Hybrid approaches to estimating freeway travel times using point traffic detector data

The accurate and reliable estimation of travel time based on point detector data is needed to support Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) applications. It has been found that the quality of travel time estimation is a function of the method used in the estimation and varies for different traffic conditions. In this study, two hybrid on-line travel time estimation models, and their corresponding off-line methods, were developed to achieve better estimation performance under various traffic conditions, including recurrent congestion and incidents. The first model combines the Mid-Point method, which is a speed-based method, with a traffic flow-based method. The second model integrates two speed-based methods: the Mid-Point method and the Minimum Speed method. In both models, the switch between travel time estimation methods is based on the congestion level and queue status automatically identified by clustering analysis. During incident conditions with rapidly changing queue lengths, shock wave analysis-based refinements are applied for on-line estimation to capture the fast queue propagation and recovery. Travel time estimates obtained from existing speed-based methods, traffic flow-based methods, and the models developed were tested using both simulation and real-world data. The results indicate that all tested methods performed at an acceptable level during periods of low congestion. However, their performances vary with an increase in congestion. Comparisons with other estimation methods also show that the developed hybrid models perform well in all cases. Further comparisons between the on-line and off-line travel time estimation methods reveal that off-line methods perform significantly better only during fast-changing congested conditions, such as during incidents. The impacts of major influential factors on the performance of travel time estimation, including data preprocessing procedures, detector errors, detector spacing, frequency of travel time updates to traveler information devices, travel time link length, and posted travel time range, were investigated in this study. The results show that these factors have more significant impacts on the estimation accuracy and reliability under congested conditions than during uncongested conditions. For the incident conditions, the estimation quality improves with the use of a short rolling period for data smoothing, more accurate detector data, and frequent travel time updates.

A tidal creek water budget: Estimation of groundwater discharge and overland flow using hydrologic modeling in the Southern Everglades

Taylor Slough is one of the natural freshwater contributors to Florida Bay through a network of microtidal creeks crossing the Everglades Mangrove Ecotone Region (EMER). The EMER ecological function is critical since it mediates freshwater and nutrient inputs and controls the water quality in Eastern Florida Bay. Furthermore, this region is vulnerable to changing hydrodynamics and nutrient loadings as a result of upstream freshwater management practices proposed by the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Program (CERP), currently the largest wetland restoration project in the USA. Despite the hydrological importance of Taylor Slough in the water budget of Florida Bay, there are no fine scale (∼1 km2) hydrodynamic models of this system that can be utilized as a tool to evaluate potential changes in water flow, salinity, and water quality. Taylor River is one of the major creeks draining Taylor Slough freshwater into Florida Bay. We performed a water budget analysis for the Taylor River area, based on long-term hydrologic data (1999–2007) and supplemented by hydrodynamic modeling using a MIKE FLOOD (DHI,http://dhigroup.com/) model to evaluate groundwater and overland water discharges. The seasonal hydrologic characteristics are very distinctive (average Taylor River wet vs. dry season outflow was 6 to 1 during 1999–2006) with a pronounced interannual variability of flow. The water budget shows a net dominance of through flow in the tidal mixing zone, while local precipitation and evapotranspiration play only a secondary role, at least in the wet season. During the dry season, the tidal flood reaches the upstream boundary of the study area during approximately 80 days per year on average. The groundwater field measurements indicate a mostly upwards-oriented leakage, which possibly equals the evapotranspiration term. The model results suggest a high importance of groundwater contribution to the water salinity in the EMER. The model performance is satisfactory during the dry season where surface flow in the area is confined to the Taylor River channel. The model also provided guidance on the importance of capturing the overland flow component, which enters the area as sheet flow during the rainy season. Overall, the modeling approach is suitable to reach better understanding of the water budget in the mangrove region. However, more detailed field data is needed to ascertain model predictions by further calibrating overland flow parameters.

