Risk analysis of tractor rollover in the normal operation in field

Tractor rollover represent a primary cause of death or serious injury in agriculture and despite the mandatory Roll-Over Protective Structures (ROPS), that reduced the number of injuries, tractor accidents are still of great concern. Because of their versatility and wide use many studies on safety are concerned with the stability of tractors, but they often prefer controlled tests or laboratory tests. The evaluation of tractors working in field, instead, is a very complex issue because the rollover could be influenced by the interaction among operator, tractor and environment. Recent studies are oriented towards the evaluation of the actual working conditions developing prototypes for driver assistance and data acquisition. Currently these devices are produced and sold by manufacturers. A warning device was assessed in this study with the aim to evaluate its performance and to collect data on different variables influencing the dynamics of tractors in field by monitoring continuously the working conditions of tractors operating at the experimental farm of the Bologna University. The device consists of accelerometers, gyroscope, GSM/GPRS, GPS for geo-referencing and a transceiver for the automatic recognition of tractor-connected equipment. A microprocessor processes data and provides information, through a dedicated algorithm requiring data on the geometry of the tested tractor, on the level of risk for the operator in terms of probable loss of stability and suggests corrective measures to reduce the potential instability of the tractor.

Randomised controlled trials of homeopathy in hyperactive children: treatment procedure leads to an unconventional study design. Experience with open-label homeopathic treatment preceding the Swiss ADHD placebo controlled, randomised, double-blind, cross-over trial

BACKGROUND: Treatment of patients with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) with homeopathy is difficult. The Swiss randomised, placebo controlled, cross-over trial in ADHD patients (Swiss ADHD trial) was designed with an open-label screening phase prior to the randomised controlled phase. During the screening phase, the response of each child to successive homeopathic medications was observed until the optimal medication was identified. Only children who reached a predefined level of improvement participated in the randomised, cross-over phase. Although the randomised phase revealed a significant beneficial effect of homeopathy, the cross-over caused a strong carryover effect diminishing the apparent difference between placebo and verum treatment. METHODS: This retrospective analysis explores the screening phase data with respect to the risk of failure to demonstrate a specific effect of a randomised controlled trial (RCT) with randomisation at the start of the treatment. RESULTS: During the screening phase, 84% (70/83) of the children responded to treatment and reached eligibility for the randomised trial after a median time of 5 months (range 1-18), with a median of 3 different medications (range 1-9). Thirteen children (16%) did not reach eligibility. Five months after treatment start, the difference in Conners Global Index (CGI) rating between responders and non-responders became highly significant (p = 0.0006). Improvement in CGI was much greater following the identification of the optimal medication than in the preceding suboptimal treatment period (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Because of the necessity of identifying an optimal medication before response to treatment can be expected, randomisation at the start of treatment in an RCT of homeopathy in ADHD children has a high risk of failure to demonstrate a specific treatment effect, if the observation time is shorter than 12 months.

Watershed classification in the Lower Mekong Basin: Rapid economic growth - a source of increasing potential for conflict over resource use

In the Lower Mekon Basin the extraordinary pace of economic development and growth contradicts with environmental protection. On base of the Watershed Classification Project (WSCP) and the inclusion of a DTM for the entire LMB the potential degradation risk was derived for each land unit. The risks were grouped into five classes, where classes one and two are considered critical with regard to soil erosion when the land is cleared of natural resources. For practical use the database has an enormous potential for further spatial analysis in combination with other datasets, as for example the NCCR North-South uses the WSCP within two research projects.

Abdominal aortic calcification and risk of fracture among older women - The SOF study

Data concerning the link between severity of abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) and fracture risk in postmenopausal women are discordant. This association may vary by skeletal site and duration of follow-up. Our aim was to assess the association between the AAC severity and fracture risk in older women over the short- and long term. This is a case-cohort study nested in a large multicenter prospective cohort study. The association between AAC and fracture was assessed using Odds Ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) for vertebral fractures and using Hazard Risks (HR) and 95%CI for non-vertebral and hip fractures. AAC severity was evaluated from lateral spine radiographs using Kauppila's semiquantitative score. Severe AAC (AAC score 5+) was associated with higher risk of vertebral fracture during 4 years of follow-up, after adjustment for confounders (age, BMI, walking, smoking, hip bone mineral density, prevalent vertebral fracture, systolic blood pressure, hormone replacement therapy) (OR=2.31, 95%CI: 1.24-4.30, p<0.01). In a similar model, severe AAC was associated with an increase in the hip fracture risk (HR=2.88, 95%CI: 1.00-8.36, p=0.05). AAC was not associated with the risk of any non-vertebral fracture. AAC was not associated with the fracture risk after 15 years of follow-up. In elderly women, severe AAC is associated with higher short-term risk of vertebral and hip fractures, but not with the long-term risk of these fractures. There is no association between AAC and risk of non-vertebral-non-hip fracture in older women. Our findings lend further support to the hypothesis that AAC and skeletal fragility are related.

