When supply travels far beyond demand: Causes of oversupply in Spain’s transport infrastructure

Spain’s transport infrastructure policy has become a paradigmatic case of oversupply and of mismatch with demand. The massive expansion of the country’s transport infrastructure over the last decade has not been a response to demand bottlenecks or previously identified needs. For this reason, the intensity of use today on all interurban modes of transport in Spain falls well below that of other EU countries. This paper analyzes the institutional and regulatory factors that have permitted this policy, allowing us to draw lessons from the Spanish case that should help other countries avoid the pitfalls and shortcomings of Spanish policy.

When supply travels far beyond demand: Institutional and regulatory causes of oversupply in Spain’s transport infrastructure

Spain’s transport infrastructure policy has become a paradigmatic case of oversupply and of mismatch with demand. The massive expansion of the country’s transport infrastructure over the last decade has not been a response to demand bottlenecks or previously identified needs. For this reason, the intensity of use today on all interurban modes of transport in Spain falls well below that of other EU countries. This paper analyzes the institutional and regulatory factors that have permitted this policy, allowing us to draw lessons from the Spanish case that should help other countries avoid the pitfalls and shortcomings of Spanish policy. Based on our analysis, we also discuss policy remedies and suggest reforms in different regulatory areas, which could help improve the performance of Spain’s infrastructure policy.

Use of Statistical Methods in Demand Planning

In a very volatile industry of high technology it is of utmost importance to accurately forecast customers’ demand. However, statistical forecasting of sales, especially in heavily competitive electronics product business, has always been a challenging task due to very high variation in demand and very short product life cycles of products. The purpose of this thesis is to validate if statistical methods can be applied to forecasting sales of short life cycle electronics products and provide a feasible framework for implementing statistical forecasting in the environment of the case company. Two different approaches have been developed for forecasting on short and medium term and long term horizons. Both models are based on decomposition models, but differ in interpretation of the model residuals. For long term horizons residuals are assumed to represent white noise, whereas for short and medium term forecasting horizon residuals are modeled using statistical forecasting methods. Implementation of both approaches is performed in Matlab. Modeling results have shown that different markets exhibit different demand patterns and therefore different analytical approaches are appropriate for modeling demand in these markets. Moreover, the outcomes of modeling imply that statistical forecasting can not be handled separately from judgmental forecasting, but should be perceived only as a basis for judgmental forecasting activities. Based on modeling results recommendations for further deployment of statistical methods in sales forecasting of the case company are developed.

Responders to Wide-Pulse, High-Frequency Neuromuscular Electrical Stimulation Show Reduced Metabolic Demand: A 31P-MRS Study in Humans.

Conventional (CONV) neuromuscular electrical stimulation (NMES) (i.e., short pulse duration, low frequencies) induces a higher energetic response as compared to voluntary contractions (VOL). In contrast, wide-pulse, high-frequency (WPHF) NMES might elicit-at least in some subjects (i.e., responders)-a different motor unit recruitment compared to CONV that resembles the physiological muscle activation pattern of VOL. We therefore hypothesized that for these responder subjects, the metabolic demand of WPHF would be lower than CONV and comparable to VOL. 18 healthy subjects performed isometric plantar flexions at 10% of their maximal voluntary contraction force for CONV (25 Hz, 0.05 ms), WPHF (100 Hz, 1 ms) and VOL protocols. For each protocol, force time integral (FTI) was quantified and subjects were classified as responders and non-responders to WPHF based on k-means clustering analysis. Furthermore, a fatigue index based on FTI loss at the end of each protocol compared with the beginning of the protocol was calculated. Phosphocreatine depletion (ΔPCr) was assessed using 31P magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Responders developed four times higher FTI's during WPHF (99 ± 37 ×103 N.s) than non-responders (26 ± 12 ×103 N.s). For both responders and non-responders, CONV was metabolically more demanding than VOL when ΔPCr was expressed relative to the FTI. Only for the responder group, the ∆PCr/FTI ratio of WPHF (0.74 ± 0.19 M/N.s) was significantly lower compared to CONV (1.48 ± 0.46 M/N.s) but similar to VOL (0.65 ± 0.21 M/N.s). Moreover, the fatigue index was not different between WPHF (-16%) and CONV (-25%) for the responders. WPHF could therefore be considered as the less demanding NMES modality-at least in this subgroup of subjects-by possibly exhibiting a muscle activation pattern similar to VOL contractions.

Tourism Demand in Catalonia: detecting external economic factors

There is a lack of studies on tourism demand in Catalonia. To fill the gap, this paper focuses on detecting the macroeconomic factors that determine tourism demand in Catalonia. We also analyse the relation between these factors and tourism demand. Despite the strong seasonal component and the outliers in the time series of some countries, overnight stays give a better indication of tourism demand in Catalonia than the number of tourists. The degree of linear association between the macroeconomic variables and tourism demand is also higher when using quarterly rather than monthly data. Finally, there are notable differences between the results obtained for the different countries analysed. These results indicate that the best way to model tourism demand in Catalonia is to specify a quarterly model of overnight stays, differentiating between an aggregate demand model for the total number of tourists and specific models for each of the countries analysed.

