Multi-target out-of-sequence data association

In data fusion systems, one often encounters measurements of past target locations and then wishes to deduce where the targets are currently located. Recent research on the processing of such out-of-sequence data has culminated in the development of a number of algorithms for solving the associated tracking problem. This paper reviews these different approaches in a common Bayesian framework and proposes an architecture that orthogonalises the data association and out-of-sequence problems such that any combination of solutions to these two problems can be used together. The emphasis is not on advocating one approach over another on the basis of computational expense, but rather on understanding the relationships between the algorithms so that any approximations made are explicit.

A multidisciplinary literature review of low and zero carbon technologies into new housing

The UK Government is committed to all new homes being zero-carbon from 2016. The use of low and zero carbon (LZC) technologies is recognised by housing developers as being a key part of the solution to deliver against this zero-carbon target. The paper takes as its starting point that the selection of new technologies by firms is not a phenomenon which takes place within a rigid sphere of technical rationality (for example, Rip and Kemp, 1998). Rather, technology forms and diffusion trajectories are driven and shaped by myriad socio-technical structures, interests and logics. A literature review is offered to contribute to a more critical and systemic foundation for understanding the socio-technical features of the selection of LZC technologies in new housing. The problem is investigated through a multidisciplinary lens consisting of two perspectives: technological and institutional. The synthesis of the perspectives crystallises the need to understand that the selection of LZC technologies by housing developers is not solely dependent on technical or economic efficiency, but on the emergent ‘fit’ between the intrinsic properties of the technologies, institutional logics and the interests and beliefs of various actors in the housing development process.

A low-order model investigation of the analysis of gravity waves in the ensemble Kalman filter.

The behavior of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is examined in the context of a model that exhibits a nonlinear chaotic (slow) vortical mode coupled to a linear (fast) gravity wave of a given amplitude and frequency. It is shown that accurate recovery of both modes is enhanced when covariances between fast and slow normal-mode variables (which reflect the slaving relations inherent in balanced dynamics) are modeled correctly. More ensemble members are needed to recover the fast, linear gravity wave than the slow, vortical motion. Although the EnKF tends to diverge in the analysis of the gravity wave, the filter divergence is stable and does not lead to a great loss of accuracy. Consequently, provided the ensemble is large enough and observations are made that reflect both time scales, the EnKF is able to recover both time scales more accurately than optimal interpolation (OI), which uses a static error covariance matrix. For OI it is also found to be problematic to observe the state at a frequency that is a subharmonic of the gravity wave frequency, a problem that is in part overcome by the EnKF.However, error in themodeled gravity wave parameters can be detrimental to the performance of the EnKF and remove its implied advantages, suggesting that a modified algorithm or a method for accounting for model error is needed.

The persistent challenge of encouraging public participation in the low-carbon transition

In order to address the growing urgency of issues around environmental and resource limits, there is a clear need to develop policies that promote changes in behavior and the ways in which society both views and consumes goods and services. However, there is an argument to suggest that, in order to develop effective policies in this area, we need to move beyond a narrow understanding of ‘how individuals behave’ in order to cultivate a more nuanced approach that encompasses behavioral influences in different societies, contexts and settings. In this opinion article we therefore draw on a range of our own recent comparative research studies in order to provide fresh insights into the continued problem of how to engage people individually and collectively in establishing more sustainable, low-carbon societies.

Multiwavelength Observations of EXO 0748-676. II. Emission-Line Behavior

We present optical and ultraviolet spectra, light curves, and Doppler tomograms of the low-mass X-ray binary EXO 0748-676. Using an extensive set of 15 emission-line tomograms, we show that, along with the usual emission from the stream and ``hot spot,'' there is extended nonaxisymmetric emission from the disk rim. Some of the emission and Hα and Hβ absorption features lend weight to the hypothesis that part of the stream overflows the disk rim and forms a two phase medium. The data are consistent with a 1.35 Msolar neutron star with a main-sequence companion and hence a mass ratio q~0.34.

Improving the evaluation of hydrological multi-model forecast performance in the Upper Danube Catchment

Medium range flood forecasting activities, driven by various meteorological forecasts ranging from high resolution deterministic forecasts to low spatial resolution ensemble prediction systems, share a major challenge in the appropriateness and design of performance measures. In this paper possible limitations of some traditional hydrological and meteorological prediction quality and verification measures are identified. Some simple modifications are applied in order to circumvent the problem of the autocorrelation dominating river discharge time-series and in order to create a benchmark model enabling the decision makers to evaluate the forecast quality and the model quality. Although the performance period is quite short the advantage of a simple cost-loss function as a measure of forecast quality can be demonstrated.