Historic primary producer communities linked to water quality and hydrologic changes in the northern Everglades

The northern Everglades Water Conservation Areas have experienced recent ecological shifts in primary producer community structure involving marl periphyton mats and dense Typha-dominated macrophyte stands. Multiple investigations have identified phosphorus (P) as a driver of primary producer community structure, but effects of water impoundment beginning in the 1950s and changes in water hardness [e.g., (CaCO3)] have also been identified as a concern. In an effort to understand pre-1950, primary producer community structure and identify community shifts since 1950, we measured pigment proxies on three sediment cores collected in Water Conservation Area-2A (WCA-2A) along a phosphorus enrichment gradient. Photosynthetic pigments, sediment total phosphorus content (TP), organic matter, total organic carbon and nitrogen were used to infer historic primary producer communities and changes in water quality and hydrology regulating those communities. Excess 210Pb was used to establish historic dates for the sediment cores. Results indicate the northern area of WCA-2A increased marl deposition and increased algal abundance ca. 1920. This increase in (presumably) calcareous periphyton before intensive agriculture and impoundment suggest canal-derived calcium inputs and to some extent early drainage effects played a role in initiating this community shift. The northern area community then shifted to Typha dominance around 1965. The areas to the south in WCA-2A experienced increased marl deposition and algal abundance around or just prior to 1950s impoundment, the precise timing limited by core age resolution. Continued increases in algal abundance were evident after 1950, coinciding with impoundment and deepening of canals draining into WCA-2A, both likely increasing water mineral and nutrient concentrations. The intermediate site developed a Typha-dominated community ca. 1995 while the southern-most core site WCA-2A has yet to develop Typha dominance. Numerous studies link sediment TP >650 mg P/kg to marsh habitat degradation into Typha-dominance. The northern and intermediate cores where Typha is currently support this previous research by showing a distinct shift in the sediment record to Typha dominance corresponding to sediment TP between 600 and 700 mg P/kg. These temporal and spatial differences are consistent with modern evidence showing water-column gradients in mineral inputs (including Ca, carbonates, and phosphorus) altering primary producer community structure in WCA-2A, but also suggest hydroperiod has an effect on the mechanisms regulating periphyton development and Typha dominance.

Data compilation on the biological response to ocean acidification: environmental and experimental context of data sets and related literature

The exponential growth of studies on the biological response to ocean acidification over the last few decades has generated a large amount of data. To facilitate data comparison, a data compilation hosted at the data publisher PANGAEA was initiated in 2008 and is updated on a regular basis (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.149999). By January 2015, a total of 581 data sets (over 4 000 000 data points) from 539 papers had been archived. Here we present the developments of this data compilation five years since its first description by Nisumaa et al. (2010). Most of study sites from which data archived are still in the Northern Hemisphere and the number of archived data from studies from the Southern Hemisphere and polar oceans are still relatively low. Data from 60 studies that investigated the response of a mix of organisms or natural communities were all added after 2010, indicating a welcomed shift from the study of individual organisms to communities and ecosystems. The initial imbalance of considerably more data archived on calcification and primary production than on other processes has improved. There is also a clear tendency towards more data archived from multifactorial studies after 2010. For easier and more effective access to ocean acidification data, the ocean acidification community is strongly encouraged to contribute to the data archiving effort, and help develop standard vocabularies describing the variables and define best practices for archiving ocean acidification data.

Circumpolar dataset of Soil Organic Carbon north of treeline derived from ENVISAT ASAR GM, link to GeoTIFF

A new approach for the estimation of soil organic carbon (SOC) pools north of the tree line has been developed based on synthetic aperture radar (SAR; ENVISAT Advanced SAR Global Monitoring mode) data. SOC values are directly determined from backscatter values instead of upscaling using land cover or soil classes. The multi-mode capability of SAR allows application across scales. It can be shown that measurements in C band under frozen conditions represent vegetation and surface structure properties which relate to soil properties, specifically SOC. It is estimated that at least 29 Pg C is stored in the upper 30 cm of soils north of the tree line. This is approximately 25 % less than stocks derived from the soil-map-based Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database (NCSCD). The total stored carbon is underestimated since the established empirical relationship is not valid for peatlands or strongly cryoturbated soils. The approach does, however, provide the first spatially consistent account of soil organic carbon across the Arctic. Furthermore, it could be shown that values obtained from 1 km resolution SAR correspond to accounts based on a high spatial resolution (2 m) land cover map over a study area of about 7 × 7 km in NE Siberia. The approach can be also potentially transferred to medium-resolution C-band SAR data such as ENVISAT ASAR Wide Swath with ~120 m resolution but it is in general limited to regions without woody vegetation. Global Monitoring-mode-derived SOC increases with unfrozen period length. This indicates the importance of this parameter for modelling of the spatial distribution of soil organic carbon storage.

