Effects of treatment, awareness and condom use in a coinfection model for HIV and HCV in MSM

We develop a new a coinfection model for hepatitis C virus (HCV) and the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). We consider treatment for both diseases, screening, unawareness and awareness of HIV infection, and the use of condoms. We study the local stability of the disease-free equilibria for the full model and for the two submodels (HCV only and HIV only submodels). We sketch bifurcation diagrams for different parameters, such as the probabilities that a contact will result in a HIV or an HCV infection. We present numerical simulations of the full model where the HIV, HCV and double endemic equilibria can be observed. We also show numerically the qualitative changes of the dynamical behavior of the full model for variation of relevant parameters. We extrapolate the results from the model for actual measures that could be implemented in order to reduce the number of infected individuals.

Cournot duopoly with competition in the R&D expenditures

We present a new R&D investment in a Cournot Duopoly model and we analyze the different possible types of Nash R&D investments. We observe that the new production costs region can be decomposed in three economical regions, depending on the Nash R&D investment, showing the relevance of the use of patents in new technologies.

The ABC model for telework in Portugal

The principal aim of this paper is to develop a simple and objective model which can classify an systematise telework, and provide a standard for Portugal. This model defines special concepts of telework and allows the division of the activity in this area, making its application easier. The model was constructed on the basis of four perspectives which it has to cover: the economic and social, of the employers, of the teleworkers and the suppliers of goods and services.

A Communication Intervention for Training Southern European Oncologists to Recognize Psychosocial Morbidity in Cancer. I - Development of the Model and Preliminary Results on Physicians' Satisfaction

BACKGROUND: The detection of psychosocial distress is a significant communication problem in Southern Europe and other countries. Work in this area is hampered by a lack of data. Because not much is known about training aimed at improving the recognition of psychosocial disorders in cancer patients, we developed a basic course model for medical oncology professionals. METHODS: A specific educational and experiential model (12 hours divided into 2 modules) involving formal teaching (ie, journal articles, large-group presentations), practice in small groups (ie, small-group exercises and role playing), and discussion in large groups was developed with the aim of improving the ability of oncologists to detect emotional disturbances in cancer patients (ie, depression, anxiety, and adjustment disorders). RESULTS: A total of 30 oncologists from 3 Southern European countries (Italy, Portugal, and Spain) participated in the workshop. The training course was well accepted by most participants who expressed general satisfaction and a positive subjective perception of the utility of the course for clinical practice. Of the total participants, 28 physicians (93.3%) thought that had they been exposed to this material sooner, they would have incorporated the techniques received in the workshop into their practices; 2 participants stated they would likely have done so. Half of the doctors (n = 15) believed that their clinical communication techniques were improved by participating in the workshop, and the remaining half thought that their abilities to communicate with cancer patients had improved. CONCLUSIONS: This model is a feasible approach for oncologists and is easily applicable to various oncology settings. Further studies will demonstrate the effectiveness of this method for improving oncologists skills in recognizing emotional disorders in their patients with cancer.

Modeling in-Hospital Patient Survival During the First 28 Days After Intensive Care Unit Admission: a Prognostic Model for Clinical Trials in General Critically Ill Patients

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to develop a model for estimating patient 28-day in-hospital mortality using 2 different statistical approaches. DESIGN: The study was designed to develop an outcome prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality using (a) logistic regression with random effects and (b) a multilevel Cox proportional hazards model. SETTING: The study involved 305 intensive care units (ICUs) from the basic Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3 cohort. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n = 17138) were from the SAPS 3 database with follow-up data pertaining to the first 28 days in hospital after ICU admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The database was divided randomly into 5 roughly equal-sized parts (at the ICU level). It was thus possible to run the model-building procedure 5 times, each time taking four fifths of the sample as a development set and the remaining fifth as the validation set. At 28 days after ICU admission, 19.98% of the patients were still in the hospital. Because of the different sampling space and outcome variables, both models presented a better fit in this sample than did the SAPS 3 admission score calibrated to vital status at hospital discharge, both on the general population and in major subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Both statistical methods can be used to model the 28-day in-hospital mortality better than the SAPS 3 admission model. However, because the logistic regression approach is specifically designed to forecast 28-day mortality, and given the high uncertainty associated with the assumption of the proportionality of risks in the Cox model, the logistic regression approach proved to be superior.

