados con la operativa hotelera. Si se conocen las causas que originan tales desviaciones de tiempo y coste, se podrán establecer las correspondientes medidas de actuación para anticiparnos a ellas y que no se produzcan, siendo ésta la base del propósito de esta tesis. Así, la identificación de riesgos supone el primer paso para una gestión de riesgos eficaz, fundamental para contribuir al éxito de un proyecto. El contexto de la investigación delimita como lugar geográfico de estudio España, donde el sector turístico constituye un motor importante de la economía y en el que la eficiencia y competitividad debe estar reflejada también en el proceso del proyecto edificatorio, minimizándose los retrasos y sobrecostes. El presente estudio investiga por tanto los factores de riesgo más críticos que dan lugar a desviaciones de tiempo y coste en proyectos de edificios de uso hotelero en España. A partir del análisis de la literatura existente se genera una propuesta de identificación de factores de riesgo, que se analiza mediante un análisis cualitativo basado en la opinión de expertos y estudio de casos específicos. De los resultados de este análisis se determinan los niveles críticos para cada factor de riesgo, se comparan además las percepciones de niveles de riesgo según distintos tipos de grupos profesionales, y se establece un procedimiento en cuanto a prioridad de acción de respuesta. Así, se desarrolla una propuesta final de identificación y matriz de factores de riesgo con el objetivo de que pueda servir de base a propietarios, empresas gestoras y otros participantes de proyectos hoteleros para diseñar un plan de gestión de riesgos eficaz, contribuyendo de este modo al éxito del proyecto en cuanto a cumplimiento de objetivos de tiempo y coste programados. ABSTRACT Cost and schedule overruns constitute a very frequent phenomenon in the construction industry. A large number of construction projects do not finish on the estimated time and cost, and this scenario seems to be becoming the norm rather than the exception. Construction projects are heterogeneous by nature and they can become very complex as they involve a large number of processes which are subject to many variables and factors that may give rise to time and cost overruns. Time and cost overruns cause dissatisfaction not only to owners but all stakeholders involved in the project, leading most of the times to undesirable situations of conflicts and adversarial relationships between project participants. Hence, it becomes necessary to adopt an effective risk management strategy as an essential part of project management in order to achieve project success. Construction projects may have different characteristics depending on the type of project. This research specifically focuses on hotel construction projects. Hotel projects usually involve complex organizational structures, including many project participants and processes which develop in an environment that is already dynamic by nature. In this type of projects, the achievement of time and cost objectives is particularly important, as any delay of the hotel opening date will result in significant loss of business and market share and may also involve key important implications related to hotel operations. If the risk factors that lead to time and cost overrun are known in advance, preventive actions could be established in order to avoid them, so that time and cost overruns are minimized. This constitutes the aim of this research, being risk identification the first step of any effective risk management strategy for project success. The context of this research is focused on a particular geographical area, being this Spain. Tourism in Spain is a major contributor to the Spanish economy, and efficiency and competiveness should also be reflected in the building processes of the hotel industry, where delays and cost overruns should be kept to the minimum. The aim of this study is to explore the most critical risk factors leading to time and cost overruns in hotel construction projects in Spain. From the analysis of the literature review, a proposal of a risk identification framework is developed, which will be further analyzed by a qualitative assessment based on expert opinions and the study of specific case studies. From the results of this assessment, the levels of risk criticality are determined for the identified factors, a comparison of the perceptions of risk levels among different groups of respondents is also carried out, and a procedure for prioritization of factors in terms of needs of response is established. A final proposal of a risk register matrix framework is then developed in order to assist hotel owners, project management companies or other hotel project stakeholders, and provide them with a base to design their own specific risk management plans, contributing in this way to project success with regards to the achievement of cost and time objectives.

Análise de ligação do gene de resistência Zym-2 com marcadores microssatélites e reação de acessos de meloeiro ao Zucchini yellow mosaic virus (ZYMV)