Historical global map of NH4+ and NO3- application in synthetic nitrogen fertilizer, link to NetCDF files

This paper provides a method for constructing a new historical global nitrogen fertilizer application map (0.5° × 0.5° resolution) for the period 1961-2010 based on country-specific information from Food and Agriculture Organization statistics (FAOSTAT) and various global datasets. This new map incorporates the fraction of NH+4 (and NONO-3) in N fertilizer inputs by utilizing fertilizer species information in FAOSTAT, in which species can be categorized as NH+4 and/or NO-3-forming N fertilizers. During data processing, we applied a statistical data imputation method for the missing data (19 % of national N fertilizer consumption) in FAOSTAT. The multiple imputation method enabled us to fill gaps in the time-series data using plausible values using covariates information (year, population, GDP, and crop area). After the imputation, we downscaled the national consumption data to a gridded cropland map. Also, we applied the multiple imputation method to the available chemical fertilizer species consumption, allowing for the estimation of the NH+4/NO-3 ratio in national fertilizer consumption. In this study, the synthetic N fertilizer inputs in 2000 showed a general consistency with the existing N fertilizer map (Potter et al., 2010, doi:10.1175/2009EI288.1) in relation to the ranges of N fertilizer inputs. Globally, the estimated N fertilizer inputs based on the sum of filled data increased from 15 Tg-N to 110 Tg-N during 1961-2010. On the other hand, the global NO-3 input started to decline after the late 1980s and the fraction of NO-3 in global N fertilizer decreased consistently from 35 % to 13 % over a 50-year period. NH+4 based fertilizers are dominant in most countries; however, the NH+4/NO-3 ratio in N fertilizer inputs shows clear differences temporally and geographically. This new map can be utilized as an input data to global model studies and bring new insights for the assessment of historical terrestrial N cycling changes.

Climate forecast data (Nino3.4 SST, Arctic sea ice extent) and observational references, link to files in Rdata format

This data set contains seasonal forecasts of sea surface temperature and Arctic sea ice extent from state-of-the-art climate models, along with observational references used to evaluate those forecasts. Common skill scores like the correlation between modelled and observed time series are also reported.

Reporting behaviour change interventions : do the behaviour change technique taxonomy v1, and training in its use, improve the quality of intervention descriptions?

Acknowledgements This research was funded by the MRC via its Methodology Panel: ‘Strengthening evaluation and implementation by specifying components of behaviour change interventions’ Ref: G0901474/1. We thank the participants who took part in the studies that form this research. We also thank Derek Johnston (Emeritus Professor, University of Aberdeen) for his guidance on statistical analyses.

Estimation of Inequality Indices of the Cumulative Distribution Function

Date of Acceptance: 02/03/2015

Estimation of Inequality Indices of the Cumulative Distribution Function

Date of Acceptance: 02/03/2015

Energy estimation of cosmic rays with the Engineering Radio Array of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Auger Engineering Radio Array (AERA) is part of the Pierre Auger Observatory and is used to detect the radio emission of cosmic-ray air showers. These observations are compared to the data of the surface detector stations of the Observatory, which provide well-calibrated information on the cosmic-ray energies and arrival directions. The response of the radio stations in the 30-80 MHz regime has been thoroughly calibrated to enable the reconstruction of the incoming electric field. For the latter, the energy deposit per area is determined from the radio pulses at each observer position and is interpolated using a two-dimensional function that takes into account signal asymmetries due to interference between the geomagnetic and charge-excess emission components. The spatial integral over the signal distribution gives a direct measurement of the energy transferred from the primary cosmic ray into radio emission in the AERA frequency range. We measure 15.8 MeV of radiation energy for a 1 EeV air shower arriving perpendicularly to the geomagnetic field. This radiation energy-corrected for geometrical effects-is used as a cosmic-ray energy estimator. Performing an absolute energy calibration against the surface-detector information, we observe that this radio-energy estimator scales quadratically with the cosmic-ray energy as expected for coherent emission. We find an energy resolution of the radio reconstruction of 22% for the data set and 17% for a high-quality subset containing only events with at least five radio stations with signal.

Surface quality and surface waves on subwavelength-structured silver films

We analyze the physical-chemical surface properties of single-slit, single-groove subwavelength-structured silver films with high-resolution transmission electron microscopy and calculate exact solutions to Maxwell’s equations corresponding to recent far-field interferometry experiments using these structures. Contrary to a recent suggestion the surface analysis shows that the silver films are free of detectable contaminants. The finite-difference time-domain calculations, in excellent agreement with experiment, show a rapid fringe amplitude decrease in the near zone (slit-groove distance out to 3–4 wavelengths). Extrapolation to slit-groove distances beyond the near zone shows that the surface wave evolves to the expected bound surface plasmon polariton (SPP). Fourier analysis of these results indicates the presence of a distribution of transient, evanescent modes around the SPP that dephase and dissipate as the surface wave evolves from the near to the far zone.

