Free trade and the development of sustainable agriculture in the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Health and Tourism sectors in Saint Lucia

This report analyses the agriculture, health and tourism sectors in Saint Lucia to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change in Saint Lucia. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An evaluation of various adaptation strategies for each sector was also undertaken using standard evaluation techniques. The key subsectors in agriculture are expected to have mixed impacts under the A2 and B2 scenarios. Banana, fisheries and root crop outputs are expected to fall with climate change, but tree crop and vegetable production are expected to rise. In aggregate, in every decade up to 2050, these sub-sectors combined are expected to experience a gain under climate change with the highest gains under A2. By 2050, the cumulative gain under A2 is calculated as approximately US$389.35 million and approximately US$310.58 million under B2, which represents 17.93% and 14.30% of the 2008 GDP respectively. This result was unexpected and may well be attributed to the unavailability of annual data that would have informed a more robust assessment. Additionally, costs to the agriculture sector due to tropical cyclones were estimated to be $6.9 million and $6.2 million under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. There are a number of possible adaptation strategies that can be employed by the agriculture sector. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the benefit-cost ratio are: (1) Designing and implementation of holistic water management plans (2) Establishment of systems of food storage and (3) Establishment of early warning systems. Government policy should focus on the development of these adaption options where they are not currently being pursued and strengthen those that have already been initiated, such as the mainstreaming of climate change issues in agricultural policy. The analysis of the health sector placed focus on gastroenteritis, schistosomiasis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococal meningitis, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and malnutrition. The results obtained for the A2 and B2 scenarios demonstrate the potential for climate change to add a substantial burden to the health system in the future, a factor that will further compound the country’s vulnerability to other anticipated impacts of climate change. Specifically, it was determined that the overall Value of Statistical Lives impacts were higher under the A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. A number of adaptation cost assumptions were employed to determine the damage cost estimates using benefit-cost analysis. The benefit-cost analysis suggests that expenditure on monitoring and information provision would be a highly efficient step in managing climate change and subsequent increases in disease incidence. Various locations in the world have developed forecasting systems for dengue fever and other vector-borne diseases that could be mirrored and implemented. Combining such macro-level policies with inexpensive micro-level behavioural changes may have the potential for pre-empting the re-establishment of dengue fever and other vector-borne epidemic cycles in Saint Lucia. Although temperature has the probability of generating significant excess mortality for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, the power of temperature to increase mortality largely depends on the education of the population about the harmful effects of increasing temperatures and on the existing incidence of these two diseases. For these diseases it is also suggested that a mix of macro-level efforts and micro-level behavioural changes can be employed to relieve at least part of the threat that climate change poses to human health. The same principle applies for water and food-borne diseases, with the improvement of sanitation infrastructure complementing the strengthening of individual hygiene habits. The results regarding the tourism sector imply that the tourism climatic index was likely to experience a significant downward shift in Saint Lucia under the A2 as well as the B2 scenario, indicative of deterioration in the suitability of the island for tourism. It is estimated that this shift in tourism features could cost Saint Lucia about 5 times the 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. In addition to changes in climatic suitability for tourism, climate change is also likely to have important supply-side effects on species, ecosystems and landscapes. Two broad areas are: (1) coral reefs, due to their intimate link to tourism, and, (2) land loss, as most hotels tend to lie along the coastline. The damage related to coral reefs was estimated at US$3.4 billion (3.6 times GDP in 2009) under the A2 scenario and US$1.7 billion (1.6 times GDP in 2009) under the B2 scenario. The damage due to land loss arising from sea level rise was estimated at US$3.5 billion (3.7 times GDP) under the A2 scenario and US$3.2 billion (3.4 times GDP) under the B2 scenario. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 9 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. Using benefit-cost analyses 3 options with positive ratios were put forward: (1) increased recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (2) enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and, (3) deployment of artificial reefs or other fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit-cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits. These include the employment of an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climate realities.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the agriculture sector in Trinidad And Tobago