Dengue transmission risk maps of the continental United States

Dengue fever is a strictly human and non-human primate disease characterized by a high fever, thrombocytopenia, retro-orbital pain, and severe joint and muscle pain. Over 40% of the world population is at risk. Recent re-emergence of dengue outbreaks in Texas and Florida following the re-introduction of competent Aedes mosquito vectors in the United States have raised growing concerns about the potential for increased occurrences of dengue fever outbreaks throughout the southern United States. Current deficiencies in vector control, active surveillance and awareness among medical practitioners may contribute to a delay in recognizing and controlling a dengue virus outbreak. Previous studies have shown links between low-income census tracts, high population density, and dengue fever within the United States. Areas of low-income and high population density that correlate with the distribution of Aedes mosquitoes result in higher potential for outbreaks. In this retrospective ecologic study, nine maps were generated to model U.S. census tracts’ potential to sustain dengue virus transmission if the virus was introduced into the area. Variables in the model included presence of a competent vector in the county and census tract percent poverty and population density. Thirty states, 1,188 counties, and 34,705 census tracts were included in the analysis. Among counties with Aedes mosquito infestation, the census tracts were ranked high, medium, and low risk potential for sustained transmission of the virus. High risk census tracts were identified as areas having the vector, ≥20% poverty, and ≥500 persons per square mile. Census tracts with either ≥20% poverty or ≥500 persons per square mile and have the vector present are considered moderate risk. Census tracts that have the vector present but have <20% poverty and <500 persons per square mile are considered low risk. Furthermore, counties were characterized as moderate risk if 50% or more of the census tracts in that county were rated high or moderate risk, and high risk if 25% or greater were rated high risk. Extreme risk counties, which were primarily concentrated in Texas and Mississippi, were considered having 50% or greater of the census tracts ranked as high risk. Mapping of geographic areas with potential to sustain dengue virus transmission will support surveillance efforts and assist medical personnel in recognizing potential cases. ^

The ICC Debate and the EU-U.S. Struggle for Influence: The Case of the Balkan-6. ACES Working Paper No. 11, October 2007

The objectives of the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) for the countries of the Balkan region are generally assumed to be complementary. They both stress and condition their support and assistance on the progress that these countries make with regards to economic modernization, build-up of social institutions, and respect for international law. However, this rhetoric doesn't always match the facts on the ground. Often, instead of dealing with a cohesive set of policy recommendations, the countries in the region are faced with contradictory alternatives and zero-sum choices. The debate over the development of the International Criminal Court (ICC) was such a case. It centered on whether the countries in the region should exempt US personnel from the jurisdiction of the Court while in the country and thus rendering them immune from prosecution for any crimes committed for which the US courts were not willing or able to take any action. The final outcome was mixed. Three of the countries - Croatia, Serbia (and Montenegro), and Slovenia - decided not to give in to US pressure, while the remaining three - Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Macedonia - ignored the pleas and threats of the EU and of the various international non-governmental organizations and decided to sign Bilateral Immunity Agreements (BIAs) with the US. How can one explain such divergent outcomes? I argue that the credibility of actors involved played an important role in determining whether threats coming from the US or the EU were more credible, thus tipping the scales in favor of signing BIAs with the US. However, the issue of threat credibility serves only to narrow down the choices of actors. Further determination of the outcome necessitates a look at the nature of the security context in which these countries exist and operate.