As viroses causam perdas significativas na cultura do melão. Dentre essas, o vírus do mosaico amarelo da abobrinha-de-moita (Zucchini yellow mosaic virus- ZYMV) possui grande importância para a cultura e é encontrado em todos os locais de plantio de cucurbitáceas. O controle desse vírus através da resistência genética é a forma mais eficiente de manejo. O acesso PI414723 é a única fonte de resistência de meloeiro ao ZYMV. Essa resistência é oligogênica e supostamente condicionada por três genes dominantes: Zym-1, Zym-2 e Zym-3. A localização cromossômica do gene Zym-1 já foi confirmada no grupo de ligação 2, próximo ao marcador CMAG36. Entretanto, a localização de Zym-2 ainda carece de confirmação experimental, muito embora existam evidências de sua localização no grupo de ligação 10 (LGX). Sendo assim, um dos objetivos do presente trabalho foi confirmar a localização do gene Zym-2 através de análises de ligação com marcadores microssatélites (SSRs). Para tanto, foi utilizada uma população F2 derivada do cruzamento PI414723 x \'Védrantais\'. As plantas foram inoculadas mecanicamente com o isolado RN6-F, patótipo 0, duas vezes em um intervalo de 24 h. A confirmação da infecção e a quantificação dos títulos virais nas plantas F2 foram realizadas através do teste PTA-ELISA. O DNA genômico das plantas foi extraído da primeira folha verdadeira e utilizado nas reações de PCR com primers específicos para SSRs selecionados pertencentes ao LGX. Observou-se uma distribuição assimétrica de classes de absorbância e maior frequência de indivíduos F2 na classe com menor valor (0,1 a 0,2), sugerindo a existência de um gene de efeito maior. O teste chi-quadrado mostrou que todos os marcadores segregaram na frequência esperada (1:2:1), exceto o marcador CMCT134b. A ligação do Zym-2 aos marcadores foi confirmada por meio de regressão linear simples. Dos marcadores analisados, a regressão linear foi significativa para MU6549 e CMBR55, com p-valores de 0,011 e 0,0054, respectivamente. As análises de ligação mostraram que as ordens e as distâncias entre os marcadores condizem com os mapas presentes na literatura. Um segundo objetivo do estudo foi o de avaliar a reação ao ZYMV de 42 acessos de meloeiro oriundos da região Nordeste do Brasil, com o intuito de explorar novas fontes de resistência. Foram realizados dois experimentos utilizando a mesma metodologia citada anteriormente. O título viral médio entre os acessos variou de 0,123 a 0,621 no experimento 1 e de 0,019 a 0,368 no experimento 2. Alguns acessos apresentaram consistentemente baixos títulos virais, próximos aos do acesso resistente PI414723 e dos controles negativos (plantas não inoculadas da cultivar \'Védrantais\'). Portanto, estes acessos mostram-se como potenciais fontes de resistência ao vírus para o emprego em programas de melhoramento.

Suplementação luminosa no tomateiro cultivado em diferentes sistemas de condução em ambiente protegido

O auto sombreamento das folhas posicionadas nas porções inferiores do dossel de plantas pode limitar a produtividade em cultivos tutorados. Assim, a produtividade do tomateiro pode ser aumentada por meio da suplementação luminosa posicionada no interior do dossel, técnica conhecida como interlighting. O sistema de condução do tomateiro também interfere na distribuição da radiação solar, além de afetar os tratos culturais, a competição intra e entre plantas e a relação entre as partes vegetativas e reprodutivas. Desta forma, o objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a influência do sistema de condução de minitomate cultivar \'Sweet Grape\' em diferentes números de hastes por planta (duas, três e quatro hastes) e da suplementação luminosa com módulos de LED na produtividade e qualidade dos frutos, na eficiência do uso de água e nutrientes, além da morfologia das plantas e fatores relacionados ao manejo cultural, em ambiente protegido nas condições climáticas do sudeste brasileiro. Ao longo do ciclo de cultivo foram avaliados os seguintes parâmetros: volume irrigado, pH, condutividade elétrica, porcentagem e volume da solução drenada pelos vasos. As colheitas foram realizadas semanalmente, a partir de 90 dias após o transplante. Os frutos colhidos foram classificados, contados e pesados para a obtenção do número e massa de frutos grandes, médios, pequenos, comercial, não comercial e total. Amostras de frutos e tecidos foliares foram coletadas em cinco períodos e avaliadas quanto ao teor de sólidos solúveis, pH, acidez titulável e concentração de ácido ascórbico nos frutos e teor de nutrientes nas folhas. Além disso, ao final do ciclo cultural, foram realizadas as medições dos seguintes parâmetros morfológicos nas plantas: comprimento de hastes, número de cachos normais e bifurcados por hastes e diâmetro apical, mediano e basal das hastes. A suplementação luminosa apresentou aumento no número e na massa de frutos grandes e médios, elevando a produtividade total em 12%. Plantas com duas e três hastes apresentaram maior acúmulo de massa total de frutos, porém plantas com três hastes apresentaram maior massa de frutos não comerciais, com redução na massa de frutos comerciais. A maior eficiência no uso de água e nutrientes foi alcançada em plantas cultivadas com duas hastes. Plantas com quatro hastes demandaram mais solução nutritiva comparada às plantas com duas e três hastes. Esta maior demanda de solução, acarretou em aumento da condutividade elétrica da solução drenada. Plantas com quatro hastes apresentaram maiores teores de sólidos solúveis nos frutos. A suplementação luminosa também resultou em aumento do teor de sólidos solúveis e ligeiro aumento no teor de ácido ascórbico nos frutos. A suplementação luminosa favoreceu o acúmulo de nitrogênio, fósforo e potássio nas folhas do tomateiro. Desta forma, conclui-se que a suplementação luminosa é uma estratégia de manejo tecnicamente viável nas condições climática estudada. O sistema de condução de haste afeta a produtividade e qualidade dos frutos do tomateiro. Plantas com duas hastes além de apresentar maior produtividade de frutos comerciais, mostrou-se a estratégia mais eficiente no uso da água e nutrientes.