Analytical and numerical solutions describing the inward solidification of a binary melt

We present a mathematical model describing the inward solidification of a slab, a circular cylinder and a sphere of binary melt kept below its equilibrium freezing temperature. The thermal and physical properties of the melt and solid are assumed to be identical. An asymptotic method, valid in the limit of large Stefan number is used to decompose the moving boundary problem for a pure substance into a hierarchy of fixed-domain diffusion problems. Approximate, analytical solutions are derived for the inward solidification of a slab and a sphere of a binary melt which are compared with numerical solutions of the unapproximated system. The solutions are found to agree within the appropriate asymptotic regime of large Stefan number and small time. Numerical solutions are used to demonstrate the dependence of the solidification process upon the level of impurity and other parameters. We conclude with a discussion of the solutions obtained, their stability and possible extensions and refinements of our study.

Effect of low extracellular pH on NF-κB activation in macrophages

Objective: Many diseases, including atherosclerosis, involve chronic inflammation. The master transcription factor for inflammation is NF-κB. Inflammatory sites have a low extracellular pH. Our objective was to demonstrate the effect of pH on NF-κB activation and cytokine secretion. Methods: Mouse J774 macrophages or human THP-1 or monocyte-derived macrophages were incubated at pH 7.0–7.4 and inflammatory cytokine secretion and NF-κB activity were measured. Results: A pH of 7.0 greatly decreased pro-inflammatory cytokine secretion (TNF or IL-6) by J774 macrophages, but not THP-1 or human monocyte-derived macrophages. Upon stimulation of mouse macrophages, the levels of IκBα, which inhibits NF-κB, fell but low pH prevented its later increase, which normally restores the baseline activity of NF-κB, even though the levels of mRNA for IκBα were increased. pH 7.0 greatly increased and prolonged NF-κB binding to its consensus promoter sequence, especially the anti-inflammatory p50:p50 homodimers. Human p50 was overexpressed using adenovirus in THP-1 macrophages and monocyte-derived macrophages to see if it would confer pH sensitivity to NF-κB activity in human cells. Overexpression of p50 increased p50:p50 DNA-binding and in THP-1 macrophages inhibited considerably TNF and IL-6 secretion, but there was still no effect of pH on p50:p50 DNA binding or cytokine secretion. Conclusion: A modest decrease in pH can sometimes have marked effects on NF-κB activation and cytokine secretion and might be one reason to explain why mice normally develop less atherosclerosis than do humans.

Cognitive-behavior therapy for low self-esteem: a case example

Low self-esteem is a common, disabling, and distressing problem that has been shown to be involved in the etiology and maintenance of range of Axis I disorders. Hence, it is a priority to develop effective treatments for low self-esteem. A cognitive-behavioral conceptualization of low self-esteem has been proposed and a cognitive-behavioral treatment (CBT) program described (Fennell, 1997, 1999). As yet there has been no systematic evaluation of this treatment with routine clinical populations. The current case report describes the assessment, formulation, and treatment of a patient with low self-esteem, depression, and anxiety symptoms. At the end of treatment (12 sessions over 6 months), and at 1-year follow-up, the treatment showed large effect sizes on measures of depression, anxiety, and self-esteem. The patient no longer met diagnostic criteria for any psychiatric disorder, and showed reliable and clinically significant change on all measures. As far as we are aware, there are no other published case studies of CBT for low self-esteem that report pre- and posttreatment evaluations, or follow-up data. Hence, this case provides an initial contribution to the evidence base for the efficacy of CBT for low self-esteem. However, further research is needed to confirm the efficacy of CBT for low self-esteem and to compare its efficacy and effectiveness to alternative treatments, including diagnosis-specific CBT protocols.

Meteorological factors controlling low-level continental pollutant outflow across a coast

Coastal outflow describes the horizontal advection of pollutants from the continental boundary layer across a coastline into a layer above the marine boundary layer. This process can ventilate polluted continental boundary layers and thus regulate air quality in highly populated coastal regions. This paper investigates the factors controlling coastal outflow and quantifies its importance as a ventilation mechanism. Tracers in the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) are used to examine the magnitude and variability of coastal outflow over the eastern United States for a 4 week period during summer 2004. Over the 4 week period, ventilation of tracer from the continental boundary layer via coastal outflow occurs with the same magnitude as vertical ventilation via convection and advection. The relative importance of tracer decay rate, cross-coastal advection rate, and a parameter based on the relative continental and marine boundary layer heights, on coastal outflow is assessed by reducing the problem to a time-dependent box-model. The ratio of the advection rate and decay rate is a dimensionless parameter which determines whether tracers are long-lived or short-lived. Long- and short-lived tracers exhibit different behaviours with respect to coastal outflow. For short-lived tracers, increasing the advection rate increases the diurnally averaged magnitude of coastal outflow, but has the opposite effect for very long-lived tracers. Short-lived tracers exhibit large diurnal variability in coastal outflow but long-lived tracers do not. By combining the MetUM and box-model simulations a landwidth is determined which represents the distance inland over which emissions contribute significantly to coastal outflow. A landwidth of between 100 and 400 km is found to be representative for a tracer with a lifetime of 24 h.