The economic impact of climate change on root crop, fisheries and vegetable production for Trinidad and Tobago under the A2 and B2 scenarios were modeled, relative to a baseline ―no climate change‖ case, where the mean temperature and rainfall for a base period of 1980 – 2000 was assumed for the years up to 2050. Production functions were used, using ARMA specifications to correct for serial autocorrelation. For the A2 scenarios, rainfall is expected to fall by approximately 10% relative to the baseline case in the 2020s, but is expected to rise thereafter, until by the 2040s rainfall rises slightly above the mean for the baseline case. For the B2 scenario, rainfall rose slightly above the mean for the baseline case in the current decade, but falls steadily thereafter to approximately 15% by the 2040s. Over the same period, temperature is expected to increase by 1.34C and 1.37C under A2 and B2 respectively. It is expected that any further increase in rainfall should have a deleterious effect on root crop production as a whole, since the above mentioned crops represent the majority of the root crops included in the study. Further expected increases in temperature will result in the ambient temperature being very close to the optimal end of the range for most of these crops. By 2050, the value of yield cumulative losses (2008$) for root crops is expected to be approximately 248.8 million USD under the A2 scenario and approximately 239.4 million USD under the B2 scenario. Relative to the 2005 catch for fish, there will be a decrease in catch potential of 10 - 20% by 2050 relative to 2005 catch potentials, other things remaining constant. By 2050 under the A2 and B2 scenarios, losses in real terms were estimated to be 160.2 million USD and 80.1 million USD respectively, at a 1% discount rate. For vegetables, the mean rainfall exceeds the optimal rainfall range for sweet peppers, hot peppers and melongene. However, while the optimal rainfall level for tomatoes is 3000mm/yr, other vegetables such as sweet peppers, hot peppers and ochroes have very low rainfall requirements (as low as 300 mm/yr). Therefore it is expected that any further decrease in rainfall should have a mixed effect on individual vegetable production. It is expected that any further increase in temperature should have a mixed effect on individual vegetable production, though model results indicated that as a group, an increase in temperature should have a positive impact on vegetable production. By 2050, the value of yield cumulative gains (2008$) for vegetables is expected to be approximately 54.9 million USD under the A2 scenario and approximately 49.1 million USD under the B2 scenario, given a 1% discount rate. For root crops, fisheries and vegetables combined, the cumulative loss under A2 is calculated as approximately 352.8 million USD and approximately 270.8 million USD under B2 by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively by 2050. Sea Level Rise (SLR) by 2050 is estimated to be 0.255 m under A2 and 0.215 m under B2. GIS estimation indicated that for a 0.255 m sea level rise, combined with a 0.5 m high tide, there would be no permanent inundation of agricultural land in Trinidad. The total inundation area is 1.18 km2. This occurs only in the Caroni Watershed, on the western coast of Trinidad, and the areas are outside the Caroni Swamp. Even with an additional rise of 0.5 m to simulate a high rainfall event, the estimated inundated area is 4.67 km2, but with no permanent inundation, though likely to be subject to flooding. Based on eleven (11) evaluation criteria, the top potential adaptation options were identified: 1. Use of water saving irrigation systems and water management systems e.g. drip irrigation; 2. Mainstream climate change issues into agricultural management; 3. Repair/maintain existing dams; 4. Alter crop calendar for short-term crops; 5. Adopt improved technologies for soil conservation; 6. Establish systems of food storage; 7. Promote water conservation – install on-farm water harvesting off roof tops; 8. Design and implement holistic water management plans for all competing uses; 9. Build on- farm water storage (ponds and tanks); 10. Agricultural drainage; and 11. Installation of greenhouses. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the Benefit-Cost Ratio are: (1) Build on- farm water storage such as ponds and tanks (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Water Harvesting. However, the options with the highest net benefits are, (in order of priority): (1) Build on- farm water storage such as ponds and tanks, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Use of drip irrigation. Based on the area burnt in Trinidad and Tobago between 2005 and 2009, the average annual loss due to fires is 1717.3 ha. At US$17.41 per carbon credit, this implies that for the total land lost to forest fires on average each year, the opportunity cost of carbon credit revenue is 74.3 million USD. If a teak reforestation programme is undertaken in Trinidad and Tobago, the net benefit of reforestation under a carbon credit programme would be 69 million USD cumulatively to 2050.