High-Risk Merkel Cell Carcinoma of the Skin Treated With Synchronous Carboplatin/Etoposide and Radiation: A Trans-Tasman Radiation Oncology Group Study-TROG 96:07

Purpose: The effectiveness of synchronous carboplatin, etoposide, and radiation therapy was prospectively assessed in a group of patients with high-risk Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) of the skin. Patients and Methods: Patients were eligible if they had disease localized to the primary site and nodes, and were required to have at least one of the following high risk features: recurrence after initial therapy, involved nodes, primary tumor size greater than 1 cm, gross residual disease after surgery, or occult primary with nodes. Radiation was delivered to the primary site and nodes to a dose of 50 Gy in 25 fractions over 5 weeks and synchronous carboplatin (area under the curve, 4.5) and intravenous etoposide 80 mg/m(2) days 1 to 3 was given in weeks 1, 4, 7, and 10. The median age of the group was 67 (range, 43-86) years, and there were 39 males and 14 females. Involved nodes (stage II) were present in 33 cases (62%). The sites involved were head and neck (22 patients), occult primary (13 patients), upper limb (eight patients), lower limb (eight patients), and trunk (two patients). Results: Fifty-three patients were entered between 1996 and 2001. The median potential follow-up was 48 months. There were no treatment related deaths. The 3-year overall survival, locoregional control, and distant control were 76%, 75%, and 76%, respectively. Tumor site and the presence of nodes were factors that were predictive for local control and survival. Multivariate analysis indicated that the major factor influencing survival was the presence of nodes; however, this was not a significant factor in locoregional control. Conclusion: High levels of locoregional control and survival have been achieved with the addition of chemotherapy to radiation treatment for high-risk MCC of the skin. The role of chemoradiotherapy for high-risk MCC warrants further investigation. (C) 2003 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Does chemotherapy improve survival in high-risk Stage I and II Merkel cell carcinoma of the skin?

Purpose: The effectiveness of synchronous carboplatin, etoposide, and radiation therapy in improving survival was evaluated by comparison of a matched set of historic control subjects with patients treated in a prospective Phase II study that used synchronous chemotherapy and radiation and adjuvant chemotherapy. Patients and Methods: Patients were included in the analysis if they had disease localized to the primary site and nodes, and they were required to have at least one of the following high-risk features: recurrence after initial therapy, involved nodes, primary size greater than 1 cm, or gross residual disease after surgery. All patients who received chemotherapy were treated in a standardized fashion as part of a Phase II study (Trans-Tasman Radiation Oncology Group TROG 96:07) from 1997 to 2001. Radiation was delivered to the primary site and nodes to a dose of 50 Gy in 25 fractions over 5 weeks, and synchronous carboplatin (AUC 4.5) and etoposide, 80 mg/m(2) i.v. on Days 1 to 3, were given in Weeks 1, 4, 7, and 10. The historic group represents a single institution's experience from 1988 to 1996 and was treated with surgery and radiation alone, and patients were included if they fulfilled the eligibility criteria of TROG 96:07. Patients with occult cutaneous disease were not included for the purpose of this analysis. Because of imbalances in the prognostic variables between the two treatment groups, comparisons were made by application of Cox's proportional hazard modeling. Overall survival, disease-specific survival, locoregional control, and distant control were used as endpoints for the study. Results: Of the 102 patients who had high-risk Stage I and II disease, 40 were treated with chemotherapy (TROG 96:07) and 62 were treated without chemotherapy (historic control subjects). When Cox's proportional hazards modeling was applied, the only significant factors for overall survival were recurrent disease, age, and the presence of residual disease. For disease-specific survival, recurrent disease was the only significant factor. Primary site on the lower limb had an adverse effect on locoregional control. For distant control, the only significant factor was residual disease. Conclusions: The multivariate analysis suggests chemotherapy has no effect on survival, but because of the wide confidence limits, a chemotherapy effect cannot be excluded. A study of this size is inadequately powered to detect small improvements in survival, and a larger randomized study remains the only way to truly confirm whether chemotherapy improves the results in high-risk MCC. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc.

Self-reported risk perception, mood and risk behaviour across the human menstrual cycle

Normally ovulating women exhibit a decline in risk behaviours that may lead to sexual assault during the fertile phase of the menstrual cycle, whereas women using the Pill do not. The current study tests two explanatory models: the mood and fertility models. Self-reported risk and non-risk behaviours, mood, and risk perception in sexual assault and physical risk domains were assessed by testing fiftyone women at menstruation and during their fertile period. Based on the decline in risk behaviours shown in past research, the fertility model predicts that normally ovulating women will display greater risk perception during the fertile phase of their cycle. The mood model predicts that at menstruation, when negative mood is highest, risk perception will be increased and risk behaviours correspondingly reduced. Risk behaviours did not vary over the cycle or between groups. Overall, results support the mood model. Negative mood was greater at menstruation and positive mood during the fertile period for both groups, rational risk perception was correspondingly greater at menstruation. The fertility model was not supported as risk perception ratings did not vary in the expected direction and ratings were not specific to the sexual assault domain.

