881 resultados para Learning Bayesian Networks


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Diagnosing faults in wastewater treatment, like diagnosis of most problems, requires bi-directional plausible reasoning. This means that both predictive (from causes to symptoms) and diagnostic (from symptoms to causes) inferences have to be made, depending on the evidence available, in reasoning for the final diagnosis. The use of computer technology for the purpose of diagnosing faults in the wastewater process has been explored, and a rule-based expert system was initiated. It was found that such an approach has serious limitations in its ability to reason bi-directionally, which makes it unsuitable for diagnosing tasks under the conditions of uncertainty. The probabilistic approach known as Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNS) was then critically reviewed, and was found to be well-suited for diagnosis under uncertainty. The theory and application of BBNs are outlined. A full-scale BBN for the diagnosis of faults in a wastewater treatment plant based on the activated sludge system has been developed in this research. Results from the BBN show good agreement with the predictions of wastewater experts. It can be concluded that the BBNs are far superior to rule-based systems based on certainty factors in their ability to diagnose faults and predict systems in complex operating systems having inherently uncertain behaviour.

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Control design for stochastic uncertain nonlinear systems is traditionally based on minimizing the expected value of a suitably chosen loss function. Moreover, most control methods usually assume the certainty equivalence principle to simplify the problem and make it computationally tractable. We offer an improved probabilistic framework which is not constrained by these previous assumptions, and provides a more natural framework for incorporating and dealing with uncertainty. The focus of this paper is on developing this framework to obtain an optimal control law strategy using a fully probabilistic approach for information extraction from process data, which does not require detailed knowledge of system dynamics. Moreover, the proposed control method framework allows handling the problem of input-dependent noise. A basic paradigm is proposed and the resulting algorithm is discussed. The proposed probabilistic control method is for the general nonlinear class of discrete-time systems. It is demonstrated theoretically on the affine class. A nonlinear simulation example is also provided to validate theoretical development.

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The motorsport industry is a high value-added and highly innovative business sector. The UK’s leading racing car manufacturers are world class centres of research, development and engineering. However, individual firms in the sector do not have the range and depth of capabilities to compete independently in motorsport’s dynamic and competitive environment. Industry attention has therefore progressively focused on how networks of collaborating firms can work together to develop new products, improve business processes and reduce costs. This report presents findings from a three year Cardiff Business School study which examined the ways in which firms collaborate as part of wider networks. The research involved gathering data from over 120 firms in the UK and Italian motorsport sectors.

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The importance of interorganizational networks in supporting or hindering the achievement of organizational objectives is now widely acknowledged. Network research is directed at understanding network processes and structures, and their impact upon performance. A key process is learning. The concepts of individual, group and organizational learning are long established. This article argues that learning might also usefully be regarded as occurring at a fourth system level, the interorganizational network. The concept of network learning - learning by a group of organizations as a group - is presented, and differentiated from other types of learning, notably interorganizational learning (learning in interorganizational contexts). Four cases of network learning are identified and analysed to provide insights into network learning processes and outcomes. It is proposed that 'network learning episode' offers a suitable unit of analysis for the empirical research needed to develop our understanding of this potentially important concept.

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The ALBA 2002 Call for Papers asks the question ‘How do organizational learning and knowledge management contribute to organizational innovation and change?’. Intuitively, we would argue, the answer should be relatively straightforward as links between learning and change, and knowledge management and innovation, have long been commonly assumed to exist. On the basis of this assumption, theories of learning tend to focus ‘within organizations’, and assume a transfer of learning from individual to organization which in turn leads to change. However, empirically, we find these links are more difficult to articulate. Organizations exist in complex embedded economic, political, social and institutional systems, hence organizational change (or innovation) may be influenced by learning in this wider context. Based on our research in this wider interorganizational setting, we first make the case for the notion of network learning that we then explore to develop our appreciation of change in interorganizational networks, and how it may be facilitated. The paper begins with a brief review of lite rature on learning in the organizational and interorganizational context which locates our stance on organizational learning versus the learning organization, and social, distributed versus technical, centred views of organizational learning and knowledge. Developing from the view that organizational learning is “a normal, if problematic, process in every organization” (Easterby-Smith, 1997: 1109), we introduce the notion of network learning: learning by a group of organizations as a group. We argue this is also a normal, if problematic, process in organizational relationships (as distinct from interorganizational learning), which has particular implications for network change. Part two of the paper develops our analysis, drawing on empirical data from two studies of learning. The first study addresses the issue of learning to collaborate between industrial customers and suppliers, leading to the case for network learning. The second, larger scale study goes on to develop this theme, examining learning around several major change issues in a healthcare service provider network. The learning processes and outcomes around the introduction of a particularly controversial and expensive technology are described, providing a rich and contrasting case with the first study. In part three, we then discuss the implications of this work for change, and for facilitating change. Conclusions from the first study identify potential interventions designed to facilitate individual and organizational learning within the customer organization to develop individual and organizational ‘capacity to collaborate’. Translated to the network example, we observe that network change entails learning at all levels – network, organization, group and individual. However, presenting findings in terms of interventions is less meaningful in an interorganizational network setting given: the differences in authority structures; the less formalised nature of the network setting; and the importance of evaluating performance at the network rather than organizational level. Academics challenge both the idea of managing change and of managing networks. Nevertheless practitioners are faced with the issue of understanding and in fluencing change in the network setting. Thus we conclude that a network learning perspective is an important development in our understanding of organizational learning, capability and change, locating this in the wider context in which organizations are embedded. This in turn helps to develop our appreciation of facilitating change in interorganizational networks, both in terms of change issues (such as introducing a new technology), and change orientation and capability.