Modelo OLAM (ocean-land-atmosphere-model): descrição, aplicações, e perspectivas

O modelo OLAM foi desenvolvido com objetivo de estender a capacidade de representar os fenômenos de escala global e regional simultaneamente. Este modelo apresenta inovações quanto aos processos dinâmicos, configuração de grade, estrutura de memória e técnicas de solução numérica das equações prognósticas. As equações de Navier-Stokes são resolvidas através da técnica de volumes finitos que conservam massa, momento e energia. No presente trabalho, apresenta-se uma descrição sucinta do OLAM e alguns resultados de sua aplicação em simulações climáticas da precipitação mensal para a região norte da América do Sul, bem como em rodadas para previsão numérica de tempo regional. Os resultados mostram que o modelo consegue representar bem os aspectos meteorológicos de grande escala. Em geral, seu desempenho melhora quando são adotadas grades de maior resolução espacial, nas quais se verificam melhorias significativas tanto na estimativa da precipitação mensal regional, quanto na previsão numérica de tempo.

Precolumbian land use and settlement pattern in the Santarém region, lower Amazon

Uma das áreas mais promissoras para o estudo das sociedades pré-colombianas complexas na bacia do rio Amazonas é a área do baixo curso dos rios Tapajós, Trombetas e Nhamundá. Há relatos escritos sobre os Konduri e os Tapajós, apresentando informações sobre a sua organização social regional, padrões de comércio, a abundância de alimentos, e o mundo material. Assim, evidências arqueológicas – sítios imensos, solos antrópicos, e belos artefatos – podem ser contrastadas com a informação escrita. Estes ricos depósitos culturais estão desaparecendo a um ritmo alarmante, à medida em que os centros urbanos crescem e se expande a agricultura na região. Apesar desta situação, pouca pesquisa arqueológica tem sido realizada na área, especialmente quando se trata de investigar os antigos padrões de assentamento e redes de trocas. Nos últimos anos, temos realizado pesquisas na bacia do baixo rio Tapajós. O registro arqueológico indica que a cerâmica mostrando forte semelhança estilística forte com a encontrada no grande sítio central está espalhada por pelo menos 90 quilômetros ao sul da presente cidade de Santarém. Este artigo apresenta os resultados de uma pesquisa regional realizada nas proximidades de Santarém, no planalto de Belterra e Alter do Chão, oferecendo uma análise preliminar do sistema de assentamentos na região.

Análise dos sistemas ambientais do Alto Rio Claro - Sudoeste de Goiás: contribuição ao planejamento e gestão

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Pervasive transition of the Brazilian land-use system

Agriculture, deforestation, greenhouse gas emissions and local/regional climate change have been closely intertwined in Brazil. Recent studies show that this relationship has been changing since the mid 2000s, with the burgeoning intensification and commoditization of Brazilian agriculture. On one hand, this accrues considerable environmental dividends including a pronounced reduction in deforestation (which is becoming decoupled from agricultural production), resulting in a decrease of similar to 40% in nationwide greenhouse gas emissions since 2005, and a potential cooling of the climate at the local scale. On the other hand, these changes in the land-use system further reinforce the long-established inequality in land ownership, contributing to rural-urban migration that ultimately fuels haphazard expansion of urban areas. We argue that strong enforcement of sector-oriented policies and solving long-standing land tenure problems, rather than simply waiting for market self-regulation, are key steps to buffer the detrimental effects of agricultural intensification at the forefront of a sustainable pathway for land use in Brazil.

