Climate change and coastal waterbird populations - past declines and future impacts

Considerable attention has been given to the impact of climate change on avian populations over the last decade. In this paper we examine two issues with respect to coastal bird populations in the UK: (1) is there any evidence that current populations are declining due to climate change, and (2) how might we predict the response of populations in the future? We review the cause of population decline in two species associated with saltmarsh habitats. The abundance of Common Redshank Tringa totanus breeding on saltmarsh declined by about 23% between the mid-1980s and mid-1990s, but the decline appears to have been caused by an increase in grazing pressure. The number of Twite Carduelis flavirostris wintering on the coast of East Anglia has declined dramatically over recent decades; there is evidence linking this decline with habitat loss but a causal role for climate change is unclear. These examples illustrate that climate change could be having population-level impacts now, but also show that it is dangerous to become too narrowly focused on single issues affecting coastal birds. Making predictions about how populations might respond to future climate change depends on an adequate understanding of important ecological processes at an appropriate spatial scale. We illustrate this with recent work conducted on the Icelandic population of Black-tailed Godwits Limosa limosa islandica that shows large-scale regulatory processes. Most predictive models to date have focused on local populations (single estuary or a group of neighbouring estuaries). We discuss the role such models might play in risk assessment, and the need for them to be linked to larger-scale ecological processes. We argue that future work needs to focus on spatial scale issues and on linking physical models of coastal environments with important ecological processes.

Validation of the FALL3D ash dispersion model using observations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash clouds

During April-May 2010 volcanic ash clouds from the Icelandic Eyjafjallajökull volcano reached Europe causing an unprecedented disruption of the EUR/NAT region airspace. Civil aviation authorities banned all flight operations because of the threat posed by volcanic ash to modern turbine aircraft. New quantitative airborne ash mass concentration thresholds, still under discussion, were adopted for discerning regions contaminated by ash. This has implications for ash dispersal models routinely used to forecast the evolution of ash clouds. In this new context, quantitative model validation and assessment of the accuracies of current state-of-the-art models is of paramount importance. The passage of volcanic ash clouds over central Europe, a territory hosting a dense network of meteorological and air quality observatories, generated a quantity of observations unusual for volcanic clouds. From the ground, the cloud was observed by aerosol lidars, lidar ceilometers, sun photometers, other remote-sensing instru- ments and in-situ collectors. From the air, sondes and multiple aircraft measurements also took extremely valuable in-situ and remote-sensing measurements. These measurements constitute an excellent database for model validation. Here we validate the FALL3D ash dispersal model by comparing model results with ground and airplane-based measurements obtained during the initial 14e23 April 2010 Eyjafjallajökull explosive phase. We run the model at high spatial resolution using as input hourly- averaged observed heights of the eruption column and the total grain size distribution reconstructed from field observations. Model results are then compared against remote ground-based and in-situ aircraft-based measurements, including lidar ceilometers from the German Meteorological Service, aerosol lidars and sun photometers from EARLINET and AERONET networks, and flight missions of the German DLR Falcon aircraft. We find good quantitative agreement, with an error similar to the spread in the observations (however depending on the method used to estimate mass eruption rate) for both airborne and ground mass concentration. Such verification results help us understand and constrain the accuracy and reliability of ash transport models and it is of enormous relevance for designing future operational mitigation strategies at Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers.

The signature of ENSO in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude seasonal mean flow and high-frequency intraseasonal variability