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In this paper we study the self-organising behaviour of smart camera networks which use market-based handover of object tracking responsibilities to achieve an efficient allocation of objects to cameras. Specifically, we compare previously known homogeneous configurations, when all cameras use the same marketing strategy, with heterogeneous configurations, when each camera makes use of its own, possibly different marketing strategy. Our first contribution is to establish that such heterogeneity of marketing strategies can lead to system wide outcomes which are Pareto superior when compared to those possible in homogeneous configurations. However, since the particular configuration required to lead to Pareto efficiency in a given scenario will not be known in advance, our second contribution is to show how online learning of marketing strategies at the individual camera level can lead to high performing heterogeneous configurations from the system point of view, extending the Pareto front when compared to the homogeneous case. Our third contribution is to show that in many cases, the dynamic behaviour resulting from online learning leads to global outcomes which extend the Pareto front even when compared to static heterogeneous configurations. Our evaluation considers results obtained from an open source simulation package as well as data from a network of real cameras. © 2013 IEEE.

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questions of forming of learning sets for artificial neural networks in problems of lossless data compression are considered. Methods of construction and use of learning sets are studied. The way of forming of learning set during training an artificial neural network on the data stream is offered.

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In this letter, we derive continuum equations for the generalization error of the Bayesian online algorithm (BOnA) for the one-layer perceptron with a spherical covariance matrix using the Rosenblatt potential and show, by numerical calculations, that the asymptotic performance of the algorithm is the same as the one for the optimal algorithm found by means of variational methods with the added advantage that the BOnA does not use any inaccessible information during learning. © 2007 IEEE.

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The inverse controller is traditionally assumed to be a deterministic function. This paper presents a pedagogical methodology for estimating the stochastic model of the inverse controller. The proposed method is based on Bayes' theorem. Using Bayes' rule to obtain the stochastic model of the inverse controller allows the use of knowledge of uncertainty from both the inverse and the forward model in estimating the optimal control signal. The paper presents the methodology for general nonlinear systems and is demonstrated on nonlinear single-input-single-output (SISO) and multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO) examples. © 2006 IEEE.

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Report published in the Proceedings of the National Conference on "Education and Research in the Information Society", Plovdiv, May, 2015

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Lifelong surveillance is not cost-effective after endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR), but is required to detect aortic complications which are fatal if untreated (type 1/3 endoleak, sac expansion, device migration). Aneurysm morphology determines the probability of aortic complications and therefore the need for surveillance, but existing analyses have proven incapable of identifying patients at sufficiently low risk to justify abandoning surveillance. This study aimed to improve the prediction of aortic complications, through the application of machine-learning techniques. Patients undergoing EVAR at 2 centres were studied from 2004–2010. Aneurysm morphology had previously been studied to derive the SGVI Score for predicting aortic complications. Bayesian Neural Networks were designed using the same data, to dichotomise patients into groups at low- or high-risk of aortic complications. Network training was performed only on patients treated at centre 1. External validation was performed by assessing network performance independently of network training, on patients treated at centre 2. Discrimination was assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis to compare aortic complications in predicted low-risk versus predicted high-risk patients. 761 patients aged 75 +/− 7 years underwent EVAR in 2 centres. Mean follow-up was 36+/− 20 months. Neural networks were created incorporating neck angu- lation/length/diameter/volume; AAA diameter/area/volume/length/tortuosity; and common iliac tortuosity/diameter. A 19-feature network predicted aor- tic complications with excellent discrimination and external validation (5-year freedom from aortic complications in predicted low-risk vs predicted high-risk patients: 97.9% vs. 63%; p < 0.0001). A Bayesian Neural-Network algorithm can identify patients in whom it may be safe to abandon surveillance after EVAR. This proposal requires prospective study.

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Constant technology advances have caused data explosion in recent years. Accord- ingly modern statistical and machine learning methods must be adapted to deal with complex and heterogeneous data types. This phenomenon is particularly true for an- alyzing biological data. For example DNA sequence data can be viewed as categorical variables with each nucleotide taking four different categories. The gene expression data, depending on the quantitative technology, could be continuous numbers or counts. With the advancement of high-throughput technology, the abundance of such data becomes unprecedentedly rich. Therefore efficient statistical approaches are crucial in this big data era.

Previous statistical methods for big data often aim to find low dimensional struc- tures in the observed data. For example in a factor analysis model a latent Gaussian distributed multivariate vector is assumed. With this assumption a factor model produces a low rank estimation of the covariance of the observed variables. Another example is the latent Dirichlet allocation model for documents. The mixture pro- portions of topics, represented by a Dirichlet distributed variable, is assumed. This dissertation proposes several novel extensions to the previous statistical methods that are developed to address challenges in big data. Those novel methods are applied in multiple real world applications including construction of condition specific gene co-expression networks, estimating shared topics among newsgroups, analysis of pro- moter sequences, analysis of political-economics risk data and estimating population structure from genotype data.