Implications of stillage land disposal: A critical review on the impacts of fertigation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Water productivity of different land uses in watersheds assessed from satellite imagery Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

RB34-71 Effects of Inflation and Deflation Upon Nebraska Agriculture, 1914 to 1932

Nebraska farmers prospered during the period which followed the depression of the nineties and preceded the beginning of the World War. To be sure the prosperity was not uniformly distributed either by years or by areas. The corn crop was unusually short in a large portion of the state in 1901 and an almost total failure in many of the southern counties in 1913. Chinch bugs did considerable injury in 1901 and the Hessian fly in 1905 and 1914. There was noticeable damage from insects in some areas in other years. No part of the state, however, suffered from long-continued drouth or repeated ravages of insect pests. The depression of 1907 affected credit and prices very severly for a few months, but recovery was rapid and within less than a year business was again moving forward. This 1934 research bulletin covers the problems of inflation and deflation; changes in the prices of various commodities during inflation and deflation; prices and purchasing power of Nebraska farm products, 1914 to 1932; adjustments during inflation and deflation; the effect of wages on Nebraska agriculture; taxes; Nebraska farm income; changes in types of farming in Nebraska, 1914 to 1932; the banking situation; Nebraska farm land prices; and the effects of inflation and deflation upon Nebraska businesses.

Land Use and Transfer Plans in the U.S. Great Plains

In the next decades, aging farmers in the United States will make decisions that affect almost 1 billion acres of land. The future of this land will become more uncertain as farm transfer becomes more difficult, potentially changing the structure of agriculture through farm consolidation, changes in farm ownership and management, or taking land out of production. The Great Plains Population and Environment Project interviewed farmers and their spouses between 1997 and 1999. Farm Family Survey participants were ambiguous about their plans to leave farming, transfer land to others, and even long-term land use, largely due to concerns about the continued economic viability of farming. Participants living far from metropolitan areas expected to sell or rent to other farmers, while those near residential real-estate markets expected to sell to developers. Delays in planning for retirement and succession were common, further threatening the success of intergenerational transitions.

The Land Grant University Movement and IANR: Animal Science Seminar Series

"The problems that exist in the world today cannot be solved by the level of thinking we were at when we created them." That quote, attributed to Albert Einstein, epitomizes for me the importance of land grant universities in the 21 st century, and whenever I hear someone say that land grants are obsolete - which, occasionally, I do hear - I want to pull that quote out and say "here - read this." When all the problems in the world have been solved, then - and only then - will land grant universities be obsolete. Maybe. I'm not really willing to commit to the idea that the day of obsolete land grants ever will come, but if all the problems in the world are one day solved, then maybe - maybe - I'd consider it.

The Land Grant University Movement and the Future of IANR UAAD

Good afternoon. It is a real pleasure for me to be here with you today, and I thank you for inviting me. I also, as I begin my remarks today, want to thank each of you for the work you do, everyday, to help make this a better university. Please know that work is both valued and appreciated. I'd like to talk with you about a couple of topics today, and after that I'm going to open the floor for questions and comments. I look forward to hearing what you have to say, too. The first topic I'm going to talk about in the next few minutes is our land grant mission. People who know me at all can tell you I am passionate about land grants because I believe being part of a land grant university and helping to advance the land grant mission is one of the great privileges and responsibilities of our times.

Agriculture Builders of Nebraska, Inc. Annual Meeting

Those of us in the Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources at your land-grant university view ourselves as partners with Nebraska. Taking the resources of this great university to the citizens of our state is a mission we take very, very seriously. We work hard to apply the university's resources in a diverse number of ways to benefit Nebraska. Today it is my very great pleasure to have this opportunity to provide a brief report to you, our partners, on some of the ways we are returning your investment in us to benefit our state.

RP979-56 Long-Term Installment Land Contracts

The installment land contract is both an instrument of transfer and a method of financing sales of land. If properly drawn, it can have a number of advantages for both the buyer and seller. Both parties should contact their attorneys to be sure that the terms of the contract are clearly stated and understood. This research publication discusses how long-term installment land contracts are used in the agricultural community.