Latent Class Analysis of Gambling Activities in a Sample of Young Swiss Men : Association with Gambling Problems, Substance Use Outcomes, Personality Traits and Coping Strategies.

The study aimed to identify different patterns of gambling activities (PGAs) and to investigate how PGAs differed in gambling problems, substance use outcomes, personality traits and coping strategies. A representative sample of 4989 young Swiss males completed a questionnaire assessing seven distinct gambling activities, gambling problems, substance use outcomes, personality traits and coping strategies. PGAs were identified using latent class analysis (LCA). Differences between PGAs in gambling and substance use outcomes, personality traits and coping strategies were tested. LCA identified six different PGAs. With regard to gambling and substance use outcomes, the three most problematic PGAs were extensive gamblers, followed by private gamblers, and electronic lottery and casino gamblers, respectively. By contrast, the three least detrimental PGAs were rare or non-gamblers, lottery only gamblers and casino gamblers. With regard to personality traits, compared with rare or non-gamblers, private and casino gamblers reported higher levels of sensation seeking. Electronic lottery and casino gamblers, private gamblers and extensive gamblers had higher levels of aggression-hostility. Extensive and casino gamblers reported higher levels of sociability, whereas casino gamblers reported lower levels of anxiety-neuroticism. Extensive gamblers used more maladaptive and less adaptive coping strategies than other groups. Results suggest that gambling is not a homogeneous activity since different types of gamblers exist according to the PGA they are engaged in. Extensive gamblers, electronic and casino gamblers and private gamblers may have the most problematic PGAs. Personality traits and coping skills may predispose individuals to PGAs associated with more or less negative outcomes.

Measuring school demand in the presence of spatial dependence. A conditional approach

Improving educational quality is an important public policy goal. However, its success requires identifying factors associated with student achievement. At the core of these proposals lies the principle that increased public school quality can make school system more efficient, resulting in correspondingly stronger performance by students. Nevertheless, the public educational system is not devoid of competition which arises, among other factors, through the efficiency of management and the geographical location of schools. Moreover, families in Spain appear to choose a school on the grounds of location. In this environment, the objective of this paper is to analyze whether geographical space has an impact on the relationship between the level of technical quality of public schools (measured by the efficiency score) and the school demand index. To do this, an empirical application is performed on a sample of 1,695 public schools in the region of Catalonia (Spain). This application shows the effects of spatial autocorrelation on the estimation of the parameters and how these problems are addressed through spatial econometrics models. The results confirm that space has a moderating effect on the relationship between efficiency and school demand, although only in urban municipalities.

IEA Bioenergy Task 40 “Sustainable International Bioenergy Trade: Securing supply and demand” Country report of Finland 2008

This study considered the current situation of biofuels markets in Finland. The fact that industry consumes more than half of the total primary energy, widely applied combined heat and power production and a high share of solid biomass fuels in the total energy consumption are specific to the Finnish energy system. Wood is the most important source of bioenergy in Finland, representing 21% of the total energy consumption in 2006. Almost 80% of the wood-based energy is recovered from industrial by-products and residues. Finland has commitment itself to maintaining its greenhouse gas emissions at the 1990 level, at the highest, during the period 2008–2012. The energy and climate policy carried out in recent years has been based on the National Energy and Climate introduced in 2005. The Finnish energy policy aims to achieve the target, and a variety of measures are taken to promote the use of renewable energy sources and especially wood fuels. In 2007, the government started to prepare a new long-term (up to the year 2050) climate and energy strategy that will meet EU’s new targets for the reduction of green house gas emissions and the promotion of renewable energy sources. The new strategy will be introduced during 2008. The international biofuels trade has a substantial importance for the utilisation of bioenergy in Finland. In 2006, the total international trading of solid and liquid biofuels was approximately 64 PJ of which import was 61 PJ. Most of the import is indirect and takes place within the forest industry’s raw wood imports. In 2006, as much as 24% of wood energy was based on foreignorigin wood. Wood pellets and tall oil form the majority of export streams of biofuels. The indirect import of wood fuels increased almost 10% in 2004–2006, while the direct trade of solid and liquid biofuels has been almost constant.

Optimal latent period in a bacteriophage population model structured by infection-age

We study the lysis timing of a bacteriophage population by means of a continuously infection-age-structured population dynamics model. The features of the model are the infection process of bacteria, the death process, and the lysis process which means the replication of bacteriophage viruses inside bacteria and the destruction of them. The time till lysis (or latent period) is assumed to have an arbitrary distribution. We have carried out an optimization procedure, and we have found that the latent period corresponding to maximal fitness (i.e. maximal growth rate of the bacteriophage population) is of fixed length. We also study the dependence of the optimal latent period on the amount of susceptible bacteria and the number of virions released by a single infection. Finally, the evolutionarily stable strategy of the latent period is also determined as a fixed period taking into account that super-infections are not considered