Optimal Cut-Off Value for Homeostasis Model Assessment (HOMA) Index of Insulin-Resistance in a Population of Patients Admitted Electively in a Portuguese Cardiology Ward

INTRODUCTION: Insulin resistance is the pathophysiological key to explain metabolic syndrome. Although clearly useful, the Homeostasis Model Assessment index (an insulin resistance measurement) hasn't been systematically applied in clinical practice. One of the main reasons is the discrepancy in cut-off values reported in different populations. We sought to evaluate in a Portuguese population the ideal cut-off for Homeostasis Model Assessment index and assess its relationship with metabolic syndrome. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We selected a cohort of individuals admitted electively in a Cardiology ward with a BMI < 25 Kg/m2 and no abnormalities in glucose metabolism (fasting plasma glucose < 100 mg/dL and no diabetes). The 90th percentile of the Homeostasis Model Assessment index distribution was used to obtain the ideal cut-off for insulin resistance. We also selected a validation cohort of 300 individuals (no exclusion criteria applied). RESULTS: From 7 000 individuals, and after the exclusion criteria, there were left 1 784 individuals. The 90th percentile for Homeostasis Model Assessment index was 2.33. In the validation cohort, applying that cut-off, we have 49.3% of individuals with insulin resistance. However, only 69.9% of the metabolic syndrome patients had insulin resistance according to that cut-off. By ROC curve analysis, the ideal cut-off for metabolic syndrome is 2.41. Homeostasis Model Assessment index correlated with BMI (r = 0.371, p < 0.001) and is an independent predictor of the presence of metabolic syndrome (OR 19.4, 95% CI 6.6 - 57.2, p < 0.001). DISCUSSION: Our study showed that in a Portuguese population of patients admitted electively in a Cardiology ward, 2.33 is the Homeostasis Model Assessment index cut-off for insulin resistance and 2.41 for metabolic syndrome. CONCLUSION: Homeostasis Model Assessment index is directly correlated with BMI and is an independent predictor of metabolic syndrome.

Invasive Assessment of the Coronary Microcirculation Using the Index of Microcirculatory Resistance: Description and Validation of an Animal Model

INTRODUCTION: The index of microcirculatory resistance (IMR) enables/provides quantitative, invasive, and real-time assessment of coronary microcirculation status. AIMS: The primary aim of this study was to validate the assessment of IMR in a large animal model, and the secondary aim was to compare two doses of intracoronary papaverine, 5 and 10 mg, for induction of maximal hyperemia and its evolution over time. METHODS: Measurements of IMR were performed in eight pigs. Mean distal pressure (Pd) and mean transit time (Tmn) were measured at rest and at maximal hyperemia induced with intracoronary papaverine, 5 and 10 mg, and after 2, 5, 8 and 10 minutes. Disruption of the microcirculation was achieved by selective injection of 40-μm microspheres via a microcatheter in the left anterior descending artery. RESULTS: In each animal 14 IMR measurements were made. There were no differences between the two doses of papaverine regarding Pd response and IMR values - 11 ± 4.5 U with 5 mg and 10.6 ± 3 U with 10 mg (p=0.612). The evolution of IMR over time was also similar with the two doses, with significant differences from resting values disappearing after five minutes of intracoronary papaverine administration. IMR increased with disrupted microcirculation in all animals (41 ± 16 U, p=0.001). CONCLUSIONS: IMR provides invasive and real-time assessment of coronary microcirculation. Disruption of the microvascular bed is associated with a significant increase in IMR. A 5-mg dose of intracoronary papaverine is as effective as a 10-mg dose in inducing maximal hyperemia. After five minutes of papaverine administration there is no significant difference from resting hemodynamic status.