The impact of pronounced positive and negative sea surface temperature (STT) anomalies in the tropical Pacific associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon on the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during the boreal winter season is investigated. This includes both the impact on the seasonal mean flow and on the intraseasonal variability on synoptic time scales. Moreover, the interaction between the transient fluctuations on these times scales and the mean circulation is examined. Both data from an ensemble of five simulations with the ECHAM3 atmospheric general circulation model at a horizontal resolution of T42 each covering the period from 1979 through 1992 and operational analyses from ECMWF for the corresponding period are examined. In each of the simulations observed SSTs for the period of investigation are given as lower boundary forcing, but different atmospheric initial conditions are prescribed. The simulations with ECHAM3 reveal a distinct impact of the pronounced SST-anomalies in the tropical Pacific on the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during El Niño as well as during La Niña events. These changes in the atmospheric circulation, which are found to be highly significant in the Pacific/North American as well as in the Atlantic/European region, are consistent with the essential results obtained from the analyses. The pronounced SST-anomalies in the tropical Pacific lead to changes in the mean circulation, which are characterized by typical circulation patterns. These changes in the mean circulation are accompanied by marked variations of the activity of the transient fluctuations on synoptic time scales, that are changes in both the kinetic energy on these time scales and the atmospheric transports of momentum and heat accomplished by the short baroclinic waves. The synoptic disturbances, on the other hand, play also an important role in controlling the changes in the mean circulation associated with the ENSO phenomenon. They maintain these typical circulation patterns via barotropic, but counteract them via baroclinic processes. The hypothesis of an impact of the ENSO phenomenon in the Atlantic/European region can be supported. As the determining factor the intensification (reduction) of the Aleutian low and the simultaneous reduction (intensification) of the Icelandic low during El Niño and during La Niña events respectively, is identified. The changes in the intensity of the Aleutian low during the ENSO-events are accompanied by an alteration of the transport of momentum caused by the short baroclinic waves over the North American continent in such a way that the changes in the intensity of the Icelandic low during El Niño as well as during La Niña events are maintained.

Climate predictability experiments with a general circulation model

The atmospheric response to the evolution of the global sea surface temperatures from 1979 to 1992 is studied using the Max-Planck-Institut 19 level atmospheric general circulation model, ECHAM3 at T 42 resolution. Five separate 14-year integrations are performed and results are presented for each individual realization and for the ensemble-averaged response. The results are compared to a 30-year control integration using a climate monthly mean state of the sea surface temperatures and to analysis data. It is found that the ECHAM3 model, by and large, does reproduce the observed response pattern to El Nin˜o and La Nin˜a. During the El Nin˜ o events, the subtropical jet streams in both hemispheres are intensified and displaced equatorward, and there is a tendency towards weak upper easterlies over the equator. The Southern Oscillation is a very stable feature of the integrations and is accurately reproduced in all experiments. The inter-annual variability at middle- and high-latitudes, on the other hand, is strongly dominated by chaotic dynamics, and the tropical SST forcing only modulates the atmospheric circulation. The potential predictability of the model is investigated for six different regions. Signal to noise ratio is large in most parts of the tropical belt, of medium strength in the western hemisphere and generally small over the European area. The ENSO signal is most pronounced during the boreal spring. A particularly strong signal in the precipitation field in the extratropics during spring can be found over the southern United States. Western Canada is normally warmer during the warm ENSO phase, while northern Europe is warmer than normal during the ENSO cold phase. The reason is advection of warm air due to a more intense Pacific low than normal during the warm ENSO phase and a more intense Icelandic low than normal during the cold ENSO phase, respectively.

Horizontal and vertical structure of the Eyjafjallajökull ash cloud over the UK: a comparison of airborne lidar observations and simulations