Redes sociales en industrias culturales: opiniones desde la praxis

Tanto por el público al que se dirigen como por el tipo de «producto» que ofrecen, las industrias culturales pueden obtener múltiples ventajas con el uso de las redes sociales. En el presente estudio analizamos el papel que juegan las redes sociales online en las empresas culturales a través de la opinión de cualificados expertos en redes sociales y con el método Delphi. Las conclusiones revelan que, en el ámbito de las empresas culturales, existe una prevalencia de los usos utilitarios sobre los expresivos y de las motivaciones proactivas sobre las reactivas, con referencia a las redes sociales.

Development of a Conceptual Site Model for Evaluating Seawater Intrusion under Sea Level Rise Scenarios Using Analytical Methods

Island County is located in the Puget Sound of Washington State and includes several islands, the largest of which is Whidbey Island. Central Whidbey Island was chosen as the project site, as residents use groundwater for their water supply and seawater intrusion near the coast is known to contaminate this resource. In 1989, Island County adopted a Saltwater Intrusion Policy and used chloride concentrations in existing wells in order to define and map “risk zones.” In 2005, this method of defining vulnerability was updated with the use of water level elevations in conjunction with chloride concentrations. The result of this work was a revised map of seawater intrusion vulnerability that is currently in use by Island County. This groundwater management strategy is defined as trigger-level management and is largely a reactive tool. In order to evaluate trends in the hydrogeologic processes at the site, including seawater intrusion under sea level rise scenarios, this report presents a workflow where groundwater flow and discharge to the sea are quantified using a revised conceptual site model. The revised conceptual site model used several simplifying assumptions that allow for first-order quantitative predictions of seawater intrusion using analytical methods. Data from water well reports included lithologic and well construction information, static water levels, and aquifer tests for specific capacity. Results from specific capacity tests define the relationship between discharge and drawdown and were input for a modified Theis equation to solve for transmissivity (Arihood, 2009). Components of the conceptual site model were created in ArcGIS and included interpolation of water level elevation, creation of groundwater basins, and the calculation of net recharge and groundwater discharge for each basin. The revised conceptual site model was then used to hypothesize regarding hydrogeologic processes based on observed trends in groundwater flow. Hypotheses used to explain a reduction in aquifer thickness and hydraulic gradient were: (1) A large increase in transmissivity occurring near the coast. (2) The reduced aquifer thickness and hydraulic gradient were the result of seawater intrusion. (3) Data used to create the conceptual site model were insufficient to resolve trends in groundwater flow. For Hypothesis 2, analytical solutions for groundwater flow under Dupuit assumptions were applied in order to evaluate seawater intrusion under projected sea level rise scenarios. Results indicated that a rise in sea level has little impact on the position of a saltwater wedge; however, a reduction in recharge has significant consequences. Future work should evaluate groundwater flow using an expanded monitoring well network and aquifer recharge should be promoted by reducing surface water runoff.

