A spatial modelling framework for assessing climate change impacts on freshwater ecosystems: Response of brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) biomass to warming water temperature

Mountain regions worldwide are particularly sensitive to on-going climate change. Specifically in the Alps in Switzerland, the temperature has increased twice as fast than in the rest of the Northern hemisphere. Water temperature closely follows the annual air temperature cycle, severely impacting streams and freshwater ecosystems. In the last 20 years, brown trout (Salmo trutta L) catch has declined by approximately 40-50% in many rivers in Switzerland. Increasing water temperature has been suggested as one of the most likely cause of this decline. Temperature has a direct effect on trout population dynamics through developmental and disease control but can also indirectly impact dynamics via food-web interactions such as resource availability. We developed a spatially explicit modelling framework that allows spatial and temporal projections of trout biomass using the Aare river catchment as a model system, in order to assess the spatial and seasonal patterns of trout biomass variation. Given that biomass has a seasonal variation depending on trout life history stage, we developed seasonal biomass variation models for three periods of the year (Autumn-Winter, Spring and Summer). Because stream water temperature is a critical parameter for brown trout development, we first calibrated a model to predict water temperature as a function of air temperature to be able to further apply climate change scenarios. We then built a model of trout biomass variation by linking water temperature to trout biomass measurements collected by electro-fishing in 21 stations from 2009 to 2011. The different modelling components of our framework had overall a good predictive ability and we could show a seasonal effect of water temperature affecting trout biomass variation. Our statistical framework uses a minimum set of input variables that make it easily transferable to other study areas or fish species but could be improved by including effects of the biotic environment and the evolution of demographical parameters over time. However, our framework still remains informative to spatially highlight where potential changes of water temperature could affect trout biomass. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.-

Response rainbow trout (Salmon gairdneri) blood gas transport system to temperature, oxygen availability and photoperiod

Hematological status in rainbow trout, Salmo gairdneri, was examined in relation to eight combinations of three environmental fa ctors; temperature (5°, 20°C), oxygen availability «35%, >70% saturation) and photoperiod (16L:8D, 8L:16D) and evaluated by 3-factor analysis of variance. Hemog l obin and hematocrit , indicators of oxygenc arrying capacity increased significantly at the higher temperature, following exposure to hypoxia and in relation to reduced light period. Significant variations in mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration were not detected. The effects of temperature and oxygen availability were more pronounced than that of photoperiod which was generally masked. Although oxygen availability and photoperiod did not interact with temperature, the interaction of the former fac tors was significant. Elec trophoresis revealed twelve hemoglobin isomorphs. Relative concentration changes were found in re lation to the factors c onsidered with temperature>hypoxia>photoperiod. Howeve r , in terms of absolute concentration, effects were hypoxia>temperature>photoperiod. Photoperiod effects were again masked by temperature and (or) hypoxia. Red cell +2 l eve ls of [CI ] and [Mg ], critical elements in the hemoglobin-oxygen affinity regulating system, were also significantly altered. Red cell CI +2 was influenced only by temperature ; Mg by temper ature and oxygen. No photoperiod influence on either ions was observed. Under nominal 'summer' conditions, these changes point to the likelihood of increases in oxygen-c arrying c apac ity coupled with low Hb-02 affinity adjustments which would be expected to increase oxygen delivery rates to their more rapidly metabolising tissues.

Report of the Committee appointed to inquire into the Present condition and distribution of the flags, standards and colors, which have been taken by the forces of the United States from their enemies, and whether it would be expedient to make any provision in relation to them.--

Adam Seybet, Chairman.

The wars of the gulls; : an historical romance in three chapters; chap. I, Shewing how and why and with whom the gulls went to war: chap. II, Shewing how the gulls make the deep to boil like a pot: chap. III, Shewing how a certain doughty general of the gulls goes forth to play the game of hull-gull in Upper Canada.

Transcribed on front paste-down: W.G. Phelps Oct. 29 1890.

Youth with intellectual disabilities and the right to make choices : investigating the family context to inform a training program

People with intellectual disabilities (ID) are more likely to be victims of abuse and human rights violations than people without ID. The 3Rs: Rights, Respect, and Responsibility project has developed and is testing a human rights training program for adults with ID. The current project was conducted to make recommendations to adapt the 3Rs rights training program to be used with youth with ID and their families. An interpretive phenomenological framework was employed to investigate youth with ID, parents', and siblings' perceptions of the i r experiences with choice making, an enactment of rights, in the family context. Thematic analysis of interviews revealed that, consistent with previous research, family members consider family values, conventions, and family members' well being when making decisions. A training program should promote a consideration of expanded opportunities for youth with ID to make choices and should be flexible to address individual families' cultures, needs, and desires.