During April and May 2010 the ash cloud from the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull caused widespread disruption to aviation over northern Europe. The location and impact of the eruption led to a wealth of observations of the ash cloud were being obtained which can be used to assess modelling of the long range transport of ash in the troposphere. The UK FAAM (Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements) BAe-146-301 research aircraft overflew the ash cloud on a number of days during May. The aircraft carries a downward looking lidar which detected the ash layer through the backscatter of the laser light. In this study ash concentrations derived from the lidar are compared with simulations of the ash cloud made with NAME (Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment), a general purpose atmospheric transport and dispersion model. The simulated ash clouds are compared to the lidar data to determine how well NAME simulates the horizontal and vertical structure of the ash clouds. Comparison between the ash concentrations derived from the lidar and those from NAME is used to define the fraction of ash emitted in the eruption that is transported over long distances compared to the total emission of tephra. In making these comparisons possible position errors in the simulated ash clouds are identified and accounted for. The ash layers seen by the lidar considered in this study were thin, with typical depths of 550–750 m. The vertical structure of the ash cloud simulated by NAME was generally consistent with the observed ash layers, although the layers in the simulated ash clouds that are identified with observed ash layers are about twice the depth of the observed layers. The structure of the simulated ash clouds were sensitive to the profile of ash emissions that was assumed. In terms of horizontal and vertical structure the best results were obtained by assuming that the emission occurred at the top of the eruption plume, consistent with the observed structure of eruption plumes. However, early in the period when the intensity of the eruption was low, assuming that the emission of ash was uniform with height gives better guidance on the horizontal and vertical structure of the ash cloud. Comparison of the lidar concentrations with those from NAME show that 2–5% of the total mass erupted by the volcano remained in the ash cloud over the United Kingdom.

Espelhos partidos : leituras e releituras da lenda heróica dos atridas

O trabalho foi desenvolvido analisando-se a lenda heróica da família dos Atridas, através da trilogia grega Orestéia, de Ésquilo, relacionando-a com Les mouches, de Sartre, e com Électre, de Giraudoux, comparando-as também com as duas Electra, a de Sófocles e a de Eurípides, partindo da análise do “texto como produtividade”, segundo Roland Barthes, que trabalha a reescritura do texto realizada pelo leitor. Os textos escolhidos foram produzidos e encenados em momentos de guerra ou de sua iminência e, através do estudo dos ordenamentos jurídicos vigentes em cada época, foi possível comprovar que, na Atenas do século V, ocorre a construção do conceito de responsabilidade individual, superando-se a imposição da punição aos familiares e à descendência do criminoso, enquanto que na França ocupada pelo exército nazista ocorre o inverso: a responsabilidade pelos assassinatos cometidos pela Resistência é atribuída a toda a comunidade. Confrontamos as relações de poder engendradas e expostas nos textos, refletindo as que estavam ocorrendo no contexto histórico-político, concluindo que a tragédia grega se inseriu como mediadora da realidade político-social da polis, ao contrário das releituras francesas, que tinham uma inserção periférica na sociedade francesa de 1937 a 1944. É em busca de um sentimento de continuidade e de transcendência que ocorre o retorno às tragédias gregas e às suas releituras, visto que narram lendas heróicas que relembram, mesmo ao homem do século XXI, sua mortalidade e sua incapacidade de prever os desdobramentos de suas ações.

A leitura de literatura na escola: por uma educação emocional de crianças na educação infantil

This dissertation examines the contributions of juvenile literature reading for the problematization of the emotional experiences and conflicts of children at infant education. Its importance consists in providing useful information for the pedagogic work orientated to literature reading at the initial series of basic education, in order to increase the teacher s ability to explore the literary text from its instigating and enriching nature in view of the child s emotional experiences and conflicts. It is methodologically based on the principles of the qualitative research, what characterizes it as a case study. The research focused a level V-infant education class with 28 students in 5-6 age group, at a public school of Natal, State of Rio Grande do Norte (Brazil). The used resources were: audio recording, field diary, and interviews. Seventeen classes were carried out and they consisted in reading sessions of classic and contemporaneous tales, fables, and legends which used different didactic strategies. These sessions were developed in accordance with the reading experience through scaffolding instructions as it was described by Graves & Graves. The theoretical references were the studies of Amarilha (1997/ 2006), Bettelheim (2004), Coelho (1987/2000), Damásio (2005), Del Nero (2003), Eco (1994/2006), Held (1980), Iser (1996), Jauss (2002), Stierle (2002), Wallon (2007), Telles (2006), Yunes (2003), and Zilberman (1987). The analyses showed that literary reading in class is a special environment for inclusion of the reader s subjectivity; as well as the inclusion of their emotional experiences and their conflicts within the story by way of helping children think and become suitable for dealing with their inner feelings. The literary reading is presented as an experiential and formative activity which helps children understand their emotions through a process of identification, exteriorization, and catharsis; what implies that the esthetic experience from the text makes possible the reader s self-knowledge and increases the perception of his inner feelings and objective reality so that this reader has emotional capital to deal with life difficulties. It is important to highlight that the discussions carried out in the class represented a field of sharing experiences through which each reader had the chance to present their experience of life to the others, including their sorrows and sufferings, in order to help them to develop best strategies to deal with the social environment