Prospective Estimation of Organ Dose Prior to Examination: Matching Patient to Digital Phantoms

Prospective estimation of patient CT organ dose prior to examination can help technologist adjust CT scan settings to reduce radiation dose to patient while maintaining certain image quality. One possible way to achieve this is matching patient to digital models precisely. In previous work, patient matching was performed manually by matching the trunk height which was defined as the distance from top of clavicle to bottom of pelvis. However, this matching method is time consuming and impractical in scout images where entire trunk is not included. Purpose of this work was to develop an automatic patient matching strategy and verify its accuracy.

Automated Assessment of Image Quality and Dose Attributes in Clinical CT Images

Computed tomography (CT) is a valuable technology to the healthcare enterprise as evidenced by the more than 70 million CT exams performed every year. As a result, CT has become the largest contributor to population doses amongst all medical imaging modalities that utilize man-made ionizing radiation. Acknowledging the fact that ionizing radiation poses a health risk, there exists the need to strike a balance between diagnostic benefit and radiation dose. Thus, to ensure that CT scanners are optimally used in the clinic, an understanding and characterization of image quality and radiation dose are essential.

The state-of-the-art in both image quality characterization and radiation dose estimation in CT are dependent on phantom based measurements reflective of systems and protocols. For image quality characterization, measurements are performed on inserts imbedded in static phantoms and the results are ascribed to clinical CT images. However, the key objective for image quality assessment should be its quantification in clinical images; that is the only characterization of image quality that clinically matters as it is most directly related to the actual quality of clinical images. Moreover, for dose estimation, phantom based dose metrics, such as CT dose index (CTDI) and size specific dose estimates (SSDE), are measured by the scanner and referenced as an indicator for radiation exposure. However, CTDI and SSDE are surrogates for dose, rather than dose per-se.

Currently there are several software packages that track the CTDI and SSDE associated with individual CT examinations. This is primarily the result of two causes. The first is due to bureaucracies and governments pressuring clinics and hospitals to monitor the radiation exposure to individuals in our society. The second is due to the personal concerns of patients who are curious about the health risks associated with the ionizing radiation exposure they receive as a result of their diagnostic procedures.

An idea that resonates with clinical imaging physicists is that patients come to the clinic to acquire quality images so they can receive a proper diagnosis, not to be exposed to ionizing radiation. Thus, while it is important to monitor the dose to patients undergoing CT examinations, it is equally, if not more important to monitor the image quality of the clinical images generated by the CT scanners throughout the hospital.

The purposes of the work presented in this thesis are threefold: (1) to develop and validate a fully automated technique to measure spatial resolution in clinical CT images, (2) to develop and validate a fully automated technique to measure image contrast in clinical CT images, and (3) to develop a fully automated technique to estimate radiation dose (not surrogates for dose) from a variety of clinical CT protocols.

Time-series of snow spectral albedo and superficial snow specific surface area at Dome C in Antarctica, 2012-2015

Spectral albedo has been measured at Dome C since December 2012 in the visible and near infrared (400 - 1050 nm) at sub-hourly resolution using a home-made spectral radiometer. Superficial specific surface area (SSA) has been estimated by fitting the observed albedo spectra to the analytical Asymptotic Approximation Radiative Transfer theory (AART). The dataset includes fully-calibrated albedo and SSA that pass several quality checks as described in the companion article. Only data for solar zenith angles less than 75° have been included, which theoretically spans the period October-March. In addition, to correct for residual errors still affecting data after the calibration, especially at the solar zenith angles higher than 60°, we produced a higher quality albedo time-series as follows: In the SSA estimation process described in the companion paper, a scaling coefficient A between the observed albedo and the theoretical model predictions was introduced to cope with these errors. This coefficient thus provides a first order estimate of the residual error. By dividing the albedo by this coefficient, we produced the "scaled fully-calibrated albedo". We strongly recommend to use the latter for most applications because it generally remains in the physical range 0-1. The former albedo is provided for reference to the companion paper and because it does not depend on the SSA estimation process and its underlying assumptions.