An identification tool for the Australian weedy Sporobolus species based on random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) profiles

Based on morphological features alone, there is considerable difficulty in identifying the 5 most economically damaging weed species of Sporobolus [ viz. S. pyramidalis P. Beauv., S. natalensis ( Steud.) Dur and Schinz, S. fertilis ( Steud.) Clayton, S. africanus (Poir.) Robyns and Tourney, and S. jacquemontii Kunth.] found in Australia. A polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based random amplified polymorphic DNA ( RAPD) technique was used to create a series of genetic markers that could positively identify the 5 major weeds from the other less damaging weedy and native Sporobolus species. In the initial RAPD pro. ling experiment, using arbitrarily selected primers and involving 12 species of Sporobolus, 12 genetic markers were found that, when used in combination, could consistently identify the 5 weedy species from all others. Of these 12 markers, the most diagnostic were UBC51(490) for S. pyramidalis and S. natalensis; UBC43(310,2000,2100) for S. fertilis and S. africanus; and OPA20(850) and UBC43(470) for S. jacquemontii. Species-specific markers could be found only for S. jacquemontii. In an effort to understand why there was difficulty in obtaining species-specific markers for some of the weedy species, a RAPD data matrix was created using 40 RAPD products. These 40 products amplified by 6 random primers from 45 individuals belonging to 12 species, were then subjected to numerical taxonomy and multivariate system (NTSYS pc version 1.70) analysis. The RAPD similarity matrix generated from the analysis indicated that S. pyramidalis was genetically more similar to S. natalensis than to other species of the 'S. indicus complex'. Similarly, S. jacquemontii was more similar to S. pyramidalis, and S. fertilis was more similar to S. africanus than to other species of the complex. Sporobolus pyramidalis, S. jacquemontii, S. africanus, and S. creber exhibited a low within-species genetic diversity, whereas high genetic diversity was observed within S. natalensis, S. fertilis, S. sessilis, S. elongates, and S. laxus. Cluster analysis placed all of the introduced species ( major and minor weedy species) into one major cluster, with S. pyramidalis and S. natalensis in one distinct subcluster and S. fertilis and S. africanus in another. The native species formed separate clusters in the phenograms. The close genetic similarity of S. pyramidalis to S. natalensis, and S. fertilis to S. africanus may explain the difficulty in obtaining RAPD species-specific markers. The importance of these results will be within the Australian dairy and beef industries and will aid in the development of integrated management strategy for these weeds.

Assessing moth migration and population structuring in Helicoverpa annigera (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) at the regional scale: Example from the Darling Downs, Australia

Analysis of gene flow and migration of Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) in a major cropping region of Australia identified substantial genetic structuring, migration events, and significant population genotype changes over the 38-mo sample period from November 1999 to January 2003. Five highly variable microsatellite markers were used to analyze 916 individuals from 77 collections across 10 localities in the Darling Downs. The molecular data indicate that in some years (e.g., April 2002-March 2003), low levels of H. armigera migration and high differentiation between populations occurred, whereas in other years (e.g., April 2001-March 2002), there were higher levels of adult moth movement resulting in little local structuring of populations. Analysis of populations in other Australian cropping regions provided insight into the quantity and direction of immigration of H. armigera adults into the Darling Downs growing region of Australia. These data provide evidence adult moth movement differs from season to season, highlighting the importance of studies in groups such as the Lepidoptera extending over consecutive years, because short-term sampling may be misleading when population dynamics and migration change so significantly. This research demonstrates the importance of maintaining a coordinated insecticide resistance management strategy, because in some years H. armigera populations may be independent within a region and thus significantly influenced by local management practices; however, periods with high migration will occur and resistance may rapidly spread.

Evaluation of Melanotaenia duboulayi (Atheriniformes : Melanotaeniidae), Hypseleotris galii (Perciformes : Eleotridae), and larvicide Vectolex (R) WG (Bacillus sphaericus) for integrated control of Culex annulirostris

Australian freshwater fish species Melanotaenia duboulayi and Hypseleotris galii were selected for a small plot field evaluation of an integrated pest management strategy using native fish and VectoLex® WG (Bacillus sphaericus) for the control of Culex annulirostris Skuse, the principal freshwater vector of arbovirus Ross River virus in Australia. When tested alone, the level of control afforded by M. duboulayi and H. galii was highly dependent on the prerelease density of mosquito larvae; and even when stocking rates as high as 10 g per pond (>30 kg/ha) were used, larval abundance was too high to attain adequate control from fish alone. In contrast, treatment with VectoLex WG at 500 g/ha resulted in 100% mortality of Cx. annulirostris immatures, but no residual activity was evident. The delayed reduction of Cx. annulirostris immatures in ponds stocked with fish alone, and the recolonization by Cx. annulirostris in ponds after treatment with B. sphaericus, did not occur when both treatments were combined.