The full infinite dimensional moment problem on semi-algebraic sets of generalized functions

We consider a generic basic semi-algebraic subset S of the space of generalized functions, that is a set given by (not necessarily countably many) polynomial constraints. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for an infinite sequence of generalized functions to be realizable on S, namely to be the moment sequence of a finite measure concentrated on S. Our approach combines the classical results about the moment problem on nuclear spaces with the techniques recently developed to treat the moment problem on basic semi-algebraic sets of Rd. In this way, we determine realizability conditions that can be more easily verified than the well-known Haviland type conditions. Our result completely characterizes the support of the realizing measure in terms of its moments. As concrete examples of semi-algebraic sets of generalized functions, we consider the set of all Radon measures and the set of all the measures having bounded Radon–Nikodym density w.r.t. the Lebesgue measure.

Location and characteristics of the reconnection X line deduced from low-altitude satellite and ground-based observations: 1. Theory

A method for estimating both the Alfvén speed and the field-aligned flow of the magnetosheath at the magnetopause reconnection site is presented. The method employs low-altitude cusp ion observations and requires the identification of a feature in the cusp ion spectra near the low-energy cutoff which will often be present for a low-latitude dayside reconnection site. The appearance of these features in data of limited temporal, energy, and pitch angle resolution is illustrated by using model calculations of cusp ion distribution functions. These are based on the theory of ion acceleration at the dayside magnetopause and allow for the effects on the spectrum of flight times of ions precipitating down newly opened field lines. In addition, the variation of the reconnection rate can be evaluated, and comparison with ground-based observations of the corresponding sequence of transient events allows the field-aligned distance from the ionosphere to the reconnection site to be estimated.

Auroral bright spot sequence near 1400 MLT: Coordinated optical and ion drift observations

Optical observations of a dayside auroral brightening sequence, by means of all-sky TV cameras and meridian scanning photometers, have been combined with EISCAT ion drift observations within the same invariant latitude-MLT sector. The observations were made during a January 1989 campaign by utilizing the high F region ion densities during the maximum phase of the solar cycle. The characteristic intermittent optical events, covering ∼300 km in east-west extent, move eastward (antisunward) along the poleward boundary of the persistent background aurora at velocities of ∼1.5 km s−1 and are associated with ion flows which swing from eastward to westward, with a subsequent return to eastward, during the interval of a few minutes when there is enhanced auroral emission within the radar field of view. The breakup of discrete auroral forms occurs at the reversal (negative potential) that forms between eastward plasma flow, maximizing near the persistent arc poleward boundary, and strong transient westward flow to the south. The reported events, covering a 35 min interval around 1400 MLT, are embedded within a longer period of similar auroral activity between 0830 (1200 MLT) and 1300 UT (1600 MLT). These observations are discussed in relation to recent models of boundary layer plasma dynamics and the associated magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling. The ionospheric events may correspond to large-scale wave like motions of the low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL)/plasma sheet (PS) boundary. On the basis of this interpretation the observed spot size, speed and repetition period (∼10 min) give a wavelength (the distance between spots) of ∼900 km in the present case. The events can also be explained as ionospheric signatures of newly opened flux tubes associated with reconnection bursts at the magnetopause near 1400 MLT. We also discuss these data in relation to random, patchy reconnection (as has recently been invoked to explain the presence of the sheathlike plasma on closed field lines in the LLBL). In view of the lack of IMF data, and the existing uncertainty on the location of the open-closed field line boundary relative to the optical events, an unambiguous discrimination between the different alternatives is not easily obtained.

The chaotic frequency hopping signals for MIMO radar

In multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) radar systems, the transmitters emit orthogonal waveforms to increase the spatial resolution. New frequency hopping (FH) codes based on chaotic sequences are proposed. The chaotic sequences have the characteristics of good encryption, anti-jamming properties and anti-intercept capabilities. The main idea of chaotic FH is based on queuing theory. According to the sensitivity to initial condition, these sequences can achieve good Hamming auto-correlation while also preserving good average correlation. Simulation results show that the proposed FH signals can achieve lower autocorrelation side lobe level and peak cross-correlation level with the increasing of iterations. Compared to the LFM signals, this sequence has higher range-doppler resolution.

Dating the Thera (Santorin) eruption: evidence versus poor scholarship, and the end of the low chronology

The date of the Late Bronze Age Minoan eruption of the Thera volcano has provoked much debate among archaeologists, not least in a recent issue of Antiquity (‘Bronze Age catastrophe and modern controversy: dating the Santorini eruption’, March 2014). Here, the authors respond to those recent contributions, citing evidence that closes the gap between the conclusions offered by previous typological, stratigraphic and radiometric dating techniques. They reject the need to choose between alternative approaches to the problem and make a case for the synchronisation of eastern Mediterranean and Egyptian chronologies with agreement on a ‘high’ date in the late seventeenth century BC for the Thera eruption.