Use of structural equation modeling to examine the association between breast cancer risk perception and repeat screening mammography among United States women

Breast cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death in United States women, estimated to be diagnosed in 1 out of 8 women in their lifetime. Screening mammography detects breast cancer in its pre-clinical stages when treatment strategies have the greatest chance of success, and is currently the only population-wide prevention method proven to reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with breast cancer. Research has shown that the majority of women are not screened annually, with estimates ranging front 6% - 30% of eligible women receiving all available annual mammograms over a 5-year or greater time frame. Health behavior theorists believe that perception of risk/susceptibility to a disease influences preventive health behavior, in this case, screening mammography The purpose of this dissertation is to examine the association between breast cancer risk perception and repeat screening mammography using a structural equation modeling (SEM) framework. A series of SEM multivariate regressions were conducted using self-reported, nationally representative data from the 2005 National Health Interview Survey. Interaction contrasts were tested to measure the potential moderating effects of variables which have been shown to be predictive of mammography use (physician recommendation, economic barriers, structural barriers, race/ethnicity) on the association between breast cancer risk perception and repeat mammography, while controlling for the covariates of age, income, region, nativity, and educational level. Of the variables tested for moderation, results of the SEM analyses identify physician recommendation as the only moderator of the relationship between risk perception and repeat mammography, thus the potentially most effective point of intervention to increase mammography screening, and decrease the morbidity and mortality associated with breast cancer. These findings expand the role of the physician from recommendation to one of attenuating the effect of risk perception and increasing repeat screening. The long range application of the research is the use of the SEM methodology to identify specific points of intervention most likely to increase preventive behavior in population-wide research, allowing for the most effective use of intervention funds.^

An examination of the effects of a summer book-reading program on the language and early literacy outcomes of toddlers from high risk environments

The current study examined the impact of an early summer literacy program and the mediating effects of the home literacy environment on the language and literacy outcomes of a group of children at-risk for long-term developmental and academic delays. Participating children (n=54) were exposed to an intensive book-reading intervention each summer (June through mid August) over a 3-year period. The current study implemented an ex post facto, quasi-experimental design. This nonequivalent group design involved a pretest and posttest over three time points for a non-randomized treatment group and a matched non-treatment comparison group. Results indicated that literacy scores did improve for the children over the 3-year period; however, language scores did not experience the same rate of change over time. Receptive language was significantly impacted by attendance, and race/ethnicity. Expressive language was impacted significantly by gestational age and attendance. Results also indicated that language outcomes for young children who are exposed to a literacy program were higher than those who did not participate; however, only receptive language yielded significance at the p<.05 level. These study results also found that activities in the home that support literacy and learning do indeed impact language and literacy outcomes for these children, specifically, the age at which a child is read to, the number of books in the home, a child’s enjoyment of reading, and whether a child looks at books on his or her own impact language scores. This study concluded that at-risk young children do benefit from center-based literacy intervention. This literacy experience, however, is also driven by the children's home environment, their attendance to the program, whether they were premature or not and the type of caregiver.

The Abundance and Behavioral Ecology of Cape Cod Gray Seals Under Predation Risk From White Sharks

The ultimate goal of wildlife recovery is abundance growth of a species, though it must also involve the reestablishment of the species’ ecological role within ecosystems frequently modified by humans. Reestablishment and subsequent recovery may depend on the species’ degree of adaptive behavior as well as the duration of their functional absence and the extent of ecosystem alteration. In cases of long extirpations or extensive alteration, successful reestablishment may entail adjusting foraging behavior, targeting new prey species, and encountering unfamiliar predatory or competitive regimes. Recovering species must also increasingly tolerate heightened anthropogenic presence, particularly within densely inhabited coastal zones. In recent decades, gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) recovered from exploitation, depletion, and partial extirpation in the Northwest Atlantic. On Cape Cod, MA, USA, gray seals have reestablished growing breeding colonies and seasonally interact with migratory white sharks (Carcarodon carcharias). Though well-studied in portions of their range due to concerns over piscivorous impacts on valuable groundfish, there are broad knowledge gaps regarding their ecological role to US marine ecosystems. Furthermore, there are few studies that explicitly analyze gray seal behavior under direct risk of documented shark predation.

