Strategic Bidding in Electricity Markets: An agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.

Metalearner based on Dynamic Neural Network for Strategic Bidding in electricity Markets

The restructuring of electricity markets, conducted to increase the competition in this sector, and decrease the electricity prices, brought with it an enormous increase in the complexity of the considered mechanisms. The electricity market became a complex and unpredictable environment, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. Software tools became, therefore, essential to provide simulation and decision support capabilities, in order to potentiate the involved players’ actions. This paper presents the development of a metalearner, applied to the decision support of electricity markets’ negotiation entities. The proposed metalearner executes a dynamic artificial neural network to create its own output, taking advantage on several learning algorithms implemented in ALBidS, an adaptive learning system that provides decision support to electricity markets’ players. The proposed metalearner considers different weights for each strategy, depending on its individual quality of performance. The results of the proposed method are studied and analyzed in scenarios based on real electricity markets’ data, using MASCEM - a multi-agent electricity market simulator that simulates market players’ operation in the market.

Talk on water ecological economics and participatory watershed governance

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Ambiente pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Industry level foresight: designing foresight methods for Lithuanian energy sector

Enterprise and Work Innovation Studies,6,IET, pp.9-51

Strategic Drivers for Implementing Sustainability Programs in Portuguese Organizations– Let’s Listen to Aristotle: From Triple to Quadruple Bottom Line

This article describes a study that investigated the main strategic drivers that influence the implementation of sustainability/social responsibility programs. An online survey was administered to managers of Portuguese organizations with certified management systems. The findings suggest that the implementation of such programs is mainly correlated to: 1.) the approach to understanding and working toward the satisfaction of the community’s needs (in the broad sense of social responsibility); 2.) how systematically sustainability within the organization is identified and managed (e.g., pollution prevention, improved environmental performance, and compliance with the applicable environmental laws); and 3.) the degree to which the organization tries to understand the needs of the employees and works toward satisfying them. In addition to the survey, five interviews with top managers of the surveyed organizations provided some useful insights. There was no consensus on the meaning of sustainability and social responsibility: some described it as an instrumental approach for obtaining better organizational results, while others regarded it as the right thing to do (i.e., it is values driven). In all cases, however, the managers supported a kind of umbrella construct under which different size corporations use different models (for example, the Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI), Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), ISO 14001 environmental management systems), although some managers reported that they simply do not know what to do. All of those surveyed agreed that the lack of a systematic approach could represent a major threat to their organization, making them willing to pay more attention and take more action on the issue of sustainability. An additional suggestion made by managers was to change from a triple bottom line (economic dimension, environmental dimension, social equity dimension) to a quadruple bottom line by adding another dimension: personal and family happiness. This fourth dimension was recognized by the Greek philosopher/thinker Aristotle (384-322 BCE) who thought of happiness as the highest good (virtue) and ultimate goal and purpose of life, achieved through living well, in harmony. Such harmony suggests a balance and a lack of excess—in other words a sustainable existence.

Contratualização interna vs. contratualização ext

RESUMO - Independentemente do modelo jurídico adoptado para os hospitais é necessário introduzir políticas de gestão estratégicas e adoptar instrumentos que permitam uma melhoria efectiva dos processos de gestão organizacional. A implementação de um modelo de contratualização interna que se traduza na transposição dos compromissos assumidos externamente para o interior da organização e, consequentemente, a sua desagregação pelos diferentes níveis de gestão, permite alcançar um alinhamento cada vez maior entre os objectivos contratualizados externamente e a missão das instituições de saúde. No presente estudo pretendeu-se identificar o estado de arte relativamente à contratualização interna numa amostra representativa das unidades hospitalares portuguesas, tendo-se concluído pela identificação de acções a desenvolver para servir de suporte à sua efectiva adopção.--------------------------ABSTRACT – Despite legal framework applied on hospitals, it is essential to develop and launch a set of management and strategic policies, as well as to adopt instruments that can grant an effective improvement to organizational management processes. The implementation of a «management by objectives model» that will carry external commitments the organization and therefore its splitting through the different management levels, will provide a higher alignment between the objectives externally agreed and the mission of health institutions. The goal of this study, is to identify the «management by objectives» state of the art on a representative sample of the Portuguese hospital units, as well as to identify the actions nece

Órgão de governação de topo do hospital público português : estrutura e constituição