Intracoronary Delivery of Human Mesenchymal/Stromal Stem Cells: Insights from Coronary Microcirculation Invasive Assessment in a Swine Model

BACKGROUND: Mesenchymal stem/stromal cells have unique properties favorable to their use in clinical practice and have been studied for cardiac repair. However, these cells are larger than coronary microvessels and there is controversy about the risk of embolization and microinfarctions, which could jeopardize the safety and efficacy of intracoronary route for their delivery. The index of microcirculatory resistance (IMR) is an invasive method for quantitatively assessing the coronary microcirculation status. OBJECTIVES: To examine heart microcirculation after intracoronary injection of mesenchymal stem/stromal cells with the index of microcirculatory resistance. METHODS: Healthy swine were randomized to receive by intracoronary route either 30x106 MSC or the same solution with no cells (1% human albumin/PBS) (placebo). Blinded operators took coronary pressure and flow measurements, prior to intracoronary infusion and at 5 and 30 minutes post-delivery. Coronary flow reserve (CFR) and the IMR were compared between groups. RESULTS: CFR and IMR were done with a variance within the 3 transit time measurements of 6% at rest and 11% at maximal hyperemia. After intracoronary infusion there were no significant differences in CFR. The IMR was significantly higher in MSC-injected animals (at 30 minutes, 14.2U vs. 8.8U, p = 0.02) and intragroup analysis showed a significant increase of 112% from baseline to 30 minutes after cell infusion, although no electrocardiographic changes or clinical deterioration were noted. CONCLUSION: Overall, this study provides definitive evidence of microcirculatory disruption upon intracoronary administration of mesenchymal stem/stromal cells, in a large animal model closely resembling human cardiac physiology, function and anatomy.

Transitional dynamics of an endogenous growth model with an erosion effect

The convergence features of an Endogenous Growth model with Physical capital, Human Capital and R&D have been studied. We add an erosion effect (supported by empirical evidence) to this model, and fully characterize its convergence properties. The dynamics is described by a fourth-order system of differential equations. We show that the model converges along a one-dimensional stable manifold and that its equilibrium is saddle-path stable. We also argue that one of the implications of considering this “erosion effect” is the increase in the adherence of the model to data.

A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

Proteomic analysis of a neurodegeneration cell model, treated with plant extracts with potential neuroprotective activity

Nowadays, a significant increase in chronic diseases is observed. Epidemiological studies showed a consistent relationship between the consumption of fruits and vegetables and a reduced risk of certain chronic diseases, namely neurodegenerative disorders. One factor common to these diseases is oxidative stress, which is highly related with proteins, lipids, carbohydrates and nucleic acids damage, leading to cellular dysfunction. Polyphenols, highly abundant in berries and associated products, were described as having antioxidant properties, with beneficial effect in these pathologies. The aims of this study were to evaluate by proteomic analyses the effect of oxidative insult in a neuroblastoma cell line (SK-N-MC) and understand the mechanisms involved in the neuroprotective effects of digested extracts from commercial and wild blackberry (R. vagabundus Samp.). The analysis of the total proteome by two-dimensional electrophoresis revealed that oxidative stress in SK-N-MC cells resulted in altered expression of 12 protein spots from a total of 318. Regarding some redox proteomics alterations, particularly proteins carbonylation and glutathionylation, protein carbonyl alterations during stress suggest that cells produce an early and late response; on the other hand, no glutathionylated polypeptides were detected. Relatively to the incubation of SK-N-MC cells with digested berry extracts, commercial blackberry promotes more changes in protein pattern of these cells than R. vagabundus. From 9 statistically different protein spots of cells incubated with commercial blackberry, only β-tubulin and GRP 78 were until now identified by mass spectrometry. Further studies involving the selection of sub proteomes will be necessary to have a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying the neuroprotective effects of berries.

Appreciating the power of words and imaginative organizing: A triadic model of ethics practiced in everyday conversations

This thesis provides an alternative framework to analyze power and ethics practiced in everyday conversations, which constitute processes of organizing. Drawing upon narrative frameworks, the analyses of messages posted on an online message board demonstrate people’s imaginative capacity to create relevant stories, in respect of their precise grasp of factual understandings, contextual relevance and evaluative/moral appropriateness, by appropriating others’ words. Based on the empirical analyses, the thesis indicates that studies on power and ethics in organizations can be re-oriented towards appreciating irremediable power imbalances by offering alternative ways of member’s denoting experiences of power.