In this dissertation, I apply a behavioral and movement ecology approach to telemetry data to understand gray seal abundance and activity patterns along the coast of Cape Cod. This coastal focus complements extensive research documenting and describing offshore movement and foraging behavior and allows me to address questions about movement decisions and risk allocation. Using beach counts of seals visible in satellite imagery, I estimate the total regional abundance of gray seals using correction factors from haul out behavior and demonstrate a sizeable prey base of gray seals locally. Analyzing intra-annual space use patterns, I document small, concentrated home ranges utilizing nearshore habitats that rapidly expand with shifting activity budgets to target disperse offshore habitats following seasonal declines in white sharks. During the season of dense shark presence, seals conducted abbreviated nocturnal foraging trips structured temporally around divergent use of crepuscular periods. The timing of coastal behavior with different levels of twilight indicate risk allocation patterns with diel cycles of empirical white shark activity. The emergence of risk allocation to explain unique behavioral and spatial patterns observed in these gray seals points to the importance of the restored predator-prey dynamic in gray seal behavior along Cape Cod.

The Affordable Care Act and the Transformation of US Health Care

The neoliberal period was accompanied by a momentous transformation within the US health care system.  As the result of a number of political and historical dynamics, the healthcare law signed by President Barack Obama in 2010 ‑the Affordable Care Act (ACA)‑ drew less on universal models from abroad than it did on earlier conservative healthcare reform proposals. This was in part the result of the influence of powerful corporate healthcare interests. While the ACA expands healthcare coverage, it does so incompletely and unevenly, with persistent uninsurance and disparities in access based on insurance status. Additionally, the law accommodates an overall shift towards a consumerist model of care characterized by high cost sharing at time of use. Finally, the law encourages the further consolidation of the healthcare sector, for instance into units named “Accountable Care Organizations” that closely resemble the health maintenance organizations favored by managed care advocates. The overall effect has been to maintain a fragmented system that is neither equitable nor efficient. A single payer universal system would, in contrast, help transform healthcare into a social right.

Older Adult Injury Risk Assessment in the Driving and Occupational Environments

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF THE ANTERIOR CRUCIATE LIGAMENT INJURY-RISK-ESTIMATION QUIZ (ACL-IQ)

Over 2 million Anterior Cruciate Ligament (ACL) injuries occur annually worldwide resulting in considerable economic and health burdens (e.g., suffering, surgery, loss of function, risk for re-injury, and osteoarthritis). Current screening methods are effective but they generally rely on expensive and time-consuming biomechanical movement analysis, and thus are impractical solutions. In this dissertation, I report on a series of studies that begins to investigate one potentially efficient alternative to biomechanical screening, namely skilled observational risk assessment (e.g., having experts estimate risk based on observations of athletes movements). Specifically, in Study 1 I discovered that ACL injury risk can be accurately and reliably estimated with nearly instantaneous visual inspection when observed by skilled and knowledgeable professionals. Modern psychometric optimization techniques were then used to develop a robust and efficient 5-item test of ACL injury risk prediction skill—i.e., the ACL Injury-Risk-Estimation Quiz or ACL-IQ. Study 2 cross-validated the results from Study 1 in a larger representative sample of both skilled (Exercise Science/Sports Medicine) and un-skilled (General Population) groups. In accord with research on human expertise, quantitative structural and process modeling of risk estimation indicated that superior performance was largely mediated by specific strategies and skills (e.g., ignoring irrelevant information), independent of domain general cognitive abilities (e.g., metal rotation, general decision skill). These cognitive models suggest that ACL-IQ is a trainable skill, providing a foundation for future research and applications in training, decision support, and ultimately clinical screening investigations. Overall, I present the first evidence that observational ACL injury risk prediction is possible including a robust technology for fast, accurate and reliable measurement—i.e., the ACL-IQ. Discussion focuses on applications and outreach including a web platform that was developed to house the test, provide a repository for further data collection, and increase public and professional awareness and outreach (www.ACL-IQ.org). Future directions and general applications of the skilled movement analysis approach are also discussed.