Improving demand forecasting practices in the industrial context

Demand forecasting is one of the fundamental managerial tasks. Most companies do not know their future demands, so they have to make plans based on demand forecasts. The literature offers many methods and approaches for producing forecasts. When selecting the forecasting approach, companies need to estimate the benefits provided by particular methods, as well as the resources that applying the methods call for. Former literature points out that even though many forecasting methods are available, selecting a suitable approach and implementing and managing it is a complex cross-functional matter. However, research that focuses on the managerial side of forecasting is relatively rare. This thesis explores the managerial problems that are involved when demand forecasting methods are applied in a context where a company produces products for other manufacturing companies. Industrial companies have some characteristics that differ from consumer companies, e.g. typically a lower number of customers and closer relationships with customers than in consumer companies. The research questions of this thesis are: 1. What kind of challenges are there in organizing an adequate forecasting process in the industrial context? 2. What kind of tools of analysis can be utilized to support the improvement of the forecasting process? The main methodological approach in this study is design science, where the main objective is to develop tentative solutions to real-life problems. The research data has been collected from two organizations. Managerial problems in organizing demand forecasting can be found in four interlinked areas: 1. defining the operational environment for forecasting, 2. defining the forecasting methods, 3. defining the organizational responsibilities, and 4. defining the forecasting performance measurement process. In all these areas, examples of managerial problems are described, and approaches for mitigating these problems are outlined.

Coat protein and RNAs of Cole latent virus are not present within chloroplasts of Chenopodium quinoa-infected cells

Cole latent virus (CoLV), genus Carlavirus, was studied by electron microscopy and biochemical approaches with respect both to the ultrastructure of the Chenopodium quinoa infected cells and to its association with chloroplasts. The CoLV was observed to be present as scattered particles interspersed with membranous vesicles and ribosomes or as dense masses of virus particles. These virus particles reacted by immunolabelling with a polyclonal antibody to CoLV. Morphologically, chloroplasts, mitochondria and nuclei appeared to be unaltered by virus infection and virus particles were not detected in these organelles. However, virus particle aggregates were frequently associated with the outer membrane of chloroplasts and occasionally with peroxisomes. Chloroplasts were purified by Percoll gradient, and the coat protein and virus-associated RNAs were extracted and analyzed by Western and Northern blots respectively. Coat protein and CoLV-associated RNAs were not detected within this organelle. The results presented in this work indicate that the association CoLV/chloroplasts, observed in the ultrastructural studies, might be a casual event in the host cell, and that the virus does not replicate inside the organelle.

Utilizing online demand generation in an engineering company

Työn tarkoituksena on selvittää miten sähköistä kysynnän herättämistä voidaan hyödyntää Mantsinen Group Ltd Oy:ssä siten, että sillä pystytään tukemaan myyntiä. Lisäksi sähköisen kysynnän herättämisen tehokkuutta tutkitaan, jotta saadaan selville onko se kannattavaa ja kuinka hyvin se sopii yritykselle. Kysynnän herättämisjärjestelmän käyttö on määritelty kirjallisuuteen perustuen ja sen jälkeen järjestelmän käyttö on aloitettu. Sähköisen kysynnän herättämisen tehokkuus mitataan kolmen kuukauden tarkastelujakson todellisella datalla. Sähköisen kysynnän herättämisen sopivuutta arvioidaan perustuen sen kustannustehokkuuteen ja tuloksiin. Työn tulokset osoittavat, että sähköinen kysynnän herättäminen on kannattavaa ja se sopii yritykselle. Sillä voidaan parhaiten tukea myyntiä järjestelmän tuottaessa laadukkaita myyntimahdollisuuksia tasaisena virtana myynnille. Myös aiemmin manuaalisesti tehtyjä työtehtäviä voidaan automatisoida ja näin vähentää myyjien työtaakkaa.

Quantification of incubation, latent and infection periods of Phakopsora pachyrhizi in soybean, according to chronological time and degree-days

ABSTRACT In experiments conducted in a growth chamber, the chronological time and the accumulated degree-days were determined for the duration of incubation, latent and infectious periods of Phakopsora pachyrhizi cultivars BRSGO 7560 and BRS 246 RR. Detached soybean leaflets were placed in gerbox-type acrylic boxes and inoculated with 20 x 103 uredospores/mL. The study was conducted at 12-h photoperiod and temperatures of 10ºC, 15ºC, 22ºC, 25ºC and 30°C for 30 days. Lesions and uredia/cm2were evaluated and the number of uredia per lesion was quantified after the beginning of sporulation. The sporulation potential was also quantified for cultivars BRSGO 7560 and BRS 246 RR. The steps of the infection process can be quantified based on both the chronological time and the accumulated heat. The cultivar BRSGO 7560 produced 4,012.8 spores/cm2 and BRS 246 RR, 7,348.4 uredospores/cm2. The largest number of uredia was produced at 25ºC in both cultivars; however, BRS 246 RR presented 372.7 uredia/cm2 and BRSGO 7560, 231.6 uredia/cm2. At 10ºC and 30°C, leaf infection did not occur in both cultivars.