How health organizations can apply scenario based planning and analytic technologies to make strategic consequential decisions in a time of uncertainty

The magnitude of the cervical cancer problem, coupled with the potential for prevention with recent technological advances, made it imperative to step back and reassess strategic options for dealing with cervical cancer screening in Kenya. The purpose of this qualitative study was: 1) to explore the extent to which the Participatory Action Research (PAR) methodology and the Scenario Based Planning (SBP) method, with the application of analytics, could enable strategic, consequential, informed decision making, and 2) to determine how influential Kenyan decision makers could apply SBP with analytic tools and techniques to make strategic, consequential decisions regarding the implementation of a Cervical Self Sampling Program (CSSP) in both urban and rural settings. The theoretical paradigm for this study was action research; it was experiential, practical, and action oriented, and resulted in co-created knowledge that influenced study participants’ decision making. Action Africa Help International (AAHI) and Brock University collaborated with Local Decision Influencing Participants (LDIP’s) to develop innovative strategies on how to implement the CSSP. SBP tools, along with traditional approaches to data collection and analysis, were applied to collect, visualize and analyze predominately qualitative data. Outputs from the study included: a) a generic implementation scenario for a CSSP (along with scenarios unique to urban and rural settings), and b) 10 strategic directions and 22 supporting implementation strategies that address the variables of: 1) technical viability, 2) political support, 3) affordability, 4) logistical feasibility, 5) social acceptability, and 6) transformation/sustainability. In addition, study participants’ capacity to effectively engage in predictive/prescriptive strategic decision making was strengthened.

Cross sections of excavation required to make a ditch on the earth side of the railroad near Port Dalhousie

Cross sections of excavation required to make a ditch on the earth side of the railroad near Port Dalhousie. This is a 12 page booklet of hand- drawn charts and diagrams which is slightly stained. Text is not affected, Mar. 1860.

Letter to P.I. Price asking him to make out a cheque in favour of German and Pettit for looking after certain petitions in Willoughby and Bertie Townships and in Welland

Letter to P.I. Price asking him to make out a cheque in favour of German and Pettit for looking after certain petitions in Willoughby and Bertie Townships and in Welland. This is signed by H.H. Collier, March 5, 1906.

Bootstrap for panel data models with an application to the evaluation of public policies

Le but de cette thèse est d étendre la théorie du bootstrap aux modèles de données de panel. Les données de panel s obtiennent en observant plusieurs unités statistiques sur plusieurs périodes de temps. Leur double dimension individuelle et temporelle permet de contrôler l 'hétérogénéité non observable entre individus et entre les périodes de temps et donc de faire des études plus riches que les séries chronologiques ou les données en coupe instantanée. L 'avantage du bootstrap est de permettre d obtenir une inférence plus précise que celle avec la théorie asymptotique classique ou une inférence impossible en cas de paramètre de nuisance. La méthode consiste à tirer des échantillons aléatoires qui ressemblent le plus possible à l échantillon d analyse. L 'objet statitstique d intérêt est estimé sur chacun de ses échantillons aléatoires et on utilise l ensemble des valeurs estimées pour faire de l inférence. Il existe dans la littérature certaines application du bootstrap aux données de panels sans justi cation théorique rigoureuse ou sous de fortes hypothèses. Cette thèse propose une méthode de bootstrap plus appropriée aux données de panels. Les trois chapitres analysent sa validité et son application. Le premier chapitre postule un modèle simple avec un seul paramètre et s 'attaque aux propriétés théoriques de l estimateur de la moyenne. Nous montrons que le double rééchantillonnage que nous proposons et qui tient compte à la fois de la dimension individuelle et la dimension temporelle est valide avec ces modèles. Le rééchantillonnage seulement dans la dimension individuelle n est pas valide en présence d hétérogénéité temporelle. Le ré-échantillonnage dans la dimension temporelle n est pas valide en présence d'hétérogénéité individuelle. Le deuxième chapitre étend le précédent au modèle panel de régression. linéaire. Trois types de régresseurs sont considérés : les caractéristiques individuelles, les caractéristiques temporelles et les régresseurs qui évoluent dans le temps et par individu. En utilisant un modèle à erreurs composées doubles, l'estimateur des moindres carrés ordinaires et la méthode de bootstrap des résidus, on montre que le rééchantillonnage dans la seule dimension individuelle est valide pour l'inférence sur les coe¢ cients associés aux régresseurs qui changent uniquement par individu. Le rééchantillonnage dans la dimen- sion temporelle est valide seulement pour le sous vecteur des paramètres associés aux régresseurs qui évoluent uniquement dans le temps. Le double rééchantillonnage est quand à lui est valide pour faire de l inférence pour tout le vecteur des paramètres. Le troisième chapitre re-examine l exercice de l estimateur de différence en di¤érence de Bertrand, Duflo et Mullainathan (2004). Cet estimateur est couramment utilisé dans la littérature pour évaluer l impact de certaines poli- tiques publiques. L exercice empirique utilise des données de panel provenant du Current Population Survey sur le salaire des femmes dans les 50 états des Etats-Unis d Amérique de 1979 à 1999. Des variables de pseudo-interventions publiques au niveau des états sont générées et on s attend à ce que les tests arrivent à la conclusion qu il n y a pas d e¤et de ces politiques placebos sur le salaire des femmes. Bertrand, Du o et Mullainathan (2004) montre que la non-prise en compte de l hétérogénéité et de la dépendance temporelle entraîne d importantes distorsions de niveau de test lorsqu'on évalue l'impact de politiques publiques en utilisant des données de panel. Une des solutions préconisées est d utiliser la méthode de bootstrap. La méthode de double ré-échantillonnage développée dans cette thèse permet de corriger le problème de niveau de test et donc d'évaluer correctement l'impact des politiques publiques.