A leitura como instrumento facilitador da compreensão matemática

This research builds on a qualitative approach and proposes action research to develop, implement and evaluate a strategy grounded in the teaching of geometry reading from different text types, in order to enhance the understanding of mathematical concepts by students in the 6th grade of elementary school. The teaching of mathematics, strengthened by a reading practice that fosters a greater understanding of science, because it would contribute to the expansion of vocabulary, acquire a higher level of reasoning, interpretation and understanding, providing opportunities thus a greater contextualization of the student, making out the role of mere spectator to the builder of mathematical knowledge. As a methodological course comply with the following steps: selecting a field of intervention school, the class-subject (6 years of elementary school) and teacher-collaborator. Then there was a diagnostic activity involving the content of geometry - geometric solids, flat regions and contours - with the class chosen, and it was found, in addition to the unknown geometry, a great difficulty to contextualize it. From the analysis of the answers given by students, was drawn up and applied three interventional activities developed from various text (legends, poems, articles, artwork) for the purpose of leading the student to realize, through reading these texts, the discussions generated from these questions and activities proposed by the present mathematics in context, thus getting a better understanding and interaction with this discipline as hostility by most students. It was found from the intervention, the student had a greater ability to understand concepts, internalize information and use of geometry is more consistent and conscientious, and above all, learning math more enjoyable

As Filhas do Arco-Íris, de Eulício Farias de Lacerda : mitos, lendas e contos populares como elementos estruturantes do romance

The corpus of this work constitutes an analysis the literary work As Filhas do Arco-Íris, by Eulício Farias de Lacerda, considering object of study myths, legends and popular stories as estruturant elements of the romance. The unchainment of this reading considers aspects of the oral tradition as starting point for the rupture tradition. In that perspective, it became fundamental to describe aspects of the popular culture that consolidated the Brazilian Literature during the 20th century. Like this, it was necessary to understand the development of oral elements and the structuring of the folk-tales, pointing out that As Filhas do Arco-Íris was built in a especial way with regionalist characteristics, following the parameters of the romances published among the years 1930 and 1950. In the researched work, it was noticed a narrative that gathers stories, legends, myths, proverbs and oral locutions. In this, it reveals that the Brazilian literary production grew in aesthetics and thematic. Like this, As Filhas do Arco-Íris is an exercise of the experience regionalist inserted in the contemporary novel, because even with your first publication in 1980, the narrative is configured to the molds of a Romance de 30

Marcas da escritura oralizada em Sagarana

This work presents a surveyabout the short stories of Sagarana. first book by Guimarães Rosa, publishedin 1946, and that marked the Brazilian litterature definitely, since we are in front of a new construction of the language, linked to the establishment of a new Portuguese, trough the association between the cult speech and the speech from the sertão, always with a pretence sensitivity that rouses when joins archaisms, neologisms, regional expressions and literary language. Among the nine short stories that made up the work, we will select the following ones, to be analysed: "O Burrinho Pedrês", Traços Biográficos de Lalino Salãthiel ou A volta do marido pródigo , "São Marcos" and A hora e vez de Augusto Matraga". Among the hypothesis that organize and surround this work, we will approach the narrative aesthetics, the creative process and the orallity, i.e., how Rosa trans1ate the oral world, rescuing the archaizing speech in the written narrative construction.We will choose for the establishment of developed questions in this ressearch the theories of Paul Zumthor, Câmara Cascudo, Sílvio Romero, Antonio Candido and Alfredo Bosi, among others. Therefore, we will see, through the narrative reading, how the popular parlances are used, which they are linked. The citations that show the popular tradition presence will be pointed out, through anecdotes, folk songs, legends, myths, folktales and proverbs. Therefore, we, readers, will see the popular tradition presence, that will show itself, and the Rosa's thinking will be known through language art, what is the result of the writer's deliberate choice. We will see the popular experience turned to art