Low coronary perfusion pressure is associated with endocardial fibrosis in a rat model of volume overload cardiac hypertrophy

Left ventricular hypertrophy following volume overload is regarded as an example of cardiac remodeling without increased fibrosis accumulation. However, infarction is associated with increased fibrosis within the noninfarcted, hypertrophied myocardium, particularly in the subendocardial regions. It is conceivable to suppose that, as also occurs postinfarction, low coronary driving pressure may also interfere with accumulation of myocardial fibrosis following aortocaval fistula. PURPOSE: To investigate the role of acute hemodynamic changes in subsequent deposition of cardiac fibrosis in response to aortocaval fistula. METHOD: Aortocaval fistula were created in 4 groups of Wistar rats that were followed over 4 and 8 weeks: aortocaval fistula 4 and aortocaval fistula 8 (10 rats each) and their respective controls (sham-operated controls - Sh), Sh4 and Sh8 (8 rats each). Hemodynamic measurements were performed 1 week after surgery. Hypertrophy and fibrosis were quantified by myocyte diameter and collagen volume fraction at the end of follow up. RESULT: Compared with Sh4 and Sh8, pulse pressure, left ventricular end-diastolic pressure, and +dP/dt were higher in aortocaval fistula 4 and aortocaval fistula 8, but -dP/dt was similar. Coronary driving pressure (mm Hg), used as an estimate of perfusion pressure, was lower in aortocaval fistula 8 (52.6 ± 4.1) than in Sh8 (100.8 ± 1.3), but comparable between aortocaval fistula 4 (50.0 ± 8.9) and Sh4 (84.8 ± 2.3). Myocyte diameter was greater in aortocaval fistula 8, whereas interstitial and subendocardial fibrosis were greater in aortocaval fistula 4 and aortocaval fistula 8. Coronary driving pressure correlated inversely and independently with subendocardial fibrosis (r² = .86, P <.001), whereas left ventricular systolic pressure (r² = 0.73, P = .004) and end-diastolic pressure (r² = 0.55, P = 012) correlated positively and independently with interstitial fibrosis. CONCLUSION: Coronary driving pressure falls and ventricular pressures increase early after aortocaval fistula and are associated with subsequent myocardial fibrosis deposition.

PALEOENVIRONMENTAL MODEL FOR THE LATE CENOZOIC OF SOUTHWESTERN AMAZONIA: PALEONTOLOGY AND GEOLOGY

Our study provides paleontological and geological data substantiating a paleoenvironmental model for the upper Miocene-Pliocene of Southwestern Amazonia. The extensive Late Tertiary sediments of The Solimões Formation, outcropping in Southwestern Amazonia, were deposited by a complex megafan system, originating in the high Peruvian Andes. The megafan system was the sedimentological response to the Andean Quechua tectonic phase of Tertiary age, producing sediments that fdled the foreland basin of Southwestern Amazonia. Occurrences of varied vertebrate fossil assemblages of the Huayquerian-Montehermosan Mammal age collected in these sediments support this interpretation. The fauna includes several genera and species of fishes, reptiles, birds, mammals and appears to be one that could have lived in or near a riverine habitat. In the Late Pliocene, the megafan system became inactive as a result of the influence of the Diaguita Tectonical Phase.

A spatial multicriteria model for urban accessibility mapping

Accessibility is nowadays an important issue for the development of cities. It is seen as a priority in order toguarantee equal access to fundamental rights, to improve the quality of life of citizens and to ensure that everyone, regardless of age, mobility or ability, have equal access to all the resources and benefits cities have to offer. Consequently, factors closely related to the accessibility have gained a higher relevance for identifying and assessing the location of urban facilities. The main goal of the paper is to present an accessibility evaluation model applied in Santarém, in Brazil, a city located midway between the larger cities of Belem and Manaus. The research instruments, sampling method and data analysis proposed for mapping urban accessibility are described. Daily activities were used to identify and group key destinations. The model was implemented within a geographic information system and integrates the individualâ s perspective through the definition of each key destination weight, reflecting their significance for daily activities in the urban area. Accessibility to key destinations was mapped over 24 districts of the city of Santarém. The results of this model application can support city administration decision-making for new investments in order to improve urban quality of life.