RESUMO - Pretende-se com este projecto fazer uma reflexão sobre a problemática dos modelos de governação na gestão pública de hospitais e sobre a forma de incrementar a capacidade estratégica da gestão, contextualizando a governação dos hospitais num quadro mais amplo e comunitário, integrando os interesses e expectativas dos diversos interessados no funcionamento dos hospitais públicos. Sinteticamente, a questão fundamental de investigação é: Como conseguirá o sistema de governação de um hospital público incorporar os interesses de todos os seus stakeholders e shareholders? A resposta a esta questão integra duas fases, uma primeira dedicada ao estudo de um novo modelo de configuração para o órgão de governação de topo do hospital público e uma segunda fase dedicada à construção de um questionário para discussão e validação do modelo proposto através da técnica Delphi. A metodologia utilizada passou pela condução prévia de entrevistas exploratórias a informadores privilegiados e pela divisão do projecto em duas partes – uma primeira parte de enquadramento que segue a metodologia clássica da revisão bibliográfica e uma segunda parte prática que segue a metodologia Delphi, precedida de um levantamento das questões críticas para integrar no questionário que servirá de base à discussão dos peritos. Como resultado, o actual modelo pareceu-nos dificultar a consideração das expectativas e dos interesses dos proprietários/accionistas e dos stakeholders em geral do hospital público, concluindo-se pela necessidade de um novo modelo que estabeleça, inequivocamente, os papéis e as funções inerentes ao órgão de governação, garantindo a internalização da perspectiva de todos os interessados. -------------------------------ABSTRACT - The objective of this project is to reflect on the problematic of models of governance in the public management of hospitals and on the means for incrementing strategic management capacity. It does so by contextualizing the governance of public hospitals on a more ample community–wide scale, integrating the interests and expectations of different parties. The main research question is: how can the system of governance of a public hospital incorporate the interests of all its stakeholders and shareholders? The answer to this question involves two phases, one dedicated to the study of the configuration of the top-level governing body of the public hospital and, a second, dedicated to the construction of a questionnaire for discussion and validation of the proposed model by means of a Delphi technique. The methodology involved, first of all, exploratory interviews with key- informants and by the structuring of the project in two parts – the first, dedicated to contextualization by means of a standard literature review and the second, essentially practical by means of the Delphi technique, preceded by the raising of critical questions that integrate the questionnaire that will form the basis of expert discussion. The present model of public hospital governance appears to limit the possibility of integrating the expectations and interests of stakeholders and owner/shareholders. It is concluded that a new model is needed, one that establishes unequivocally the roles and functions of the top- level governing body, thereby

Strategic trade policy and signaling costs with differentiated goods

We consider a trade policy model, where the costs of the home firm are private information but can be signaled through the output levels of the firm to a foreign competitor and a home policymaker. We compute the separating equilibrium and the Bayesian Nash equilibrium, and we compare the subsidies, firms’ expected profits and home government’s welfare in both equilibria, for different values of the own price effect parameter.

Ambivalent Islam: the identity construction of Muslims under Portuguese colonial rule

This article wishes to contribute to the study of the historical processes that have been spotting Muslim populations as favourite targets for political analysis and governance. Focusing on the Portuguese archives, civil as well as military, the article tries to uncover the most conspicuous identity representations (mainly negative or ambivalent) that members of Portuguese colonial apparatus built around Muslim communities living in African colonies, particularly in Guinea-Bissau and Mozambique. The paper shows how these culturally and politically constructed images were related to the more general strategies by which Portuguese imagined their own national identity, both as ‘European’ and as ‘coloniser’ or ‘imperial people’. The basic assumption of this article is that policies enforced in a context of inter-ethnic and religious competition are better understood when linked to the identity strategies inherent to them. These are conceived as strategic constructions aimed at the preservation, the protection and the imaginary expansion of the subject, who looks for groups to be included in and out-groups to reject, exclude, aggress or eliminate. We think that most of the inter-ethnic relationships and conflicts, as well as the very experience of ethnicity, are born from this identity matrix.

Technology governance in radiology: the example of magnetic resonance imaging

Based on the report for the unit “Project III” of the PhD programme on Technology Assessment in 2011. The unit was supervised by Prof. António B. Moniz (FCT-UNL).

The use of indicators and evidence in governance and policy development of science, technology and innovation

This paper was first presented at the 2012 – EU SPRI Conference “Towards Transformative Governance? - Responses to mission-oriented innovation policy paradigms”, Fraunhofer ISI, June 2012, Karlsruhe

Ambivalent Islam: the identity construction of Muslims under Portuguese colonial rule

This article wishes to contribute to the study of the historical processes that have been spotting Muslim populations as favourite targets for political analysis and governance. Focusing on the Portuguese archives, civil as well as military, the article tries to uncover the most conspicuous identity representations (mainly negative or ambivalent) that members of Portuguese colonial apparatus built around Muslim communities living in African colonies, particularly in Guinea- Bissau and Mozambique. The paper shows how these culturally and politically constructed images were related to the more general strategies by which Portuguese imagined their own national identity, both as ‘European’ and as ‘coloniser’ or ‘imperial people’. The basic assumption of this article is that policies enforced in a context of interethnic and religious competition are better understood when linked to the identity strategies inherent to them. These are conceived as strategic constructions aimed at the preservation, protection and imaginary expansion of the subject, who looks for groups to be included in and out-groups to reject, exclude, aggress or eliminate. The author argues that most of the inter-ethnic relationships and conflicts, as well as the very experience of ethnicity, are born from this identity matrix.

Strategic Noise Mapping with GIS for the Universitat Jaume I Smart Campus: best methodology practices

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.