Marcadores da organização do padrão discursivo narrativo: uma abordagem funcional centrada no uso

This thesis has as its object the Markers Organization Standard Narrative Discourse (MON), from its occurrence in oral and written corpora of different realizations of narrative discourse, considering its locus of occurrence in the narrative and discursive functioning. The research is guided by the Functional Linguistic Usage-Based, approach to which the organization of language is directly linked to the user experience, so that grammar is shaped by discourse. We examined only the narrative portions of Experience Reports, Tales and Legends in the oral and written, as follows: 3 inquiries Corpus Reports Remaining Quilombo (RN); 11 Corpus Legends legends of the Amazon, 14 Tales of Corpus Tales Brazilians and 21 Reports of experiences of Corpus and Discourse Grammar, with about 10,000 words in each corpus. A total of 22 markers were identified, which were: (1) classified according to the locus of occurrence in the narrative structure, as Labov (1972), (2) associated, according to the type of pattern that occur in narrative discourse, (3) described from the discursive function they perform. The research has relevance to the extent it is based speech analysis and offers proposals for productive teaching of mother tongue in which students and teachers can, grounded in language studies, consider living language, as an object of study, based on the National Curriculum Guidelines (OCN) and making use of New Technologies of Information and Communication (NTIC)

Guerra e identidade: um estudo da marcialidade no Heimskringla

The goal of our dissertation is to study how the Scandinavian writings produced a Norwegian identity of warlike ideals in a compilation of Icelandic sagas known as Heimskringla and has parts of its content focused on storytelling about a troubled time of Scandinavian monarchies rising between the 8th and 11th centuries, which is called the Viking Age. The Heimskringla, also known as The Circle of the World is a set of writings based on Icelandic oral memory about the Norwegian kings and the conception of a Norwegian territory. While we investigated the relationship between the members of royalty, their companions and the Scandinavian people, we delineate the relationship between memory, identity and war. Our study points out how the Scandinavian war produces, in its storytelling, proper spaces, in socio-political relations among the participants, in the organization of its conflicts or the location of war activities, where places are transformed into essential points in these narratives. The war is both a place of identity statements and a space of practices, necessary for the strengthening of royal power

Ludwig Tieck: Meandros Góticos

Ludwig Tieck (1773-1853) was a pioneer of German Romanticism alongside figures such as Novalis, Wackenroder, brothers August and Friedrich Schlegel, Schleiermacher, Schelling. A great admirer of Shakespeare and Calderón de la Barca, Tieck envisioned literature as a supranational terrain and an area of convergence of different traditions and perspectives. Thus he absorbed numerous elements from popular culture (fairy tales, legends, superstitions) and merged with the trends of his time, among which the mid eighteenth-century gothic and horror narrative. In Tieck the macabre becomes an expression of questions about the relationship between the subject and on the very notion (based on common sense) that there would be a single reality and independent from the point of view of who observes or describes. Tieck aesthetically formulated questions that echoed throughout German romanticism, expressing concerns and anxieties inseparable from his poetic and literary production.

A caixa de Pandora: as deusas e o feminino no cinema

Pós-graduação em Artes - IA

Dutra, Adhemar e a repressão ao PCB: o incidente de Ribeirão Preto (1949)

Pós-graduação em História - FCHS