Root-induced increases in soil pH and nutrient availability to field-grown cereals and legumes on acid sandy soils of Sudano-Sahelian West Africa

A field experiment with millet (Pennisetum glaucum L.), sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench], cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L.) and groundnut (Arachnis hypogeae L.) was conducted on severely P-deficient acid sandy soils of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso to measure changes in pH and nutrient availability as affected by distance from the root surface and by mineral fertiliser application. Treatments included three rates of phosphorus (P) and four levels of nitrogen (N) application. Bulk, rhizosphere and rhizoplane soils were sampled at 35, 45 and 75 DAS in 1997 and at 55 and 65 DAS in 1998. Regardless of the cropping system and level of mineral fertiliser applied, soil pH consistently increased between 0.7 and two units from the bulk soil to the rhizoplane of millet. Similar pH gradients were observed in cowpea, but pH changes were much smaller in sorghum with a difference of only 0.3 units. Shifts in pH led to large increases in nutrient availability close to the roots. Compared with the bulk soil, available P in the rhizoplane was between 190 and 270% higher for P-Bray and between 360 and 600% higher for P-water. Exchangeable calcium (Ca) and magnesium (Mg) levels were also higher in the millet rhizoplane than in the bulk soil, whereas exchangeable aluminium (Al) levels decreased with increasing pH close to the root surface. The results suggest an important role of root-induced pH increases for crops to cope with acidity-induced nutrient deficiency and Al stress of soils in the Sudano-Sahelian zone of West Africa.

Probabilistic models to assist maintenance of multiple instruments

The paper discusses maintenance challenges of organisations with a huge number of devices and proposes the use of probabilistic models to assist monitoring and maintenance planning. The proposal assumes connectivity of instruments to report relevant features for monitoring. Also, the existence of enough historical registers with diagnosed breakdowns is required to make probabilistic models reliable and useful for predictive maintenance strategies based on them. Regular Markov models based on estimated failure and repair rates are proposed to calculate the availability of the instruments and Dynamic Bayesian Networks are proposed to model cause-effect relationships to trigger predictive maintenance services based on the influence between observed features and previously documented diagnostics

Part 1 - talk on using Creative Commons and opensource software to make Open Content (what is creative commons ?, what is open content ?)

This is the first part of a 2 part video from my talk in May 2008 on open source content creation.

Part 2 - talk on using Creative Commons and opensource software to make Open Content. (Making of Doljer)

This is the second part of a 2 part video from my talk in May 2008 on open source content creation. Here I am talking about the Making of Doljer

How to Make a Panopto Recording Offline

This 7-minute video shows you how to make a recording using Panopto in locations where you have no internet access, such as another institution or on a field trip. It also shows you how to upload the recording when you get back to your office.